1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Pulp [1] - **Neutral**: Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Diesel, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Methanol, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping on the Europe route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The external shocks on the stock index remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity due to changes in the US attitude and the possible opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the long - term, the stock index is still optimistic. [1] - Treasury bonds are affected by multiple factors and will oscillate. [1] - Metal prices are affected by the complex situation in the Middle East, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper and aluminum prices oscillate, while zinc is bearish, and nickel and stainless steel are high - level oscillating. [1] - The prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium oscillate due to the shift of market trading narrative and the uncertain situation in the Middle East. [1] - The prices of industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost, and geopolitical factors. [1] - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, consumption, and policies. For example, cotton prices are expected to rise in the long - term, while sugar prices have limited fluctuations. [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are significantly affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with some products facing supply shortages and price fluctuations. [1] - The container shipping on the Europe route is affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock index**: External shocks remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity. In the long - term, it is still optimistic. [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintains an oscillating trend due to the complex situation in the Middle East. [1] - **Aluminum**: Price fluctuations intensify, and there are low - buying opportunities. [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the upward space is limited due to the oversupply pattern. [1] - **Zinc**: Bearish due to weak fundamentals, and the reversal depends on European natural gas prices. [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level, affected by policies and macro - emotions. Short - term low - buying is recommended. [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillates, and short - term low - buying opportunities should be focused on. [1] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to potential production impacts. [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Prices may oscillate in the short - term due to the upgrading of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Prices are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear. [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and the inventory is being reduced. [1] - **Polycrystalline silicon**: It is recommended to wait and see. [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Affected by factors such as demand and raw material disturbances. [1] Industrial products - **Rebar**: The price is mainly supported by cost, and it is treated as an oscillating market. [1] - **Hot rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong, and it is in the de - stocking cycle. It is recommended to operate with an oscillating idea and consider positive arbitrage. [1] - **Iron ore**: The price oscillates at a high level, and it is recommended to operate within a range. [1] - **Manganese silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Bullish due to short - term supply - demand growth and cost support. [1] - **Glass and Soda ash**: Oscillate, and soda ash follows the trend of glass. [1] - **Coking coal**: There is a risk of a sharp rise and fall, and attention should be paid to the development of the war. [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The far - month prices are expected to rise due to high oil prices and increased quotas. [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the inventory is tightening, and domestic prices are expected to rise in the long - term. [1] - **Sugar**: The supply is abundant, and the price has limited fluctuations. [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term, but the decline range is limited. [1] - **Soybeans**: It is recommended to wait for the callback to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts. [1] - **Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. [1] - **Logs**: Bullish due to the rise in the external market price. [1] Energy and chemical products - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: Prices are affected by the Middle East situation, with supply concerns and negotiation information disturbances. [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports is relatively weak, and it is affected by the price of crude oil. [1] - **BR rubber**: The price has an upward space, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. [1] - **PTA**: The Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The price rises due to raw material shortages. [1] - **Short fiber**: The price fluctuates with the cost. [1] - **Methanol**: The export is affected, but the domestic supply is abundant. [1] - **PP, PVC, Caustic soda**: Affected by the geopolitical situation and supply - demand fundamentals. [1] - **LPG**: The price is affected by multiple factors, with internal and external market differentiation. [1] Others - **Container shipping on the Europe route**: Affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies, with a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season. [1]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: March 30, 2026 - **Research Institute**: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekend market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts and policy games. Energy and precious metals fluctuated violently. The escalation of the Middle East situation pushed up the risk premium of crude oil, and the price of domestic refined gold jewelry approached 1,400 yuan/gram. Macro - policies showed differentiation: overseas, the Fed's dot - plot implied only one interest - rate cut in 2026, which suppressed risk assets; domestically, the central bank maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing the resilience of the industrial fundamentals [1]. - In 2026 Q1, the global capital market was characterized by global differentiation, technology re - evaluation, and policy disturbances. In Q2, as the earnings reports are released, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance realization" [4][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session rose 2.67%. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows no sign of stopping. