来源：中国新闻网 在广东省政府举办的东莞专场新闻发布会上，何俊聪介绍，2025年1月至11月，东莞市进出口14361.9亿 元，同比增长14.3%，规模稳居中国第五、广东省第二，领跑省内外重点外贸大市，预计全年进出口规 模将创历史新高。 从结构看，东莞外贸实现了"质"的新跃升。2025年1月至11月，东莞高新技术产品出口3381.1亿元，同 比增长17.2%；电子元件出口1542.3亿元，同比增长12.4%，占全市出口比重17.5%，较2020年同期提升8 个百分点，产品结构不断优化提升；同时，以电动汽车、锂电池、光伏产品为代表的"新三样"出口增长 迅猛，成为新的外贸增长点。 "十四五"期间，东莞有进出口实绩的企业数量增加近万家，特别是民营企业作为外贸"主力军"的地位更 加巩固，占比超过60%。2025年1月至11月，全市民营企业进出口9000亿元，占全市进出口的62.7%，同 比增长20.9%。 东莞作为"世界工厂"的内涵不断迭代升级，助其保持外贸竞争优势。东莞市委常委、常务副市长曾坚朋 表示，在东莞，"万、千、百"亿级产业支柱梯次成型，生产了全球近1/4的智能手机、1/5的毛衣、1/4的 动漫衍生品和中国 ...

据介绍，2025年1月至11月，东莞市进出口14361.9亿元，同比增长14.3%，规模稳居全国第五、广东全 省第二，增速高于全国、全省，领跑省内外重点外贸大市，预计全年进出口规模将创历史新高。 从结构看，东莞外贸实现了"质"的新跃升。2025年1月至11月，东莞高新技术产品出口3381.1亿元，同 比增长17.2%；电子元件出口1542.3亿元，同比增长12.4%，占全市出口比重17.5%，较2020年同期提升8 个百分点，产品结构不断优化提升；同时，以电动汽车、锂电池、光伏产品为代表的"新三样"出口增长 迅猛，成为新的外贸增长点。 "十四五"期间，东莞有进出口实绩的企业数量增加了近万家，特别是民营企业作为外贸"主力军"的地位 更加巩固，占比超过60%。2025年1月至11月，全市民营企业进出口9000亿元，占全市进出口的62.7%， 同比增长20.9%，增幅高于全市6.6个百分点，拉动全市增长12.4个百分点。 "十四五"东莞外贸总额年均保持在1.3万亿元以上 中新网广州12月29日电 (记者 程景伟)广东省人民政府新闻办公室29日在广州举行"'十四五'广东成就"东 莞专场新闻发布会，东莞市商务局党组书记 ...

据悉，今年1月至11月，宿迁已与全球204个国家和地区建立贸易往来，其中对沙特阿拉伯王国进出口额 25.8亿元，同比增长69.3%；对韩国进出口额19.4亿元，同比增长11.4%。下一步，宿迁海关将引导企业 拓展国外市场，全力支持宿迁保税物流中心(B型)做优做强，指导企业用好优惠政策，服务跨境电商等 外贸新业态健康发展，持续激发宿迁外贸活力和发展动力，助力全市外贸经济高质量平稳健康发展。 记者朱婉菁郭斌肖伟伟 宿迁海关依托智慧平台实现"全管全服"，自主开发"出口水生动物联动智慧管理系统"，实现水生动物出 口"全过程管理、全链条监管、全速度通关"，成功将境内运输时间压缩至12小时内。同时，宿迁海关推 行"智能审核+自助打印"模式，原产地证书全流程电子化办理让企业实现"零跑腿+秒出证"。 数据显示，今年1月至11月，宿迁进出口商品结构持续优化。在进口方面，农产品、机电产品、基本有 机化学品的进口额持续增长，其中进口农产品货值25.1亿元，同比增长2.6%；进口机电产品货值14.9亿 元，同比增长47.1%；进口基本有机化学品货值4亿元，同比增长116.8%。在出口方面，高新技术产 品、纺织制品、木制品出口额稳步增 ...

