Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation in the US-China trade dispute is driven by President Trump's aggressive tweets threatening to impose up to 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, indicating a renewed phase of the trade war [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations - Trump's tweets express dissatisfaction with China's halt in purchasing US soybeans, which he labels as "economic hostile behavior," reflecting his emotional response tied to the agricultural sector [6][10]. - In 2024, China is expected to import over 22 million tons of US soybeans, accounting for more than 20% of the total US soybean exports, highlighting the significance of this trade for US agriculture [6]. - The reduction in soybean purchases by China is attributed to the politicization of trade by the US government, which has led China to seek alternative suppliers to balance trade [10]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's warnings to allies, particularly regarding military cooperation with China, signal a broader concern about China's influence in regions like South America, where trade ties are strengthening [12][14]. - The aggressive stance of the Trump administration, including military actions in South America, reflects anxiety over China's expanding influence and the potential for a shift in global power dynamics [14][15]. Group 3: Misunderstandings in Trade - There is a notable misunderstanding from Trump regarding the nature of US soybean exports to China, as these are primarily used for animal feed and industrial products rather than for direct consumption [8][10]. - The misconception that China is reselling US soy products back to the US as edible oil illustrates a lack of understanding of the agricultural trade dynamics [8].

Core Points - The US and China have agreed to significantly reduce tariffs, with the US lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% [1] - A 90-day tariff suspension has been established, signaling a potential stabilization in US-China trade relations [2][8] - The recent tariff changes are seen as a major benefit for export companies, although concerns remain about the sustainability of this easing [2] Tariff Changes - The US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will lower tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [1] - The agreement includes a 90-day suspension of tariffs, which is viewed as a positive development for exporters [2][8] Impact on Exporters - Many export companies have faced significant order cancellations and disruptions due to previous tariff increases, with some reporting a drop in order volumes by half [4] - The cancellation of the $800 tariff exemption has further complicated logistics for cross-border e-commerce, leading to a shift in strategies among exporters [6][10] - Exporters are now racing to utilize the 90-day window to ship goods to the US and stock local warehouses [10] Market Adaptation - The recent tariff crisis has prompted many Chinese exporters to diversify their markets beyond the US, with increased focus on regions like the Middle East and Europe [11][12] - The volatility in trade relations has led to a shift in business strategies, emphasizing the need for adaptability in uncertain environments [14]

Supply Side - The April USDA report did not adjust the supply from major producing countries, reducing supply pressure for U.S. soybeans [1] - Brazil and Argentina's soybean production expectations remain unchanged, with limited adjustment space for South American yields [1] - U.S. soybean planting has begun with favorable weather conditions, leading to a fast planting pace and potential for high yields, although later weather variability poses risks [1] Demand Side - April saw strong soybean meal transactions due to increased future soybean arrivals, leading to low channel inventories as downstream and traders delayed purchases [1] - Delays in soybean customs clearance in April resulted in tight soybean meal supply, driven by timing mismatches and essential demand [1] - Overall feed demand remains stable, with an increase in hog and egg-laying hen inventories, and significant year-on-year growth in feed production from January to March [1] Market Outlook - The spot basis for soybeans fluctuated significantly in April, with a sharp price drop expected after the May Day holiday as soybean customs clearance completes and oil mill operating rates recover [1] - Futures contracts are trading at discounts to spot prices, indicating increased supply expectations, which may limit the upside for soybean meal in the short term [1] - The market is advised to monitor U.S.-China trade negotiations, new season soybean planting, and the May USDA report for balance sheet forecasts [1] Strategy - For cash traders, the basis is expected to weaken in May [1] - For futures speculators, a narrow trading range is anticipated in the short term, with a bearish outlook for the July contract, neutral for the September contract, and cautious bullishness for the November and January contracts [1] - Key variables to watch include the May USDA report, U.S.-China negotiation developments, and new season soybean planting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced an increase in tariffs on U.S. imports from 84% to 125%, in response to the U.S. raising its tariffs on Chinese products to 41%, which is 20 percentage points higher than previously stated [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The Chinese government is adjusting tariffs on U.S. imports due to the lack of market acceptance for U.S. goods in China at the current tariff levels [1]. - The U.S. has imposed additional tariffs on Chinese products, resulting in a total of 145% in extra tariffs since March [1]. Group 2: Response to U.S. Actions - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S. for its unilateral tariff increases, stating that it violates international trade rules and disrupts the global market [1][2]. - China has initiated a lawsuit against the U.S. in the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding the increased tariffs, emphasizing the need to uphold multilateral trade systems [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced an increase in tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% in response to the U.S. government's unilateral imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods, which is viewed as a violation of international trade rules and economic principles [1]. Group 1 - The U.S. government declared on April 10, 2025, that it would raise tariffs on Chinese goods, which China considers a form of unilateral bullying [1]. - Starting from April 12, 2025, China will adjust the additional tariffs on U.S. imports from 84% to 125% [1]. - The current tariff levels have rendered U.S. goods unmarketable in China, and any further U.S. tariff increases will be disregarded by China [1].