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal and put forward strict conditions. The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in shock consolidation. The current adjustment is driven by the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day, the stock index opened low and closed high. In Q2, the market logic will change, and high - valuation growth stocks face pressure, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties [4][11]. Daily News Focus - **International News**: US President Trump claimed to control the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice - President Vance said the US would withdraw from Iran after completing its goals and that the rise in oil prices was a short - term reaction [6]. - **Domestic News**: On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Boao Forum for Asia, Hainan Free Trade Port made its first global appearance after the whole - island customs closure [7]. - **Industry News**: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [8][9]. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.79%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.70%, the US dollar index rose 0.26%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 8.14%, and precious metals such as London gold and silver also rose [10]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: The stock index has the same situation as mentioned before. Treasury bonds have mixed performance. The central bank's operations keep the capital market relatively stable, but long - term treasury bond futures prices may face pressure due to factors such as the Middle East situation and inflation expectations [11][12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical**: Methanol night - session rose 4.29%, with an increase in the operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and a decrease in coastal inventories. Rubber is in the low - production season, with new supply pressure expected, but the price is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. Polyolefins rebounded, and attention should be paid to the conflict situation and device operation. Glass and soda ash futures are weak, with high inventories and supply - demand imbalances [15][16][17][19]. - **Metals**: Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, and the US dollar. Aluminum prices may rise due to supply risks caused by the Middle East conflict [21][22][23]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market was weak on Friday night, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the recovery of rigid demand and the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the coal market [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by the Brazilian soybean harvest and the expected increase in US soybean exports. Oils are expected to be in high - level shock due to bio - fuel policies and oil price risks. The pig price is expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand. Sugar is affected by the Middle East situation and ethanol prices. Cotton is expected to be in shock in the short - term and supply may be tight in the long - term [26][27][28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European route fell on Friday. The price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term [32].

Core Viewpoint - The macro market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and policy dynamics, with energy and precious metals experiencing significant volatility due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and differing monetary policies between the U.S. and China [1]. Group 1: Energy Market - The WTI crude oil price surged past $100 due to increased risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia [1]. - The domestic energy and chemical sectors showed strength as a result of rising oil prices, while the gold price approached 1400 yuan per gram due to safe-haven demand and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1]. - Indonesia's approval of export tariffs on coal and nickel, along with Russia's planned ban on gasoline exports starting in April, has added uncertainty to the prices of related commodities [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, primarily driven by a dual pressure from revised interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks, with a decrease in rate cut expectations leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and real interest rates [3]. - Long-term trends indicate that geopolitical risks are likely to elevate the price center for precious metals, with ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued push for de-dollarization, leading to increased gold reserves by global central banks [3]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices fell, with the market showing a shift from "trading on expectations" to "looking for actual results" as the earnings season approaches [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Federal Reserve signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [4]. - High-valuation growth stocks, particularly in technology, face ongoing pressure from rising risk-free rates, while low-valuation, high-dividend assets are expected to exhibit stronger defensive characteristics amid external uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Industrial Profit Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January and February, reflecting a recovery in industrial performance [9]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the non-ferrous metals and chemical industries, with specific sectors like aluminum processing and inorganic salt manufacturing seeing profit increases of 264.0% and 518.5%, respectively [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on March 27, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like pure benzene and lithium carbonate had significant increases, while others such as container shipping on the European route and caustic soda declined. Futures contracts of stock indexes and treasury bonds also had different trends. The market was affected by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and seasonal factors [6][7]. - The prices of most commodities were expected to be volatile due to the tense situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which had a great impact on the supply of energy - related commodities. Some commodities were expected to have a strong - side oscillation, but risks needed to be controlled [12][14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of March 27, pure benzene and lithium carbonate rose by over 6%, styrene (EB) and ethylene glycol (EG) rose by over 5%, and methanol rose by over 4%. Container shipping on the European route fell by over 3%, and caustic soda and silver futures fell by over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also had different trends. In terms of capital flow, some contracts had capital inflows while others had outflows [6][7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper (Shanghai Copper)**: In February 2026, China's copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The copper concentrate inventory was relatively low. The production of electrolytic copper increased. The demand from the copper product sector started to pick up, but the terminal data was not optimistic. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate due to the situation in the Middle East [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose by over 6% on March 27. The production in March decreased month - on - month. The import volume in February increased year - on - year. The downstream lithium battery production was in high - growth, but the retail of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year. The market was affected by the situation in Zimbabwe and the overall upward trend of non - ferrous metals, but there were potential supply risks [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The U.S. crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The Strait of Hormuz was almost closed, which led to production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries. Although some measures were taken to relieve the supply pressure, the situation was still tense. The possibility of a U.S. - Iran negotiation was low, and the oil price was at a high - risk of fluctuation [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the planned production in April was significantly lower. The downstream demand started to recover after the Spring Festival. The inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply was affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [15]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream PP开工率 increased slightly, but the demand recovery was slow. The enterprise开工率 was at a low level. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply was expected to decrease, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 decreased, and the downstream开工率 increased but did not return to the pre - holiday level. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply was expected to decrease, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [18][20]. - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 also increased but was still lower than the same period last year. The export price increased, but the inventory was still high. The industry had an anti - involution expectation, and the supply was expected to decrease if the Strait of Hormuz did not resume navigation [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price decreased on March 27. The mine production resumed smoothly, and the inventory was transferred from mines to downstream. The price decline was a correction after the previous over - rise, and the downward space was expected to be limited [22][23]. - **Urea**: The urea price rose on March 27. The domestic supply was guaranteed by high production and state - reserve goods. The downstream demand was mainly from compound fertilizer factories and other industries. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to oscillate at a narrow high level [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran situation, on global markets, highlighting the interplay between high oil prices, inflation expectations, and central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates [1][5][17]. Group 1: Economic and Market Overview - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation, marking the 13th consecutive month of increased liquidity support to stabilize the market [1]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range, with expectations of only one rate cut this year, indicating a prolonged high-rate environment [1]. - Oil prices remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions, with Goldman Sachs and others raising short-term oil price forecasts due to supply risks [1]. - Gold prices are driven by both safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, closing above $4,500 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights Shipping - The EC index fell by 6.04%, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and potential negotiations between the U.S. and Iran [2]. - Container shipping rates have decreased, with significant price adjustments noted for large containers, indicating pressure on shipping rates due to reduced export demand [2][33]. Copper - Copper prices rose by 0.69%, supported by tight supply conditions, although smelting profits are at breakeven levels [24]. - The overall copper production remains high despite a slight month-on-month decline, with attention needed on downstream demand and smelting output [24]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed a rebound, with significant trading volumes, although the market remains cautious due to ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [3][27]. - The financing balance decreased, indicating a more cautious approach from investors during the earnings disclosure period [3][27]. Group 3: Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, with recent geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite and liquidity conditions [23]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [23]. Energy - Oil prices are under pressure from geopolitical developments, with the U.S. delaying military actions against Iran, which has implications for energy prices [18]. - The International Energy Agency noted that the current Middle East crisis could have a more severe impact on energy prices than past oil crises [18]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian soybean harvest rates are lagging behind historical averages, but overall production is expected to be high, impacting global soybean prices [28]. - The palm oil market is influenced by production increases in Southeast Asia, although potential export restrictions from Indonesia could support prices [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had mixed performance on March 25, 2026, with some commodities rising and others falling. The market was significantly affected by the Middle - East situation, and the prices of energy - related commodities were highly volatile [6][7]. - For most commodities, the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation led to large price fluctuations, and it was recommended to be cautious when participating in the market, with some suggesting temporary exit and waiting for more stable market conditions [13][16][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Commodity Performance - **Falling Commodities**: Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) dropped by over 8%, fuel oil and container shipping on the European line dropped by over 6%, and ethylene glycol, PVC, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, and plastic dropped by over 4% [6]. - **Rising Commodities**: Shanghai silver rose by over 7%, platinum and palladium rose by over 5%, and lithium carbonate and butadiene rubber rose by over 4%. Stock index futures and some treasury bond futures also had varying degrees of increase [6][7]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:25 on March 25, 2026, funds flowed into Shanghai gold 2606 (5.782 billion yuan), Shanghai silver 2606 (1.804 billion yuan), and butadiene rubber 2605 (1.097 billion yuan). Funds flowed out of CSI 1000 2606 (4.134 billion yuan), crude oil 2605 (783 million yuan), and iron ore 2605 (732 million yuan) [7]. 