Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the meal futures market is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of China-US negotiations. The US government subsidizes farmers with tariff revenues, but the market expects the price to remain in a narrow range at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders are placed. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report are also points of concern. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is limited by high inventories in the near term, and the market is expected to rebound with reduced sensitivity and amplitude. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly influenced by the results of China-Canada negotiations and the supply recovery expectations and soybean meal prices [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - The near - month supply is under pressure as the port and oil mill inventories of imported soybeans in China are high, the oil mill crushing volume is rising, and the soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The rapeseed meal follows the decline of soybean meal but is slightly stronger. The rising warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal also dominates the near - month supply pressure narrative on the market [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.9%. The forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.5% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventories, to prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - Feed mills with low procurement inventories can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, up 10 (0.34%); soybean meal 05 is 2746, down 8 (-0.29%); soybean meal 09 is 2858, down 10 (-0.35%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2392, up 1 (0.04%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2315, down 13 (-0.56%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2403, down 11 (-0.46%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1007, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1241, unchanged (0%) [7]. 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 168, unchanged; RM01 - 05 is 63, down 38; M05 - 09 is -114, down 6; RM05 - 09 is -86, down 5; M09 - 01 is -54, up 22; RM09 - 01 is 23, up 43. The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2990, unchanged, and the basis is 68, up 60. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2520, down 30, and the basis is 129, up 14. The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 470, up 60, and the futures spread is 531, unchanged [9]. 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4373.7225 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.0402 weekly. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3897.84 yuan/ton, down 2.21 daily and 22.69 weekly. The profit of US Gulf soybean imports (23%) is -544.0825 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 58.5843 weekly. The profit of Brazilian soybean imports is 89.1616 yuan/ton, up 54.7861 daily and 0.8951 weekly. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 972 yuan/ton, up 29 daily and 9 weekly, and the spot profit is 1205 yuan/ton, up 40 daily and 45 weekly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, the night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal weakened. The USDA quarterly inventory report had a neutral impact on the market. There is a high expectation of a reduction in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report due to poor weather since late August. However, the postponement of the October USDA report restrains market trading, and domestic supply sufficiency suppresses the market, so it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will continue to fluctuate within a range [2] - For oils, the night - session of oils was weak. The MPOB report showed that the inventory accumulation was higher than expected, which may put short - term pressure on the oil market. But in the long - term, as Southeast Asian production areas enter the production - reduction season and there is support from international biodiesel for consumption demand, the price center of oils is expected to move up [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8100, 9126, 9921, 2930, 2457, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 14, 72, - 75, 2, - 35, and 26, and the percentage changes were 0.17%, 0.80%, - 3.15%, 0.07%, - 1.40%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09, M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 are - 320, - 538, - 380, - 808, 1761, 953, - 74, 3, 458, 1.19, 2.72, 4924 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4299 (ringgit/ton), 1009 (cents/bushel), 50 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were - 84, - 4, - 0, - 1, and the percentage changes were - 1.92%, - 0.40%, - 0.14%, - 0.40% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. are 8310, 8430, 9130 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of various products are provided, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 210, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 560 [1] Import and Profit - The current values of import profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 417, - 28 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 25534, 1500, 8057, 39055, 9245, 0 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1] Industry Information - As of October 5, soybean harvesting was 39% complete, higher than the same period in previous years. Analysts expect the net export sales volume of US 2025/26 soybeans in the week ending October 2 to be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons [2] - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 495,415 tons, a 19.37% increase compared to the same period last month [2]

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, with soybean meal futures showing a decline of approximately 3.60% [1] - Current soybean supply in China is ample due to high import volumes and oil mills maintaining high operating levels, leading to rising soybean meal inventories [1] - The USDA report has adjusted the U.S. soybean planting area upwards to 81.1 million acres while lowering the yield estimate to 53.5 bushels per acre, impacting market expectations [2] Group 2 - The market sentiment is cautious due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential volatility expected from social media statements by U.S. officials [1] - Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and meal is expected to exert short-term pressure on the soybean complex [2] - The soybean harvest in the U.S. is underway, which is anticipated to increase supply pressure in the market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The September USDA report had a neutral - weak impact on soybeans, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory, and a decrease in global production. Attention should be paid to the US soybean harvest progress [2]. - Uncertainty in Sino - US tariffs affects domestic soybean procurement in November, and future import changes need to be monitored. The market has been volatile due to Sino - US uncertainties [6]. - The domestic supply - demand situation for beans and rapeseed has shown little change. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in imports, but the situation remains uncertain. Low domestic rapeseed inventory may slow down rapeseed crushing and affect the supply of rapeseed meal and oil [6]. - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation phase. The demand is in the off - season, but the National Day peak season may boost demand. There is an overall slightly surplus situation with high inventory pressure and some support from peak - season demand [37]. - The MPOB report on palm oil showed that inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the September report was moderately positive. Attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil market and biodiesel. Domestic palm oil inventory accumulation has slowed, reducing supply - demand pressure [38]. - The domestic rapeseed oil market lacks new themes and is in a continuous inventory reduction cycle. Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply, and changes in imports from Russia should be monitored. Terminal purchasing willingness is low, and the market is highly volatile at high levels [38]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal - The September USDA report was neutral - weak, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production. Monitor the US soybean harvest progress [2]. - Uncertain Sino - US tariffs have led to inactive domestic soybean procurement in November. Pay attention to import changes and the progress of Sino - US tariffs [6]. - Both the spot and futures markets have been oscillating recently [6]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - The domestic supply - demand situation has changed little. Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in imports, but the outcome is uncertain. Monitor domestic rapeseed import progress [6]. - Low domestic rapeseed inventory may slow down rapeseed crushing, affecting the supply of rapeseed meal and oil. The spot market has remained stable, and the domestic market has shown a slightly stronger oscillating trend recently [6]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in the inventory accumulation phase [37]. - Demand is in the off - season, but the National Day peak season may boost demand. There is an overall slightly surplus situation with high inventory pressure and some support from peak - season demand [37]. 3.4 Palm Oil - The MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the September report was moderately positive [38]. - Pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and biodiesel. Domestic palm oil inventory accumulation has slowed, reducing supply - demand pressure. Import costs have risen, but the domestic basis is weak [38]. 3.5 Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil market lacks new themes and is in a continuous inventory reduction cycle [38]. - Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply, and changes in imports from Russia should be monitored. Terminal purchasing willingness is low, and the market is highly volatile at high levels [38].

Report Overview - **Report Date**: September 17, 2025 [2] - **Industry**: Soybean Meal [1] - **Research Team**: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Report Key Points 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts (2601, 2509, 2511), prices declined with varying degrees of decrease. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 3041 yuan, down 10 yuan or 0.33% [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The USDA's September monthly supply - demand report had a slight negative impact, but the market reaction was limited. The market is mainly focused on the China - US economic and trade consultations in Spain this week, which may involve US soybean import and export issues, providing some support to the external market [6]. - **Domestic Supply**: As the US soybean harvest approaches, China has not started purchasing US soybeans. With a 23% tariff on US soybean imports unchanged, Brazil will be the main source of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, supplemented by some from Argentina. There may be a small import gap, which could be filled by state - reserve auctions. The China - US economic and trade consultations may change this supply logic [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the market is likely to fluctuate at a low level due to heavy sentiment of long - position holders leaving the market. If no new news comes out of the consultations this week, futures may rebound, but the pressure on spot supply will persist in the short and medium term. In the long term, the import cost is expected to rise [6]. 2. Industry News - **USDA Forecasts**: The USDA's September forecast for the 2025/2026 US soybean production was 4.301 billion bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.271 billion bushels. The ending inventory was expected to be 300 million bushels, up from the previous 290 million bushels [6][9]. - **USDA Crop Reports**: As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the same as expected. The harvest rate was 5%, and the defoliation rate was 41% [9]. - **USDA Export Inspection Reports**: As of the week ending September 11, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 804,352 tons, higher than the expected 200,000 - 730,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons [10]. 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes multiple graphs such as the spread between different soybean meal contracts (1 - 5, 5 - 9), the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real [13][15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 18.5 to close at 1045.25 cents per bushel, a 1.80% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract rose 12 to close at 3079 yuan per ton, a 0.39% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to 2980 yuan per ton, a 0.68% increase; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 19 to 2531 yuan per ton, a 0.75% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 10 to 2600 yuan per ton, a 0.39% increase [4][7]. - US soybeans fluctuated and closed higher. The drought - affected area in the producing areas expanded, the crop good - to - excellent rate continued to decline, and the export sales progress was generally slow. The report slightly lowered the yield per unit and export demand, which was in line with market expectations. Soybean meal fluctuated in a narrow range. The domestic soybean arrival volume was sufficient, the operating rate was at a high level, soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory, the basis was weak, and at the same time, Brazil's export supply capacity weakened, the premium was strong, and the import cost was supported [4][7]. - The September USDA report was generally in line with expectations. The yield per unit was slightly lowered to 53.5 bushels per acre, the export demand was lowered to 1.685 billion bushels, and the inventory increased slightly to 300 million bushels, with a slightly bearish impact. The drought - affected area in the producing areas expanded, and the soil moisture in the eastern region continued to decline. There was still an expectation of a yield per unit reduction in the next report. The oil mills' operating rate remained high, soybean meal inventory increased, and the basis was under pressure. Feed enterprises' stocking demand before the double festivals would increase, and the inventory days increased. The procurement progress for the November - January shipping schedule was slow, and the premium of Brazil's old - crop soybeans was strong, providing support for the import cost. It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will continue to fluctuate [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 9/12 | 9/5 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1045.25 | 1026.75 | 18.50 | 1.80% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 490.00 | 489.00 | 1.00 | 0.20% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 466.00 | 467.