Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract dropped 6.5 to close at 1056.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.61%; the May bean meal contract fell 59 to 2727 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.12%; the South China bean meal spot price dropped 40 to 3100 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.27%; the May rapeseed meal contract declined 83 to 2255 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.55%; and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 60 to 2450 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.39% [4][7]. - The external market was under pressure and oscillated. The overall bearishness of the January USDA report, the strengthening of the South American bumper harvest expectation, the ongoing Brazilian harvest, and the significant increase in the January export supply put pressure on the market. Support factors included the accelerated pace of US soybean export sales, China's achievement of the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year, the continued increase in US soybean crushing in December, and the expected boost from US biodiesel policies. Domestically, the overall price of meal products declined. The auction of imported soybeans was fully sold, alleviating the expectation of tight supply. Additionally, the trading volume of domestic long - term basis contracts increased, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment continued. The easing of China - Canada trade relations led to expectations of increased long - term rapeseed meal supply [4][8]. - After the release of the USDA report, the reduction in US soybean exports and the increase in Brazilian production had an overall bearish impact. China's goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year was basically achieved, and the full sale of imported soybean auctions in China alleviated the expectation of short - term supply tightness. The inventories of soybeans and bean meal at oil mills were at a high level compared to the same period. As the subsequent arrivals decreased month - on - month, the inventory reduction pace might accelerate. The pre - holiday stocking demand continued, and the trading volume of bean meal increased significantly last week. It is expected that the Dalian bean meal will oscillate weakly in the short term [4][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | January 16th | January 9th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1056.25 | 1062.75 | - 6.50 | - 0.61% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 448.00 | 450.00 | - 2.00 | - 0.44% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 473.00 | 475.00 | - 2.00 | - 0.42% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 37.87 | 49.51 | - 11.65 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 2727.00 | 2786.00 | - 59.00 | - 2.12% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2255.00 | 2338.00 | - 83.00 | - 3.55% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 472.00 | 448.00 | 24.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3120.00 | 3140.00 | - 20.00 | - 0.64% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3100.00 | 3140.00 | - 40.00 | - 1.27% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | 373.00 | 354.00 | 19.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - External market: The overall bearishness of the January USDA report, the strengthening of the South American bumper harvest expectation (Brazil's harvest work is ongoing, and the January export supply has been significantly increased; the crop conditions in the Argentine production area are good), the accelerated pace of US soybean export sales, China's achievement of the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year, the continued increase in US soybean crushing in December, and the expected boost from US biodiesel policies. Domestic market: The overall price of meal products declined. The auction of 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, alleviating the expectation of tight supply. The trading volume of domestic long - term basis contracts increased, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment continued. Canada's rapeseed is expected to enter China normally from March 1, 2026. China will reduce the comprehensive tax rate from about 85% to 15% and cancel relevant counter - tariffs on rapeseed meal, etc., with the validity period until the end of 2026, making rapeseed meal perform more weakly [8]. - The January USDA report shows that in the 2025/26 season, the US soybean yield remains unchanged at 53 bushels per acre, the production is slightly increased to 4.262 billion bushels, the crushing demand is increased by 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels, the export demand is decreased by 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 350 million bushels (previously estimated at 290 million bushels), indicating a more relaxed supply. Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the previous month, and the export demand is 114 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons from the previous month. Argentina's soybean production is estimated to be 48.5 million tons, remaining unchanged, and the export demand remains at 8.25 million tons [9]. - As of December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the farm inventory was 1.58 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2%, and the non - farm inventory was 1.71 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10%. As of the week of January 8, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 2.062 million tons (compared to 878,000 tons in the previous week). The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 30.637 million tons, with a sales progress of 71.5% (compared to 80.1% in the same period last year). China's net purchase of US soybeans in that week was 1.224 million tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 8.117 million tons and an unshipped volume of 6.024 million tons. Last week, private exporters reported exporting 706,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,404 tons of soybeans to Mexico, all for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Considering the purchases from unknown destinations, it is estimated that the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year has been achieved. In December 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [10]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the US soybean crushing margin was 2.12 US dollars per bushel. The spot price of 48% protein bean meal at soybean processing plants in central Illinois was 305.23 US dollars per short ton, and the price of No. 1 yellow soybeans per truck was 10.62 US dollars per bushel. As of the week of January 10, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 0.6% (compared to 0.1% last week, 0.