Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is relatively neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively neutral, and the import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production reduction season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,850, with a basis of 110, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is slightly bearish, but the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,756, with a basis of 186, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,200 - 9,800. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil applies, with slightly bearish sentiment but reduced supply pressure in the production reduction season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,420, with a basis of 470, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is relatively high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5] Supply - Related - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Mentioned but no specific data analysis. [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [7][8] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [9][10] - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [11][12] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [17][18] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [19][20] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2019. [23][24] Demand - Related - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Data presented in a chart from 2015 - 2025. [15][16]