（原标题：阿联酋经济2026年增速上调至5%，有望继续领先全球主要经济体） Zawya新闻网1月9日报道，渣打银行最新研究显示，阿联酋经济增长前景进一步改善，2026年国内 生产总值（GDP）增速预计达到5%，高于此前4%的预测，并明显快于全球平均水平。该行指出，强劲 的贸易规模、充裕的银行体系流动性以及非石油经济的持续扩张，是支撑增长预期上调的主要因素。 渣打银行中东及巴基斯坦首席执行官Rola Abu Manneh表示，阿联酋连续两年有望实现"潜在增 速"运行，继续成为全球经济版图中的亮点。数据显示，阿联酋2026年的增速预计将超过中国 （4.6%）、美国（2.3%）以及欧元区（1.1%）。 报告认为，随着全球供应链重组，阿联酋作为区域贸易与物流枢纽的地位将进一步巩固。渣打全球 研究团队预计，阿联酋对外贸易总额今年有望接近1万亿美元，非石油部门明年预计增长4.5%，主要受 人口结构改善及房地产市场强劲表现推动。 广告 精彩推荐 7 券商今日金股：4份研报力推一股（名... 内容精选 5 2 观想科技：传统业务持续萎缩，净利跌... 3 集友股份去年扣非净利润或迎上市首亏... 4 A股，沸腾了！股市跨入新 ...

（原标题：亚洲开发银行：2026年越南经济迎来三大战略机遇） 《越通社》1月1日报道，亚洲开发银行（ADB）驻越南首席代表尚塔努·查克拉博蒂（Shantanu Chakraborty）应邀接受越通社记者采访。尚表示，尽管面临诸多全球性挑战，越南经济在2025年仍取得 积极成果。前三季度国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长7.9%，高于2024年同期的6.8%，且季度增速逐步 改善。通胀率保持在约3.3%的可控水平。信贷增长势头强劲，全年预计达18%-19%，高于16%的既定目 标。 尚认为，贸易和投资继续成为越南经济增长的主要动力。截至11月底，出口额达4300亿美元，同比 增长16.1%；进口额达4100亿美元，同比增长18.4%，贸易顺差扩大至205亿美元。前11个月实际到位外 商直接投资达236亿美元，同比增长8.9%。与此同时，在扩大财政政策支持公共投资以及房地产市场复 苏的带动下，国内投资亦有所回升。服务业在签证政策更加便利以及国家重大纪念活动的推动下显著复 苏。 然而，越南经济仍面临不少挑战。自然灾害和气候变化造成的经济损失估计约40亿美元，相当于接 近GDP的0.8%。对贸易和外资高度依赖，使经济更易 ...

50%的关税砸向了印度班加罗尔最大的玩具厂仓库里面，2000万美元的圣诞玩具堆成了山却发不出去，1500万美元的新订单全黄了，特朗普的贸易重拳，瞬 间就击碎了印度替代中国做玩具大国的美梦。 这不是单一工厂的悲剧，而是全球供应链替代神话的残酷现实，所以想要靠搭上地缘政治的便车，取代中国制造业的国家，都躲不过这一场收割。 今年的8月份，特朗普重返白宫以后，就对印度的商品加征高达50%的关税，直接就导致了印度玩具制造商的美国订单被大量的取消。 印度曾经是期待在中美贸易摩擦中渔翁得利的，但是如今却被同一套关税武器给精准的打击了。 维詹德拉·巴布的工厂曾经是跟美泰、孩之宝等全球的玩具巨头签订了合同，每天是发送十几辆满载圣诞玩具的货车。 但是特朗普的关税生效以后，他的客户暂停或者是直接取消了价值1500万美元的新订单，仓库里面是积压了2000万美元没有办法发货的商品。 巴布是这样描述的：这就像是按下了暂停键一样。他原本是预计今年增长40%的，现在却面临着15%的下滑。 为了维持生产线的正常运转，他甚至是同意以成本价来进行生产，只为避免裁掉2000多名工人。 特朗普的关税大棒，他是不分敌友的，印度试图想要在中美博弈当中左右 ...

Group 1 - Platinum has become a new favorite in the international precious metals market, with prices soaring to $1,959 per ounce, nearly doubling in value [1] - The surge in platinum prices is driven by resource scarcity and significant changes in the energy landscape, marking a major industrial reshuffle [1] - South Africa, which produces about 70% of the world's platinum, has faced production challenges due to severe weather and ongoing power issues, leading to a 13% drop in annual output [2][6] Group 2 - The current supply of platinum is critically low, with available stock only sufficient for three months, exacerbating the demand-supply gap [3] - The hydrogen energy sector is rapidly expanding, requiring substantial amounts of platinum as a catalyst, with projections indicating that by 2025, the hydrogen industry alone will consume 50 tons of platinum [9][11] - The demand for platinum is further fueled by a rise in consumer interest in platinum jewelry, particularly in the Chinese market, where sales have increased significantly [16] Group 3 - Recent movements in the platinum market include the transfer of physical platinum from London to New York by U.S. entities, reflecting strategic positioning amid global supply chain reconfigurations [19] - The rapid increase in platinum prices has attracted significant interest from investors, but the mining industry faces challenges in ramping up production, which may take years to improve [21] - The current platinum market dynamics represent a shift from being an overlooked precious metal to a key asset in the global resource competition, driven by factors such as great power rivalry and capital influx [23]

