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碳酸锂日评:谨防情绪回落-20250814
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 05:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The profit of lithium carbonate has been restored, and its production has rebounded, while the fluctuations at the Jiangxi mining end continue. However, as the exchange has taken cooling measures for coking coal futures, there is a need to guard against the "counter - emotional" sentiment decline. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or buy put options for protection [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market - On August 13, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated. The trading volume was 1,245,424 lots (-172,280), and the open interest was 392,675 lots (+35,677). In the spot market, the buying sentiment was relatively strong, and the basis discount narrowed [1] - The price of spodumene concentrate increased, and the price of mica also rose [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. In August, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the production schedule of lithium phosphate increased [1] - Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month. The 3C shipments were average. The production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in August [1] 3.3 Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 21,679 tons (+850). The social inventory was tight. The inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight [1] 3.4 Market Information - Fed Chair Goolsbee said more evidence of inflation improvement is needed, and there is a possibility of action at each meeting. Fed nominee Milan said there is no evidence that tariffs trigger inflation. Currently, traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September [1] - China's financial data in July: At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year. In the first seven months, the new social financing was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan [1] - On August 12, US lithium giant Albemarle said its lithium processing plant in La Negra, Chile, had resumed normal operation after an "incident" last week. The company expected this event not to affect lithium metal sales and no casualties occurred [1]