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广发期货日评-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 02:25
- FREE F 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 节前资金以获利止盈为主,长假中海外市场均表现 积极,旅游出行数据保持同比增长,综合提振市场 IF2512 风险偏好。科技主线持续活跃,节后A股主要指数 IH2512 节后开门红,周期板块火热上扬 股指 如期迎来开门红,但亦有冲高回落现象,推荐逢回 IC2512 IM2512 调轻仓卖出MO2511执行价6800附近看跌期权收 取权利金。 如果10年期国债利率上行至1.8%以上区间配置价 12512 值有所回升。短期期债预计继续区间震荡, TF2512 国债 长假后债市开门红,期债各品种均走暖 TS2512 T2512震荡区间可能在107.4-108.3,建议以观 金融 望为主等待超调机会。 TL2512 黄金操作上单边保持谨慎低多思路,期权在波动率 白银现货供应紧张价格盘中突破新高 地缘政治风险缓和贵金属 见顶后可逢高卖出虚值期权;关注伦敦白银拆借和 AU2512 贵金属 AG2512 租赁利率等短期供应紧张情况能否缓解,10-11月 神高回落 为非交割月上行 ...
文字早评2025/10/10星期五:宏观金融类-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:34
2、商务部发布公告,不可靠实体清单工作机制决定将反无人机技术公司、TechInsights 公司及其分支 机构等 14 个外国实体列入不可靠实体清单; 3、多家券商将信用账户持有的中芯国际两融折算率由 0.7 调整为 0.00,佰维存储两融折算率由 0.5 调 整为 0.00;股票折算率调为 0 情况是券商统一动作,这一调整是依据规则开展常态化操作,当前折算率 为 0 股票数量已超千只; 4、现货黄金维持在 4000 美元左右的高位区间。有部分银行出于风控的考量,近期已经在收缩甚至取消 上金所的相关业务。 期指基差比例: IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.07%/-0.27%/-0.43%/-0.90%; IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.38%/-1.20%/-1.76%/-3.87%; IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.53%/-1.59%/-2.59%/-5.48%; IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季:0.11%/0.08%/0.18%/0.21%。 【策略观点】 文字早评 2025/10/10 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、商务部、海关总署:对超硬材料、部分稀土设备和原辅料、部分中重稀 ...
长假消费增势良好 -20251010
申银万国期货研究· 2025-10-10 01:09
首席 点 评 : 长假消费增势良好 股指: 美国三大指数下跌,国庆节后首个交易日股指开门红,有色金属板块领涨,传媒板块领跌,市 场成交额 2.67 万亿元。资金方面, 9 月 30 日融资余额减少 340.61 亿元至 23783.90 亿元。经过 9 月的 高位震荡,我们认为股指将再次进入方向选择阶段,从当前走势来看,大概率维持多头趋势。资金面来 看,国内流动性环境有望延续宽松,居民有望加大权益类资产配置,同时,随着美联储降息、人民币升 值,外部资金也有望流入国内市场。市场风格方面,虽然科技成长已成为本轮市场趋势性上涨行情中最 核心的主线,但考虑到四季度稳增长政策有望加码、全球货币政策与财政政策有望共振,四季度市场风 格可能会向价值回归并较三季度更加均衡。 双焦: 昨日夜盘双焦盘面走势震荡,持仓量环比基本持平。从昨日公布的钢联数据来看,五大材供应 环比基本持平,但受长假的影响,五大材社会库存环比大幅增加、表需环比明显回落,库存增量主要由 螺纹贡献。短期来看,钢材的持续累库与盘面利润走缩、当前蒙煤通关高位的预期、节后高价资源的市 场接受度存疑、以及同期低位的近远月价差均会对盘面走势构成压力,但 10 月下旬的 ...
商务预报:9月22日至28日生产资料价格总体平稳
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-10-09 02:20
据商务部市场运行监测系统显示,9月22日至28日,全国生产资料市场价格与前一周(环比,下同)基 本持平。 基础化学原料价格小幅下降,其中硫酸、聚丙烯、甲醇分别下降3.8%、1.3%和0.5%,纯碱与前一周基 本持平。 成品油批发价格保持稳定,其中0号柴油、92号汽油、95号汽油均与前一周基本持平。 橡胶价格略有上涨,其中天然橡胶、合成橡胶均上涨0.1%。 煤炭价格稳中有涨,其中动力煤每吨759元,与前一周基本持平,炼焦煤、无烟块煤每吨1021元和1142 元,分别上涨2.1%和0.5%。 有色金属价格以涨为主,其中铜上涨1.7%,锌、铝分别下降0.6%和0.1%。 化肥价格略有下降,其中尿素下降0.6%,三元复合肥与前一周基本持平。 钢材价格基本持平,其中槽钢、热轧带钢每吨3639元和3574元分别下降0.5%和0.4%,高速线材、焊接 钢管每吨3567元和3793元,与前一周基本持平,螺纹钢每吨3391元,上涨0.2%。 ...
