1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment of capital risk aversion has increased, and the market is in a state of shock and consolidation. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation effect of macro - policies, marginal changes in costs and supply - demand, capacity release progress, as well as capital and sentiment [2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 147,220 yuan/ton with a narrow - range shock. The trading volume dropped significantly to 311,900 lots, and the open interest slightly increased to 359,900 lots. The net short position of the main capital continued, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly month - on - month. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,030 to 34,114 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 153,000 yuan/ton, with an electric - industrial price difference of 3,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt factories had a strong price - holding sentiment and a weak willingness to sell scattered orders. Downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and mainly adopted a strategy of purchasing at low prices. The overall market inquiry and transactions were lighter than before [2] Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, raw material markets generally rose. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 49.5% (-1.49%). Except for salt lakes, the operating rates of other processes decreased. The total SMM production was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [3] Demand - There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the SMM lithium iron phosphate production increased by 1.0% month - on - month with an increase in inventory accumulation; the ternary production decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and was gradually destocking. The production of power cells decreased slightly last week. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [3] Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of SMM's four - location samples decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month, and the sample weekly inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days increased to 28.5 days, the downstream inventory days increased to 10.8 days, and the days of upstream and other links decreased, showing a significant differentiation in inventory structure [3] Macro - policy Level - On the demand side, subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax - rebate policies provided multiple incentives to stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which would improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure in the long term and raising the cost support center. In terms of industrial planning, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference formed synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts indirectly strengthened the long - term macro - favorable atmosphere [4]

Market Changes - On January 30, the spot settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 158,500 CNY/ton, a decrease of 6,000 CNY from the previous working day, influenced by a continuous decline in market conditions, leading to increased selling enthusiasm among some traders, while major lithium salt manufacturers remain in a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) was 158,000 CNY/ton, down 3,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - In the futures market, most contracts hit the limit down, with the main contract closing at 148,200 CNY/ton, a drop of 18,300 CNY from the previous working day, and a noticeable decrease in open interest [1] - The net short position for lithium carbonate main contracts decreased by 29.5%, indicating a weakening of short-term downward momentum [1] ICC Lithium Battery Settlement Prices - The prices for various lithium products on January 30 compared to January 29 are as follows: - Lithium concentrate: 2,170 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY - Battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%): 15.85 CNY/kg, down 0.6 CNY - Lithium hydroxide (56.5%): 15.8 CNY/kg, down 0.3 CNY - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): 5.36 CNY/kg, down 0.1 CNY - Ternary materials: 20.75 CNY/kg, down 0.2 CNY - Prismatic energy storage cells (lithium iron phosphate): 0.375 CNY/Wh, unchanged [2] Industry Focus - In Australia, the lithium ore shipment volume from Bunbury Port in January 2026 was 158,900 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 58.58% and a year-on-year increase of 0.69% [5] Company Insights - The current average price level for energy storage cells indicates that second-tier companies can withstand lithium carbonate prices around 154,000 CNY [4] - The recent drop in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to the decline in precious metals and increased financial regulation, as well as the acceptance levels of downstream users. Rapid price increases have led to some energy storage projects being stalled, potentially affecting short-term project deliveries [6] - Looking ahead, various regions are gradually implementing energy storage capacity compensation policies, which are expected to raise the internal rate of return (IRR) conservatively by 1%-2%, with some areas seeing higher adjustments. The implementation of energy storage subsidy policies is likely to significantly influence the price trends of lithium carbonate in February and March [6]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit for the year 2025 to be between 600 million and 680 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 133.36% to 164.47% [2] - The net profit for the fourth quarter alone is projected to be between 266.01 million and 346.01 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 159.51% to 237.56% [2] Reasons for Performance Change - The company has stable orders from high-quality clients, and there has been a rebound in lithium salt market prices in the second half of the year, leading to significant growth in product sales in the third and fourth quarters [1] - Enhanced operational management across production processes, including better balance of mining, production, and sales, has improved efficiency and reduced costs, contributing to the overall performance increase compared to the previous year [1]

