Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the instability of the global economy in 2026 is primarily driven by three structural roots: weak and uneven global growth, a low tolerance state in the global financial system, and the shift from efficiency logic to geopolitical economic logic [1][3][4] Group 2 - The first structural root is the long-term weakening and highly uneven global growth momentum, with a noticeable decline in the global potential growth rate compared to the early 21st century. Developed economies are constrained by aging populations and declining investment returns, while emerging economies face debt constraints and limited development space [3] - The second structural root is the low tolerance state of the global financial system, where the combination of high interest rates, high debt, and high uncertainty has significantly narrowed the buffer space of the financial system. Risks may not manifest as a comprehensive crisis but could erupt locally and transmit across markets, exacerbating systemic instability [3] - The third structural root is the replacement of efficiency logic with geopolitical economic logic, where certain countries systematically weaponize trade, investment, technology, and financial policies, leading to a new form of globalization characterized by higher costs, lower efficiency, and greater fragmentation [3] Group 3 - In response to these challenges, China aims to provide stability to the global economy through four levels of certainty: macroeconomic growth certainty, industrial supply certainty, institutional rule certainty, and financial stability [4][5] - On the macro level, China plans to maintain stable and predictable growth by expanding domestic demand, optimizing investment structures, and fostering new productive capacities [4] - On the industrial level, China's core advantages will shift from cost-based to a complete industrial system, continuous technological iteration, and scalable application scenarios, particularly in sectors like new energy, high-end manufacturing, and digital economy [4] - On the institutional level, China will promote high-level institutional openness and reduce institutional friction costs through regional and multilateral cooperation, opposing protectionism disguised as security measures [4] - On the financial level, China will accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi, deepen regional financial cooperation, and enhance financial regulatory coordination to provide diverse risk mitigation options for global southern countries [4] Group 4 - Overall, the world economy in 2026 lacks stability, predictability, and reliable institutional supply, despite not being short of capital and technology. China's responsibility is to provide certainty, continuity, and cooperation in an uncertain world, which is essential for its own high-quality development and for overcoming structural challenges in the global economic system [5]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 China Chief Economist Forum emphasizes the theme "Chess in the Middle Game: Building a Strong Nation," highlighting the need for China to provide certainty in an increasingly unstable global economic environment [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Stability - The current global economy is characterized by a normalization of instability, which is a structural state rather than short-term fluctuations [3][7]. - China's response logic focuses on how to provide certainty in an uncertain world [3][7]. Group 2: Four Levels of Certainty Supply - **Macroeconomic Certainty**: China aims to provide growth certainty by expanding domestic demand, optimizing investment structure, and nurturing new productive forces to maintain a medium-to-high-speed, sustainable, and predictable growth path. China's stable growth is viewed as an important public good for the world [8]. - **Industrial Certainty**: The core advantage of China's future development lies not only in cost but also in a complete industrial system, continuous technological iteration, and scalable application scenarios. This foundation enables China to offer stable and replicable supply capabilities in sectors like new energy, high-end manufacturing, and digital economy [8]. - **Institutional Certainty**: China promotes high-level institutional openness, regional and multilateral cooperation, and aims to reduce institutional friction costs, particularly opposing protectionism disguised as security measures [8]. - **Financial Certainty**: By accelerating the internationalization of the Renminbi, enhancing regional financial cooperation, and coordinating financial regulation, China seeks to provide diverse risk mitigation options for global southern countries [8]. Group 3: Global Economic Responsibility - The world economy in 2026 lacks not capital or technology, but stability, predictability, and reliable institutional supply. China's responsibility is to not only change global uncertainty but also to continuously provide certainty, continuity, and cooperation in an uncertain world. This is essential for China's high-quality development and for helping the global economic system overcome structural challenges [4][8].