随着油价反弹回升，国内多数化工品12日普涨，其中苯乙烯收盘涨超3%，聚丙烯、塑料、PX等也均收 涨超1%。 国内商品期货市场1月12日涨多跌少，其中沪银主力合约涨超14%；集运欧线主力合约涨超11%；碳酸 锂、沪锡主力合约均封板涨停，涨幅分别为9.00%、8.00%；沪镍主力合约涨超5%；铂、焦煤主力合约 涨超4%；钯、沪铜、国际铜、苯乙烯主力合约涨超3%；SC原油、沪金、沪铝、铝合金、纯苯主力合约 涨超2%。下跌品种中，多晶硅主力合约跌超2%；花生、燃料油合约跌超1%。 截至12日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1661.85点，较前一交易日上涨55.54点，涨幅3.46%； 中证商品期货指数收报2293.15点，较前一交易日上涨76.64点，涨幅3.46%。 金属热度不减沪银飙升超14% 原油反弹化工整体回升 地缘紧张局势和美联储宽松预期升温令金属板块1月12日再度集体活跃。截至收盘时，沪银以14.42%的 涨幅强势领涨商品市场。碳酸锂、锡双双封板涨停，铜钯、铂、镍等涨幅也分别在3%、4%、5%以上。 沪金收涨2.57%，盘中将历史新高刷新至1030元／克上方。 目前驱动金属板块强势的基本逻辑并未发生明 ...

转自：新华财经 金属热度不减沪银飙升超14% 原油反弹化工整体回升 地缘紧张局势和美联储宽松预期升温令金属板块1月12日再度集体活跃。截至收盘时，沪银以14.42%的涨幅强势领涨商品市场。碳酸锂、锡双双封板涨停， 铜钯、铂、镍等涨幅也分别在3%、4%、5%以上。沪金收涨2.57%，盘中将历史新高刷新至1030元／克上方。 目前驱动金属板块强势的基本逻辑并未发生明显变化。AI和新能源高速发展带来的强劲需求增量，多因素导致的供应收紧，加上美联储宽松预期，以及地 缘和贸易局势扰动带来对资源性商品流通的干扰，都推动了资金对金属的持续追捧。与此同时，美联邦检察官已对美联储主席鲍威尔展开调查的消息，进一 步强化了对美联储独立性的担忧，进而给贵金属带来额外的上涨动力。这其中，兼具工业金属和贵金属双重属性，且又经历了连续五年短缺的白银，更成为 资金追逐的对象。即便多家交易所宣布提高白银期货保证金，也未能给白银市场带来真正意义上的降温。在分析机构看来，由于白银强势的逻辑未改，虽然 基金调权、交易所提保等可能带来银价的短期波动，但预计难以改变银价上行的走势。 同样受到地缘局势提振的还有能源化工板块。受美国可能干预伊朗的担忧提振， ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月12日，国内商品期货收盘大面积上涨，沪银涨超14%，集运欧线涨超11%，碳酸锂涨 停，涨幅9%，沪锡涨停，涨幅8%，沪镍涨超5%，铂、焦煤涨超4%，钯、沪铜、国际铜、苯乙烯涨超 3%，原油、沪金、沪铝涨超2%。跌幅方面，多晶硅跌超2%，花生、燃料油跌超1%。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月12日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，沪银涨超12%，集运欧线涨超11%，碳酸 锂、沪锡均封涨停板，铂涨超5%，沪镍、钯涨超4%；跌幅方面，花生、燃料油、双胶纸跌超1%。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 12 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：资本市场改革新部署 证监会副主席陈华平 1 月 11 日在第三十届中国资本市场论坛上表示，将持续完 善长钱长投的制度环境，合力推动各类中长期资金进一步提高入市规模比例；不 断增强对科技创新企业服务的精准性、有效性，纵深推进科创板创业板改革，深 化再融资改革；进一步提升监管执法有效性，持续健全投资者教育服务和保护体 系，坚持依法从严监管，突出打大、打恶、打重点，从严惩治各类恶性违法行为。 美国财政部长贝森特透露，美国最早或于本周解除针对委内瑞拉的额外制裁，以 推动石油出口。贝森特将于本周会晤国际货币基金组织和世界银行负责人，商议 两大机构与委内瑞拉重新建立合作关系的相关事宜。 重点品种：贵金属、股指、铜 贵金属：贵金属再度反弹。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压 力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的 流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、央行 购金等逻辑支撑依然稳固，黄金长期上行趋势有望延续。白银和铂金兼具金融和 工业属性，除受到宏观因素驱动外，还受到供需缺口的额外支 ...

