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中国 - 东盟蓝色经济共同大市场
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上证观察家 | 建设中国-东盟蓝色经济共同大市场
Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of maritime economic connectivity and cooperation between China and ASEAN is expected to significantly impact sustainable economic development and promote a new regional maritime cooperation framework led by collaboration [1][2]. Group 1: Blue Economy as a Common Market - The construction of a China-ASEAN blue economy common market is seen as a "blue engine" for economic growth and regional economic integration [2][3]. - Currently, approximately 30% of ASEAN countries' GDP comes from the maritime economy, while China's maritime economy contributes about 8% to its GDP. By 2024, China's marine production value is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan, growing by 5.9% year-on-year [4]. - Investment of $2 trillion to $3.7 trillion in blue economy sectors from 2020 to 2050 could yield net returns of $8.2 trillion to $22.8 trillion, with an investment return rate of 450% to 615% [4]. Group 2: Economic and Trade Cooperation - Since the signing of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 1.0 in 2010, trade cooperation has deepened, with China maintaining its position as ASEAN's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years [5]. - In 2023, the trade volume between China and ASEAN increased 16.8 times over 20 years, but cooperation in the maritime sector remains fragmented [5]. - The share of marine product trade in total bilateral trade is only 0.6%, indicating significant potential for growth [5]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - Both China and ASEAN face the challenge of industrial transformation, particularly in fisheries, where they account for 80% of global aquaculture and 60% of global fish catch [6]. - The demand for renewable energy in the ASEAN region is expected to increase by 3 to 4 times by 2050, with an annual growth rate of about 6% in renewable power installations from 2021 to 2023 [6]. Group 4: Development of Marine Tourism - Developing maritime tourism cooperation is a significant step to meet market demand and promote connectivity in marine industries [6]. - The global cruise tourism market is expected to recover to a growth rate of about 5% by 2028, with China's cruise tourism market projected to reach 14 million passengers by 2030 [6]. Group 5: Marine Fisheries and Renewable Energy Markets - ASEAN is a major producer and exporter of marine products, with 25% of its total exports going to China in 2024 [8]. - China has invested significantly in renewable energy projects in ASEAN, accounting for about 60% of foreign public investment in the region from 2000 to 2020 [10]. Group 6: Infrastructure and Governance - The development of maritime infrastructure is crucial, as ASEAN countries' port infrastructure is lagging behind, with only 2 out of the top 20 global ports located in the region [15]. - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is seen as a foundational framework for integrating blue economy rules and standards [16]. - Establishing a cooperative governance framework for ecological resource protection is essential for sustainable development in the South China Sea [18].