12月19日，央行开展7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，保持不变。7天逆回购利率保持不变，意味着12月22日LPR下调的概率非常低。 2024年，央行行行长潘功胜表示：未来可考虑明确以央行的某个短期操作利率为主要政策利率，目前看，7天期逆回购操作利率已基本承担了该功能。 12月22日（节假日顺延）将是年内最后一次降息窗口（1年期和5年期LPR）。股民和购房者非常关注这一天降不降息。 原因很简单，每年的1月1日是很多房贷或其它贷款调息日，如果上年LPR下调，那么很多房贷或其它浮动贷款利率也会下调。 不过，最新的迹象显示：12月22日1年期和5年期LPR下调的概率非常低。本月降息与否悬念似乎揭开了。 那么下一个降息的窗口在哪里？ 可能在明年上半年，但在降息之前，降准可能先行开始，有不少学者预测，降息可能在明年1月份开启。 最近，学习时报头版刊文提到："十五五"时期年均经济增长速度达到5%左右是完全有条件的。 国家明确提出：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。坚持内需主导，全方位扩大国内需求，要推动投资止跌回稳。 后来，7天期逆回购操作利率成为LPR定价的锚。由于明后两天是周末，7天期逆回购操作利率在LPR调整窗 ...

12月10日至11日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。 继续保持市场流动性充裕 会议指出，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟认为，这表明物价作为反映供需的信号，成为政策关注变量，而货币政策与经济增长、物 价的关联也进一步被明确。 具体操作层面，会议指出，"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"。 本报记者 韩昱 "这延续了去年中央经济工作会议基调，表明我国在'十五五'开局之年仍需以适度宽松的货币金融环境支持实体经济高质量 发展。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时说。 货币政策作为宏观经济调控的核心工具，本次会议释放的信号对明年的货币政策有哪些指引？业界又有哪些具体期待？ 《证券日报》记者就此采访了多位专家进行解读。 从幅度看，东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳预计，综合明年经济金融形势以及物价走势，政策性降息幅度有可能达到0.2 个百分点至0.3个百分点，降准幅度有望达到1个百分点，上半年、下半年分别实施一次。 "从稳定明年一季度宏观经济运行等角度出发，不排除今年底明年初降息降准落地的可能。"冯琳进 ...

2025.12. 08 本文字数：1284，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 2026年的货币政策基调已经明确。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳 中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策 集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 货币政策延续了过去一段时间的提法，即"适度宽松"、"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"。与7月召开 的政治局会议相比，表述出现微调：删去"保持流动性充裕"、"促进社会综合融资成本下行"，并新 增了加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度的表述。 实际上，不久前，央行发布的2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告中就提到，下阶段，做好逆周 期和跨周期调节，提升宏观经济治理效能，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 近一段时间，货币政策不断发力，央行先后下调7天期逆回购、LPR（贷款市场报价利率）、SLF （常备借贷便利）、MLF（中期借贷便利）利率，创设临时隔夜正逆回购，MLF的政策利率色彩淡 化，7天期逆回购操作利率将发挥基准政策利率功能，新的调控框架已基本成型。 从2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for October, reflecting stable policy rates and ongoing pressure on bank interest margins, indicating limited room for LPR reduction in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR for both 1-year and 5-year terms remains at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, unchanged for five consecutive months, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. - The stability of the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40% since May limits the basis for LPR reduction, as it has not changed [2]. - Bank interest margin pressures are increasing due to ongoing efforts to reduce costs for the real economy, with the net interest margin of commercial banks dropping to 1.42% by Q2 2025, down 10 basis points from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The need for stable growth has increased due to external pressures, such as high tariffs from the U.S. affecting global trade and domestic investment and consumption slowing down [4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support consumption and effective investment [4]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - Experts suggest that there is potential for targeted LPR reductions before the end of the year to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [5][6]. - The PBOC may utilize various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF operations, to enhance liquidity and support key sectors [6]. - External factors, such as the potential for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may provide a conducive environment for domestic monetary easing [6][7].