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.21% | US dollars per ton | | Brazil Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 83.52 | - 50.23 | - 33.29 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3079.00 | 3067.00 | 12.00 | 0.39% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2531.00 | 2550.00 | - 19.00 | - 0.75% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 548.00 | 517.00 | 31.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3000.00 | 3000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2980.00 | 2960.00 | 20.00 | 0.68% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 99.00 | - 107.00 | 8.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - **USDA Report**: The September USDA report was neutral. The planting area was slightly increased by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit was slightly reduced to 53.5 bushels per acre, the crushing demand was increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the export demand was reduced by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was 300 million bushels [8]. - **US Crop Growth**: As of the week of September 7, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63%, 65% in the previous week, and 65% in the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 97%, 94% in the previous week, and 97% in the same period last year and the five - year average. The leaf - falling rate was 21%, 11% in the previous week, 23% in the same period last year, and 22% in the five - year average. As of the week of September 9, about 22% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, 16% in the previous week, and 26% in the same period last year [9]. - **US Soybean Export**: As of the week of September 4, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 541,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 9.354 million tons, compared with 14.25 million tons in the same period last year. China had not purchased new - crop US soybeans [9]. - **US Soybean Crushing**: As of the week of September 5, 2025, the gross crushing profit of US soybeans was 3.08 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.71 US dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 295.69 US dollars per short ton, compared with 296.88 US dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 52.73 cents per pound, compared with 53.25 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.01 US dollars per bushel, compared with 10.47 US dollars per bushel in the previous week [9]. - **NOPA Forecast**: The NOPA monthly report forecast showed that member enterprises were expected to crush 182.857 million bushels of soybeans in August. If the forecast was accurate, the August crushing volume would decrease by 6.6% compared with 195.699 million bushels in July but increase by 15.7% compared with 158.008 million bushels in August 2024 [10]. - **Brazilian Situation**: Brazilian farmers had started planting 2025/26 season soybeans, with a sowing rate of 0.02% as of last Thursday. Brazil's soybean export volume in September was expected to rise to 7.43 million tons, compared with an expected 6.75 million tons in the previous week [10]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of the week of September 5, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.317 million tons, an increase of 348,500 tons from the previous week and 425,200 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 1.1362 million tons, an increase of 57,400 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 212,600 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 6.6278 million tons, an increase of 2.2196 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 8,200 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.661 million tons, an increase of 605,000 tons from the previous week and 1.1845 million tons from the same period last year [10]. - **Domestic Trading and Consumption**: As of the week of September 12, 2025, the national daily average trading volume of soybean meal was 176,160 tons, including 78,360 tons of spot trading and 97,800 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 101,900 tons in the previous week; the daily average pickup volume of soybean meal was 197,560 tons, compared with 191,540 tons in the previous week; the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3604 million tons, compared with 2.3039 million tons in the previous week; the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 9.22 days, compared with 8.8 days in the previous week [11]. Industry News - **Brazil**: The Safras & Mercado institution predicted that Brazil's total soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 180.92 million tons, a 5.3% increase from 171.84 million tons last year. The new - season soybean planting area was expected to be about 48.21 million hectares, a 1.2% increase from the previous season, and the average yield per unit was expected to increase from 3,625 kg per hectare to 3,771 kg per hectare. Brazil's soybean export volume in 2026 was expected to reach 108 million tons, the same as the July forecast, a 3% increase from 105 million tons in 2025. The 2026 soybean crushing volume forecast was raised from 59 million tons to 59.5 million tons, and the 2025 crushing volume forecast was raised from 57 million tons to 58 million tons. The Secex institution reported that Brazil exported 1,005,957.55 tons of soybeans in the first week of September, with a daily average export volume of 201,191.51 tons, a 31% decrease from the daily average export volume of 290,783.94 tons in September last year. CONAB estimated that Brazil's soybean output in the 2024/25 season would reach 171.4723 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1889 million tons (13.3%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.8153 million tons (1.1%); the sowing area would reach 47.3506 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.2547 million hectares (2.7%) and a month - on - month decrease of 286,600 hectares (0.6%). The IBGE estimated that Brazil's soybean planting area in 2025 would be 47.666743 million hectares, a 3.5% increase from the previous month's forecast and a 0.2% increase from last year; the soybean output was estimated to be 165.892097 million tons, a 0.2% increase from the previous month's forecast and a 14.5% increase from last year [12][14]. - **Ukraine**: Due to customs document confusion after a 10% tariff was imposed on rapeseed and soybean exports, Ukraine's rapeseed exports might be suspended for at least a week. The agricultural lobbying group UCAB asked farmers not to export rapeseed until the problem was completely resolved [13]. - **Canada**: As of July 31, 2025, Canada's total rapeseed inventory decreased by 50.5% year - on - year to 1.5973 million tons, the commercial inventory decreased by 37.9% to 1.2192 million tons, and the farm inventory decreased by 70.1% to 378,100 tons. With the continued expansion of the processing industry, the industrial consumption mainly for crushing increased by 3.4% to a record 11.412 million tons. Due to strong international demand, rapeseed exports increased by 39.7% to 9.3308 million tons as