Core Viewpoint - The potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September could lead to a corresponding decrease in China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on September 22, which would further lower domestic mortgage rates [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Trump is dissatisfied with Fed Chair Powell's reluctance to cut rates quickly, which he believes is necessary to boost the economy ahead of the midterm elections [2]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is traditionally upheld, making it unprecedented for a president to demand the removal of a Fed chair, which could undermine international confidence in dollar assets [3]. - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler provides Trump an opportunity to nominate a new member, potentially influencing future monetary policy [5][9]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - Trump's ability to nominate a "shadow chair" allows him to exert influence over the Fed without direct confrontation with Powell [8]. - The upcoming decisions by Trump regarding the new Fed governor and the implications for U.S.-Russia relations could significantly impact global markets [13][14]. - Current employment data suggests a high probability of a rate cut in September, with discussions around whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points [18]. Group 3: China's Monetary Policy Outlook - The LPR is expected to decrease by 10 to 15 basis points in September, with further cuts anticipated by the end of the year, depending on the Fed's actions [23]. - The LPR has been on a downward trend, with only one cut of 10 basis points in May this year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary easing [21][23]. - By 2026, there is a potential for more significant cuts in China's LPR, as the Fed may implement aggressive rate reductions, allowing for greater flexibility in China's monetary policy [23].