Group 1 - The latest LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year, aligning with market expectations [1] - The stability of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate since May 8 indicates no changes in the pricing basis for LPR, leading to the expectation of no adjustments in September [1] - LPR has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with analysts suggesting potential downward space for policy rates and LPR within the year [1] Group 2 - The impact of high U.S. tariffs on global trade and China's exports may become more pronounced in Q4, increasing the necessity for policies to stabilize growth and employment [2] - The potential for a new round of interest rate cuts by the central bank in Q4 is anticipated, which could lead to a decrease in LPR, stimulating internal financing demand [2] - Continuous weak credit and declining real estate sales highlight the necessity for rate cuts to lower financing costs, while banks face pressure on interest margins [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) steady for three months, following a 0.1 percentage point reduction in May, which is expected to influence both corporate and residential loan rates positively [3][9]. Group 1: Loan Rates Overview - The current commercial loan rates for first-time homebuyers in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 3.00% and 3.05% respectively, while second-home buyers face rates of 3.00% and 3.45% [3]. - The public housing fund loan rates for first-time homebuyers are 2.60% in both cities, with second-home buyers facing rates of 3.075% [3]. Group 2: LPR Historical Trends - Since August 2019, the 5-year LPR has decreased from 4.85% to 3.50%, indicating a sustained downward trend [6]. - The reduction in LPR is expected to lower financing costs for businesses, stimulating investment and economic growth, while also easing the mortgage burden on residents, thereby boosting housing demand [6][9]. Group 3: Impact of LPR on Mortgage Payments - A comparison of mortgage payments shows that a loan of 2 million yuan over 30 years at an interest rate of 4.85% results in a total repayment of approximately 3.8 million yuan, while at 3.5%, the total repayment drops to about 3.23 million yuan, saving around 566,000 yuan in interest [7][8]. Group 4: Reasons for LPR Stability - The PBOC's decision to keep the LPR unchanged is influenced by the stability of short-term borrowing rates and the current economic conditions, which do not necessitate immediate adjustments [9][10][11]. - Banks are under profit pressure and are reluctant to lower LPR rates further, as this could impact their profitability [10]. - The macroeconomic environment has shown stability, leading to a cautious approach in adjusting LPR rates [11]. Group 5: Future Predictions - Future LPR adjustments may occur as indicated by the recent Central Urban Work Conference, which emphasizes the need for a stable real estate market and potential measures to stimulate demand [12][13]. - The conference highlighted the importance of reducing overall financing costs, suggesting that there is room for future LPR reductions [13].

Group 1 - The central bank has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for three consecutive months since its decline in May, indicating a careful timing of policy adjustments in a complex economic environment [1] - Current interest rates provide substantial support to the real economy, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, reflecting a decrease of about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year respectively [1] - The effects of previous low-interest rate policies are gradually being realized, as evidenced by the recovery in M1 growth, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, and the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - In the context of uneven economic recovery, targeted tools are preferred over broad rate cuts to enhance policy effectiveness, avoiding inefficient capital allocation while injecting targeted momentum into specific weak areas [2] - Structural contradictions in the economy still leave room for future rate cuts, as there is a coexistence of insufficient domestic demand and excessive competition on the supply side, necessitating a moderately loose monetary policy to counterbalance these pressures [3] - The timing of potential rate cuts is crucial and should align with the pace of price recovery, as the central bank emphasizes promoting reasonable price increases as a key consideration for monetary policy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the progress and optimization of interest rate marketization in China, emphasizing its importance for economic development and the need for further improvements in the interest rate transmission mechanism [2][3][4]. Group 1: Progress of Interest Rate Marketization - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, significant strides have been made in interest rate marketization, establishing a framework where market rates and central bank guidance effectively transmit monetary policy signals to the real economy [3][4]. - Key breakthroughs include the comprehensive smoothing of the interest rate transmission mechanism, optimization of the policy interest rate system, and the formal establishment of a market-driven interest rate system [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Rate and Market Rates - In 2024, the central bank will establish the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the main policy interest rate, replacing the MLF rate, which enhances the short-term interest rate's guiding role [5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has guided market interest rates to operate smoothly around the policy rate, with the DR007 rate maintaining synchronization with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate [5][6]. Group 3: Loan