海关总署公布了今年前11个月的外贸数据，2025年我国货物贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元大关，创历史 新高。这一数字不仅是量的跨越，更是质的宣言。在外部环境风高浪急、脱钩断链噪音不绝于耳的背景 下，中国外贸非但没有如某些西方观察者预言般"断崖式下跌"，反而逆势上扬、稳中有进。 这一历史性成绩的取得，不是偶然的运气，而是全球市场规律与中国产业韧性共同作用的必然结果。 如果说几十年前的顺差更多依靠以量取胜的汗水经济，那么今天的突破，则更清晰地标注了中国产业由 大变强的升级轨迹。万亿美元顺差不是单一产品的偶然冲高，而是产业体系能力长期积累后的一次集中 呈现。 细看这份顺差的结构变化，质量和技术含量同步提升，整体附加值持续攀升。以电动汽车、锂电池、太 阳能电池为代表的"新三样"，正在从增长亮点走向关键支撑。它们的意义不止在于出口规模的扩张，更 在于中国外贸的竞争逻辑正在发生变化：过去更依赖价格与规模，如今更依赖技术迭代、产业配套和交 付确定性。"新三样"的崛起说明中国外贸竞争力正在从价格优势转向技术迭代与全链条能力。 "新三样"能够形成持续竞争力，根子在于产业链的完整与协同。中国是世界上唯一拥有联合国产业分类 中全部工业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the RMB exchange rate is highlighted amidst ongoing global trade uncertainties, with the RMB recovering the 7.2 threshold and showing strong performance against the USD [1][4]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of May 28, the onshore and offshore USD/RMB exchange rates hovered around 7.195 and 7.188, with the offshore rate briefly surpassing the onshore midpoint, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards RMB appreciation [1][2]. - The offshore RMB rate reached as high as 7.1703 on May 27, exceeding the onshore midpoint by over 170 basis points, reflecting a change in trading atmosphere [2]. Market Sentiment and Investment Behavior - There is a noticeable decrease in the trend of overseas investment institutions shorting the RMB, with many hedge funds no longer borrowing offshore RMB for short-selling [2][6]. - Large overseas asset management institutions are gradually increasing their holdings in domestic financial assets, boosting demand for RMB [2][6]. - The expectation of a surge in Chinese exports to the U.S. from May to July is driving optimism about the RMB's strength, with predictions of high trade surpluses supporting the currency [2][8]. Forward Contracts and Speculation - Some overseas investment funds are purchasing three-month call options on the RMB, betting on significant appreciation due to favorable trade surplus performance [3][8]. - The market anticipates that the USD/RMB exchange rate will rise to around 7.14 in three months, which is lower than the expectations of some overseas funds [3]. Dollar Depreciation Expectations - The ongoing trade tensions and the potential for U.S. economic recession are leading to increased bearish sentiment towards the USD, with speculators holding significant short positions [4][5]. - The expectation of continued USD depreciation is influencing the foreign exchange market, shifting sentiment towards RMB appreciation [5][6]. Impact of Chinese Exports - The surge in orders from U.S. retailers for Chinese goods is expected to enhance the RMB's valuation, as companies prepare to meet increased demand [7][8]. - The anticipated high trade surplus from May to July is prompting many overseas investment institutions to adjust their RMB valuation models, predicting a potential approach to the 7.0 mark [8][9]. A-Share Market Implications - The strengthening of the RMB is expected to positively impact the A-share market, with predictions that a 1% appreciation in the RMB could lead to a 3% increase in Chinese stocks [9]. - The positive cycle of RMB appreciation attracting foreign investment into A-shares is becoming a significant topic among emerging market funds [9].