of July 31 [13]. - **Argentina**: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina predicted that the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season would decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares compared with last year because farmers chose to plant other crops such as corn and sunflowers. Soybean sowing was expected to start at the end of September or early October. As of the week of September 3, Argentine farmers sold 605,000 tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 31.2916 million tons. As of September 3, the cumulative export sales registration volume of 2024/25 season soybeans was 8.475 million tons, and that of 2025/26 season soybeans was 0 tons [13][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International aspects: Optimistic expectations for China-US trade negotiations have cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the export demand for US soybeans is under pressure. The August USDA report is bullish, with the planting area of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, the yield per acre estimated at 53.6 bushels, and the ending inventory dropping to 290 million bushels. Recent low precipitation in the production areas has led to a significant decline in the good and excellent rate. Attention should be paid to the yield adjustment in the September report. The Ministry of Commerce has issued an anti-dumping investigation ruling on imported Canadian rapeseed, with a deposit ratio of 75.8% and an extended investigation period, strengthening the expectation of tightened rapeseed imports. The meteorological organization has reported that the La Nina phenomenon may return in September, and the soybean sowing work in South America is about to begin. Track the changes in weather [3][71]. - Domestic aspects: In terms of the ship - booking progress, the booking progress for November is 14%, 1.5% for December, and sporadic for January. The overall progress is slow. Market rumors suggest that 3 - 6 million tons of imported reserve soybeans will be released in November to ease the tight supply situation. The purchase of Argentine soybean meal is limited and there are quality problems. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The arrival of soybeans from August to September is sufficient, the crushing operation rate is high, and the supply of soybean meal is still available. Feed enterprises purchase on a spot - as - needed basis, and the purchase of basis positions has increased under the expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The提货 demand is good, and there is support on the demand side [3][71]. - Recently, the dry conditions in the production areas have led to a significant decline in the good and excellent rate of US soybeans, and there is a large variable in the final yield. Last year, due to continuous low precipitation in the production areas from August to September, the yield continued to decline. The sowing season in South America has begun, and attention should be paid to the impact of the return of La Nina. The Brazilian premium is running strongly, providing support for import costs. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the fourth quarter. The short - term arrival of Brazilian soybeans is still dragging down the upward rhythm. It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will mainly fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise [3][72]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since August, soybean meal has first risen and then fallen, showing a range - bound operation. At the end of August, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 19 to close at 3055 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. The spot price of soybean meal in South China rose 70 to close at 2940 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.44%. The main contract of CBOT US soybeans rose 62.75 to close at 1053 cents/bushel, an increase of 6.34%. In early August, the price steadily increased, mainly supported by the extension of the China - US tariff agreement as scheduled and the strengthening of the expectation of tight supply in the distant future. In the middle of August, it rose sharply and then fluctuated, mainly driven by the unexpectedly bullish USDA report. In late August, the price of soybean meal continued to decline and adjust, mainly due to the news of the release of imported reserve soybeans in November and the expectation of a positive outcome in the China - US trade negotiation [9]. 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the August USDA report, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.29 million tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 367.7 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous month's estimate. The ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 124.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.17 million tons from the previous month's estimate, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 29.38% [12]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The August USDA report is bullish. In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans increased by 10 million bushels to 1.875 billion bushels, and the crushing demand increased by 10 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting area of US soybeans decreased by 2.5 million acres, mainly due to the increase in the behavior of US farmers switching to corn planting under the influence of China - US tariff frictions. The yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels/acre to 53.6 bushels/acre, but the overall production estimate decreased to 4.292 billion bushels. As of now, due to the high tariffs on US soybean imports, China has not made any purchases, and the export demand for US soybeans has decreased by 40 million bushels to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending inventory has dropped to 290 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.66%, indicating an expectation of tightening supply [15]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of the week of August 24, 2025, the good and excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. As of the week of August 26, about 11% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas in the next 15 days will be 30 - 35mm, lower than the average level. The eastern production areas are relatively dry. The 2025 Pro Farmer inspection report shows that the development of this year's soybean crops is better than that of the same period last year. The final yield is estimated to be 53 bushels/acre, and considering the dry weather in August, the estimated yield may be slightly adjusted downward [21][22]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - The data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) shows that the US soybean crushing volume in July was 195.699 million bushels, higher than the market average expectation of 191.59 million bushels. The cumulative crushing volume from September 2024 to July 2025 was 2.114335 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.70%. As of the week of August 22, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.99 dollars/bushel [24]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week of August 21, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market season were - 189,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 50.87 million tons. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week were 1.373 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 7.23 million tons. China has not purchased new - season US soybeans [27]. 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - According to the USDA report, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet has basically not been adjusted. In the 2025/2026 season, the Brazilian soybean production remains at 175 million tons, the export demand is 112 million tons, the crushing demand is 58 million tons, the ending inventory is 36.96 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.21%. In July 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume was 12.26 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) data shows that the estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in August is 8.94 million tons [31][39]. 2.7 Argentine Soybean Situation - The August USDA report shows that in the 2024/2025 season, the Argentine soybean production increased by 1 million tons to 50.9 million tons, the import volume increased by 300,000 tons to 6.8 million tons, the crushing demand increased by 500,000 tons to 42.6 million tons, and the ending inventory was 24.95 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, the Argentine soybean production is expected to be 48.5 million tons, the export demand increased by 800,000 tons to 5.8 million tons, the crushing demand remains at 43 million tons, and the ending inventory is 24.65 million tons [41]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Situations - According to customs data, in July 2025, China's soybean import volume was 11.67 million tons. In terms of the ship - booking rhythm, as of August 19, the purchase progress for November - January is relatively slow. The estimated arrival volume of soybeans in August - September is about 10 million tons each month [47]. 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.8253 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, and the unexecuted contract was 4.9174 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 8.898 million tons. As of the week of August 29, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 149,540 tons, the daily average 提货 volume was 193,580 tons, the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, and the feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days were 8.87 days [51]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises is 33.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in the compound feed and concentrated feed is 14.1% [63]. 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - International aspects: Optimistic expectations for China - US trade negotiations have cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the export demand for US soybeans is under pressure. Pay attention to the yield adjustment in the September USDA report, the tightening of rapeseed imports, and the impact of the possible return of La Nina [71]. - Domestic aspects: The ship - booking progress is slow, and the release of imported reserve soybeans in November may ease the tight supply situation. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The current supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the demand side has support [71]. - It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will mainly fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 5.25 to close at 1053 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.5%; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 33 to close at 3055 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.07%; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 10 to close at 2940 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.34%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 30 to close at 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.18%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 10 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.39% [4]. - U.S. soybeans oscillated. The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was higher than expected; the re - allocation of the U.S. biodiesel exemption volume to large refineries might face significant resistance, and U.S. soybean oil prices declined during the week; new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated and declined during the week. The oil mill operating rate was at a high level, and soybean meal inventory was expected to increase. The Chinese trade delegation went to the U.S. for negotiations. Trump previously posted that he hoped China would purchase U.S. soybeans. There were positive expectations for the conclusion of an agricultural product agreement in this negotiation. Market sentiment cooled, and long - position funds reduced their positions to avoid risks [4][7]. - Precipitation in U.S. soybean production areas will be below the average in the next two weeks, which may be unfavorable for the growth and development during the pod - setting period. There is a high possibility that the high - yield per - unit estimate will be revised down. Attention should be paid to the data adjustment in the September USDA report. As the positive sentiment expectation of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations is gradually priced in, the decline of domestic soybean meal futures slows down. Attention should be paid to whether an agricultural product agreement is reached and announced. In terms of ship - booking, China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans yet, and the purchase progress for the November - January shipping period is slow compared with the same period. The release of reserve soybeans has alleviated the tight supply expectation to some extent, but the tight supply expectation remains unchanged without effective replenishment of distant - end soybean purchases. In the short term, domestic soybean meal futures may oscillate within a range [4][7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract dropped 5.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.5%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 6 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.22%; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased by 3 dollars per ton, an increase of 0.64%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit increased by 41.16 yuan per ton; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 33 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.07%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 30 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.18%; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased by 3 yuan per ton; the East China soybean meal spot price remained unchanged; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 10 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.34%; the South China spot - futures price difference increased by 23 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean: The good - to - excellent rate was higher than expected, but dry conditions in the production areas since mid - August may lead to a downward revision of the high - yield per - unit estimate in the September USDA report. The re - allocation of the U.S. biodiesel exemption volume to large refineries faces resistance, and new - crop export sales exceeded expectations but the overall sales progress is slow [4][7]. - Domestic soybean meal: The oil mill operating rate is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory is expected to increase. The Sino - U.S. trade