二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 01 月 11 日 豆粕：等待 USDA 报告指引 豆一：关注 USDA 报告、抛储 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（01.05～01.09），美豆期价"涨跌互现、重心小幅上移"，中方持续采购美豆具有偏多影响。 从周 K 线角度，1 月 9 日当周，美豆主力 03 月合约周涨幅 1.6%，美豆粕主力 03 月合约周涨幅 2.67%。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 一周日均成交约 20 万吨。2）提货：豆粕提货量周环比下降。据钢联统计，截至 1 月 9 日当周，主要油厂 豆粕日均提货量约 17.4 万吨，前一周日均提货量约 18.2 万吨。3）基差：豆粕基差周环比略降。据统 计，截至 1 月 9 日当周，豆粕（张家港）基差周均值约 344 元/吨，前一周约 356 元/吨，去年同期约 275 元/吨。4）库存：豆粕库存周环比上升、同比上升。据钢联统计（111 家油厂），截至 1 月 2 日当周，我 国主流油厂豆粕库存约 106 万吨，周环比增幅约 3.6%，同比增幅约 74%。5）压榨 ...

2026年01月11日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 上周(01.05~01.09),美豆期价"涨跌互现、重心小幅上移",中方持续采购美豆具有偏多影响。 从周 K 线角度, 1 月 9 日当周, 美豆主力 03 月合约周涨幅 1.6%, 美豆粕主力 03 月合约周涨幅 2.67%。 上周(01.05~01.09),国内豆粕期价偏强震荡,豆一期价上涨。豆粕方面,偏多因素:国内市场情 结偏强。市场传言反复:6号传言进口大豆拍卖暂停、7号和8号传言拍卖重启。1月9日下午进口大豆 拍卖公告正式发布:1月13日拍卖进口大豆约114万吨。偏空因素:中加贸易前景乐观(加拿大总理将 于下周访问中国)、莱柏下跌。豆一方面,主要利多因素是国内商品市场情绪偏强。此外,市场传言"国 储拍卖延后"、国内现货价格偏强也提供支撑。从周长线角度,1月9日当周,豆粕主力 m2605 合约周涨 幅 1.35%,豆一主力 a2605 合约周涨幅 3.23%。(上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周(01.05~01.09),国际大豆市场主要基本面情况:1)中方持续采购美豆,影响中性 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

农业专场-2026 年度策略会 20151223 摘要 2025 年航运市场受三大联盟重组、关税贸易战及全球经济压力影响， 船公司定价保守，运费低于预期。西北欧和地中海航线因 MSC 和 Ocean 联盟调整运力，供给侧变量发生变化。 预计 2026 年交付的 24,000 标准箱新巴拿马型船不会显著增加西北欧 和地中海航线的运力，因其应用场景广泛，现有线路已能满足需求。航 运公司通过拉长航线、布局新兴市场和新增航线来应对苏伊士运河恢复 通航。 2025 年中国对美国出口预计负增长，美国进口下滑源于内部经济压力， 而非贸易争端。亚欧航线受益于欧洲对中国商品的需求，总体倾向卖方 市场，出口货量创新高。 预计 2026 年航线总数不会显著增加，新增运力主要集中在 Ocean 航线， 以大型船只替换小型船只。体育产业和传集运产业可能提前进入价格竞 争。 2025 年油脂市场受棕榈油增产预期、中加经贸关系及美国生物柴油题 材炒作影响，走势分化。马来西亚油棕种植业面临树林老化问题，重置 率低，预计 2026 年产量难以持续增长。 Q&A 2025 年航运市场的整体表现如何？ 2025 年航运市场经历了显著的疲软，与 2 ...

2025年12月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：等待拐点确认，暂时区间操作 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：偏弱震荡，注意规避USDA报告风险 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求 | 9 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,706 | 涨跌幅 -0.73% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,698 | 涨跌幅 -0.09% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,230 | -0.44% | 8,026 | -2.48% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,502 | -1.21% ...

