1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends, basis changes, inventory levels, supply - demand situations of domestic three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil), and provides short - and medium - long - term price forecasts for palm oil [2][35][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From July 25 to August 1, 2025, the palm oil futures主力合约 (P2509) decreased by 0.29% to 8910, and the spot price decreased by 0.04% to 9012; the rapeseed oil futures主力合约 (OI2509) increased by 0.71% to 9524, and the spot price increased by 0.33% to 9622; the soybean oil futures主力合约 (Y2509) increased by 1.60% to 8274, and the spot price increased by 0.48% to 8454 [2]. 3.2 Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of July 31, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 262 yuan/ton (increased by 14 yuan/ton from the previous week), 111 yuan/ton (increased by 13 yuan/ton), and 112 yuan/ton (increased by 44 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 1, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (increased by 158 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 9.55 tons (increased by 0.30 tons from the previous week), the palm oil commercial inventory in factories was 61.55 tons (increased by 2.41 tons), the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills was 108.81 tons (decreased by 0.37 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 179.91 tons (increased by 2.34 tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [16]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - side - As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons (increased by 0.106 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 6.4559 million tons (increased by 0.0335 million tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 58% (increased by 3%). As of August 1, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 722.05 yuan/ton (decreased by 0.85 yuan/ton from the previous week) [21]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - side - As of July 25, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15,000 tons (decreased by 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of August 1, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was 295.20 yuan/ton (increased by 39.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [26]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 200 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 2500 tons, and the POGO spread was 352.24 dollars/ton (decreased by 12 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [32]. 3.6 Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The US biodiesel policy is favorable. - Overseas: According to the USDA June report, the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production of Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4%. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. - Inventory: As of July 25, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 95,500 tons, the palm oil commercial inventory in factories increased to 615,500 tons, and the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills decreased to 1.0881 million tons. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.04%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 0.48%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.33%. - Risks: The production situation of Malaysian palm oil and weather [33]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation 3.7.1 Palm Oil Single - week Summary - This week, palm oil slightly declined by 0.02%. From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year - on - year. Since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively. The EU may allow Indonesian palm oil to enter its market at zero - tariff with a quota system. The BMD crude palm oil futures ended a two - day rising trend. Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased by 9.6% compared to June. India set the reference price for crude palm oil exports in August at 910.91 dollars/ton, higher than 877.89 dollars/ton in July [35]. 3.7.2 Price Forecast - Short - term: Palm oil is hovering around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8750 - 9050. - Medium - long - term: The palm oil主力合约 has broken through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise. The expected fluctuation range is 8600 - 9400 [36]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The production situation of Malaysian palm oil and weather [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy of US biodiesel is favorable. The USDA June report shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production in Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% [30]. - In the short term, palm oil hovers around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8850 - 9200. In the medium - to - long term, the main contract of palm oil breaks through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise, with an expected fluctuation range of 8600 - 9400 [32]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2509) rose from 8964 to 9104, a weekly increase of 1.56%, and the spot price rose from 9048 to 9172, a weekly increase of 1.37%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2509) decreased from 9586 to 9492, a weekly decrease of 0.98%, and the spot price decreased from 9692 to 9590, a weekly decrease of 1.05%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2509) rose from 8160 to 8166, a weekly increase of 0.07%, and the spot price remained unchanged at 8414 [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 248 yuan/ton (an increase of 16 yuan/ton from the previous week), 98 yuan/ton (a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 68 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of July 25, 2025, the YP spread was - 794 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased to 92,500 tons (a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in factories increased to 591,400 tons (an increase of 28,400 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 1,091,800 tons (an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 1,775,700 tons (an increase of 70,400 tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, the ending inventory of Indonesian palm oil decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [15]. Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 797,900 tons (a decrease of 25,200 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major national oil mills was 642,240 tons (a decrease of 15,250 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 55% (a decrease of 4% from the previous week). As of July 24, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 721.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 25.95 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20,000 tons (an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of July 25, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was 255.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 34.76 yuan/ton from the previous week) [23]. Demand Side - On July 24, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 866 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 35,000 tons, and the POGO spread was 364.24 US dollars/ton (an increase of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [29]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, the supply - demand data of Indonesia is favorable, but high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increases and exports decrease, and the expectation of inventory accumulation strengthens, with palm oil fluctuating at a high level. The consumption of Indonesian biodiesel this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters, accounting for 47.5% of the 2025 quota. From July 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.19% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 3.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in July [31].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 银河期货油脂日报 2025/4/28 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 各品种地区现货价 品种 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | 豆油 | 7814 | (120) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8244 | | | | 8214 | 8164 | | 400 | 0 430 | -20 | 350 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8174 | (202) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8804 | | | | 8764 | 9224 | | 630 | 0 590 | -20 | 1050 ...