negotiation has positive expectations for the agricultural product agreement, which cools the market sentiment and causes long - position funds to reduce their positions [4][7]. - Supply and demand: China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans, and the purchase progress for the November - January shipping period is slow. The release of reserve soybeans alleviates the tight supply expectation, but the tight supply expectation remains without effective replenishment of distant - end soybean purchases [4][7][11]. Industry News - Brazil: In August, the daily average soybean export volume increased by 24% compared with the same period last year; a federal judge approved a ban to temporarily suspend the "Amazon soybean ban" plan; farmers in Paraná state are preparing for the 2025/26 sowing, but the planting area may decline [12][14][16]. - Canada: As of August 17, the weekly rapeseed export volume decreased by 64.34%; from August 1 to 17, the rapeseed export volume decreased by 46.16% compared with the same period last year; in July, the rapeseed crushing volume increased by 13.13% month - on - month; the Canadian government expects the 2025 rapeseed output to increase by 3.6% [12][13][16]. - EU: As of August 24, the 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, and rapeseed import volumes decreased compared with the same period last year [14]. - Argentina: As of August 20, the cumulative sales volume of 2024/25 soybeans reached 2989.56 million tons [16].

Report Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is oscillating and strengthening [3] Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Due to the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts and the positive USDA report, the futures market oscillated and rebounded, and the 09 contract successfully reduced its positions. Next week, the market will mainly show an oscillating or rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the results of the meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15th and its impact on the international situation. There are no other major domestic or international macro - events. The CF2509 contract should be watched in the range of [13560 - 13930], and the CF2601 contract in the range of [13920 - 14300] [5] - Medium - term: The long and short positions of the 09 futures contract were closed quickly and are almost stable. The probability of a US rate cut in September has risen significantly to over 90%. With the upcoming new cotton listing, the psychological expectation of ginneries for machine - picked cotton purchase is 6 - 6.3 yuan/ton. The pre - sale volume of new cotton has increased significantly compared with last year, about 1.5 million tons, which supports the price of newly - listed seed cotton, and the initial price is slightly higher. Additionally, with the approaching "Golden September and Silver October", there is a possibility of support or rebound in futures prices [5] - Long - term: Currently, the purchase price of hand - picked cotton in Kashgar is 7 - 7.3 yuan/ton, and the pre - sale price of cottonseed is 2.26 - 2.4 yuan/kg. The psychological expectation of ginneries for machine - picked cotton purchase is 6 - 6.3 yuan/ton, and they are cautious about prices higher than this. Comparing with the current price of the 2601 contract at 14100 - 14200 yuan/ton, farmers can make a profit. This year, the yield per unit has increased. For farmers who lease land, they can break even by selling at 6.66 yuan/ton (including the target subsidy, and it is expected that this year's subsidy will decrease to 0.6 - 0.7 yuan/kg). So, a seed cotton delivery price of 6 yuan/kg can ensure break - even. Also, the pre - sale volume of new cotton has increased significantly compared with last year, about 1.5 million tons, which supports the price of newly - listed seed cotton, and the initial price is slightly higher. During this period, the market is expected to oscillate or may have a rebound opportunity, with support at 13600 - 13700 and resistance at 14300 - 14600. After October, the price is expected to decline, and next year it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [5] Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - term: The futures market will oscillate or rebound next week. Pay attention to the meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15th. The CF2509 contract should be watched in the [13560 - 13930] range, and the CF2601 contract in the [13920 - 14300] range [5] - Medium - term: The 09 contract is almost stable. The probability of a US rate cut in September is over 90%. New cotton pre - sale volume has increased, and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" may support futures prices [5] - Long - term: Current purchase prices of different types of cotton are given. New cotton pre - sale volume has increased. The market may oscillate or rebound, with support and resistance levels provided. After October, the price may decline, and next year it may oscillate and strengthen [5] 02 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and rebounded. The cotton yarn market's trading improved with the gradual recovery of downstream demand. Spinning mills' quotes were mainly stable, with some local preferential sales. Some traders' low - price sales decreased slightly. Air - jet spun and regular varieties were mainly for rigid demand. In terms of profit, as cotton prices stabilized, profit performance gradually became stable. Currently, inland spinning mills' C32S cash - flow loss is about 500 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang spinning mills still have a small profit. Overall, enterprises still face challenges of compressed processing profit and inventory pressure. The short - term market may continue to oscillate, following the cotton market but under greater pressure [7] 03 - Market Review - Cotton market: This week, the cotton market oscillated and strengthened, and the spot market remained strong. The main futures contract oscillated and adjusted. Although the overall commodity market was optimistic, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was still poor, and cotton prices were relatively stable [11] - Cotton yarn market: This week, the cotton yarn spot market remained stable, and the futures market oscillated and strengthened. The downstream still faced insufficient demand and production reduction. Enterprises' profit pressure was relatively large [11] 04 - International Macro - Multiple important economic data of the US and the Eurozone from August 1st to 20th, 2025 are presented, including unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, trade balance, CPI, PPI, GDP, etc. [13] 05 - Domestic Macro - Multiple important economic data of China from August 7th to 20th, 2025 are presented, including foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, fixed - asset investment, retail sales, and unemployment rate [15] 06 - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's August global cotton supply - demand forecast report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and import - export trade volume were all adjusted down month - on - month, and the ending inventory decreased month - on - month. In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production was expected to be adjusted down, consumption to be increased, and exports to be decreased. With the reduction of the beginning inventory, the ending inventory in the 