1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has been fluctuating, and base metals may shift to a period of consolidation. In the short - to - medium term, concerns about supply disruptions continue to support prices. The positive tone of the Central Economic Work Conference is expected to improve demand, which will boost base metals. However, high prices may suppress consumption, and the fluctuating expectation of Fed rate cuts may restrict further price increases. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are favored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **View**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating with an upward bias [6][7]. - **Information Analysis**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points in December. The CSPT decided to reduce the capacity load of mine - copper production by over 10% in 2026. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. On December 15, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper showed a premium, and the national copper inventory increased [6][7]. - **Main Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Supply disruptions in copper mines are increasing, and the CSPT's decision strengthens the expectation of supply contraction. Although the demand is in the off - season, the spot premium indicates that downstream acceptance of copper prices is rising. The increase in the premium of Chilean refined copper reflects the expectation of supply - demand tightness next year [7]. 3.2 Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [8]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, and the alumina warehouse receipts decreased [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The domestic market is in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak. The current price difference between futures and spot is large, and the low futures price may drag down the spot price. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [8]. 3.3 Aluminum - **View**: Inventory has started to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating with an upward bias [11][12]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. In November 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Some Indonesian aluminum plants are in the trial - operation or production stage [11]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - economic outlook is positive. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, while overseas power shortages may tighten future supply. High aluminum prices have suppressed demand, and the inventory has started to accumulate. Overall, the short - term macro - expectation and fundamentals support aluminum prices to oscillate with an upward bias, and the price center may rise in the medium term [12]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the market is oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating with an upward bias [13]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The registered warehouse receipts increased. In October, the import of scrap aluminum in China increased year - on - year, with Thailand being the main source [13]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has decreased, and there are still risks of production cuts in the medium term. The year - end seasonal peak of automobile sales is approaching the end, and demand may weaken. Although the social inventory has decreased slightly, the warehouse receipt inventory has increased. Overall, the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short and medium terms [13]. 3.5 Zinc - **View**: The export window has significantly narrowed, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [14][16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. In September 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - to - date [16]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - economic outlook is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the processing fee has declined, leading to a decrease in zinc ingot production. The opening of the export window has relieved the domestic supply pressure. However, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. In the short term, zinc prices may continue to oscillate at a high level, and there is a downward risk in the long term [16][17]. 3.6 Lead - **View**: The LME lead inventory has increased significantly, and lead prices are oscillating. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [18][19]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased, and the price of lead ingots decreased. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased. The recycling price of waste lead - acid batteries in some regions is stable, and the market activity has slightly improved [18]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium and the price difference between primary and recycled lead are stable, and the futures warehouse receipts are decreasing. The price of waste batteries has decreased, and the smelting profit of recycled lead has slightly expanded. The production of lead ingots has decreased due to many smelter overhauls. The demand for lead - acid batteries is at a high level, but the increase in LME lead inventory will suppress the upside of lead prices [18][19]. 3.7 Nickel - **View**: The LME nickel inventory remains at a high level, and nickel prices are weak. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [19][21][22]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the LME nickel inventory and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased. Some Indonesian projects are in progress, and the expected price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore is decreasing [19][20][21]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the overall supply - demand of nickel - related products is also loose. The high inventory of LME and Shanghai nickel futures suppresses nickel prices. There are many supply - side interference policies in major resource - producing countries, and the RKAB quota progress needs to be monitored [21][22]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: Driven by the weakening of nickel prices, the stainless - steel market is oscillating downward. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [23]. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot premium of stainless steel in Foshan was positive. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased [23]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support for stainless - steel prices has strengthened. The stainless - steel production decreased slightly in November and is expected to decline further in December. The social inventory has not accumulated significantly, but there is still pressure in the off - season. Overall, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [23]. 3.9 Tin - **View**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating with an upward bias [24][25]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the LME tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The spot price of tin decreased [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: Supply - side issues are the core concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State's Manxiang mining area is slow, and the supply of refined tin in Indonesia and Africa is restricted. The supply of tin ore is tightening, and the processing fee is low, limiting the increase in refined tin production. The demand for tin is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the development of related industries. Therefore, the supply - demand fundamentals support the upward movement of tin prices [25].