Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on macroeconomic data, industry news, and inventory changes in each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Wednesday, A - shares rose strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. The semiconductor产业链 was hot, while high - dividend sectors such as banks and coal had a slight correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and their basis further repaired [2][3]. - News: China counter - sanctioned two EU banks. The US July CPI was in line with expectations, and the market expected a Fed rate cut in September [3][4]. - Capital: A - share trading volume increased significantly, with a turnover of over 2.15 trillion. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: The basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.14%, 0.21%, - 0.87%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price near 6400 on rallies, with a moderately bullish outlook [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.02%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were in a comfortable state, and the liquidity might converge slightly in the short term [5][6]. - Fundamentals: China's M2, M1, and M0 balances increased year - on - year in July. The increase in social financing scale was 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, but entity credit decreased [6]. - Operation suggestion: The credit in July was weaker year - on - year, and the bond market sentiment stabilized. The 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the tax - period funds and new bond issuance pricing [6]. Precious Metals - News: The US Treasury Secretary said that the US might increase sanctions on Russia. Some Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts, and the market continued to digest the expectation of a September rate cut [7]. - Market: International gold prices rose slightly, closing at $3355.88 per ounce, up 0.23%. International silver prices rose 1.57% to $38.502 per ounce, hitting a three - week high [8]. - Outlook: The market sentiment was affected by trade agreements, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increased. Technically, gold faced resistance at $3450. It is recommended to build a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options on price pullbacks. Silver may fluctuate in a range, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed with put options [8][10]. Shipping - Container Shipping Futures - Spot price: As of August 14, the spot prices of major shipping companies were provided [11]. - Index: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index also fell [11]. - Fundamentals: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone and US manufacturing PMIs were provided [11]. - Logic: The futures price declined, and the main contract broke through the 1400 - point support. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, the price of the October contract may be lower than last year [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and short positions in the 10 - contract can be held [12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased. The willingness of holders to sell at low prices was low [13]. - Macro: Trump signed the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days. The US July CPI data increased the probability of a September rate cut [13][14]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decline slightly in August [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods decreased, while that of recycled copper rods increased. The domestic demand was resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [15]. - Inventory: COMEX and LME copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: The market expected a Fed rate cut in September, and the short - term tariff risk was released. The supply and demand were weak during the off - season, and the price was expected to fluctuate in a range [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000 [17]. Alumina - Spot: On August 13, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Supply: The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The alumina port inventory and warehouse receipts increased [18]. - Logic: The supply - side concerns had limited impact, and the market was slightly oversupplied. The price may fluctuate between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract may run between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased [19]. - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio decreased [20][21]. - Demand: The downstream was in the off - season, and the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum foil, etc. were generally low [21]. - Inventory: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories increased [21]. - Logic: The market increased the bet on a Fed rate cut in September, and the aluminum price rose slightly. The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price may be under pressure in the short term, running between 20000 - 21000 [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 20000 - 21000, paying attention to the resistance at 21000 [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in June increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and cost factors [23]. - Demand: The demand in July was under pressure, and the trading activity decreased. The inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The price followed the aluminum price and fluctuated strongly. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 19200 - 20200 [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 19400 - 20400 [24]. Zinc - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream was reluctant to buy at high prices [24]. - Supply: The zinc ore TC remained stable. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - Demand: The spot premium of zinc decreased. The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement was weak [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [28]. - Logic: The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The zinc price may fluctuate between 22000 - 23000 [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - Spot: On August 13, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream was reluctant to replenish inventory [29]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore imports in June were at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter [31]. - Demand: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry declined, and the demand was expected to be weak [30][31]. - Inventory: The LME inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased slightly [30]. - Logic: The rate - cut expectation drove the tin price up. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the Myanmar tin ore imports [31][32]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The refined nickel production in July was at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and high - priced nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: The market sentiment was stable, and the price may fluctuate between 120000 - 126000. The medium - term supply was loose, restricting the upside [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 120000 - 126000 [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [35]. - Raw materials: The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel - iron price was strong, and the chrome - iron price was weak [35][37]. - Supply: The estimated stainless - steel production in August increased month - on - month [36]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased slightly [36]. - Logic: The price decreased slightly, the cost was supportive, but the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 13000 - 13500 [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 13000 - 13500 [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The upstream was bullish [37]. - Supply: The lithium carbonate production in July increased, and the production in August is expected to increase [38]. - Demand: The demand was optimistic, and the cell orders were okay [38]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased, the upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely. The fundamentals were in a tight balance, and the price may fluctuate around 85,000. It is recommended to wait and see and go long on dips [40]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see cautiously and go long lightly on dips [41]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The steel futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreased [42]. - Cost and profit: The cost increased, but the steel price also rose, and the steel mill profit increased. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - Supply: The iron - element production from January to July increased year - on - year. The current iron - water production was stable, and the scrap - steel consumption increased. The rebar production increased, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased [42]. - Demand: The apparent demand for the five major steel products from January to July was basically flat year - on - year. The current apparent demand decreased [43]. - Inventory: The inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the increase in trader inventory [43]. - Viewpoint: The steel price was supported by the small increase in steel mill inventory. The 10 - contract price may fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, paying attention to the support levels of 3400 for hot - rolled coil and 3200 for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of mainstream iron - ore powders decreased slightly [45]. - Futures: The near - month 2509 contract increased, and the main 2601 contract remained unchanged [45]. - Basis: The basis of different iron - ore varieties was provided [45]. - Demand: The daily average iron - water production decreased slightly, the blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased [45]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment and port arrival decreased this week [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average port clearance increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [46]. - Viewpoint: The 09 contract fluctuated. The iron - ore price may follow the steel price. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [46]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking - coal futures price decreased, and the spot price of some coal varieties was loose, while the Mongolian coal price was stable [47][49]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased, and the production and inventory decreased [47][48]. - Demand: The coking and blast - furnace operating rates were stable, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Inventory: The overall coking - coal inventory was at a medium level, with the coal - mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [48]. - Viewpoint: The coking - coal market was stable. There was an expectation of coal - mine production restriction in August. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [49][50]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures price decreased, and the sixth - round price increase was implemented. The port price followed the increase [51][52]. - Supply: The coke production was stable, and the coal - mine复产 was less than expected [51][52]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was supportive [52]. - Inventory: The coking - plant inventory decreased, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [52]. - Viewpoint: The coke market was in short supply, but the previous bullish expectations were over - exhausted. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [52]. Agricultural Products Meal - Spot: On August 13, the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices increased. The soybean meal trading volume decreased, and the rapeseed meal trading volume was zero [53][54]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's August supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean planting area and ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean and soybean meal exports in August were expected to increase, while the EU soybean imports from July to August 10 decreased [54][55]. - Outlook: The Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% margin on Canadian rapeseed imports. The US soybean price rose, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased. It is recommended to hold the previous 01 long positions [55]. Live Pigs - Spot: The live - pig spot price was stable, and the downstream procurement was smooth. The breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices [56]. - Data: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows decreased, and the inventory of breeding sows increased slightly [56]. - Outlook: The current supply and demand were weak. The long - term 01 contract was affected by policies. It is not recommended to short blindly, but also pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - Spot: On August 13, the corn prices in Northeast China decreased slightly, and the prices in North China were stable. The port prices were stable or increased slightly [58]. - Fundamentals: The corn inventory in the four northern ports decreased, and the inventory in the Guangdong port also decreased [59]. - Outlook: The corn futures price rebounded due to market sentiment, but the overall sentiment was weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. In the long term, pay attention to the new - season corn growth [59].