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 1%). Brazil's soybean export volume in January is expected to be 3.73 million tons (previously estimated at 2.4 million tons). As of the week of January 14, 2026, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 93.9% (compared to 88.3% in the previous week and 98.2% in the same period last year). The weather forecast for South American production areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in Brazil's soybean production area will be slightly lower than the average, and the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine production area is expected to be 50 mm, lower than the normal level [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.1312 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.0856 million tons compared to the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a decrease of 126,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 439,400 tons compared to the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 5.4086 million tons, a decrease of 389,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 846,100 tons compared to the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.028 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 315,700 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 665,720 tons (including 114,700 tons of spot trading and 551,020 tons of forward trading, compared to a daily average total trading volume of 305,420 tons in the previous week); the daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 185,900 tons (compared to 173,850 tons in the previous week). The crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9942 million tons (compared to 1.7658 million tons in the previous week), and the inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 9.94 days (compared to 9.53 days in the previous week) [12]. Industry News - South American production forecasts show that Brazil's upcoming soybean harvest is expected to reach a record 178.7 million tons, and Argentina's production is estimated to be 51.1 million tons. The current weather forecast does not show extreme conditions, consolidating the expectation of a large supply in South America and putting pressure on the international market [14]. - As of the week of January 4, 2026, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 22.1% to 147,800 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2025, to January 4, 2026, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 2.8088 million tons, a 40.5% decrease compared to the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.0012 million tons [14]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean harvest rate in the 2025/26 season was 0.6% (compared to 0.3% in the same period last year). Mato Grosso is leading the harvest process, and there is also some harvest activity in Paraná. Some areas have a slightly delayed harvest due to the extended growth cycle of soybeans [14]. - As of January 9, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season was 0.53% (compared to only 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39% in the same period). The harvest progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest soybean - producing state, is higher than the recent average but lower than the 2024 harvest progress. In other regions of Brazil, the harvest is still in its early stages, mainly concentrated in irrigated areas [15]. - In early January 2026, Brazil's soybean export pace was significantly higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 9, 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume was 645,738 tons (compared to 1.069 million tons in January 2025). The average daily export volume as of now in January is 107,623 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.5% [15]. - The CONAB agency has revised down the estimated production of Brazil's soybeans in the 2025/26 season to 176.1 million tons (previously estimated at 177.1 million tons), the planted area to 48.7 million hectares (previously estimated at 48.9 million hectares), and the export volume to 111.8 million tons (previously estimated at 112.1 million tons) [15]. - The Agroconsult agency expects Brazil's soybean planted area in the 2025/26 season to be 48.8 million hectares, the same as the November forecast, and the production to be 182.2 million tons, higher than the November forecast of 178.1 million tons. As the crop inspection progresses, there is still room to further revise up the forecast of Brazil's soybean production [16].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The prices of soybean meal and soybeans in the domestic and international markets last week showed different trends, and the prices next week are expected to be mainly influenced by the USDA report. For soybean meal, if the report is bullish, the price is expected to rise; if it is neutral, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. For soybeans, besides the USDA report, the domestic reserve auction situation also needs to be concerned [1][2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Price Trends - In the week of January 5 - 9, the US soybean futures prices "fluctuated up and down with a slightly upward center of gravity", with the main March 03 contract of US soybeans rising 1.6% week - on - week and the main March 03 contract of US soybean meal rising 2.67% week - on - week. The domestic soybean meal futures prices oscillated strongly, and the soybean futures prices rose. The main m2605 contract of soybean meal rose 1.35% week - on - week, and the main a2605 contract of soybeans rose 3.23% week - on - week [1][2]. Influencing Factors of Domestic Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish factors include strong domestic market sentiment and the official announcement of an auction of about 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans on January 13. Bearish factors include the optimistic outlook for China - Canada trade and the decline in rapeseed meal prices [2]. - **Soybeans**: The main bullish factor is the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market. In addition, market rumors of "delayed state reserve auction" and strong domestic spot prices also provide support [2]. