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美国已经追不上中国?华尔街巨头得出结论:中国的重心正在改变
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 02:57
Core Insights - The narrative surrounding China's economic growth has shifted, with trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries now accounting for nearly half of China's total trade, up from just over 30% a few years ago [2] - China's export growth is increasingly driven by emerging markets, with a significant transformation in export structure from low-value products to electric vehicles, photovoltaic equipment, energy storage products, and AI software systems [4][6] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has led to a significant reduction in tariffs, boosting trade within the region to over 2.5 trillion RMB [7] Trade Dynamics - U.S. companies are facing challenges in reducing reliance on China, as many products shipped from Southeast Asia and Mexico are still produced by Chinese firms operating overseas [9] - China has shifted its soybean imports from the U.S. to Brazil and Argentina, highlighting the strategic importance of its agricultural and technological sectors [11] - China's semiconductor self-sufficiency is projected to reach over 30% by 2025, as the country accelerates its domestic R&D efforts [11] Economic Resilience - China's economy is showing resilience through internal vitality, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of the year [15] - The manufacturing sector is evolving, with high-tech manufacturing accounting for 16.7% of industrial value added, and green energy consumption increasing by approximately 1.7 percentage points [17] - The "new economy" (new industries, new business models) is becoming a significant growth engine, with a projected growth rate of 6.7% in 2024, outpacing overall GDP growth [19] Global Economic Landscape - The global economic landscape is undergoing a transformation, with the dominance of the U.S. dollar gradually weakening, while China's manufacturing and market potential become more pronounced [21] - China's competitive edge is bolstered by its manufacturing resilience, renewable energy advantages, and market potential, positioning it as a leader in the new global economic arena [21]