3.2. Market Analysis - **Copper**: In February 2026, China's copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The shortage of copper resources supported the price. The substitution of recycled copper decreased, and the production of electrolytic copper increased. The demand in the copper product sector started to pick up, but the terminal data was not optimistic. The copper price rebounded due to the news of the possible cease - fire in the Middle - East, and caution was needed when chasing the rise [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. In February 2026, China's lithium carbonate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The export of lithium ore in Zimbabwe was affected, and the subsequent resumption of production in domestic lithium mines was a potential negative factor. The inventory decreased slightly, and the overall demand growth showed a marginal weakening trend [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory increased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory decreased significantly. The Middle - East situation was the focus, and the suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz led to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Although some measures were taken to ease the supply pressure, the situation was still uncertain, and the oil price was highly volatile [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. The market was worried about the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries due to the Middle - East situation. The supply - demand situation improved, but it was recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the development of the Middle - East situation [14]. - **PP**: The downstream demand for PP recovered slowly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern improved, but the downstream was resistant to high prices. It was recommended to pay attention to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle - East situation [16]. - **Plastic**: The plastic production rate decreased, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern improved, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing. It was recommended to pay attention to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle - East situation [17][18]. - **PVC**: The PVC production rate decreased, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. The export price increased, and the social inventory decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival. The PVC industry had the expectation of anti - involution, and the supply was expected to decrease if the Strait of Hormuz did not resume navigation. It was recommended to stay on the sidelines [19][21]. - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coal production resumed, and the downstream started to build up inventory. The price of coking coal was affected by the Middle - East situation, and the market volatility was high. The fundamental driving force was not strong, and caution was needed in operation [22]. - **Urea**: The market trading was average, and the factory price was stable. The high production and national reserve ensured the supply, and the downstream demand was weakening but still had some procurement. The inventory continued to decrease, and the price was in high - level shock [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - External shocks still exist, and stock index is expected to fluctuate. Trump's delay of the ultimatum to Iran provides a short - term respite for the capital market, increasing the probability of a short - term rebound in the stock index [1]. - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior in the trading market lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - The complex Middle East situation makes it difficult for market risk appetite to rise rapidly, and copper and aluminum prices face downward pressure. Alumina prices are supported but the upside is limited due to oversupply [1]. - Zinc and tin prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to supply tightness and macro - emotional volatility. Stainless steel futures are expected to run strongly with short - term operations recommended [1]. - Precious metal prices stop falling and fluctuate. In the short term, they may fluctuate due to the unresolved Middle East situation [1]. - Industrial silicon has supply resumption, weak demand, and inventory reduction; polysilicon has strong energy - storage demand, weak power demand, and battery rush for exports [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils are in the de - stocking cycle. Their prices are mainly affected by cost support and are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Iron ore, ferrosilicon, and other products have weak short - term supply and demand, but are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Glass and soda ash prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Coking coal and coke may have a short - term rally, but investors need to pay attention to the development of the war and control risks [1]. - Oils may experience a short - term correction after a sharp rise, but the long - term view is bullish [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term due to reduced planting expectations and demand recovery; sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Grains such as corn and soybeans are expected to have short - term fluctuations, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long on soybeans [1]. - Pulp futures are expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Hog prices are expected to fluctuate as production capacity needs further release [1]. - Energy products such as fuel oil, asphalt, and rubber are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [1]. - Chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene face supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts [1]. - Fertilizers such as urea and methanol are affected by geopolitical factors and domestic supply - demand situations [1]. - Plastics such as PE, PVC, and LPG are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. - The shipping market is affected by war emotions and has a strong willingness to stop falling and raise prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: External shocks still exist, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate. Trump's delay of the ultimatum to Iran provides a short - term respite, increasing the probability of a short - term rebound [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Multiple factors lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The complex Middle East situation makes it difficult for market risk appetite to rise rapidly, and copper prices have a risk of decline [1]. - Aluminum: The Middle East situation has not cooled down, and aluminum prices are under short - term pressure [1]. - Alumina: Rising energy prices, freight rates, and potential export quotas in Guinea support prices, but the oversupply pattern limits the upside [1]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to supply tightness and macro - emotional volatility. Short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel futures are expected to run strongly with short - term operations recommended [1]. - Tin: Tin prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: Precious metal prices stop falling and fluctuate. In the short term, they may fluctuate due to the unresolved Middle East situation [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Prices may