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **China's Purchases**: From January 5 - 9, the cumulative large - order sales of US soybeans to China were about 666,000 tons (for 2025/26 delivery), which has a moderately bullish impact [2]. - **USDA Export Sales Report**: In the week of January 1, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans decreased compared to the previous week, which has a moderately bearish impact. The export shipments of 2025/26 US soybeans were about 1.11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 9% and a year - on - year decrease of about 23%; the cumulative export shipments were about 16.35 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 45% [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of the week of January 9, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week, with a neutral impact [2]. - **South American Weather Forecast**: In the next two weeks (January 10 - 23), the precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas will vary, and the temperature will be "high first and then low, with little deviation from the average". The precipitation in the Argentine soybean - producing areas will be basically normal, and the temperature will be "initially low and then return to normal". Overall, the impact of weather problems in the producing areas is not significant, but it still needs attention [2]. Domestic Spot Market Conditions Soybean Meal - **Transaction Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, and the trading volume of far - month basis was relatively large. As of the week of January 9, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 310,000 tons, compared with about 200,000 tons in the previous week [3][5]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of January 9, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 174,000 tons, compared with about 182,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of January 9, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 344 yuan/ton, compared with about 356 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 275 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of January 2, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 1.06 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of about 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of about 74% [5]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased slightly week - on - week and is expected to rise next week. As of the week of January 9, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 1.77 million tons (1.75 million tons in the previous week and 1.93 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 49% (48% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (January 10 - 16), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.08 million tons (2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 57% (68% in the same period last year) [5]. Soybeans - **Price**: The soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some northeastern regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans increased by 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; in some inland regions, the purchase price remained the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the selling price of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [6]. - **Farmer Behavior**: Farmers in the northeastern producing areas were reluctant to sell, and the market was waiting for the auction. The remaining grain in the hands of grass - roots farmers was less than that of the same period last year, and the bullish sentiment was strong. The procurement of trading entities was slow, and they were waiting for the state reserve auction announcement with obvious wait - and - see sentiment [6]. - **Sales Area Situation**: The price increase in the sales areas was limited, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking. The price increase in the sales areas was smaller than that in the producing areas because there were some inventories in each link of the market, and the new demand for terminal soy products was limited [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (01.05 - 01.09), the US soybean futures prices showed a mixed trend with a slight upward shift in the center. The continuous procurement of US soybeans by China had a moderately positive impact. The domestic soybean meal futures prices fluctuated strongly, and the soybean No.1 futures prices rose [2]. - Next week (01.12 - 01.16), the price fluctuations of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures are expected to mainly depend on the USDA report. For soybean meal, if the report is bullish, the price is expected to rise; if it is neutral, the price is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level. For soybean No.1, the previous market sentiment was strong, and the futures price reached a new high. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the USDA report and domestic reserve sales [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price Performance - **US Soybean Futures**: In the week of January 9, the main March contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 1.6%, and the main March contract of US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 2.67% [2]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 Futures**: In the week of January 9, the main m2605 contract of domestic soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.35%, and the main a2605 contract of soybean No.1 had a weekly increase of 3.23% [2]. Domestic Spot Market Conditions - **Soybean Meal Spot**: From 01.04 - 01.09, the domestic soybean meal spot price slightly increased. The trading volume increased week - on - week, with more long - term basis contracts. The提货 volume decreased week - on - week. The basis slightly decreased week - on - week. The inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. The soybean crushing volume slightly increased week - on - week and is expected to rise next week [3][5]. - **Soybean No.1 Spot**: From 01.04 - 01.09, the domestic soybean No.1 spot price was moderately strong. The prices in some Northeast and sales areas increased, while those in some inland areas remained flat. Farmers in the Northeast production area were reluctant to sell, and the market was waiting for the reserve auction. The price increase in the sales area was limited, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking [6]. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **China's Procurement of US Soybeans**: From January 5 - 9, the cumulative large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China were about 66.6 tons (for 2025/26 delivery), which had a moderately positive impact [2]. - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: In the week of January 1, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week, with a 9% week - on - week and about 23% year - on - year decrease in the export shipment of 2025/26 US soybeans, and about a 45% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative export shipment. The total weekly net sales decreased from about 124.6 tons to about 88 tons, which had a moderately negative impact [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: As of January 9, the average import cost of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, with a week - on - week increase in the average CNF premium and the average crushing profit on the futures market, which had a neutral impact [2]. - **Weather Forecast in South American Soybean Producing Areas**: In the next two weeks (January 10 - 22), the precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas varied, and the temperature in the Argentine soybean - producing areas was first low and then returned to normal. Overall, the impact of weather issues in the producing areas was not significant, but continuous attention was needed [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the shipping and palm oil industries, focusing on market dynamics, supply chain challenges, and future projections for 2026. Shipping Industry Insights Market Performance - The shipping market in 2025 is expected to experience significant weakness, with freight rates declining compared to 2024. Despite a roundabout route via the Cape of Good Hope, the supply-demand fundamentals remain loose, leading to a soft market overall [2][4]. Key Influencing Factors - Major factors affecting the shipping market include the restructuring of three major alliances, the impact of tariff trade wars, and global economic pressures that lead shippers to prefer lower-cost transport services [3][9]. Alliance Adjustments - The MSC, Premier, and Ocean alliances dominate the Northwest European and Mediterranean routes. Adjustments in fleet deployment, such as MSC reallocating vessels to more profitable regions, have significantly impacted supply-side variables [5][6]. Future Capacity Projections - By 2026, the delivery of new 24,000 TEU Panama-type vessels is not expected to significantly increase capacity on key routes, as existing services already meet demand [6][14]. Strategies for Suez Canal Operations - Shipping companies are employing various strategies to adapt to the reopening of the Suez Canal, including extending routes and entering emerging markets to absorb excess capacity [7][8]. Demand Trends - The demand outlook for trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes is mixed, with a projected decline in U.S. imports due to internal economic pressures rather than trade disputes. Conversely, European demand for Chinese goods is expected to remain strong, leading to record export volumes [9][10][11]. Palm Oil Industry Insights Market Dynamics - The palm oil market is influenced by production expectations in Malaysia and Indonesia, with potential declines in output due to aging plantations and adverse weather conditions [18][22]. Price Projections - Price ranges for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in 2026 are projected to be between 8,000-10,500 CNY/ton for palm oil, 7,500-9,000 CNY/ton for soybean oil, and 8,000-10,300 CNY/ton for rapeseed oil. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended due to current market sentiment [35]. Supply Challenges - Malaysia's palm oil production faces challenges from aging trees and low replanting rates, with the actual replanting rate significantly below recommended levels. This is expected to hinder production growth in 2026 [20][22]. Global Biodiesel Market - The global biodiesel market has seen a decline in 2025, with U.S., Indonesia, and Brazil's policy changes being focal points. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. biodiesel policies is expected to impact market sentiment and pricing [25][26]. Additional Insights Economic Factors - The economic conditions in Europe and the U.S. are expected to influence global trade and shipping, with Europe still recovering from the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S. facing internal economic pressures affecting import levels [12][13]. Long-term Trends - The shipping industry is anticipated to remain stable with no significant increase in the number of routes, while the palm oil market may see a tightening supply situation due to various production challenges [14][24]. Regulatory Impacts - The UDR regulations in Europe will pose compliance challenges for South American exports, particularly for palm oil and soybeans, affecting trade dynamics [53][54]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the shipping and palm oil industries as they prepare for the upcoming year.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Wait for the inflection point confirmation and conduct range - bound operations for now [2][4] - Soybean oil: Lack of driving force from US soybeans, mainly in a volatile state [2][4] - Soybean meal: Weakly volatile, be cautious about the risks associated with the USDA report [2][11] - Soybean: The market is oscillating [2][11] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][14] - Sugar: Narrow - range fluctuations [2][18] - Cotton: Oscillating with a slight upward trend, pay attention to downstream demand [2][22] - Peanuts: Focus on the purchases by oil mills [2][27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,706 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.73%, and the night - session closing price was 8,698 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.09%. Soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,230 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.44%, and the night - session closing price was 8,026 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.48% [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian official said that a special task force has ordered dozens of palm oil and mining companies to pay a total fine of 38.62 trillion Indonesian rupiah (equivalent to $2.31 billion) for illegal operations in forest areas. The US government will provide $12 billion in assistance to American farmers. Private exporters reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. As of December 5, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 90.3% [4][5][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [10] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2601's closing price (day session) was 4,085 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 4,077 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.17%. DCE soybean meal 2605's closing price (day session) was 2,778 