商务预报:9月22日至28日食用农产品价格略有上涨 生产资料价格总体平稳
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-10-09 02:03
据商务部市场运行监测系统显示,9月22日至28日,全国食用农产品市场价格比前一周(环比,下同) 上涨0.6%,生产资料市场价格与前一周基本持平。 食用农产品市场:30种蔬菜平均批发价格每公斤4.79元,上涨2.4%,其中莴笋、菜花、苦瓜分别上涨 9.7%、7.4%和6.1%。6种水果平均批发价格小幅上涨,其中西瓜、香蕉、梨分别上涨4.7%、1.4%和 0.9%。禽产品批发价格略有上涨,其中鸡蛋、白条鸡分别上涨0.6%和0.5%。粮油批发价格稳中有涨, 其中豆油、面粉均与前一周持平,大米、花生油、菜籽油分别上涨0.2%、0.1%和0.1%。水产品批发价 格总体平稳,其中大带鱼、大黄鱼分别上涨1.1%和0.8%,鲫鱼与前一周基本持平,鲢鱼、草鱼、鲤鱼 分别下降0.3%、0.2%和0.1%。肉类批发价格小幅波动,其中猪肉每公斤19.54元,下降1.4%,羊肉、牛 肉分别上涨1.0%和0.7%。 生产资料市场:基础化学原料价格小幅下降,其中硫酸、聚丙烯、甲醇分别下降3.8%、1.3%和0.5%, 纯碱与前一周基本持平。化肥价格略有下降,其中尿素下降0.6%,三元复合肥与前一周基本持平。钢 材价格基本持平,其中槽钢、热 ...
申银万国期货首席点评:规模以上工业企业利润同比增长
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:17
Key Points of the Report Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation, with the 9 - month stock index in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][12]. - For bonds, it is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds, as the central bank's policy adjustment awaits central government deployment, and the equity market is strengthening [14]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the outlook for various products varies. For example, crude oil's future depends on OPEC's production increase; methanol is short - term bearish; rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range; and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [15][16][17][19]. - Regarding metals, copper is supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages; zinc may fluctuate weakly in the short - term; and lithium carbonate may oscillate in the short - term with demand and inventory factors at play [21][22][23]. - In the agricultural product sector, protein meal may oscillate at a low level; some oils are showing signs of rebound; and cotton and sugar are expected to have complex short - term trends influenced by supply and demand [27][28][30][31]. - The shipping index of container shipping to Europe may be in a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the focus on shipping companies' price increases and capacity adjustment [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Situation - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 4.69297 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in the previous month. The equipment manufacturing industry was a major driver, with 7 out of 8 sub - industries seeing profit growth [1]. - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, exceeding the expected 0.2% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Analysis Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, while the previous trading day's stock index declined. The oil and petrochemical sector led the gain, and the computer sector led the decline, with a market turnover of 2.17 trillion yuan. On September 25, the margin trading balance increased by 13.288 billion yuan to 2.427411 trillion yuan [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity, but the cross - festival capital tightened. The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased significantly. The Fed restarted interest rate cuts, and the US GDP growth rate was revised up. It is recommended to be bearish on long - term bonds and remain on the sidelines for short - term bonds [13][14]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session rose 1.21%. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban. The global decline rate of oil and gas field production has accelerated. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][15]. - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a historical high. Methanol is short - term bearish [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures oscillated. Supply in some areas improved, and bonded area inventory decreased. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound at night. The price generally fluctuated with the cost. It may continue to oscillate in a low - level range, with attention on demand and supply - side policies [18][19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The short - term market supply and demand are slowly recovering, and attention is on the supply - side contraction. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased. The market has a positive expectation for the glass industry's supply change [4][20]. Metals - **Copper**: The copper price at night decreased by 0.7%. The concentrate supply has been tight, but the smelting output has been growing. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply shortage, supporting the long - term price [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night decreased by 1.25%. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply may be in surplus, and the price may fluctuate weakly [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased. The bullish logic has been weakened, and the price may oscillate in the short - term [23]. - **Double Cokes**: The double - coke futures were weak at night. The steel fundamentals put pressure on coking coal, and investors are advised to operate cautiously before the holiday [24]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' demand for iron ore is supported. Global iron ore shipments decreased, and port inventory decreased rapidly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export of billets is strong. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes, but the exemption period has ended. The domestic market may oscillate at a low level [27]. - **Oils**: The price of soybean oil declined slightly at night, while rapeseed and palm oil were strong. After the digestion of the negative news of Argentina's tax cancellation, the oil price rebounded [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, but also dragged by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar may oscillate after a rebound [30]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market is affected by the new cotton harvest. The price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated and declined on Friday. The SCFI European line price decreased. Shipping companies are trying to raise prices, and the contract may shift to the 12 - month contract. It is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [32]. 3. News Summaries - **International News**: Ukrainian drones attacked Russian refineries, causing fuel shortages in some Russian regions. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports and extend the gasoline export ban [3][6][15]. - **Domestic News**: The "Super Golden Week" of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The tourism market is booming, with changes in travel patterns and consumer preferences [7]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires supporting Xinjiang to improve grain production capacity, promote cotton seed breeding, and develop characteristic industries [8][9].
