上周在新加坡举行的"全球华人财富管理与传承"峰会上，吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）在演讲中抛出数颗重 磅炸弹——"自己已清空了所有美国股票"、"下一场美国经济危机将是自己有生以来最严重的一次"。 要知道，罗杰斯可是华尔街的传奇投资家，1973-1980年间由他主导的量子基金累计收益率高达4200%， 碾压同期标普500指数47%的涨幅。 投资大佬语惊四座的预判，无疑会牵动市场的神经。一个最现实的问题是，如果美股出现下跌，对A股会 产生什么样的影响？ 先来看美股大跌的影响力。参考信达证券的统计，2000年以来，历次美股发生较大调整（20%级别）时， A股均会受影响，只是幅度差异很大。比如，2008年美国次贷危机导致全球经济增速放缓，但由于彼时的 A股估值较高，反而跌幅超过了美股；但到了2020年Q1疫情期间，由于当时的A股估值较低，所以跌幅远 小于美股。此外，今年2-4月期间，由于美国关税政策的影响，全球股市均有调整，但由于A股处在牛市 初期，估值处于合理区间，上证综指调整幅度远小于美股。 | 开始时间 | 结束时间 | 标普 500 | 上证指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that adjustments in the US stock market may influence the A-share market, particularly when A-shares are at bull market peaks [2][8] - Historical data since 2000 shows that during four significant adjustments in the US market (2000-2002, 2008, Q1 2020, 2022), A-shares transitioned from bull to bear markets, except for Q1 2020 when A-shares were less affected [3][9] - The report suggests that the current A-share market is in the early to mid-stage of a bull market, with valuations in a reasonable range, which may mitigate the impact of US market fluctuations [3][9] Group 2 - The correlation between Japanese and US stock markets has been high, but there have been two significant periods of divergence lasting about ten years, during which the US market experienced substantial declines while the Japanese market rose [3][15] - The report posits that due to significant valuation differences between A-shares and US stocks, there is a considerable probability that the two markets may gradually decouple [17][18] - The report highlights that since 2021, foreign ownership of A-shares has been declining, and there has been no significant return of foreign capital to A-shares since the bull market began in September 2024, suggesting limited impact from US market volatility [18][20] Group 3 - The report anticipates a potential main upward trend in the A-share market driven by policy and capital, with expectations of increased resident capital inflow as the market stabilizes [21][23] - It suggests a shift in investment strategy from a "barbell" approach to a more flexible strategy, focusing on sectors with elastic performance such as non-bank financials and AI applications [25][26] - The report recommends increasing allocations in sectors like non-bank financials, media, and metals, while also considering cyclical stocks that may show elastic performance in the coming months [26][27]