Price Movement - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract experienced a "first suppression then rise, strong rally at the end" trend, with prices soaring from 147,600 RMB/ton to 181,520 RMB/ton, an increase of approximately 24.16% [2][8] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 151,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week (January 19) to 164,500 RMB/ton by Thursday (January 22), a total increase of 13,500 RMB/ton [2][8] - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased from 147,500 RMB/ton to 161,000 RMB/ton, also a total increase of 13,500 RMB/ton [2][8] Supply Side - According to SMM statistics, some lithium salt manufacturers have begun to schedule maintenance, which is expected to lead to a reduction in output [3][9] - The total weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,217 tons, down from 22,605 tons the previous week [3][9] - Specific outputs included spodumene-derived lithium carbonate at 13,914 tons (down from 14,124 tons), mica-derived at 2,882 tons (down from 2,936 tons), salt lake-derived at 3,115 tons (down from 3,145 tons), and recycled lithium carbonate at 3,115 tons (down from 3,145 tons) [3][9] Consumption Side - Data from Baichuan indicates that the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 20.00% month-on-month, while ternary materials fell by 1.37% [3][9] - The demand for downstream production has increased compared to early month forecasts, but remains down month-on-month [3][9] - The energy storage sector maintains optimistic demand expectations, while the seasonal downturn in power batteries and maintenance schedules at some positive electrode material factories have constrained current procurement demand [3][9] Inventory and Profitability - Current spot inventory stands at 108,896 tons, a decrease of 783 tons month-on-month [4][10] - Smelter inventory is at 19,834 tons (up 107 tons), while downstream inventory is at 37,592 tons (up 1,940 tons), and other inventory is at 51,470 tons (down 2,830 tons) [4][10] - Despite a generally sufficient total import of lithium ore, miners' willingness to maintain prices is strong, leading to rising costs for companies relying on external raw materials, which supports lithium carbonate prices [4][10] Market Strategy - The current price increase relies on supply disruptions and demand front-loading; if supply recovers or demand is overstretched, prices may easily adjust [5][11] - A range-bound trading strategy is recommended, focusing on consumption and inventory turning points, with considerations for selling high to hedge [5][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Yahua Group's lithium salt products primarily serve leading domestic and international cathode material manufacturers, battery producers, and automotive companies [2] - The company has stable long-term customer order demand and is continuously expanding its domestic and international customer base while optimizing its customer structure [2] - Specific sales figures will be disclosed in the company's regular reports [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhaoxin Co., Ltd. is actively engaging in strategic investments and partnerships in the lithium industry, focusing on enhancing shareholder returns while exploring opportunities for industrial integration [2] Group 1: Company Information - Zhaoxin Co., Ltd. holds a 30% stake in Shanghai Zhongli Industrial Co., Ltd., which produces lithium salts, rubidium salts, and cesium salts [2] - The company plans to acquire a 15% stake in Qinghai Jintai through legal proceedings by 2025 [2] - Zhaoxin Co., Ltd. emphasizes its commitment to prudent evaluation of industrial integration opportunities [2] Group 2: Strategic Development - The company aims to balance strategic development with shareholder returns in its investment decisions [2] - Zhaoxin Co., Ltd. will strictly adhere to information disclosure obligations regarding the arrangements of its equity assets [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint - The report focuses on the high - level oscillation of lithium carbonate and suggests paying attention to the actual production cut situation of cathode materials [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 120,000 yuan, the trading volume is 5,997 lots, and the open interest is 11,285 lots. For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 121,580 yuan, the trading volume is 392,450 lots, and the open interest is 490,194 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 20,281 lots [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2601 is - 1,500 yuan, spot - 2605 is - 3,080 yuan, 2601 - 2605 is - 1,580 yuan, electric carbon - industrial carbon is 3,000 yuan, and spot - CIF is 20,654 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,548 yuan, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,465 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,500 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,500 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 114,600 yuan, etc. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 117,373 yuan/ton, up 1,564 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [2] - Zhongkuang Resources' subsidiary's 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical renovation project was officially ignited and put into trial production on January 2, 2026. The total investment is about 121 million yuan. After the project is completed and put into production, the total designed annual production capacity of battery - grade lithium salt will increase from 41,000 tons to 71,000 tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [3]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to run in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak operation. The lithium carbonate market is expected to move in a range, with investors being warned of capital and sentiment fluctuations and focusing on marginal supply and demand [2][4][5]. Summary by Category Finished Product - **Logic**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year. The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little price support [3][4]. - **Viewpoint**: The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Logic**: The futures price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 120,360 yuan/ton yesterday, with trading volume decreasing by 27.5% to 730,000 lots and open interest slightly decreasing to 671,500 lots. The net short position of the main contract continued, and the long - short ratio increased. The basis of the main contract was - 20,860 yuan/ton, at a near - one - year low. The futures market's expectation of future prices is significantly higher than that of the spot market. On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon is 99,500 yuan/ton, and the price continues to rise. Upstream lithium salt plants mainly focus on long - term contracts, downstream material plants are cautious about high prices, and trading among traders is light. In terms of fundamentals, the supply of lithium carbonate is steadily increasing but at a slower pace, short - term demand has slightly decreased, and long - term demand remains resilient. The inventory is in a state of destocking, but the slope has slowed down, and the overall inventory in the industry is still tight. Policy - wise, regulatory tightening is clear, and the industry is promoting the exit of backward production capacity. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference's deployments provide long - term support. The market sentiment is transitioning from "expectation - driven" to "fundamental verification" [3][4][5]. - **Viewpoint**: The lithium carbonate market is expected to move in a range. Investors should be vigilant about capital and sentiment fluctuations and focus on marginal supply and demand. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, production capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience, sample inventory destocking slope, and capital and sentiment [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The main logic is the tight supply - demand balance and emotional swings caused by news. The main bullish factors are the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. The main bearish factor is the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline. The expected price of lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 107,660 - 111,780 [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,998 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26%, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in December 2025 will be 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00% [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 103,658 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,524 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrates is 104,486 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%, resulting in a loss of - 8,298 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 99,792 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.93%, resulting in a loss of - 6,028 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On December 19, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 97,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 13,850 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.58%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.58%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position decreased [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products showed an upward trend. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.45%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.52% [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The supply - side data shows that the weekly operating rate was 83.52%, remaining unchanged. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 95,350 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.35%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.86%. The demand - side data shows that the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 412,850 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.69%, and the monthly export volume was 5,476,869 kg, a year - on - year increase of 77.13% [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of lithium spodumene mines in China has shown an upward trend in recent years, and the total production of domestic lithium mica has also increased [25]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrates has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed over time [25]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [28]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, and the production has shown an upward trend in general. The production is mainly from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycling materials [31]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate has increased, and the main import sources are Chile and Argentina [31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and the production has increased. The production comes from the smelting and causticizing ends [40]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has increased over the years [40]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Purchased Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrates, lithium mica concentrates, and recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have fluctuated. Generally, there have been losses in some cases [46][48]. - **Processing Cost and Profit**: The processing cost and profit of lithium compounds such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have also changed over time [46][48][51]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate have fluctuated. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other parties have different trends [53]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide has also changed, with different trends for smelters and downstream [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Loading Volume**: The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated, and the monthly loading volume of power batteries has increased [57]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has increased over the years [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and the cost - profit situation has also changed. The capacity utilization rate has fluctuated, and the production has increased [66]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a shortage [69]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials has fluctuated, and the cost - profit situation has also changed. The weekly operating rate has fluctuated, and the production has increased [72]. - **Export and Import**: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed over time [74]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium has fluctuated, and the cost - profit situation has also changed. The monthly operating rates of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have fluctuated, and the production has increased [76]. - **Export**: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has increased over the years [79]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles have increased over the years. The sales penetration rate has also increased [84]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles have changed, and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have also fluctuated [88].

Core Viewpoint - Shengxin Lithium Energy has announced two significant developments: the capital increase of its wholly-owned subsidiary and the signing of a long-term cooperation framework agreement with Zhongchuang Xinhang Technology Group, aimed at enhancing business growth and capital optimization [3][5]. Group 1: Capital Increase and Shareholding Changes - Shengxin Lithium Energy's subsidiary, Sichuan Zhiyuan Lithium Industry, will introduce a new investor, Xingyin Financial Asset Investment, through a capital increase of RMB 500 million, resulting in a change in shareholding structure [3][4]. - After the capital increase, the registered capital of Zhiyuan Lithium will rise from RMB 625 million to RMB 833.33 million, with Shengxin Lithium's ownership decreasing from 100% to 75% [3][4]. - The capital raised will primarily be used to repay existing bank loans, thereby optimizing the capital structure of Zhiyuan Lithium [4]. Group 2: Long-term Cooperation Agreement - Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to sign a cooperation framework agreement with Zhongchuang Xinhang for the procurement of a total of 200,000 tons of lithium salt products from 2026 to 2030 [5][6]. - The agreement stipulates that the pricing will be based on market rates, ensuring competitive pricing for customers [6]. - This strategic partnership is expected to enhance the stability and sustainability of Shengxin Lithium's operations, aligning with the growing demand in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [6].