首席点评： 资本市场改革新部署 证监会副主席陈华平 1 月 11 日在第三十届中国资本市场论坛上表示，将持续完善长钱长投的制度环境，合力推动各类中长 期资金进一步提高入市规模比例；不断增强对科技创新企业服务的精准性、有效性，纵深推进科创板创业板改革，深化再 融资改革；进一步提升监管执法有效性，持续健全投资者教育服务和保护体系，坚持依法从严监管，突出打大、打恶、打 重点，从严惩治各类恶性违法行为。美国财政部长贝森特透露，美国最早或于本周解除针对委内瑞拉的额外制裁，以推动 石油出口。贝森特将于本周会晤国际货币基金组织和世界银行负责人，商议两大机构与委内瑞拉重新建立合作关系的相关 事宜。 重点品种： 贵金属、股指、铜 贵金属 ：贵金属再度反弹。从宏观面来看，近期公布的经济数据显示美国通胀压力缓解，就业仍然疲软，美联储降息预期 强化，全球同步处于降息周期，宽松的流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。对于黄金而言，美元信用动摇、央行购 金等逻辑支撑依然稳固，黄金长期上行趋势有望延续。白银和铂金兼具金融和工业属性，除受到宏观因素驱动外，还受到 供需缺口的额外支撑。白银供给持续紧张，矿产供应增量受限，而光伏等工业需求保持稳 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

转自：新华财经 双焦近期反弹态势明显，尽管8日日盘时段，焦煤主力合约较夜盘高点明显回落，但终盘仍以超4%的涨幅领涨商品市场。焦煤基本面短期内变化有限，但供 应端相对偏紧的预期仍在，且黑色系整体估值偏低，容易受到利多因素提振。不过，今日市场情绪降温，同时最新的数据显示，钢材再度累库，终端需求疲 弱带来的负反馈压力持续，盘面也承压调整。展望后市，银河期货认为，当前焦煤供需较为平衡，无明显矛盾，行情主要驱动来自宏观情绪及资金，市场消 息及传闻则起到了催化剂作用，波动较为剧烈。但行情的持续仍需观察基本面改善情况，需谨慎看待。中期看，煤矿供应端的政策对于煤炭产量有长效的约 束，煤价有政策托底，但同时也要考虑上方保供、能源安全政策的压制。焦煤价格预计呈现"下有底，上有顶"的格局。 玻璃主力合约今日延续强势运行，收涨2.65%。一方面是受到了成本端煤炭价格走高的支撑；另一方面，现货市场情绪略有好转，带动库存下降，据隆众资 讯，截至1月8日，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存环比下降2.37%。国投期货预计，由于近期冷修4条线，目前三种燃料产线均亏损，未来可能会继续压缩产 能。但需求端，加工订单延续低迷态势，环比走弱，同比较低，需求 ...

每经AI快讯，1月8日，国内期货主力合约多数下跌，焦煤涨超5%，碳酸锂、焦炭、BR橡胶涨超 2%，玻璃涨超1%。跌幅方面，集运欧线跌超8%，多晶硅跌超7%，沪银跌超3%，硅铁、国际铜、沪 镍、工业硅、SC原油、铂、沪铜、甲醇跌超2%。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

人民财讯1月8日电，国内期货收盘，多晶硅跌停，集运欧线跌近9%，铂、沪镍跌超6%，沪银跌超5%， 工业硅跌超4%，钯、硅铁跌超3%。焦煤涨超4%，玻璃、焦炭、碳酸锂涨超2%。 ...