行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 9 月 23 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 22, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: For September 22, 2025, the main domestic soybean meal futures contracts showed varying trends. The closing prices of contracts 2601, 2509, and 2511 were 3014, 2899, and 2985 respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.43%, 0.35%, and 0.57%. The trading volumes were 895,606, 5,531, and 63,022 respectively, and the open interest changes were -50,756, 1,848, and -3,744 respectively [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The weather for the new - season US soybeans continued to deteriorate, with the latest good - to - excellent rate dropping to 63%, lower than the same period last year, and the drought - affected area rising from 22% a week ago to 33%. The current weather pattern is similar to last year, and there may be adjustments to the yield per unit in the October report [6]. - **Market Focus**: The market focused on the Sino - US economic and trade relations negotiation. From the 14th - 17th, Sino - US representatives held talks in Spain, reaching a general framework agreement on the TikTok incident. However, no further news was reported later in the week. In Brazil, there was sporadic rainfall this week, and the sowing time of new - season soybeans may still be delayed [6]. Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the CBOT price lacks drivers and maintains a narrow - range fluctuation. Externally, attention should be paid to weather and economic and trade negotiations. Domestic soybean meal has been significantly weaker than the external market this week. Due to the slightly bearish USDA report in September and the relatively smooth Sino - US negotiations, the market's long - position risk - aversion sentiment is strong. It is recommended that investors reduce their positions to avoid risks before the National Day. Under the assumption of unchanged tariffs, the long - position window may be in the fourth quarter [6]. Group 3: Industry News - USDA: In September, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season was 4.301 billion bushels, the expected ending stocks were 300 million bushels, and the expected yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, all slightly higher than market expectations [7]. - USDA Crop Growth Report: As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, and the defoliation rate was 41% [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - There are multiple data charts including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][13]