and Deposit Market Rates - Financial institutions are encouraged to reference the 7-day reverse repurchase rate for LPR pricing, improving the mortgage pricing mechanism and eliminating the nationwide personal housing loan interest rate floor [5][6]. - The PBOC has established a market-based adjustment mechanism for deposit rates, allowing banks to adjust rates based on the 10-year government bond yield and 1-year LPR [7]. Group 4: Challenges and Recommendations - Despite progress, there is still room for optimization in the interest rate transmission mechanism, particularly in improving the quality of LPR quotes and addressing the mismatch between quoted rates and actual rates offered to customers [10][11]. - The article suggests a shift from quantity-based monetary policy targets to price-based frameworks, enhancing the coordination between monetary policy and fiscal measures to stimulate demand [12][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period will face complex domestic and international challenges, necessitating more flexible and forward-looking macroeconomic policies [15][16]. - Recommendations include refining the policy interest rate system, enhancing the representation of short-term rates in the market, and exploring differentiated pricing templates for specific sectors [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of interest rate marketization in China, highlighting its role in effectively transmitting monetary policy signals to the real economy, especially during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Marketization Reform - The interest rate marketization reform has entered a deep-water zone during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the establishment of a market-oriented transmission mechanism that allows monetary policy signals to reach the real economy efficiently [1][2]. - Key breakthroughs in the reform include the comprehensive smoothing of the interest rate transmission mechanism, optimization of the policy interest rate system, and the formal establishment of a market-oriented interest rate system [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Rate and Market Rates - In 2024, the central bank will establish the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the main policy interest rate, replacing the MLF rate, which enhances the short-term interest rate's guiding role in the market [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has guided market interest rates to operate smoothly around the policy interest rate, improving liquidity management among institutions [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Loan and Deposit Rates - The reform has led to a decline in the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans since 2019, effectively reducing the overall financing costs for society [4][5]. - The PBOC has established a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates, allowing banks to adjust rates based on the 10-year government bond yield and the 1-year LPR [4][5]. Group 4: Challenges and Optimization - Despite significant achievements, there is still room for optimization in the interest rate transmission mechanism, particularly in enhancing the quality of LPR quotations and addressing the mismatch between quoted rates and actual preferential rates [6][7]. - The article highlights the need to address the "scale obsession" in the banking sector, which has led to unhealthy competition and affected the sustainability of financial support for the real economy [8][9]. Group 5: Future Directions - Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan," the focus will be on optimizing the interest rate transmission mechanism and ensuring that monetary policy is flexible and forward-looking to support the real economy [10][12]. - Recommendations include further simplifying the policy interest rate system and exploring a tiered reserve requirement system to enhance banks' willingness to lend to specific groups [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September could lead to a corresponding decrease in China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on September 22, which would further lower domestic mortgage rates [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Trump is dissatisfied with Fed Chair Powell's reluctance to cut rates quickly, which he believes is necessary to boost the economy ahead of the midterm elections [2]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is traditionally upheld, making it unprecedented for a president to demand the removal of a Fed chair, which could undermine international confidence in dollar assets [3]. - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler provides Trump an opportunity to nominate a new member, potentially influencing future monetary policy [5][9]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - Trump's ability to nominate a "shadow chair" allows him to exert influence over the Fed without direct confrontation with Powell [8]. - The upcoming decisions by Trump regarding the new Fed governor and the implications for U.S.-Russia relations could significantly impact global markets [13][14]. - Current employment data suggests a high probability of a rate cut in September, with discussions around whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points [18]. Group 3: China's Monetary Policy Outlook - The LPR is expected to decrease by 10 to 15 basis points in September, with further cuts anticipated by the end of the year, depending on the Fed's actions [23]. - The LPR has been on a downward trend, with only one cut of 10 basis points in May this year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary easing [21][23]. - By 2026, there is a potential for more significant cuts in China's LPR, as the Fed may implement aggressive rate reductions, allowing for greater flexibility in China's monetary policy [23].