生产型企业增长势头强劲，宿迁全市进出口值超过10亿元的生产型企业共7家，进出口额排名前20的实体企业，贡献了38.1%全市进出口总值。 扬子晚报网12月23日讯(通讯员杨一茗王沼懿记者高峰)记者近日从宿迁海关了解到，2025年1—11月，宿迁市进出口总值532.7亿元，同比(下同)下降 8.9%。其中，出口455.5亿元，下降12.3%；进口77.2亿元，增长18.5%，进口增速全省第一。 今年1—11月，宿迁对沙特阿拉伯、日本、韩国等地区进出口不同程度增长，与全球204个国家和地区有贸易往来。其中，对沙特阿拉伯进出口25.8亿元， 增长69.3%；对日本进出口22.3亿元，增长1.9%；对韩国进出口19.4亿元，增长11.4%。 民营企业仍是宿迁市外贸的主力军，宿迁市有进出口实绩的外贸企业1363家，较去年同期增加37家，增长2.8%，民营企业进出口值473.5亿元，占全市进 出口总值的88.9%。 农产品、机电产品、基本有机化学品进口不同程度增长，进口农产品25.1亿元，增长2.6%，其中进口食品20.4亿元；进口机电产品14.9亿元，增长47.1%； 进口基本有机化学品4.0亿元，增长116.8%。 高 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 17, 2025 - Report Title: Economic Data Review for November 2025 1. Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Most economic indicators continued to weaken in November. Consumption and investment faced significant pressure, and the GDP growth rate in Q4 might slow down compared to Q3. The core contradiction in the current economic operation is the co - existence of the drag from the adjustment of old driving forces and the growth of new driving forces. Real - estate downturn and cautious consumer behavior are short - term constraints, while policy support and industrial upgrading are key supports [2]. - In December, social retail sales still face a high - base pressure from the +3.7% year - on - year growth in December 2024, and the effect of the withdrawal of national subsidies may continue to show. In terms of fixed - asset investment, the decline in real - estate investment has widened, infrastructure investment may be under great fiscal constraint pressure, and only manufacturing upgrading provides support [2]. - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the role of domestic demand, strengthened the main position of enterprise innovation, and added the statement of "increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment" in macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the implementation effect of growth - stabilization policies and the supporting role of high - quality development and new productive forces on the economy [2]. - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. Since the second half of the year, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is dominated by institutional behavior. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a 10BP cut likely in Q1. In the long - term, the 30 - year treasury bond yield is expected to fall below 2% [3]. 3. Summary by Category Consumption - In November, the growth rate of social retail sales continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate has declined for six consecutive months, reaching the lowest single - month level since 2023. From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points lower than from January to October [2]. - The policy to expand service consumption continued to be implemented, and service retail sales continued to grow rapidly. From January to November, the retail sales of cultural, sports, and leisure services continued to grow at a double - digit rate. The national box office revenue increased by 19.5% year - on - year, and the number of moviegoers increased by 20.3% year - on - year [2]. - The year - on - year growth rate of most retail sales of national - subsidy - related categories continued to slow down. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of above - quota household appliances and audio - visual equipment dropped significantly to - 19.4%, 4.8 percentage points lower than in October. The year - on - year retail sales of above - quota furniture decreased by 3.8%, 13.4 percentage points lower than in October [2]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The pressure on fixed - asset investment continued to increase. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment has been weakening for eight consecutive months, with negative growth for three consecutive months and an accelerating decline. The decline in real - estate development investment has widened for nine consecutive months. From January to November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year [2]. - From January to November, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real - estate development investment decreased by 1.1%, increased by 1.9%, and decreased by 15.9% year - on - year respectively, 1.0, 0.8, and 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous period. Infrastructure investment has had negative cumulative year - on - year growth for two consecutive months [2]. - Private investment has had negative cumulative year - on - year growth for six consecutive months. From January to November, the year - on - year decline widened to - 5.3%, 0.8 percentage points lower than from January to October [2]. Foreign Trade - The overall growth rate of imports and exports rebounded significantly. In November, the total value of imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, a significant increase of 4 percentage points from 0.1% in October. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, rebounding from - 0.8% in October. Imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, maintaining growth for six consecutive months [3]. - Trade with the EU and Africa rebounded significantly, while the decline in exports to the US continued to widen. In November, the total trade value with ASEAN increased by 3.3% year - on - year, and exports to ASEAN increased by 8.2%. The total trade value with the EU increased by 10.25% year - on - year, 8.3 percentage points higher than the previous period. Exports to the EU increased by 14.8% year - on - year, a significant rebound of 13.9 percentage points from October [3]. - High - end manufacturing became the core driving force for the rebound. In November, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.65% year - on - year in US dollars, 8.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, and exports of high - tech products increased by 7.68% year - on - year, 5.9 percentage points higher than the previous month [3]. Industrial and Service Sectors - From January to November, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.0% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points lower than from January to October. In November, it increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points lower than in October [3]. - In November, the added value of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing above the designated size increased by 8.4% and 7.7% year - on - year respectively, maintaining a growth rate of over 7% in each month since 2025 [3]. - In November, the service production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month and 1.9 percentage points lower than in November last year [3]. Economic Outlook and Recommendations - The economy still faces certain pressure. On the consumption side, although there is growth in durable goods and service consumption supported by policies, the decline in the retail sales of above - quota durable goods reflects that the overall consumer willingness still needs to be boosted. On the investment side, the drag of infrastructure and real - estate on the economy may continue [3]. - The probability of the introduction of growth - stabilization policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts increases. The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected, and it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5 - year bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]

