晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：震荡上行 聚焦供需边际变化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策、矿山复产消息、产能释放进度、下游 需求韧性及高价接受度、样本库存去化斜率、资金与情绪 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2026 年 1 月 6 日 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：区间震荡企稳 规避短期波动风险 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 逻辑:上一交易日碳酸锂期货区间震荡，主力合约收至 121580 元/吨， 成交缩至 39.25 万手， ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：博弈降温 区间震荡企稳 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成文时间： 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货日内呈现宽幅震荡态势，主力合约收至 121580 元/吨，成交缩至 45.95 万手，持仓量维持 51.13 万手，市场博弈明显降温。 资金面来看，主力净空格局延续，注册仓单持续增加，市场供给预期有所 宽松。现货端，SMM 数据显示电碳均价与昨日齐平，维持 118000 元/吨 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：库存偏紧格局延续 区间高位运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 观点：高位运行，规避追涨风险，聚焦供需边际 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策落地、产能释放进度、下游需求韧性及 高价接受度、样本库存去化斜率、资金与情绪 重要声明： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂主力合约低开收高至123520元/吨，成交缩量至92.5万手， 持仓减至 60.7 万手，多空比例持续上行，主力净空格局延续，注册仓单增加。 现货端，SMM 数据显示电碳均价 104900 元/吨延续上行，主力合约基差-18620 元/吨，期货对未来价格的预期显著高于现货，资金情绪推动期价脱离基本面特 征明显。市场成交端，上游大部分锂盐厂以保长协为主、散单较少；下游材料厂 高价观望，刚需采购及长协客供加量为主；贸易商成交清淡。 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to run in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak operation. The lithium carbonate market is expected to move in a range, with investors being warned of capital and sentiment fluctuations and focusing on marginal supply and demand [2][4][5]. Summary by Category Finished Product - **Logic**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year. The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little price support [3][4]. - **Viewpoint**: The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Logic**: The futures price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 120,360 yuan/ton yesterday, with trading volume decreasing by 27.5% to 730,000 lots and open interest slightly decreasing to 671,500 lots. The net short position of the main contract continued, and the long - short ratio increased. The basis of the main contract was - 20,860 yuan/ton, at a near - one - year low. The futures market's expectation of future prices is significantly higher than that of the spot market. On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon is 99,500 yuan/ton, and the price continues to rise. Upstream lithium salt plants mainly focus on long - term contracts, downstream material plants are cautious about high prices, and trading among traders is light. In terms of fundamentals, the supply of lithium carbonate is steadily increasing but at a slower pace, short - term demand has slightly decreased, and long - term demand remains resilient. The inventory is in a state of destocking, but the slope has slowed down, and the overall inventory in the industry is still tight. Policy - wise, regulatory tightening is clear, and the industry is promoting the exit of backward production capacity. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference's deployments provide long - term support. The market sentiment is transitioning from "expectation - driven" to "fundamental verification" [3][4][5]. - **Viewpoint**: The lithium carbonate market is expected to move in a range. Investors should be vigilant about capital and sentiment fluctuations and focus on marginal supply and demand. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, production capacity release progress, downstream demand resilience, sample inventory destocking slope, and capital and sentiment [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a state of shock consolidation [4] - The view on lithium carbonate is that it will stabilize with range - bound fluctuations, and one should pay attention to marginal supply - demand changes and be vigilant against emotional fluctuations [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui regional short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and restart times are expected to affect a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills' shutdowns will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Finished products continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 111,400 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in trading volume and positions, and the net short position of the main contract continued. The average price of electric carbon was 97,650 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend, and the basis of the main contract was - 13,750 yuan/ton. Market activity was extremely low [3] - Fundamentally, the year - on - year increase in raw material prices was over 7%, strengthening cost support. As of December 18, the total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, with a 0.21% increase from the previous period, and the weekly output was 22,045 tons, also with a 0.21% increase [4] - There were significant differences in production processes. The lithium - spodumene process became the core increment in production, and with the gradual commissioning of new projects, the industry's production capacity was steadily released [4] - On the demand side, the downstream lithium - battery industry chain showed a differentiated trend. As of December 19, the production of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased by 2.6% and 2.2% respectively from the previous period, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of power batteries decreased by 1.48% from the previous period but maintained a 30.34% year - on - year high growth [4] - In the terminal market, as of December 14, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 57.30% from the previous period but decreased by 7.62% year - on - year, showing short - term fluctuations [4] - In terms of inventory, as of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased slightly by 0.9% to 110,400 tons, continuing the de - stocking state, and the de - stocking slope slowed down [4] - The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% to 26.2 days. Other links had periodic inventory accumulation, and the social inventory showed an inventory accumulation state, with a 4.98% year - on - year increase and a 54.71% decrease from the previous period. The overall industry inventory remained tight [4] - Macro - policies such as the Fed's interest - rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference provided support for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [5] - Battery manufacturers' collective price increases drove market sentiment to warm up, but one should pay attention to events such as overseas resource/restart news and domestic lithium - mine production - capacity dynamics [5] - The later focus includes the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of production - capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the de - stocking slope of sample inventory, and funds and emotions [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to move downward with a weak trend and operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, while lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a range-bound manner, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of total output. Six Anhui short - process steel mills will have one stop on January 5th and most around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [2] - The finished products continued to decline and hit a new low. In the weak supply - demand situation, the price center moved down due to pessimistic market sentiment. This year's winter storage is sluggish and provides weak price support. The outlook is for volatile consolidation [1][2] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate contract closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, with slightly reduced trading volume, slightly increased positions, and a continued net - short position of the main force. The average price of electric carbon was 97,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 8,410 yuan/ton. Market transactions rely on a small number of enterprises' rigid - demand purchases, with few actual deals [1] - As of December 18, the weekly production rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, a 0.21% MoM increase, and the output was 22,045 tons, a 0.21% MoM increase. The spodumene process was the core growth factor. The 10,000 - ton/year spodumene production line of Jiangxi Qiangyu New Energy was ignited on December 18 [2] - As of December 18, affected by weakening demand from battery cell manufacturers and maintenance of some lithium iron phosphate plants, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.2% MoM. The inventories of ternary and lithium iron phosphate continued to decline [2] - In November, the production of new - energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased YoY. As of December 7, the sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly YoY and the penetration rate increased MoM, showing short - term adjustment but long - term resilience [2] - As of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.9% MoM to 110,400 tons, continuing the destocking trend with a slower slope. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% MoM to 26.2 days. Although there was inventory accumulation in other links, the overall inventory was still tight, supporting prices [2] - The Fed's interest - rate cuts, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference are positive for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate. The market sentiment is affected by the tight supply - demand balance, overseas resource/restart news, and domestic lithium mine capacity dynamics, leading to continued capital games [3]