綦鲁明（中国国际经济交流中心） 在特朗普政府对外采取加征关税政策、对内实施激进债务扩张策略的推动下，美国财政收支面临新的不 平衡，给美国自身及全球经济带来诸多不良影响。我们应采取积极有效的措施，予以化解和应对。 美国财政收支结构失衡诱因仍在持续积累 根据美国财政部和国会预算办公室（CBO）的数据，2025财年（2024年10月~2025年9月）联邦财政收 入5.2万亿美元，支出7.01万亿美元，预算赤字约1.8万亿美元。这是美国连续第六年赤字超1万亿美元。 从收入情况看，个人所得税2.66万亿美元，同比增长10%，仍保持美国财政收入主要来源的地位。其他 收入来源中，关税收入暴涨，增幅远大于其他项目，显示特朗普政府欲把财政收入转向更多依靠关税， 减少对个人所得税等项目的依赖。 从支出情况看，支出主要发生在社会保障福利、医疗保险和医疗补助3项强制性支出项目上。其他支出 较多的项目是债务利息、国防军费开支，其中债务利息支出突破万亿美元。 总体看，当前美国提高财政收入渠道仍然缺乏。关税收入虽有较大规模增长，但远不能覆盖其债务利息 支出，对缓解庞大债务压力的作用更是微乎其微。从中长期看，加征关税还会导致美国进口量下降， ...

【环球时报驻韩国特约记者 黎枳银】"韩美关税谈判结束后，韩国大企业一致提出了扩大国内投资的方案。"韩国《东亚日报》近日报道称，随着 韩企未来每年或需向美国投入高达约200亿美元，韩国业界对本土投资萎缩、产业空洞化的担忧不断加剧，民间舆论普遍呼吁政府出台有力政策， 支持本国产业发展。在此背景下，韩国四大企业集团（三星、SK、现代汽车、LG）掌门人日前出席韩美关税谈判后的民官联合会议并公布了本 土投资计划。 投资总额超 5500 亿美元 据韩媒分析，相关计划的密集推出一方面是针对"国内投资萎缩"忧虑的直接回应，另一方面也反映出在全球供应链重组压力增大的背景下，韩国 企业重新强化国内制造基地的重要性。 美韩两国政府于上周五公布了贸易协议细节，包括韩国向美国造船业投资1500亿美元，以及向美国其他产业额外投资2000亿美元。"公众担心韩国 的制造业可能会被3500亿美元的美国投资承诺掏空。"彭博社报道称。《韩民族日报》也表示，大规模对美投资势必导致企业内部资源再分配，在 可用资源有限的情况下，国内投资被挤压的担忧难以避免。 除了上述担忧之外，韩联社援引业内观点称，在对外不确定性有所缓和之际，加强国内生产基础被视为提升 ...

Investment Overview - South Korea has agreed to invest $350 billion in the U.S. in exchange for a reduction in tariffs from 25% to 15% [1] - The investment is divided into two parts: $200 billion in cash and $150 billion for shipbuilding cooperation [1] - The cash investment will be phased in, with a maximum of $20 billion per year, to minimize impact on South Korea's foreign exchange market [1] Sector Focus - The primary focus of the investment is on semiconductors, with Samsung and SK Hynix planning to build chip factories in the U.S. [3] - Samsung is set to invest an additional $25 billion in its Texas facility [3] - The electric vehicle and battery sectors are also significant, with Hyundai Motor Group planning to invest $26 billion in the U.S. and collaborating with LG Energy Solution to build a battery factory with over $4.3 billion investment [3] - South Korea's three major battery companies—Samsung SDI, LG, and SK On—are planning to establish 15 battery factories in the U.S. [3] Economic Rationale - The investment strategy is aimed at countering U.S. tariff pressures, allowing South Korean products to compete on equal footing with Japanese products in the U.S. market [3] - In 2022, nearly half of South Korea's total automotive exports went to the U.S., with Hyundai and Kia incurring over 3 trillion won in tariffs in the third quarter alone [3] Corporate Plans - Specific corporate investment plans include Samsung's $17 billion factory in Texas, Hyundai's $11.4 billion electric vehicle plant in Georgia, and SK Group's planned $22 billion investment [3] Challenges and Risks - South Korea's economy is smaller than Japan's, with foreign exchange reserves of approximately $416 billion, posing liquidity and exchange rate pressures [4] - Recent tightening of U.S. worker visa policies and incidents involving the arrest of hundreds of South Korean workers at Hyundai's battery plant add uncertainty to the investment [4] - The $350 billion investment represents a strategic move to address U.S. tariff pressures and actively participate in global supply chain restructuring, but maintaining market access while preserving industrial autonomy poses significant challenges for South Korea [4]

