2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，中国经济将迈入高质量发展的关键转型期。银河证券首席经济学家 章俊指出，伴随经济再平衡进程推进、温和再通胀格局形成，叠加内外环境阶段性改善，2026年投资中 国股票市场有望获得显著超额回报，资本市场将在新旧动能转换中发挥核心枢纽作用，带动中长期资金 入市与居民存款搬家形成正向循环。 章俊团队构建的"银河时钟"资产配置框架显示，在房价逐步触底、汇率稳步升值的双重积极信号下，中 国大类资产配置将从第四象限迈入第一象限，股票资产将成为本轮周期的核心受益品种。这一判断背 后，是经济基本面改善、政策协同发力、外部环境缓和三大核心支撑逻辑的共振。 三重积极因素：支撑股市超额回报 其一，外部环境阶段性改善，美国政策重心内移，中美迎来一年宝贵的缓和期，美联储主席换届和劳动 力市场结构重塑为降息提供保障，预计2026年底前基准利率降至2.75%至3%区间（3次降息），全球流 动性宽松格局将为中国资本市场带来有利外部环境。 其二，资本市场功能定位持续强化。资本市场作为新旧动能转换的重要枢纽，在"乘势而上"支持科技和 高质量发展、"因势利导"提振信心和财富效应方面均发挥关键作用。中长期资金入市和 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that foreign investment, particularly from South Korea and global hedge funds, is increasingly entering the Chinese stock market, driven by improved liquidity and a favorable macroeconomic outlook [1][2][3] - As of August 18, 2023, South Korean investors increased their holdings in Chinese stocks from 190.83 billion RMB at the end of 2024 to 244.75 billion RMB, marking a nearly 30% growth [1] - Major stocks favored by South Korean investors include Xiaomi, Tencent, BYD, and Alibaba, with holdings in Xiaomi and Tencent exceeding 18 billion RMB each [1] Group 2 - Global hedge funds are buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace since June, with a buy-to-cover ratio of approximately 1.9:1, indicating strong bullish sentiment [2] - Despite increased interest from overseas investors, their allocation to Chinese stocks remains conservative, with a current active allocation ratio of 6.4%, still underweight by 330 basis points [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a ten-year high, attributed to improved liquidity as funds shift from bonds and deposits to equities [2] Group 3 - Retail investor participation is a key driver of the recent A-share market rally, with trading volume up 80% year-on-year and a significant increase in financing balance [2][3] - The financing balance in the A-share market, although rising, remains low relative to market capitalization, suggesting potential for further inflows as the market strengthens [3] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the trend of capital returning to the Chinese stock market will strengthen post-summer, with Chinese stocks showing lower valuations compared to other major markets [3]