12月16日，省统计局发布前11月陕西经济运行情况：前11月，全省生产供给平稳有序，内需潜力持 续释放，新质生产力稳步发展，经济运行呈总体平稳、稳中向好的发展态势。 消费市场较快增长。限额以上企业（单位）消费品零售额同比增长8.1%。其中，商品零售额同比 增长8.7%，餐饮收入零售额同比增长1.6%。消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，家用电器和音像器材类商 品同比增长35.4%，汽车类商品零售额同比增长7%，其中新能源汽车零售额同比增长34.8%。网上零售 保持高速增长，限上单位通过公共网络实现的零售额同比增长25.3%。 货物进出口加快增长。货物进出口总额4720.37亿元，同比增长13.7%。其中，出口3266.95亿元， 同比增长16.6%；进口1453.42亿元，同比增长7.8%。机电产品出口额同比增长17.6%，高新技术产品出 口额同比增长17%。（记者：苏怡） 工业生产稳定增长。规模以上工业增加值同比增长7.5%。从三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比增长 9.5%，制造业增加值同比增长5.4%，电力、热力、燃气及水的生产供应业增加值同比增长4.6%。从主 要行业看，煤炭开采和洗选业增加值同比增长10.8%，石 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the year-on-year increase in CPI was mainly driven by a sharp rebound in fresh vegetable prices, while PPI remained weak year-on-year. The unexpected rebound in exports may be due to factors such as the suppression of the base effect in October, Christmas stocking in Europe and the United States, and improvements in Sino-US tariffs. The structure of foreign trade exports continued to improve, with diversification results becoming prominent, and high-end manufacturing becoming the core driving force for exports [2]. - The economy still faces certain pressures. Although there is growth in durable goods and service consumption supported by policies on the consumer side, the structural differentiation of CPI and the mild rebound of core CPI reflect that the overall consumer willingness of residents still needs to be boosted. Exports rebounded unexpectedly in November, and the trade structure continued to improve. Affected by the high base of pre - emptive exports in the first half of this year, the resilience of foreign trade growth next year needs to be continuously observed. The 75BP interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year have brought changes in global liquidity, and overseas trade frictions may still continuously disrupt export expectations. Against the backdrop of the intertwining of internal and external factors, the probability of the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation effects of policies and the improvement signals of prices and foreign trade [3]. - The performance of the bond market in 2026 is expected to be better than expected. Since the second half of the year, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is mainly dominated by institutional behavior. From the perspective of the domestic fundamentals, the domestic economic data is under pressure, and the necessity of lowering the policy interest rate has significantly increased. From the external environment, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75BP, and the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread has been significantly relieved. Currently, the yield of long - term bonds has reached a high point this year. Under the dual effects of internal and external factors, the probability of a successful long - position strategy is relatively high [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Situation - In November, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024. Food prices turned from a decline of 2.9% last month to an increase of 0.2%, while non - food prices rose by 0.8% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [2]. - Food prices "turning from negative to positive" were the core driving force. Fresh vegetable prices rose by 14.5% year - on - year, with the impact on the year - on - year increase of CPI increasing by about 0.49 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in pork prices narrowed to - 15.0%, and the prices of beef and mutton increased. Energy prices had a greater drag, with energy prices falling by 3.4% year - on - year [2]. - There was a structural differentiation in core CPI. On the industrial consumer goods side, the year - on - year increase in gold jewelry prices expanded to 58.4%, and clothing prices rose by 2.0%, but household appliance prices decreased. On the service side, although the demand for post - holiday travel declined, the prices of domestic services and dining out still maintained positive growth [2]. PPI Situation - In November, PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points. Production materials decreased by 2.4% year - on - year, and living materials decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, maintaining positive growth for two consecutive months [2]. - Domestic policies and seasonal demand supported upstream prices. The start of "peak - winter power consumption" in November led to a surge in coal demand, and the prices of coal mining and washing and coal processing increased significantly month - on - month. The effects of comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition were evident, and the year - on - year decline in prices of some industries continued to narrow [2]. - Input factors showed a differentiated pattern. The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove up the prices of domestic non - ferrous metal mining and smelting industries, while the decline in international oil prices led to a decline in the prices of the oil and gas extraction and refined petroleum product industries [2]. - The seasonal decline in downstream demand for infrastructure restricted the overall ex - factory prices. The prices of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, reflecting the weakening of infrastructure demand. Most industries' ex - factory prices were still under significant pressure year - on - year, but non - ferrous metal industries performed well [2][3]. Foreign Trade Situation - In November, the total value of imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, turning from negative to positive compared with October. Imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, continuing the six - month growth trend. The trade structure continued to have the characteristics of "strong exports and stable imports" [3]. - Trade with the EU and Africa rebounded significantly, while the decline in exports to the US continued to expand. Exports to ASEAN maintained double - digit growth. Exports to the EU rebounded strongly, and exports to Africa had a high growth rate. Although the decline in exports to the US expanded, the drag on overall exports was offset by the growth of the EU and African markets [3]. - This month's unexpected export growth was mainly affected by the rebound in export growth to the EU and Africa. High - end manufacturing became the core driving force for the rebound. Exports of mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products increased significantly year - on - year, while the growth rates of labor - intensive products were still in the decline range [3].