临沂商城价格指数分析(9月18日—9月24日)
Zhong Guo Fa Zhan Wang· 2025-09-26 10:30
Core Viewpoint - The overall price index of Linyi Mall remains stable at 102.24 points this week, with mixed trends across various categories of goods [1] Price Index Summary - **Building and Decoration Materials**: The price index for this category increased to 105.36 points, up by 0.10 points week-on-week, driven by rising demand in construction and home decoration projects [1] - **Steel**: The steel price index rose to 95.16 points, up by 0.07 points, with the largest increases seen in construction steel, although overall demand remains weak [2] - **Grain, Oil, and Food**: This category's price index increased to 95.23 points, up by 0.01 points, with notable price rises in dried fruits and seasonings due to increased demand ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [3] - **Lumber**: The lumber price index decreased to 97.45 points, down by 0.07 points, affected by weak demand in the real estate market, leading to lower prices for various types of boards [4] - **Agricultural Inputs**: The agricultural inputs price index fell to 87.07 points, down by 0.05 points, with prices for agricultural films declining while some other categories saw slight increases [5] - **Clothing and Accessories**: The price index for clothing and accessories decreased to 103.99 points, down by 0.03 points, with a general downward trend in prices, although children's clothing sales showed some improvement [6]
广发期货日评-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 03:05
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to shock. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial withdrawal would occur [2]. - Without incremental negative news, the 1.8 - 1.83% range may be the high - level range for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term decline in interest rates is also limited [2]. - As the end of the quarter approaches, the liquidity of derivative contracts for gold tightens, and the risk of volatility is relatively large. The silver price is driven by both financial and industrial attributes, with high upward elasticity [2]. - The shipping index on the EC (European line) is rising on the disk, and the steel exports support the black valuation, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate [2]. - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height, with short - term shock as the main trend [2]. - The supply of urea remains loose in the short term, and the demand side lacks strong drivers, so the market is weak [2]. - For agricultural products, the supply prospects of overseas sugar are broad, and new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Stock Index - TMT continues to lead the market, and most stock indices close higher. It is recommended to sell put options on the MO2511 contract with an execution price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [2]. Treasury Bond - The MLF is renewed with an increased amount, and the overall trend of Treasury bond futures is volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the basis spread strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and one can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips or buying out - of - the - money call options. For silver, keep a low - buying strategy as its price fluctuates above $43 [2]. Black Steel - Steel exports support the black valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. Try short - buying on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. Iron Ore - The decline in shipments, the increase in molten iron, and the replenishment demand support the high - level shock of iron ore prices. The 2601 contract of iron ore is regarded as volatile, with a reference range of 780 - 850 [2]. Coal - The coal prices in coal - producing areas are stable with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250, and short the coke 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height. It is recommended to adopt a unilateral band - trading strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502] [2]. Other Chemicals - For various chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling urea on rallies, and paying attention to the pressure levels for PX and PTA long positions [2]. Agricultural Products - For different agricultural products like soybeans, pigs, corn, etc., different trends and trading suggestions are given. For example, for sugar, conduct short - selling on rebounds; for cotton, short in the short term [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, due to news - driven factors, the glass futures market has risen sharply, and it is recommended to watch cautiously. For rubber, the impact of the typhoon is limited, and the rubber price has fallen slightly, so it is recommended to watch [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon, the market sentiment is repaired, and the futures market rebounds, so it is recommended to watch temporarily. For lithium carbonate, driven by the sector sentiment, the futures market strengthens slightly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].
广发早知道:汇总版-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:46
广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88818009 E-Mail:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录: 金融期货: 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属: 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货: 有色金属: 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属: 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品: 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工: 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品: 金融衍生品: 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 9 月 26 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息: 张晓珍(投资咨询资格:Z0003135) 电话:020- 88818009 邮箱:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂(投资咨询资格:Z0016336) 电话:020-88818026 邮箱:qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020- 88818017 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波(投资咨 ...
商务预报:9月15日至21日食用农产品和生产资料价格略有下降
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-09-24 07:58
Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.1% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.68 yuan per kilogram, down 1.5%, with cucumber, spinach, and rapeseed decreasing by 9.7%, 9.5%, and 7.4% respectively [1] - The wholesale price of meat showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 19.81 yuan per kilogram, down 0.8%, while beef remained stable and lamb increased by 0.5% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly increased, with watermelon, pear, and apple rising by 3.0%, 1.1%, and 0.8% respectively [1] - Poultry product prices remained stable, with eggs increasing by 3.8% [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials mainly decreased, with sulfuric acid and methanol dropping by 4.0% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices showed a stable decline, with urea decreasing by 0.3% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices slightly retreated, with zinc, aluminum, and copper decreasing by 0.6%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - The price of coal showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 759 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4% [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with high-speed wire, rebar, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3567 yuan, 3385 yuan, and 3590 yuan per ton, respectively, all showing increases [2]