1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polyester staple fiber, urea, container shipping to Europe [1] - Bearish: Silver, lithium carbonate, soybean meal, styrene [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock index, treasury bond, gold, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon iron, glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, corn, pulp, log, live pig, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, LLDPE [1] 2. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade high - level dialogues, tariff policies, domestic stable - growth policies, and resource - country policies. Uncertainties in these factors lead to complex trends in various varieties [1]. - Different varieties show different trends due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and seasonal characteristics. For example, some varieties are affected by supply disruptions and show upward trends, while others are under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stock index: It is expected to oscillate. Caution is advised when chasing long positions, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US economic and trade high - level dialogues, especially the possibility of marginal tariff adjustments [1]. - Treasury bond: It will oscillate. The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold: It will have a short - term high - level range oscillation, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - Silver: It will oscillate. High tariff uncertainties and the commodity attribute may limit the upside space of silver prices [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: It will oscillate. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the copper price has rebounded significantly, and the price may oscillate. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of Shanghai copper [1]. - Aluminum: It will oscillate. Global trade frictions and the arrival of the domestic wet season may slow down the domestic de - stocking speed [1]. - Alumina: The supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the short - term price may further rebound [1]. - Zinc: It will oscillate. The low inventory in the near - term supports the zinc price, but the fundamental upside pressure is large. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [1]. - Nickel: It will be short - term oscillating and bullish. The implementation of Indonesia's resource tax policy and the news of Philippine nickel mines affect the price. Short - term interval operations are recommended, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [1]. - Stainless steel: It will oscillate. The short - term futures price will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see, mainly in the interval. The industrial side should pay attention to policy changes and steel mill production arrangements [1]. - Tin: It will oscillate. Sino - US tariff negotiations are deadlocked, and the macro uncertainty is large. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Wa State [1]. - Industrial silicon: It will oscillate. Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered the low - valuation range, and the demand and inventory pressure have not been alleviated [1]. - Polysilicon: It will oscillate. The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, resulting in a low willingness to register warehouse receipts [1]. - Lithium carbonate: It is bearish. Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, and the downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices [1]. Black metals - Rebar: It will oscillate. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain, the short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price may decline [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: It will oscillate. Similar to rebar, trade disputes affect the export chain, and the short - term risk appetite is poor [1]. - Iron ore: It will oscillate. Tariff policies affect market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1]. - Manganese silicon: It will oscillate. The inventory is high, but the cost provides support [1]. - Silicon iron: It will oscillate. The cost is loosening, but the production area has reduced production, and the social inventory is at a medium level [1]. - Glass: It will oscillate. The demand is released in pulses, attention should be paid to the demand performance, the near - term position is gradually decreasing, and the long - short game is weakening [1]. - Soda ash: It will oscillate. Alkali plants are resuming production, and demand is increasing, but the medium - term supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking coal: It will oscillate. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively excessive, and it is short - allocated in the sector. Industrial customers are recommended to actively seize the positive arbitrage and short - hedging opportunities after the futures price rebounds to a premium [1]. - Coke: It will oscillate, similar to coking coal [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: It will oscillate. The rebound of crude oil prices may prevent the smooth decline of oils and fats. The fundamental is bearish. Wait for short - selling opportunities on rallies for single - side trading, and it is recommended to go long on the YP spread for arbitrage [1]. - Soybean oil: It will oscillate. There is currently no weather theme for US soybeans, and the large arrival of soybeans and the intention of Sino - US peace talks may be bearish risks [1]. - Rapeseed oil: It will oscillate. The northern产区 of European rapeseed is still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit. There may be an anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed soon, which is expected to bring large fluctuations [1]. - Cotton: It will oscillate. If crude oil continues to decline, the cotton textile demand may be weak, and the substitution between chemical fiber and cotton will also put pressure on cotton prices. The decline of overseas agricultural product prices and the repair of the cotton - grain ratio are negative for the long - term US cotton price [1]. - Sugar: It will oscillate. Overseas supply shortages worry the market, and the domestic production increase and high industrial inventory suppress the domestic price [1]. - Corn: It will oscillate. In the short term, it is affected by the new wheat listing and the expected release of policy grains. In the medium term, the supply - demand is tightening, and it is recommended to wait for the callback to go long [1]. - Soybean meal: It is bearish. There is no obvious short - term bullish driver, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly during the spot price decline and basis repair [1]. - Pulp: It will oscillate. The decline of the overseas pulp quotation weakens the cost support, and the domestic demand enters the off - season. The inventory has slightly decreased, and it is recommended to hold the position and wait and see [1]. - Log: It will oscillate. The log arrival volume remains high, the inventory is high, the terminal product price is falling, and there is no short - term bullish factor. The current valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Live pig: It will oscillate. With the continuous recovery of the pig inventory and the increase in the slaughter weight, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and the downstream has no bright spots [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: It will oscillate. It is affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, OPEC +'s accelerated production increase, and weak global demand [1]. - Fuel oil: It will oscillate, with the same influencing factors as crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: It will oscillate. The cost drags down, the inventory is low but continuously accumulating, and the downstream demand is slowly recovering [1]. - Natural rubber: It will oscillate. The production release expectation is strong, the domestic inventory is continuously accumulating, and the storage policy has an impact [1]. - BR rubber: It will be bearish. The cost pressure and the loose fundamental lead to the continuous expansion of the price difference between high - and low - end BR rubber [1]. - PTA: It will oscillate. The intensive maintenance of upstream PX devices, the repair of PTA profits, and the high load of polyester support the PTA demand [1]. - Ethylene glycol: It will oscillate. The ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, and large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads [1]. - Polyester staple fiber: It is bullish. The tight PTA situation strengthens the cost support of polyester staple fiber, and it performs strongly under the high basis [1]. - Styrene: It is bearish. The weak demand for pure benzene causes the price to decline, and the downstream demand of pure benzene continues to weaken [1]. - Urea: It is bullish. The market expectation is positive, and the short - term urea market is likely to rise firmly [1]. - Methanol: It will oscillate. In the short term, the price will oscillate within a range, and in the medium - to - long - term, the spot market may change from strong to weakly oscillating [1]. - PE: It will oscillate weakly. The macro risk is large, the crude oil oscillates weakly, the orders are insufficient, and the market sentiment is weak [1]. - PP: It will oscillate weakly. Some previously maintained devices have resumed operation, the demand is stable, and the trade war intensifies, weakening the market sentiment [1]. - PVC: It will oscillate. The fundamental is weak, and the macro risk intensifies, making it difficult to form an upward trend [1]. - LLDPE: It will oscillate. The demand during the May Day holiday is average, the spot price increase driver is insufficient, and the futures price oscillates weakly [1]. Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: It is bullish. The futures price begins to show a safety margin, and it is recommended to lightly go long on the peak - season contract and continuously pay attention to the 6 - 8 spread arbitrage [1].