Core Points - The US and China have agreed to significantly reduce tariffs, with the US lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% [1] - A 90-day tariff suspension has been established, signaling a potential stabilization in US-China trade relations [2][8] - The recent tariff changes are seen as a major benefit for export companies, although concerns remain about the sustainability of this easing [2] Tariff Changes - The US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will lower tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [1] - The agreement includes a 90-day suspension of tariffs, which is viewed as a positive development for exporters [2][8] Impact on Exporters - Many export companies have faced significant order cancellations and disruptions due to previous tariff increases, with some reporting a drop in order volumes by half [4] - The cancellation of the $800 tariff exemption has further complicated logistics for cross-border e-commerce, leading to a shift in strategies among exporters [6][10] - Exporters are now racing to utilize the 90-day window to ship goods to the US and stock local warehouses [10] Market Adaptation - The recent tariff crisis has prompted many Chinese exporters to diversify their markets beyond the US, with increased focus on regions like the Middle East and Europe [11][12] - The volatility in trade relations has led to a shift in business strategies, emphasizing the need for adaptability in uncertain environments [14]

Supply Side - The April USDA report did not adjust the supply from major producing countries, reducing supply pressure for U.S. soybeans [1] - Brazil and Argentina's soybean production expectations remain unchanged, with limited adjustment space for South American yields [1] - U.S. soybean planting has begun with favorable weather conditions, leading to a fast planting pace and potential for high yields, although later weather variability poses risks [1] Demand Side - April saw strong soybean meal transactions due to increased future soybean arrivals, leading to low channel inventories as downstream and traders delayed purchases [1] - Delays in soybean customs clearance in April resulted in tight soybean meal supply, driven by timing mismatches and essential demand [1] - Overall feed demand remains stable, with an increase in hog and egg-laying hen inventories, and significant year-on-year growth in feed production from January to March [1] Market Outlook - The spot basis for soybeans fluctuated significantly in April, with a sharp price drop expected after the May Day holiday as soybean customs clearance completes and oil mill operating rates recover [1] - Futures contracts are trading at discounts to spot prices, indicating increased supply expectations, which may limit the upside for soybean meal in the short term [1] - The market is advised to monitor U.S.-China trade negotiations, new season soybean planting, and the May USDA report for balance sheet forecasts [1] Strategy - For cash traders, the basis is expected to weaken in May [1] - For futures speculators, a narrow trading range is anticipated in the short term, with a bearish outlook for the July contract, neutral for the September contract, and cautious bullishness for the November and January contracts [1] - Key variables to watch include the May USDA report, U.S.-China negotiation developments, and new season soybean planting [1]

"美方肆意加征单边关税，严重违反国际经贸规则，也违背基本的经济规律和常识，造成当前世界经 济、全球市场和多边贸易体制面临严重冲击和剧烈动荡，美方对此应负全部责任。"商务部新闻发言人 称。 4月11日，国务院关税税则委员会公告，自4月12日起，调整原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税率，由此 前的84%提高至125%。这是近期国务院关税税则委员会发布的第二则调整加征关税措施公告。 "鉴于在目前关税水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征 关税，中方将不予理会。"国务院关税税则委员会在公告中表示。 商务部新闻发言人4月11日指出，美东时间4月10日，美方公布行政令，进一步提高对中国产品加征 的"对等关税"。美方行政令公布的对中国产品加征的税率为41%，比此前美方所称的加征关税税率还高 20个百分点。 本周内，美国多次调整所谓的"对等关税"政策，加上3月初以来美国就所谓芬太尼问题施加的20%关 税，截至目前，美国对中国产品征收的额外关税已达145%。 该负责人强调，美方对华轮番加征畸高关税已经沦为数字游戏，在经济上已无实际意义，只会更加暴露 出美方将关税工具化、武器化，搞霸凌胁迫的伎俩， ...

国 务 院 关 税 税 则 委 员 会 今 天 发 布 公 告 ， 2 0 2 5 年 4 月 1 0 日 ， 美 国 政 府 宣 布 对 中 国 输 美 商 品 征 收"对等关税"的税率进一步提高至1 2 5%。美方对华加征畸高关税，严重违反国际经贸规则， 也违背基本的经济规律和常识，完全是单边霸凌胁迫做法。 根据《中华人民共和国关税法》、《中华人民共和国海关法》、《中华人民共和国对外贸易 法》等法律法规和国际法基本原则，经国务院批准，自2 0 2 5年4月1 2日起，调整对原产于美国 的进口商品加征关税措施。有关事项如下： 本期编辑 金珊 二、其他事项按照《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》 （税委会公告2 0 2 5年第4号）执行。 来源 | 央视新闻 SFC 一、调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》 （税委会公告2 0 2 5年第5号）规定的加征关税税率， 由8 4%提高至1 2 5% 。鉴于在目前关税 水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税， 中方将不予理会。 ...