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贵金属早报-20251111
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The hope that the US government shutdown will end has led to a rapid increase in risk appetite, causing significant rebounds in gold and silver prices. The optimistic expectation of the US ending the shutdown and the rise in risk appetite are driving the continued recovery of gold and silver prices under emotional influence [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The support for gold prices has significantly weakened as the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and concerns about the escalation of China-US tariffs) have significantly improved and even shown a turning trend [10][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US government is on the verge of ending the shutdown, leading to a significant rebound in gold prices. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 2.83% to $4,123.40 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory increased by 1,800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, and the main net position is long with a reduction in long positions [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US government is on the verge of ending the shutdown, risk appetite rebounded, and silver prices rose significantly. Similar to gold, US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures rose 4.70% to $50.41 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory decreased by 13,074 kilograms to 609,978 kilograms, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, and the main net position is long with an increase in long positions [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expectation of the US ending the shutdown is optimistic, risk appetite has rebounded, and gold prices are expected to continue to recover under emotional influence. The Shanghai gold premium remains around 0 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The expectation of the US ending the shutdown is optimistic, risk appetite has rebounded, and silver prices are expected to continue to recover under emotional influence. Additionally, silver being included in the US critical minerals list may reignite tariff concerns and provide support. The silver premium remains at 320 yuan/gram [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's September trade balance and current account - Time TBD: Citigroup's 20th China Summit in Shenzhen from November 11 - 12, G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Canada - 10:00 New Zealand's Q4 2 - year inflation expectation - 15:00 UK's September three - month ILO employment number and unemployment rate - 16:30 Speeches by Bank of England MPC member Greene, ECB Governing Council member Vujcic, and ECB Governing Council member and Dutch Central Bank President Olaf Sleijpen - 18:00 Eurozone's November ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany's November ZEW economic sentiment index - 21:00 Speech by ECB Governing Council member Kocher - Next day 06:15 Participation of RBA Assistant Governor Jones in a fireside chat [16] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is - 2.65, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory increased by 1,800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, which is neutral; the main net position is long with a reduction in long positions, which is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is - 12, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory decreased by 13,074 kilograms to 609,978 kilograms, which is bullish; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line below it, which is neutral; the main net position is long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: As of November 10, 2025, the long position volume was 170,662, an increase of 5,401 (3.27%) compared to November 9; the short position volume was 68,384, an increase of 776 (1.15%); the net position was 102,278, an increase of 4,625 (4.74%) [31]. - **Silver**: As of November 10, 2025, the long position volume was 353,561, a decrease of 1,037 (- 0.29%) compared to November 7; the short position volume was 261,865, an increase of 5,886 (2.30%); the net position was 91,696, a decrease of 6,923 (- 7.02%) [33].