证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-22投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8492，基差198，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8500附近区间震荡 每日观点 1.基 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of the MPOB report next week and the further clarification of the US biodiesel policy. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce until March 9, 2026 also affects the market. The production, export, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia in August are expected to change, with expected export growth and inventory accumulation. For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [23][24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil (P2601), rapeseed oil (OI2601), and soybean oil (Y2601) increased by 2.25%, 0.30%, and 1.10% respectively. The spot prices of palm oil decreased by 1.38%, rapeseed oil increased by 0.22%, and soybean oil increased by 1.19% [2]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 4, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were 72 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 119 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 10 yuan/ton (down 108 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of September 5, 2025, the YP spread was - 1076 yuan/ton (down 118 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 29, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.4 tons (down 0.1 tons from the previous week), the palm oil factory commercial inventory was 61.01 tons (up 2.8 tons from the previous week), the national soybean oil factory inventory was 123.88 tons (up 5.28 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 195.29 tons (up 7.98 tons from the previous week) [8]. Supply - side of Palm Oil - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% to 211 tons compared to the previous month. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [13]. Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 905.60 tons (up 15.8 tons from the previous week), the national major oil factory soybean inventory was 696.85 tons (up 14.32 tons from the previous week), and the oil factory operating rate was 61% (down 1% from the previous week). As of September 4, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 587.80 yuan/ton (down 1.8 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil factories was 10 tons (down 5 tons from the previous week). As of September 5, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2285.60 yuan/ton (up 289.4 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. Demand - side - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil factories was 233 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 2000 tons. The POGO spread was 428.24 dollars/ton (down 22.75 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [22]. Strategy Recommendation - For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [25][26]. Next Week's Concerns - The concerns include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil, and weather [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends, basis changes, inventory levels, supply - demand situations of domestic three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil), and provides short - and medium - long - term price forecasts for palm oil [2][35][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From July 25 to August 1, 2025, the palm oil futures主力合约 (P2509) decreased by 0.29% to 8910, and the spot price decreased by 0.04% to 9012; the rapeseed oil futures主力合约 (OI2509) increased by 0.71% to 9524, and the spot price increased by 0.33% to 9622; the soybean oil futures主力合约 (Y2509) increased by 1.60% to 8274, and the spot price increased by 0.48% to 8454 [2]. 3.2 Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of July 31, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 262 yuan/ton (increased by 14 yuan/ton from the previous week), 111 yuan/ton (increased by 13 yuan/ton), and 112 yuan/ton (increased by 44 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 1, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (increased by 158 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 9.55 tons (increased by 0.30 tons from the previous week), the palm oil commercial inventory in factories was 61.55 tons (increased by 2.41 tons), the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills was 108.81 tons (decreased by 0.37 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 179.91 tons (increased by 2.34 tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [16]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - side - As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons (increased by 0.106 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 6.4559 million tons (increased by 0.0335 million tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 58% (increased by 3%). As of August 1, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 722.05 yuan/ton (decreased by 0.85 yuan/ton from the previous week) [21]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - side - As of July 25, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15,000 tons (decreased by 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of August 1, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was 295.20 yuan/ton (increased by 39.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [26]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 200 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 2500 tons, and the POGO spread was 352.24 dollars/ton (decreased by 12 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [32]. 3.6 Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The US biodiesel policy is favorable. - Overseas: According to the USDA June report, the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production of Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4%. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. - Inventory: As of July 25, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 95,500 tons, the palm oil commercial inventory in factories increased to 615,500 tons, and the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills decreased to 1.0881 million tons. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.04%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 0.48%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.33%. - Risks: The production situation of Malaysian palm oil and weather [33]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation 3.7.1 Palm Oil Single - week Summary - This week, palm oil slightly declined by 0.02%. From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year - on - year. Since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively. The EU may allow Indonesian palm oil to enter its market at zero - tariff with a quota system. The BMD crude palm oil futures ended a two - day rising trend. Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased by 9.6% compared to June. India set the reference price for crude palm oil exports in August at 910.91 dollars/ton, higher than 877.89 dollars/ton in July [35]. 3.7.2 Price Forecast - Short - term: Palm oil is hovering around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8750 - 9050. - Medium - long - term: The palm oil主力合约 has broken through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise. The expected fluctuation range is 8600 - 9400 [36]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The production situation of Malaysian palm oil and weather [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy of US biodiesel is favorable. The USDA June report shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production in Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% [30]. - In the short term, palm oil hovers around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8850 - 9200. In the medium - to - long term, the main contract of palm oil breaks through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise, with an expected fluctuation range of 8600 - 9400 [32]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2509) rose from 8964 to 9104, a weekly increase of 1.56%, and the spot price rose from 9048 to 9172, a weekly increase of 1.37%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2509) decreased from 9586 to 9492, a weekly decrease of 0.98%, and the spot price decreased from 9692 to 9590, a weekly decrease of 1.05%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2509) rose from 8160 to 8166, a weekly increase of 0.07%, and the spot price remained unchanged at 8414 [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 248 yuan/ton (an increase of 16 yuan/ton from the previous week), 98 yuan/ton (a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 68 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of July 25, 2025, the YP spread was - 794 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased to 92,500 tons (a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in factories increased to 591,400 tons (an increase of 28,400 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 1,091,800 tons (an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 1,775,700 tons (an increase of 70,400 tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, the ending inventory of Indonesian palm oil decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [15]. Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 797,900 tons (a decrease of 25,200 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major national oil mills was 642,240 tons (a decrease of 15,250 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 55% (a decrease of 4% from the previous week). As of July 24, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 721.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 25.95 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20,000 tons (an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of July 25, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was 255.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 34.76 yuan/ton from the previous week) [23]. Demand Side - On July 24, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 866 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 35,000 tons, and the POGO spread was 364.24 US dollars/ton (an increase of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [29]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, the supply - demand data of Indonesia is favorable, but high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increases and exports decrease, and the expectation of inventory accumulation strengthens, with palm oil fluctuating at a high level. The consumption of Indonesian biodiesel this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters, accounting for 47.5% of the 2025 quota. From July 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.19% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 3.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in July [31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the impact of the tariff war gradually fades, the oil and fat market is expected to return to fundamentals, with short - term prices remaining volatile. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive support, while palm oil may weaken [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on April 28, 2025, were 7814, 8174, and 9333 respectively, with price drops. The basis of each variety showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 76, 48, and 187 respectively, with changes of 0, 4, and 32 [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were (360), 1519, and 1159 respectively, with changes of 82, (53), and 29. The oil - meal ratio was 2.62, with a change of 0.0001 [4]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of (470), and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1080, with a negative profit of (1189) [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 16th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 65.0, 38.4, and 79.9 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous week and the same period last year [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: There are rumors that the EPA may postpone the update of RVO standards until the second half of the year [6]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: Affected by US biodiesel rumors, palm oil futures prices fell by over 2%. As of April 25, 2025, the commercial inventory decreased, and the import profit deficit widened. It is expected to maintain a tight inventory, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations [6]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Futures prices fell by over 1%. The soybean crushing volume increased last week, and the inventory decreased. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the inventory may gradually increase, and the basis may weaken. The short - term price will fluctuate, and YP09 can be considered to be expanded at low prices [6][8]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices fell by over 1%. The crushing volume of rapeseed increased last week, and the inventory decreased slightly. The import profit deficit narrowed. The short - term price will fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term oil and fat prices will remain volatile. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have positive factors, while palm oil may weaken [10]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Expand YP09 at low prices [10]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the historical trends of basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different oil and fat varieties [13][16]