豆粕周报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 等待 USDA 报告指引 连粕延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 豆粕周报 一、市场数据 | 合约 | 12 月 5 日 | 11 月 28 日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT 大豆 | 1105.25 | 1137.25 | -32.00 | -2.81% | 美分/蒲式耳 | | CNF 进口价：巴西 | 481.00 | 500.00 | -19.00 | -3.80% | 美元/吨 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the meal futures market is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of China-US negotiations. The US government subsidizes farmers with tariff revenues, but the market expects the price to remain in a narrow range at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders are placed. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report are also points of concern. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is limited by high inventories in the near term, and the market is expected to rebound with reduced sensitivity and amplitude. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly influenced by the results of China-Canada negotiations and the supply recovery expectations and soybean meal prices [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - The near - month supply is under pressure as the port and oil mill inventories of imported soybeans in China are high, the oil mill crushing volume is rising, and the soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The rapeseed meal follows the decline of soybean meal but is slightly stronger. The rising warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal also dominates the near - month supply pressure narrative on the market [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.9%. The forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.5% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventories, to prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - Feed mills with low procurement inventories can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, up 10 (0.34%); soybean meal 05 is 2746, down 8 (-0.29%); soybean meal 09 is 2858, down 10 (-0.35%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2392, up 1 (0.04%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2315, down 13 (-0.56%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2403, down 11 (-0.46%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1007, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1241, unchanged (0%) [7]. 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 168, unchanged; RM01 - 05 is 63, down 38; M05 - 09 is -114, down 6; RM05 - 09 is -86, down 5; M09 - 01 is -54, up 22; RM09 - 01 is 23, up 43. The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2990, unchanged, and the basis is 68, up 60. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2520, down 30, and the basis is 129, up 14. The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 470, up 60, and the futures spread is 531, unchanged [9]. 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4373.7225 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.0402 weekly. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3897.84 yuan/ton, down 2.21 daily and 22.69 weekly. The profit of US Gulf soybean imports (23%) is -544.0825 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 58.5843 weekly. The profit of Brazilian soybean imports is 89.1616 yuan/ton, up 54.7861 daily and 0.8951 weekly. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 972 yuan/ton, up 29 daily and 9 weekly, and the spot profit is 1205 yuan/ton, up 40 daily and 45 weekly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, the night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal weakened. The USDA quarterly inventory report had a neutral impact on the market. There is a high expectation of a reduction in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report due to poor weather since late August. However, the postponement of the October USDA report restrains market trading, and domestic supply sufficiency suppresses the market, so it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will continue to fluctuate within a range [2] - For oils, the night - session of oils was weak. The MPOB report showed that the inventory accumulation was higher than expected, which may put short - term pressure on the oil market. But in the long - term, as Southeast Asian production areas enter the production - reduction season and there is support from international biodiesel for consumption demand, the price center of oils is expected to move up [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8100, 9126, 9921, 2930, 2457, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 14, 72, - 75, 2, - 35, and 26, and the percentage changes were 0.17%, 0.80%, - 3.15%, 0.07%, - 1.40%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09, M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 are - 320, - 538, - 380, - 808, 1761, 953, - 74, 3, 458, 1.19, 2.72, 4924 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4299 (ringgit/ton), 1009 (cents/bushel), 50 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were - 84, - 4, - 0, - 1, and the percentage changes were - 1.92%, - 0.40%, - 0.14%, - 0.40% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. are 8310, 8430, 9130 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of various products are provided, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 210, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 560 [1] Import and Profit - The current values of import profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 417, - 28 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 25534, 1500, 8057, 39055, 9245, 0 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] Industry Information - As of October 5, soybean harvesting was 39% complete, higher than the same period in previous years. Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US 2025/26 soybeans in the week ending October 2 to be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons [2] - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 495,415 tons, a 19.37% increase compared to the same period last month [2]

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, with soybean meal futures showing a decline of approximately 3.60% [1] - Current soybean supply in China is ample due to high import volumes and oil mills maintaining high operating levels, leading to rising soybean meal inventories [1] - The USDA report has adjusted the U.S. soybean planting area upwards to 81.1 million acres while lowering the yield estimate to 53.5 bushels per acre, impacting market expectations [2] Group 2 - The market sentiment is cautious due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential volatility expected from social media statements by U.S. officials [1] - Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and meal is expected to exert short-term pressure on the soybean complex [2] - The soybean harvest in the U.S. is underway, which is anticipated to increase supply pressure in the market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The September USDA report had a neutral - weak impact on soybeans, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory, and a decrease in global production. Attention should be paid to the US soybean harvest progress [2]. - Uncertainty in Sino - US tariffs affects domestic soybean procurement in November, and future import changes need to be monitored. The market has been volatile due to Sino - US uncertainties [6]. - The domestic supply - demand situation for beans and rapeseed has shown little change. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in imports, but the situation remains uncertain. Low domestic rapeseed inventory may slow down rapeseed crushing and affect the supply of rapeseed meal and oil [6]. - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation phase. The demand is in the off - season, but the National Day peak season may boost demand. There is an overall slightly surplus situation with high inventory pressure and some support from peak - season demand [37]. - The MPOB report on palm oil showed that inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the September report was moderately positive. Attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil market and biodiesel. Domestic palm oil inventory accumulation has slowed, reducing supply - demand pressure [38]. - The domestic rapeseed oil market lacks new themes and is in a continuous inventory reduction cycle. Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply, and changes in imports from Russia should be monitored. Terminal purchasing willingness is low, and the market is highly volatile at high levels [38]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal - The September USDA report was neutral - weak, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production. Monitor the US soybean harvest progress [2]. - Uncertain Sino - US tariffs have led to inactive domestic soybean procurement in November. Pay attention to import changes and the progress of Sino - US tariffs [6]. - Both the spot and futures markets have been oscillating recently [6]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - The domestic supply - demand situation has changed little. Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in imports, but the outcome is uncertain. Monitor domestic rapeseed import progress [6]. - Low domestic rapeseed inventory may slow down rapeseed crushing, affecting the supply of rapeseed meal and oil. The spot market has remained stable, and the domestic market has shown a slightly stronger oscillating trend recently [6]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in the inventory accumulation phase [37]. - Demand is in the off - season, but the National Day peak season may boost demand. There is an overall slightly surplus situation with high inventory pressure and some support from peak - season demand [37]. 3.4 Palm Oil - The MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the September report was moderately positive [38]. - Pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and biodiesel. Domestic palm oil inventory accumulation has slowed, reducing supply - demand pressure. Import costs have risen, but the domestic basis is weak [38]. 3.5 Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil market lacks new themes and is in a continuous inventory reduction cycle [38]. - Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply, and changes in imports from Russia should be monitored. Terminal purchasing willingness is low, and the market is highly volatile at high levels [38].