1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's exports in December 2025 showed strong growth, with the export amount at a historical high and far exceeding market expectations. The root cause lies in the high - cost performance of Chinese goods, which is the result of domestic "involution" and technological progress. The report is optimistic about China's exports [4][6]. - The 10 - year treasury bond target range is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5%. The economic recovery below expectations has been falsified, and the beginning of 2026 may see loose credit and fiscal policies, accelerating the cycle recovery [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 12 - month Import and Export Data Focus - In December 2025, imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year (previous value: 1.9%) and 11.4% month - on - month (1.6%); exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year (5.9%) and 8.3% month - on - month (8.2%); the trade surplus increased by 8.5% year - on - year (14.7%) and 2.2% month - on - month (24.0%). The export amount was at a historical high, far exceeding the median and average forecasts of 16 institutions [3][4]. Reasons for the Exceeding - Expectation Increase in December Export Growth - Product structure: The high - growth of electromechanical and high - tech product exports drove the overall growth. In December 2025, electromechanical product exports increased by 12.2% year - on - year, high - tech product exports by 16.7%, integrated circuits by 47.8%, and the overall automobile by 38.2% [5]. - Export destinations: Exports to non - US regions such as ASEAN and the EU grew strongly, while exports to the US remained sluggish due to the high base. Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Belt and Road countries maintained double - digit growth throughout the year [5]. - Manufacturing PMI: China's manufacturing PMI in December returned above the boom - bust line for the first time since April, indicating an acceleration of manufacturing production activities and an improvement in demand [5]. - Port high - frequency data: The monthly average weekly container throughput of key ports in December increased by 7.2% year - on - year, suggesting high export growth [5]. Market and Bond Market Views - Market: On January 14, the long - term yield first rose and then fell. The exceeding - expectation import and export data had little impact on the yield trend. The long - term yield declined in the afternoon due to the 30 - year treasury bond issuance bidding sentiment and the cooling signal of increasing the margin ratio for equity financing. Attention should be paid to the economic data release on the 19th [7]. - Bond market view: The target range for the 10 - year treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of around 2.5%. The economic recovery below expectations has been falsified, and the beginning of 2026 may see loose credit and fiscal policies, accelerating the cycle recovery. If there are loose monetary policies, it will be a reduction opportunity, similar to 2025. Attention should be paid to whether the PPI month - on - month can remain positive. If inflation rises month - on - month, there is a possibility of tightened funds, and the short - term bond yield will also rise. Real estate is a lagging indicator, and it may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [7].