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.77% [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 8, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to uncertain Chinese demand and favorable South American weather. The USDA will release a supply - demand report, and traders are concerned about a possible downward adjustment of US soybean export forecasts. Brazil's crop outlook remains strong with expected widespread rainfall [11][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of - 1, and soybean has a trend intensity of 0 [13] 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,261 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.57%, and the night - session closing price was 2,242 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.84%. The closing price of C2603 was 2,232 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.59%, and the night - session closing price was 2,220 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54% [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, while Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices continued to rise, and North China's corn prices showed mixed trends [16] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [17] 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.82 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,420 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,337 yuan/ton [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of November, India's sugar production in the 2025/2026 season increased by 49.8% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20] 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,750 yuan/ton with no change, and the night - session closing price was 13,765 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.11%. The closing price of CY2603 was 19,980 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 19,970 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05% [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was dull, and high - basis trading was poor. Cotton yarn prices fluctuated slightly, and the full - cotton grey fabric market showed a differentiated situation. ICE cotton futures declined after an initial rise [23][24] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [26] 3.6 Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,068 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%, and the closing price of PK603 was 8,076 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05% [27] - **Macro and Industry News**: In Henan, peanut prices were stable with a slight upward trend; in Jilin, prices were stable with a slight upward trend; in Liaoning, prices were basically stable; in Shandong, prices were basically stable. Some oil mills started purchasing on December 8 [28] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Last week, the CBOT January soybean contract fell 32 to close at 1105.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.81%; the January soybean meal contract fell 8 to close at 3036 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.26%; the spot price of soybean meal in South China remained flat at 3000 yuan per ton; the January rapeseed meal contract fell 55 to close at 2397 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.24%; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangxi fell 70 to 2480 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.75% [2][5]. - There is a lack of news on China's purchase of US soybeans. The US claims that China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by the end of February, but the current progress is slow and it is doubtful whether this target can be achieved. The external market lacks support and oscillates downward. Domestic soybean meal is suppressed by high inventory, while the import cost is still in a loss, providing support at the cost end. The Dalian soybean meal futures generally oscillate [2][5]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics reported that the rapeseed production was 21.8 million tons, which is bearish. With abundant global supply, ICE rapeseed prices have fallen, and rapeseed meal is relatively weak. The current weather conditions in South America are generally favorable, and the crop outlook is positive. On Friday, private exporters reported the sale of 462,000 tons of soybeans to China. Attention should be paid to the progress of US soybean exports, and we are waiting for the release of the December USDA report. The domestic soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the import cost provides support. It is expected that the short - term oscillation of Dalian soybean meal futures will continue [2][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | December 5th | November 28th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybeans | 1105.25 | 1137.25 | -32.00 | -2.81% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 481.00 | 500.00 | -19.00 | -3.80% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 498.00 | 502.00 | -4.00 | -0.80% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 70.75 | 64.34 | 6.41 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3036.00 | 3044.00 | -8.00 | -0.26% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2397.00 | 2452.00 | -55.00 | -2.24% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 639.00 | 592.00 | 47.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3040.00 | 3020.00 | 20.00 | 0.66% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3000.00 | 3000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | -36.00 | -44.00 | 8.00 | | Yuan per ton | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week ending October 30, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 1.248 million tons, compared with 1.45 million tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 17.2 million tons, with a sales progress of 38.6%, compared with 55.5% in the same period last year. China started to purchase US soybeans this week, with a purchase volume of 232,000 tons [6]. - As of the week ending November 21, 2025, the gross profit of US soybean crushing (the price difference between soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) was 2.5 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.81 US dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 324 US dollars per short ton, compared with 338 US dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 51.99 cents per pound, compared with 51.58 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.16 US dollars per bushel, compared with 11.15 US dollars per bushel in the previous week [6]. - According to Conab, as of the week ending November 29, 2025, the planting rate of soybeans in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 