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-11 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量 篇》 - 2025.12.8 宏观研究 出口韧性不改，中欧合作深化应具有持续性 核心观点 11 月出口增速超预期回升，预计全年出口保持较高韧性，成为经 济增长的重要贡献项。（1）从主要贸易伙伴的出口贡献看，我国对欧 盟、日本、韩国出口回升，是支撑当月出口的主要原因；对美国出口 延续弱势；对东盟出口增速因基数走高而有所回落。我们理解，我国 与欧盟经贸合作加强，或者体现了全球贸易格局调整下的贸易转移效 应，我们在前期报告中多次强调；11 月我国对日本出口增长，或因日 本错误言论，日本部分企业存在"抢进口"行为，同时日本物价高企， 我国出口日本的商品具有较为明显价格优势；11 月我国对韩国出口增 速回升，应该是我国出口商品具有价格优势。（2）从重点商品来看， 汽车、集成电路 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export growth rate rebounded and turned positive in November 2025, indicating strong resilience in foreign trade. The root cause of China's exports continuously exceeding expectations lies in the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods, which is the result of domestic "involution" and technological progress. Although the export growth rate may slow down in December due to the high base in 2024, the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods will remain unchanged, and China's exports will remain high for a long time. In the bond market, with the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [1][5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 11 - month Import and Export Data Highlights - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of imports, exports, and trade surplus all rebounded. Exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year and 8.2% month - on - month, and the export amount reached a high level since 2021 [3][4]. 3.2 Reasons for the Rebound of Export Growth Rate in November - The negative year - on - year export growth in October was mainly due to the base dislocation in September and October 2024 and trade frictions. After the China - US talks in Kuala Lumpur and the meeting in Busan, the conclusion of trade agreements promoted the return of the export rhythm to normal. After the elimination of base disturbances, the export growth rate rebounded and turned positive in November [5]. 3.3 Analysis of Export Structure - As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of mechanical and electrical products exports was 8.0%, and that of high - tech product exports was 6.6%, showing relatively high - speed growth. In contrast, the cumulative year - on - year decrease of labor - intensive goods was 4.2%, indicating a transformation from labor - intensive to high - tech products in exports, which may reflect China's industrial transformation and upgrading [6]. 3.4 Forecast of Export Growth Rate in December - Due to the high base caused by the rush to export in December 2024 after Trump's election and the resulting increase in trade policy uncertainty, the export growth rate in December 2025 may be under pressure. However, the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods will not change [7]. 3.5 Market Conditions - On December 8, the long - term yield first rose and then fell, showing an "M" - shaped trend. After the Politburo meeting mentioned the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, the long - term yield quickly declined. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and the Central Economic Work Conference [8]. 3.6 Bond Market Viewpoints - In the context of the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. For stock and bond allocation, the previous views are maintained [9].

Export Performance - In November 2025, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, a rebound of 7.0 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Imports grew by 1.9% year-on-year, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The trade surplus reached $111.68 billion, compared to $90.07 billion in the previous month[1] Regional Analysis - The drag from exports to the United States expanded by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4 percentage points[3] - Exports to the EU, Hong Kong, Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America contributed 1.9, 1.6, 1.5, 1.4, and 1.0 percentage points respectively[3] - ASEAN remains the largest contributor to China's exports, with significant increases from Africa, the EU, Hong Kong, and India compared to 2024[3] Product Analysis - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main drivers of export growth, contributing 4.8 and 1.6 percentage points respectively[3] - Labor-intensive products continued to drag on exports, contributing a negative 0.6 percentage points[3] - Key products like automobiles, ships, and integrated circuits showed strong performance, collectively increasing their contribution to 2.0 percentage points[3] Import Dynamics - Mechanical and high-tech products maintained stable contributions to import growth at 1.8 and 2.5 percentage points respectively[3] - The drag from raw materials decreased to 2.5 percentage points, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Agricultural products' drag on import growth was 0.3 percentage points, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include underwhelming implementation of growth policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[3]