Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of supply - demand game and will experience wide - range oscillations within a certain range [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The futures market of lithium carbonate continued to be weak yesterday. The main contract oscillated upwards in the afternoon and closed at 159,620 yuan/ton, with shrinking trading volume and continuous decline in positions. The market sentiment was cautious. The average spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton [3] Supply - side Situation - Last week, raw material prices were differentiated (spodumene prices generally increased, while lepidolite and amblygonite prices decreased) and remained at a high level. The SMM operating rate rose to 53.41%, and the total output increased to 23,426 tons (+836 tons). In March, imports from Chile were sufficient, supplementing the domestic supply. Overall supply steadily increased, strengthening the medium - term expectation of supply surplus [4] Demand - side Situation - The production schedule expectation in March was optimistic, but downstream acceptance of high prices was low. Last week, the production and inventory of ternary lithium - iron phosphate increased, and the production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming with low inventory, which was a structural highlight. However, downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices, forming a tug - of - war with upstream price - holding [4] Inventory Situation - Last week, the SMM four - location social inventory decreased to 42,500 tons (-490 tons), the sample weekly inventory decreased to 99,000 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 27.8 days, maintaining a tight - balance pattern overall. Refineries continued to reduce inventory, and downstream inventory increased to 45,600 tons [4] Macro - policy Impact - Internationally, the 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. The tense situation between the US and Iran continues, and the geopolitical risk premium still exists, disturbing the market sentiment. The weakening of the global interest - rate cut expectation puts pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. Domestically, the subsidy for car trade - ins and the battery export tax rebate (officially implemented on April 1st, currently in the last window period) stimulate terminal consumption. The management method for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries optimizes the domestic supply structure in the long term and raises the cost support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support the long - term supply - demand balance. The 2026 government work report mentioned zero - carbon parks/factories, which is expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The lithium carbonate market will continue the pattern of tight supply - demand balance. The escalation of the Middle - East situation has triggered capital panic, leading to an oscillating correction [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate dropped by the daily limit to 150,860 yuan/ton due to geopolitical influence. The trading volume nearly doubled compared to the previous period, the open interest decreased, and the net long - short ratio increased significantly. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 441 lots to 37,755 lots [2]. - On the spot side, the average price of SMM electric carbon is 161,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon remains at 3,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers are reluctant to sell, while downstream material factories are more willing to buy at lower prices, with active market inquiries and significantly increased trading enthusiasm [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the prices of various raw materials increased compared to February 13. The SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (a 3.73% increase compared to February 12), and the weekly total output increased to 21,822 tons (+1,638 tons), indicating a marginal increase in supply [3]. - **Demand**: Demand showed differentiation. Last week, lithium iron phosphate production and inventory increased, while ternary production decreased and inventory was reduced. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In February, the NBS lithium - battery output was 169.01GWh, a 12.9% month - on - month decrease. Energy storage cells had strong production and sales and low inventory, being a structural highlight [3]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory decreased by 1,690 tons to 44,520 tons, and the sample weekly total inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, maintaining an overall tight - balance pattern [3]. 3.3 Macro - policy and Environment - **Domestic Policy**: Subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries raise the recycling threshold, eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost - support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference work together to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - **Domestic Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cuts strengthen the long - term positive atmosphere [4]. - **International Situation**: In February, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House's 15% temporary tariff policy improved the marginal profit of exports, benefiting demand during the window period. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased risk - aversion sentiment and greater fluctuations in the US dollar index, which may intensify short - term price fluctuations. However, its impact is subject to the dominance of the tight supply - demand balance pattern in the lithium market, being a short - term emotional disturbance rather than a trend reversal [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment of capital risk aversion has increased, and the market is in a state of shock and consolidation. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation effect of macro - policies, marginal changes in costs and supply - demand, capacity release progress, as well as capital and sentiment [2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 147,220 yuan/ton with a narrow - range shock. The trading volume dropped significantly to 311,900 lots, and the open interest slightly increased to 359,900 lots. The net short position of the main capital continued, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly month - on - month. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,030 to 34,114 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 153,000 yuan/ton, with an electric - industrial price difference of 3,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt factories had a strong price - holding sentiment and a weak willingness to sell scattered orders. Downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and mainly adopted a strategy of purchasing at low prices. The overall market inquiry and transactions were lighter than before [2] Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, raw material markets generally rose. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 49.5% (-1.49%). Except for salt lakes, the operating rates of other processes decreased. The total SMM production was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [3] Demand - There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the SMM lithium iron phosphate production increased by 1.0% month - on - month with an increase in inventory accumulation; the ternary production decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and was gradually destocking. The production of power cells decreased slightly last week. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [3] Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of SMM's four - location samples decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month, and the sample weekly inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days increased to 28.5 days, the downstream inventory days increased to 10.8 days, and the days of upstream and other links decreased, showing a significant differentiation in inventory structure [3] Macro - policy Level - On the demand side, subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax - rebate policies provided multiple incentives to stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which would improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure in the long term and raising the cost support center. In terms of industrial planning, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference formed synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts indirectly strengthened the long - term macro - favorable atmosphere [4]

Market Changes - On January 30, the spot settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 158,500 CNY/ton, a decrease of 6,000 CNY from the previous working day, influenced by a continuous decline in market conditions, leading to increased selling enthusiasm among some traders, while major lithium salt manufacturers remain in a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) was 158,000 CNY/ton, down 3,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - In the futures market, most contracts hit the limit down, with the main contract closing at 148,200 CNY/ton, a drop of 18,300 CNY from the previous working day, and a noticeable decrease in open interest [1] - The net short position for lithium carbonate main contracts decreased by 29.5%, indicating a weakening of short-term downward momentum [1] ICC Lithium Battery Settlement Prices - The prices for various lithium products on January 30 compared to January 29 are as follows: - Lithium concentrate: 2,170 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY - Battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%): 15.85 CNY/kg, down 0.6 CNY - Lithium hydroxide (56.5%): 15.8 CNY/kg, down 0.3 CNY - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): 5.36 CNY/kg, down 0.1 CNY - Ternary materials: 20.75 CNY/kg, down 0.2 CNY - Prismatic energy storage cells (lithium iron phosphate): 0.375 CNY/Wh, unchanged [2] Industry Focus - In Australia, the lithium ore shipment volume from Bunbury Port in January 2026 was 158,900 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 58.58% and a year-on-year increase of 0.69% [5] Company Insights - The current average price level for energy storage cells indicates that second-tier companies can withstand lithium carbonate prices around 154,000 CNY [4] - The recent drop in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to the decline in precious metals and increased financial regulation, as well as the acceptance levels of downstream users. Rapid price increases have led to some energy storage projects being stalled, potentially affecting short-term project deliveries [6] - Looking ahead, various regions are gradually implementing energy storage capacity compensation policies, which are expected to raise the internal rate of return (IRR) conservatively by 1%-2%, with some areas seeing higher adjustments. The implementation of energy storage subsidy policies is likely to significantly influence the price trends of lithium carbonate in February and March [6]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit for the year 2025 to be between 600 million and 680 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 133.36% to 164.47% [2] - The net profit for the fourth quarter alone is projected to be between 266.01 million and 346.01 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 159.51% to 237.56% [2] Reasons for Performance Change - The company has stable orders from high-quality clients, and there has been a rebound in lithium salt market prices in the second half of the year, leading to significant growth in product sales in the third and fourth quarters [1] - Enhanced operational management across production processes, including better balance of mining, production, and sales, has improved efficiency and reduced costs, contributing to the overall performance increase compared to the previous year [1]

Price Movement - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract experienced a "first suppression then rise, strong rally at the end" trend, with prices soaring from 147,600 RMB/ton to 181,520 RMB/ton, an increase of approximately 24.16% [2][8] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 151,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week (January 19) to 164,500 RMB/ton by Thursday (January 22), a total increase of 13,500 RMB/ton [2][8] - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased from 147,500 RMB/ton to 161,000 RMB/ton, also a total increase of 13,500 RMB/ton [2][8] Supply Side - According to SMM statistics, some lithium salt manufacturers have begun to schedule maintenance, which is expected to lead to a reduction in output [3][9] - The total weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,217 tons, down from 22,605 tons the previous week [3][9] - Specific outputs included spodumene-derived lithium carbonate at 13,914 tons (down from 14,124 tons), mica-derived at 2,882 tons (down from 2,936 tons), salt lake-derived at 3,115 tons (down from 3,145 tons), and recycled lithium carbonate at 3,115 tons (down from 3,145 tons) [3][9] Consumption Side - Data from Baichuan indicates that the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 20.00% month-on-month, while