86%, compared with 78% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 84.4%. According to AgRural, as of the week ending November 27, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil for the 2025/26 season had reached the expected 89%, compared with 81% in the previous week and 91% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the soybean export volume in December is expected to be 2.81 million tons, compared with 1.47 million tons in the same period last year [7]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week ending November 26, 2025, the sowing progress of soybeans in Argentina was 44.7%, compared with 36% in the previous week and 53.8% in the same period last year [7]. - The weather forecast for South American production areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the Brazilian soybean production area is expected to be 150 mm, higher than the normal level, and the overall weather conditions are good. The precipitation in Argentina will be relatively dry in the next two weeks, which is conducive to sowing. Continuous attention should be paid to the weather changes in this area [7]. - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, an increase of 189,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.3661 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, an increase of 51,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 368,700 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 3.881 million tons, a decrease of 714,100 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 107,000 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.576 million tons, an increase of 151,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.0825 million tons from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending December 5, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 140,280 tons, including 82,980 tons of spot trading and 57,300 tons of forward trading. The daily average total trading volume in the previous week was 124,340 tons; the daily average pick - up volume of soybean meal was 184,300 tons, compared with 188,000 tons in the previous week; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.0558 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons in the previous week; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 8.49 days, compared with 8.17 days in the previous week [8]. Industry News - StoneX estimated that the soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will be 177.2 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from its November forecast. However, if this forecast comes true, it will still be a record - high soybean output in Brazil. StoneX said that although the planting area has slightly expanded, this adjustment reflects the decline in the soybean production potential in the main producing states of Mato Grosso and Goias in Brazil [10]. - Patria Agronegocios estimated that the soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will reach 171.89 million tons, a 0.2% increase from the mid - November forecast. The expected output will increase by 1.4% compared with the 2024/25 season. Patria reported that the soybean sowing area in Brazil is expected to reach 48.58 million hectares (120 million acres), a 0.9% increase from the previous forecast and higher than the 47.69 million hectares in the previous year [10]. - Imea estimated that the soybean production in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season will be 47.18 million tons, remaining stable compared with the November report forecast. The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from November 24th to November 28th was 492.95 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 451.85 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous week. During the same week, the price of soybean meal in the state was 1,615.80 Brazilian reals per ton, and the price of soybean oil was 6,290.33 Brazilian reals per ton [11]. - According to the European Commission, as of November 30, the palm oil import volume of the EU in the 2025/26 season was 1.17 million tons, compared with 1.42 million tons last year. The soybean import volume was 4.97 million tons, compared with 5.75 million tons last year. The soybean meal import volume was 7.46 million tons, compared with 8.33 million tons last year. The rapeseed import volume was 1.58 million tons, compared with 2.61 million tons last year [11]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics will release the yield forecast report of field crops for the 2025/26 market season based on farmer surveys on December 4. Before that, the average forecast of interviewed analysts was that the rapeseed production in Canada for the 2025/26 season would be 21.25 million tons, higher than the 20.03 million tons announced by the Bureau in September [11]. - The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) raised the forecast of Australia's rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season by 800,000 tons to 7.2 million tons, higher than the 6.4 million tons in the previous year and 50% higher than the ten - year average [12]. - According to foreign media reports, on December 3, an institution released a commodity research report showing that the soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range between 45.8 million and 48.1 million tons. However, the sowing at the beginning of the season has been continuously delayed, the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt has declined, and the long - term weather outlook is bleak, which deserves attention [12]. - The main field crop yield report released by the Canadian Bureau of Statistics showed that the rapeseed yield per unit area reached a record high. Although the harvested area of rapeseed reported by farmers in 2025 decreased, the timely precipitation in the later season in western Canada helped push the rapeseed yield per unit area in the three prairie provinces to or close to the historical highest level, thus increasing the national yield per unit area to 44.7 bushels per acre. The national rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons, exceeding the previous production record set in 2017 [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the soybean meal main contract, the spot price of soybean meal in different regions, the spread between January and May contracts of soybean meal, the net position of managed funds in CBOT, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the crushing profit of US oil mills, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unfulfilled contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [13][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the meal futures market is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of China-US negotiations. The US government subsidizes farmers with tariff revenues, but the market expects the price to remain in a narrow range at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders are placed. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report are also points of concern. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is limited by high inventories in the near term, and the market is expected to rebound with reduced sensitivity and amplitude. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly influenced by the results of China-Canada negotiations and the supply recovery expectations and soybean meal prices [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - The near - month supply is under pressure as the port and oil mill inventories of imported soybeans in China are high, the oil mill crushing volume is rising, and the soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The rapeseed meal follows the decline of soybean meal but is slightly stronger. The rising warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal also dominates the near - month supply pressure narrative on the market [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.9%. The forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.5% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventories, to prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - Feed mills with low procurement inventories can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, up 10 (0.34%); soybean meal 05 is 2746, down 8 (-0.29%); soybean meal 09 is 2858, down 10 (-0.35%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2392, up 1 (0.04%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2315, down 13 (-0.56%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2403, down 11 (-0.46%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1007, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1241, unchanged (0%) [7]. 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 168, unchanged; RM01 - 05 is 63, down 38; M05 - 09 is -114, down 6; RM05 - 09 is -86, down 5; M09 - 01 is -54, up 22; RM09 - 01 is 23, up 43. The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2990, unchanged, and the basis is 68, up 60. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2520, down 30, and the basis is 129, up 14. The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 470, up 60, and the futures spread is 531, unchanged [9]. 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4373.7225 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.0402 weekly. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3897.84 yuan/ton, down 2.21 daily and 22.69 weekly. The profit of US Gulf soybean imports (23%) is -544.0825 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 58.5843 weekly. The profit of Brazilian soybean imports is 89.1616 yuan/ton, up 54.7861 daily and 0.8951 weekly. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 972 yuan/ton, up 29 daily and 9 weekly, and the spot profit is 1205 yuan/ton, up 40 daily and 45 weekly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, the night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal weakened. The USDA quarterly inventory report had a neutral impact on the market. There is a high expectation of a reduction in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report due to poor weather since late August. However, the postponement of the October USDA report restrains market trading, and domestic supply sufficiency suppresses the market, so it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will continue to fluctuate within a range [2] - For oils, the night - session of oils was weak. The MPOB report showed that the inventory accumulation was higher than expected, which may put short - term pressure on the oil market. But in the long - term, as Southeast Asian production areas enter the production - reduction season and there is support from international biodiesel for consumption demand, the price center of oils is expected to move up [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8100, 9126, 9921, 2930, 2457, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 14, 72, - 75, 2, - 35, and 26, and the percentage changes were 0.17%, 0.80%, - 3.15%, 0.07%, - 1.40%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09, M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 are - 320, - 538, - 380, - 808, 1761, 953, - 74, 3, 458, 1.19, 2.72, 4924 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4299 (ringgit/ton), 1009 (cents/bushel), 50 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were - 84, - 4, - 0, - 1, and the percentage changes were - 1.92%, - 0.40%, - 0.14%, - 0.40% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. are 8310, 8430, 9130 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of various products are provided, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 210, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 560 [1] Import and Profit - The current values of import profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 417, - 28 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 25534, 1500, 8057, 39055, 9245, 0 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] Industry Information - As of October 5, soybean harvesting was 39% complete, higher than the same period in previous years. Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US 2025/26 soybeans in the week ending October 2 to be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons [2] - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 495,415 tons, a 19.37% increase compared to the same period last month [2]

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, with soybean meal futures showing a decline of approximately 3.60% [1] - Current soybean supply in China is ample due to high import volumes and oil mills maintaining high operating levels, leading to rising soybean meal inventories [1] - The USDA report has adjusted the U.S. soybean planting area upwards to 81.1 million acres while lowering the yield estimate to 53.5 bushels per acre, impacting market expectations [2] Group 2 - The market sentiment is cautious due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential volatility expected from social media statements by U.S. officials [1] - Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and meal is expected to exert short-term pressure on the soybean complex [2] - The soybean harvest in the U.S. is underway, which is anticipated to increase supply pressure in the market [2]