2024/25 season decreased again [16] 07 - Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - 2024/25 season: The beginning inventory was 6.81 million tons, the national production was 6.85 million tons, and the annual import volume was adjusted down to 1.03 million tons. The monthly cotton consumption decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the annual cotton consumption was expected to be increased by 50,000 tons to 8.05 million tons. The total demand increased by 50,000 tons to 8.45 million tons, and the ending inventory was adjusted down by 120,000 tons to 6.24 million tons [18][22] - 2025/26 season: The beginning inventory was adjusted down by 120,000 tons to 6.24 million tons. Xinjiang's production increased by 120,000 tons to 6.59 million tons, and inland production decreased by 3,000 tons to about 310,000 tons. The national total production increased by about 120,000 tons to 6.9 million tons. The annual import volume was expected to be adjusted down by 100,000 tons to 1.4 million tons. The annual cotton consumption was expected to remain at 7.9 million tons, other consumption and exports remained at 380,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively, and the total demand remained stable at 8.3 million tons. The ending inventory was adjusted down by 100,000 tons to 6.24 million tons [19][22] 08 - US Cotton Exports - As of August 7, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - signed 730,000 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 27.95% of the annual expected export volume, and had cumulatively shipped 35,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 4.80%. Among them, upland cotton signing volume was 709,000 tons, shipping 32,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 4.56%; Pima cotton signing volume was 21,000 tons, shipping 3,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 12.89%. China had cumulatively signed 3,000 tons of US cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 0.35% of the US's signed volume, and had cumulatively shipped 181 tons, accounting for 0.52% of the US's total shipment volume and 7.14% of China's signed volume [26] 09 - Industrial and Commercial Inventory - At the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from last month, a decline of 22.62%, and 588,400 tons lower than the same period last year, a decline of 21.18%. As of the end of July, the textile enterprises' in - stock industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of last month. The textile enterprises' disposable cotton inventory was 1.2062 million tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons from the end of last month. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 3.0882 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 497,000 tons [28] 10 - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports in June - In June 2025, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month, a decline of 25.0%, and a decrease of 130,000 tons from the same period last year, a decline of 82.1%. From January to June 2025, China had cumulatively imported 460,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. From September 2024 to August 2025, China had cumulatively imported 950,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 75.4%. In June 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.1%, and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 10%. From January to June 2025, China had cumulatively imported 670,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 13.6%. From September 2024 to June 2025, China had cumulatively imported about 1.17 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 18.18% [32] 11 - Cotton Yarn Production and Sales in July - In July, with the further reduction of spinning mills' operation rate, production continued to decline. The production of pure cotton yarn (excluding recycled yarn) in July was 434,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. From January to July, the cumulative production of pure cotton yarn was 3.004 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. July is still the traditional off - season for spinning mills. The downstream market showed some differentiation. From the perspective of operation rate and orders, the knitting market's orders increased slightly, and the operation rate rebounded slightly but remained at a low level. The operation rate of the weaving market mostly decreased. It is initially estimated that the consumption of pure cotton yarn (excluding recycled yarn) in July 2025 was 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. From January to July, the cumulative consumption was 3.592 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [36] 12 - US Cotton Growth - As of August 10, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 65%, 7 percentage points slower than last year and 6 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 8%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 53%, 7 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. The growth progress of US cotton was slower than last year and the five - year average, and the good - to - excellent rate decreased slightly month - on - month but was still much higher than the historical average [39] 13 - US Cotton Weather - As of August 12, the drought degree and coverage index of the main US cotton - growing areas (93.0%) was 50, an increase of 8 month - on - month and a decrease of 18 year - on - year. The drought degree and coverage index of Texas was 66, an increase of 2 month - on - month and a decrease of 26 year - on - year. The drought level in the main US cotton - growing areas rebounded, and that in Texas was basically stable month - on - month. In the past two weeks, the main growing areas and Texas had high temperatures and little rain, so the drought seasonally rebounded. Currently, the impact is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether the weather will continue to deteriorate [43] 14 - Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of August 11, 2025, Xinjiang's cotton growth had entered the late boll - setting stage. Affected by continuous high - temperature weather in some cotton areas, the boll - setting rate of upper fruit branches was low, and the number of top bolls decreased. The average number of bolls was 8.4, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous week. Among them, the average number of bolls in southern Xinjiang was 8.3, a decrease of 0.2; in northern Xinjiang, it was 8.4, a decrease of 0.4; in eastern Xinjiang, it was 8.4, the same as last week. This year, the number of pre - summer bolls increased by about 1 - 2 compared with last year. If proper management is carried out in the later stage to increase the number of autumn bolls and prevent cotton field premature aging, most cotton farmers are optimistic about this year's cotton yield increase, with an expected increase of 15 - 30 kg. Currently, cotton in some areas of southern and eastern Xinjiang has begun to open bolls, about 5 - 10 days earlier than last year. Cotton field management is coming to an end, and the supply of water and fertilizer is gradually decreasing. According to the survey, some cotton fields plan to stop irrigation around August 20 and start spraying defoliants around September 5. The new cotton picking time will be about 10 days earlier than in previous years [45] 15 - Textile Industry Inventory - In June, the textile industry's inventory was 401.53 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 1.12%. The textile industry's finished - product inventory was 215.3 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.18% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The textile and clothing inventory was 187.98 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%. The textile and clothing finished - product inventory was 99.31 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.68% [46] 16 - Domestic Demand - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.29%. From January to July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In July, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitted, and textile products were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 837.