Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to run in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak operation. The lithium carbonate market is expected to move in a range, with investors being warned of capital and sentiment fluctuations and focusing on marginal supply and demand [2][4][5]. Summary by Category Finished Product - **Logic**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year. The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little price support [3][4]. - **Viewpoint**: The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Logic**: The futures price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 120,360 yuan/ton yesterday, with trading volume decreasing by 27.5% to 730,000 lots and open interest slightly decreasing to 671,500 lots. The net short position of the main contract continued, and the long - short ratio increased. The basis of the main contract was - 20,860 yuan/ton, at a near - one - year low. The futures market's expectation of future prices is significantly higher than that of the spot market. On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon is 99,500 yuan/ton, and the price continues to rise. Upstream lithium salt plants mainly focus on long - term contracts, downstream material plants are cautious about high prices, and trading among traders is light. In terms of fundamentals, the supply of lithium carbonate is steadily increasing but at a slower pace, short - term demand has slightly decreased, and long - term demand remains resilient. The inventory is in a state of destocking, but the slope has slowed down, and the overall inventory in the industry is still tight. Policy - wise, regulatory tightening is clear, and the industry is promoting the exit of backward production capacity. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference's deployments provide long - term support. The market sentiment is transitioning from "expectation - driven" to "fundamental verification" [3][4][5]. - **Viewpoint**: The lithium carbonate market is expected to move in a range. Investors should be vigilant about capital and sentiment fluctuations and focus on marginal supply and demand. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, production capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience, sample inventory destocking slope, and capital and sentiment [5].