ternary materials fell by 1.37% [3][9] - The demand for downstream production has increased compared to early month forecasts, but remains down month-on-month [3][9] - The energy storage sector maintains optimistic demand expectations, while the seasonal downturn in power batteries and maintenance schedules at some positive electrode material factories have constrained current procurement demand [3][9] Inventory and Profitability - Current spot inventory stands at 108,896 tons, a decrease of 783 tons month-on-month [4][10] - Smelter inventory is at 19,834 tons (up 107 tons), while downstream inventory is at 37,592 tons (up 1,940 tons), and other inventory is at 51,470 tons (down 2,830 tons) [4][10] - Despite a generally sufficient total import of lithium ore, miners' willingness to maintain prices is strong, leading to rising costs for companies relying on external raw materials, which supports lithium carbonate prices [4][10] Market Strategy - The current price increase relies on supply disruptions and demand front-loading; if supply recovers or demand is overstretched, prices may easily adjust [5][11] - A range-bound trading strategy is recommended, focusing on consumption and inventory turning points, with considerations for selling high to hedge [5][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Yahua Group's lithium salt products primarily serve leading domestic and international cathode material manufacturers, battery producers, and automotive companies [2] - The company has stable long-term customer order demand and is continuously expanding its domestic and international customer base while optimizing its customer structure [2] - Specific sales figures will be disclosed in the company's regular reports [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhaoxin Co., Ltd. is actively engaging in strategic investments and partnerships in the lithium industry, focusing on enhancing shareholder returns while exploring opportunities for industrial integration [2] Group 1: Company Information - Zhaoxin Co., Ltd. holds a 30% stake in Shanghai Zhongli Industrial Co., Ltd., which produces lithium salts, rubidium salts, and cesium salts [2] - The company plans to acquire a 15% stake in Qinghai Jintai through legal proceedings by 2025 [2] - Zhaoxin Co., Ltd. emphasizes its commitment to prudent evaluation of industrial integration opportunities [2] Group 2: Strategic Development - The company aims to balance strategic development with shareholder returns in its investment decisions [2] - Zhaoxin Co., Ltd. will strictly adhere to information disclosure obligations regarding the arrangements of its equity assets [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint - The report focuses on the high - level oscillation of lithium carbonate and suggests paying attention to the actual production cut situation of cathode materials [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 120,000 yuan, the trading volume is 5,997 lots, and the open interest is 11,285 lots. For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 121,580 yuan, the trading volume is 392,450 lots, and the open interest is 490,194 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 20,281 lots [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2601 is - 1,500 yuan, spot - 2605 is - 3,080 yuan, 2601 - 2605 is - 1,580 yuan, electric carbon - industrial carbon is 3,000 yuan, and spot - CIF is 20,654 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,548 yuan, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,465 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,500 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,500 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 114,600 yuan, etc. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 117,373 yuan/ton, up 1,564 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [2] - Zhongkuang Resources' subsidiary's 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical renovation project was officially ignited and put into trial production on January 2, 2026. The total investment is about 121 million yuan. After the project is completed and put into production, the total designed annual production capacity of battery - grade lithium salt will increase from 41,000 tons to 71,000 tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [3]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to run in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak operation. The lithium carbonate market is expected to move in a range, with investors being warned of capital and sentiment fluctuations and focusing on marginal supply and demand [2][4][5]. Summary by Category Finished Product - **Logic**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year. The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little price support [3][4]. - **Viewpoint**: The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Logic**: The futures price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 120,360 yuan/ton yesterday, with trading volume decreasing by 27.5% to 730,000 lots and open interest slightly decreasing to 671,500 lots. The net short position of the main contract continued, and the long - short ratio increased. The basis of the main contract was - 20,860 yuan/ton, at a near - one - year low. The futures market's expectation of future prices is significantly higher than that of the spot market. On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon is 99,500 yuan/ton, and the price continues to rise. Upstream lithium salt plants mainly focus on long - term contracts, downstream material plants are cautious about high prices, and trading among traders is light. In terms of fundamentals, the supply of lithium carbonate is steadily increasing but at a slower pace, short - term demand has slightly decreased, and long - term demand remains resilient. The inventory is in a state of destocking, but the slope has slowed down, and the overall inventory in the industry is still tight. Policy - wise, regulatory tightening is clear, and the industry is promoting the exit of backward production capacity. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference's deployments provide long - term support. The market sentiment is transitioning from "expectation - driven" to "fundamental verification" [3][4][5]. - **Viewpoint**: The lithium carbonate market is expected to move in a range. Investors should be vigilant about capital and sentiment fluctuations and focus on marginal supply and demand. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, production capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience, sample inventory destocking slope, and capital and sentiment [5].