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [51] 17 - External Demand - According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 56.25 to close at 1042.75 cents per bushel, a 5.7% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 38 to close at 3083 yuan per ton, a 1.25% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2980 yuan per ton, a 2.05% increase; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 124 to close at 2649 yuan per ton; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 90 to close at 2530 yuan per ton, a 3.44% decrease [4]. - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were that the August report unexpectedly cut the area by 2.5 million acres, tightening the supply, which was bullish; the US soybeans were in the critical pod - setting period, and the recent weather forecast turned dry, which might have an adverse impact on crop growth; with the low - price advantage of US soybeans, other countries' procurement of new crops exceeded expectations; the crushing demand in July was strong, providing support. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, with increased volatility. The influencing factors included Trump's post at the beginning of the week hoping that China would increase US soybean imports, the domestic market declined and then rebounded under the emotional impact; the bullish support of the USDA report, combined with the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, tightened the long - term supply expectation [4]. - The cumulative precipitation in the US soybean producing areas in the next two weeks is lower than the average, which needs continuous attention. The USDA report cut the area and significantly raised the yield per unit. If the precipitation in the producing areas continues to be low, the yield per unit may be revised down. The US biodiesel policy is expanding, and the crushing demand is expected to remain strong, still supporting the price. The domestic short - term soybean and soybean meal supply is still available, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 8/15 | 8/8 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1042.75 | 986.50 | 56.25 | 5.70% | Cents/Bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 489.00 | 485.00 | 4.00 | 0.82% | US dollars/ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 456.00 | 443.00 | 13.00 | 2.93% | US dollars/ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | - 54.34 | - 42.65 | - 11.69 | - | Yuan/ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3083.00 | 3045.00 | 38.00 | 1.25% | Yuan/ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2649.00 | 2773.00 | - 124.00 | - 4.47% | Yuan/ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 434.00 | 272.00 | 162.00 | - | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3020.00 | 2940.00 | 80.00 | 2.72% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2980.00 | 2920.00 | 60.00 | 2.05% | Yuan/ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 103.00 | - 125.00 | 22.00 | - | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were the unexpected cut in area in the August report, the dry weather forecast during the pod - setting period, the strong procurement of new crops by other countries, and the strong crushing demand in July. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, influenced by Trump's post, the bullish USDA report, and the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed. The rapeseed meal showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [8]. - The August USDA report was overall bullish, with a cut in the 2025/2026 US soybean planting area, an increase in yield per unit, a decrease in overall production, a decrease in new - crop export demand, an increase in old - crop export demand, and a decline in the 2025/2026 ending inventory. The US soybean growth indicators were in line with expectations, and about 3% of the planting area was affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the producing areas is expected to be lower than the average [9]. - As of the week of August 7, 2025, the US soybean export net sales in the current market year were - 378,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales in the 2024/2025 were 5.112 million tons, which had completed the USDA target. The new - crop export net sales in the 2025/2026 were 1.133 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 471,000 tons. China had not purchased new - crop US soybeans. The US soybean crushing profit and related prices showed certain changes, and the NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in July increased compared with June and July 2024. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were raised [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, the unexecuted contracts decreased, and the national port soybean inventory increased. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the national soybean meal daily average trading volume decreased, the daily average pick - up volume was stable, the main oil mills' crushing volume increased, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were stable [12]. - The US soybean producing area's precipitation needs continuous attention. The US biodiesel policy expansion will support the price. The domestic short - term supply is available, and the long - term supply is expected to be tight. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [13]. Industry News - In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [14]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August were 2.77445327 million tons, with a daily average export volume 27% higher than that in August last year. Canada's June 2025 rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal exports were 651,106 tons, 223,217 tons, and 459,023 tons respectively [14]. - As of August 1, the US soybean, corn, and wheat unplanted areas were 1.199 million acres, 1.818 million acres, and 277,000 acres respectively. As of August 10, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports decreased compared with last year [15]. - The predicted 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production, planting area, and yield per unit increased compared with the previous year and the previous forecast. The Brazilian 2024/25 soybean production, crushing volume, export, soybean oil production, and soybean meal production forecasts were raised [16]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 50.2 million tons, a 2% upward revision [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF to - shore price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually show the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal [19][25][28]