Core Viewpoint - China's recent announcement to suspend export restrictions on key minerals such as gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite from now until November 27, 2026, marks a strategic shift in the ongoing US-China competition [1] Group 1: Strategic Implications - The suspension of export restrictions is perceived as a tactical retreat that allows China to gain leverage, particularly in the semiconductor and renewable energy sectors, where gallium and germanium are critical [3] - The US is facing a strategic dilemma in the critical minerals sector, as domestic production is insufficient and relies heavily on Chinese technology for rare earth separation [3] - The timing of this announcement coincides with the US election cycle, presenting a challenge for the new government to choose between continued confrontation or pragmatic cooperation with China [5] Group 2: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The global supply chain is undergoing significant restructuring, with countries like Australia and Canada ramping up mining efforts, yet lacking sufficient refining capacity [5] - China currently controls 95% of the global graphite refining capacity, making it difficult for other nations to quickly overcome this dominance [5] - The temporary lifting of export restrictions may deepen Western reliance on Chinese minerals, highlighting the dual-edged nature of supply chain weaponization [6] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The export suspension is seen as a strategic move to buy time for China's advancements in next-generation technologies, such as solid-state batteries and silicon carbide chips, which are on the verge of industrialization [6] - While the West focuses on rebuilding raw material supply chains, China is positioning itself for technological breakthroughs that could redefine industry standards [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "upgraded" export control dialogue between China and the EU aims to stabilize supply chains amidst rising tensions over rare earth exports, particularly in light of U.S. threats to impose tariffs if China continues its restrictions [1][3][5]. Group 1: China-EU Dialogue - The dialogue held in Brussels from October 31 to November 1 was prompted by China's announcement to expand its rare earth export controls, which raised serious concerns from the EU [1][3]. - EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis confirmed that China indicated the suspension of rare earth export controls would also apply to the EU, alleviating weeks of EU anxiety [3][5]. - The establishment of this dialogue mechanism reflects a pragmatic response to the global supply chain restructuring trend, highlighting shared interests beyond ideological differences [5][10]. Group 2: U.S. Response - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's threats to impose tariffs on China appear strategically timed to disrupt the improving China-EU relations and prevent Europe from successfully acquiring rare earths [7][10]. - The U.S. has a history of attempting to undermine China's relationships with other nations, including the EU, as part of its broader strategy to isolate China [8][10]. - Despite the U.S. being a traditional ally of Europe, there are underlying tensions, as both the U.S. and Europe rely on China's rare earth exports, leading to a competitive dynamic [10][11]. Group 3: Future Implications - The complexity of the current geopolitical landscape suggests that future interactions will be nuanced, with the need for all parties to balance their interests while respecting each other's concerns [12][14]. - The ongoing dialogue between China and the EU contrasts with the U.S. approach of pressure, indicating a potential shift in how global supply chain security issues may be resolved through negotiation [14]. - The future configuration of critical mineral supply chains will depend on the ability of involved parties to find cooperative spaces amidst competition, which poses both a challenge and a test of foresight [14].

Core Viewpoint - Singapore's recent comments on China's self-sufficiency and global interdependence reflect its anxiety over the shifting dynamics in global supply chains and its own economic reliance on China and the U.S. [1][3][5] Group 1: Singapore's Position - Singapore's President urged China to abandon self-sufficiency and maintain interdependence with the U.S. and Europe, highlighting a desire for China to continue its role in the global supply chain [1][3]. - The country has historically relied on both the U.S. for defense and China for trade, with China being Singapore's largest trading partner for the past decade, accounting for approximately 14% of its trade [5][7]. - Recent shifts in Singapore's rhetoric suggest a more direct approach, possibly due to increasing pressures from U.S.-China competition and declining export figures [5][9]. Group 2: Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund projects that by 2024, China's manufacturing share of the global market will approach 32%, surpassing that of the U.S. and EU combined [3]. - China's self-sufficiency in key sectors, such as chips and renewable energy, is increasing, with a projected chip self-sufficiency rate exceeding 33% and over 60% of the global export share in the renewable energy supply chain [3][9]. - Singapore's manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for five consecutive months, indicating economic contraction, and the World Bank forecasts an 8% decline in Singapore's exports in 2024 [5][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Dynamics - The frequency of U.S. officials visiting Singapore has increased, focusing on "Asia-Pacific security architecture" and "supply chain resilience," indicating Singapore's role in U.S. strategies in the region [7][9]. - Singapore's balancing act between the U.S. and China reflects its concerns about losing its intermediary role in regional trade if China achieves full self-sufficiency [7][9]. - The country's anxiety stems from a fear of losing influence and economic viability if global supply chains become more localized and self-sufficient [9][11].