stop falling and stabilize in the short term, but they may still fluctuate due to the Middle East situation [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and inventory is reduced [1]. - Polysilicon: Energy - storage demand is strong, power demand is weak, and there is a battery rush for exports [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: In the de - stocking cycle, demand is average, and prices are mainly supported by cost and valuation [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: In the de - stocking cycle, inventory is high, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Positive arbitrage positions can be gradually entered [1]. - Iron Ore: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Glass: Prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass prices, affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Coking Coal: May have a short - term rally, but investors need to pay attention to the development of the war and control risks [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products - Oils: May experience a short - term correction after a sharp rise, but the long - term view is bullish [1]. - Cotton: International cotton inventory is expected to tighten, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term [1]. - Sugar: Global sugar supply is abundant, and domestic sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Grains: Corn prices may have a short - term correction, and soybean investors can wait for opportunities to go long [1]. - Pulp: Futures are expected to be weak in the short term [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. - Fuel Oil: Affected by the Middle East situation, market sentiment is positive, and risk appetite is rising [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by the cost of crude oil, the impact is relatively weak in the energy sector [1]. - Rubber: Supported by cost, commodity market sentiment is positive, and the futures - spot price difference is large [1]. - BR Rubber: Prices rise due to supply shortages, and the downstream negative feedback is gradually realized [1]. - PTA: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the polyester industry chain may face production decline [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Affected by the shortage of raw materials, prices rise [1]. - Short - Fibre: Prices follow cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: Supply is tight, and non - integrated producers' profits are inverted [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, and prices are supported by cost [1]. - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, domestic supply is abundant [1]. - PE: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fundamentals are weak [1]. - PVC: Future expectations are optimistic due to capacity reduction [1]. - LPG: The price is affected by geopolitical factors, and there is a differentiation between the domestic and international markets [1]. Shipping - Container Shipping on European Routes: Affected by war emotions, there is a strong willingness to stop falling and raise prices [1].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is influenced by expectations of a "ceasefire" between the US and Iran, along with central bank liquidity measures, leading to fluctuations in oil and gold prices [1][10] - The US has proposed a 15-point negotiation plan to Iran, which includes dismantling nuclear capabilities and halting missile programs, in exchange for lifting sanctions [4][10] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that the current Middle East crisis is more severe than the oil crises of the 1970s, impacting energy prices significantly [1][10] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Oil prices have shown volatility, with Brent crude falling below $100 per barrel, while gold prices rebounded after a nine-day decline, reaching $4475 [1][10] - Copper prices increased by 0.68% due to tight supply conditions, although the overall demand remains weak in sectors like automotive and real estate [2][16] - The aluminum market is facing supply risks due to geopolitical tensions, with significant production cuts announced by major aluminum producers [18] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - US stock indices experienced slight declines, with market sentiment affected by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and rising inflation expectations due to high oil prices [2][7] - The financing balance in China decreased by 115.10 billion yuan, indicating cautious market sentiment during the earnings disclosure period [2][7] - The central bank in China is expected to maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including MLF operations, to support the economy [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The Middle East situation is tense, with Israel and Iran making frequent statements, and the situation in the Middle East may escalate again, which has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets [3] - The A - share market is under pressure due to the decline in risk preference, and there is a significant correction [3] - The price trends of various commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, and the market is volatile [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The stock index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are under pressure due to the decline in risk preference in the A - share market. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market is greatly affected by the news of the US - Iran conflict. The decline trend of precious metals is hard to end in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. If the US - Iran war eases, the silver price is expected to stop falling and rebound, otherwise, it may fall back. Platinum and palladium are recommended to maintain a bearish view [3] Steel and Iron Ore - The steel price center moves up, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure. The iron ore is in high - level shock. For coal and coke, it is recommended to go long at low positions [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The copper price rebounds due to the possible easing of the US - Iran situation. The aluminum price has limited downward space. For other non - ferrous metals, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective supply - demand and price trends [3] New Energy - The polysilicon market is oversupplied, and the futures are approaching the daily limit down. The lithium carbonate market fluctuates greatly, and short - term and medium - term operation suggestions are given [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price has a significant correction due to the easing signal. Most energy and chemical products are affected by the geopolitical situation and the oil price adjustment. Different operation suggestions are given for different products [3] Agricultural Products - The prices of agricultural products are also affected by geopolitical factors. Different agricultural products have different price trends and operation suggestions, such as the hog market is under pressure, and the prices of some grains and oils are in shock [3]