Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the soybean meal and soybean industries. Instead, it suggests a "wait - and - see" approach due to market sentiment [1] Core View - Due to market sentiment, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for both soybean meal and soybean markets. The price movements of related futures and spot markets are influenced by factors such as China's soybean purchases and the expected decline in Brazil's soybean exports to China [1][3] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4404 yuan/ton during the day session, up 140 yuan (+3.28%), and 4388 yuan at night, up 42 yuan (+0.97%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2811 yuan/ton during the day, up 48 yuan (+1.74%), and 2807 yuan at night, up 16 yuan (+0.57%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1066 cents/bushel, up 9.5 cents (+0.90%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 305.3 dollars/short - ton, up 6.2 dollars (+2.07%) [1] - **Spot Data**: In Shandong, the spot price range is 3100 - 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day; in different regions and time periods, the spot prices are related to different contract premiums. For example, in January, it is M2605 + 350/+380. In East China, the price range is 3090 - 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 - 25 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - **Industrial Data**: The daily trading volume of soybean meal (43%) is 16.35 million tons, and the weekly inventory is 105.05 million tons, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 7, 2026, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the US Department of Agriculture confirmed that China continued to purchase US soybeans. Private exporters reported selling 33.6 million tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season. It is estimated that China has purchased more than 1000 million tons of US soybeans. However, once China's purchase volume reaches 1200 million tons, the demand for US soybeans may slow down. The head of the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) said that the US soybean sales to China will suppress Brazil's soybean demand this year, and ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports to China will drop to 7700 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year decrease of 1000 million tons [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral situation in the main contract price fluctuations of the day session on the reporting day [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | | | | | | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4276 | +17（+0.40%） 4280 | | | | | +16（+0.38%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2776 | +30（+1.09%） 2789 | | | | | +26（+0.94%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1056.5 | -5.75（-0.54%） | | | | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 299.1 | n a -0.6（-0.20%） | | | | | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | | | | 较昨持平至+40； 3070～3160， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term, but there is no obvious driving force in the medium - term logic. Conservative investors are advised to consider partial hedging at high prices for near - month contracts. The oil market is expected to be weakly volatile under the short - term expectation of loose supply and demand. Pre - holiday stockpiling is recommended to replenish inventory appropriately at low prices, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy. [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - China purchased at least 8 million tons of US soybeans in 2025, approaching the 12 - million - ton procurement target. The uncertainty of the subsequent procurement rhythm due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US is regarded as an important factor suppressing soybean prices. [1] - In November 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (221 million bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons (236 million bushels) in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons (210 million bushels) in November last year. [1] - Near - month contracts are affected by policy rumors. Before the state reserve release, the price is expected to be strong, but the domestic short - term soybean meal spot inventory is high. Once the reserve release occurs after the holiday, the premium may quickly disappear. [1] Oils - In October, the available capacity of US renewable diesel remained stable at 4.989 billion gallons per year. The use of soybean oil as a raw material for biofuel production decreased by 47 million pounds to 1.006 billion pounds, reaching a 6 - month low. As of the end of November, the US soybean oil inventory soared to 2.164 billion pounds, an 18 - month high. [2] - Due to strong monthly production offsetting the moderate growth of exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to rise to the highest level in nearly seven years. [2] - After the holiday, the oil sector declined significantly. The reasons include the sharp increase in US soybean oil inventory, uncertainty in biofuel demand, the pressure of rising palm oil inventory, and the possibility of resuming Canadian rapeseed imports. [2]

2025 年 12 月 25 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 豆一：国储收储价上调，影响偏多 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4106 +2 | （+0.05%） 4113 | +7（+0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2728 | -14（-0.51%） 2725 | -14（-0.51%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1075.75 | +12.75（+1.20%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 308 | +4.0（+1.32%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 3040～3110， | 较昨-10至持平； 持平； M2605+380， | 现货基差M2605+360， 3月M2605+340/+350/+360/+3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. soybean market is expected to face declining production and exports by 2026 due to ongoing U.S.-China trade uncertainties, while Brazil is likely to benefit from increased demand from China [1][2] - The U.S. soybean production for the 2025/26 season is projected to be 115.75 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, with export volumes expected to drop by 13.1% to 44.5 million tons [1][2] - The U.S. soybean export forecast reflects the complex trade realities, with actual trade volumes not recovering to previous levels despite some resumption of purchases by China [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government announced a $12 billion aid plan to alleviate farmer pressure, but traders believe this will only provide limited relief, with subsidies of about $31 per acre failing to address fundamental issues [2] - In contrast, Brazil is projected to achieve record soybean production of 177.1 million tons for the 2025/26 season, benefiting from expanded planting areas and favorable weather conditions [2][3] - Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 112 million tons in 2026, a 4.7% increase year-on-year, further solidifying its position as a key supplier to China [2][3] Group 3 - China's soybean import strategy is reshaping global trade dynamics, maintaining a differentiated tariff structure that favors Brazilian soybeans over U.S. soybeans [3][4] - As of mid-December, China had only purchased 3.25 million tons of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 season, indicating a cautious approach to replenishing U.S. soybean stocks [4] - The article suggests that the global soybean trade may undergo structural changes by 2026, with the U.S. facing challenges while Brazil consolidates its position as China's largest supplier [4]

Group 1 - After Trump's strong trade policies towards China, the U.S. soybean market faced significant turmoil, with prices dropping and farmers in the Midwest under pressure due to China's halt in soybean purchases [1] - China shifted its soybean purchases to South America, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. soybean exports, while the EU and Japan criticized China's trade practices and sought to persuade the U.S. for multilateral sanctions [1] - A temporary agreement was reached in late October, where China committed to purchasing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, and the U.S. temporarily suspended some tariffs [3] Group 2 - By November, China began placing large orders, resulting in a recovery of U.S. soybean exports, and Trump extended tariff exemptions in exchange for further soybean purchases from China [5] - Despite dissatisfaction from allies regarding unilateral actions, the U.S. maintained that China's reliability as a major commodity buyer was crucial for global supply chains [5] - By early December, China's procurement had reached half of the agreed target, stabilizing the U.S. soybean market and leading to a slight price increase [6]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕或跟随调整 豆一：调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 【宏观及行业新闻】 12 月 12 日 CBOT 大豆日评：巴西新豆即将收获，大豆跌至六周低点。北京德润林 2025 年 12 月 13 日消息：周五，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，主要反映了市场担心美国大豆出口需求放 缓，巴西大豆即将迎来丰收，引发一轮多头平仓热潮。由于交易商担心美国大豆出口窗口即将关闭，而巴 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4138 -29 | （-0.70%） 4122 | -29 （-0.70%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2770 | +16（+0.58%） 2765 | -8（-0.29 ...

中美最高层通话，就美国大豆进口问题达成了怎样的共识？中方给出两年来最大订单，这背后又传递出怎样的特殊信号？ 11月24日晚，中美最高层进行通话，特朗普随后在社交媒体上宣布，中方"大致同意"了加快并扩大对美国大豆的采购。 美国《财富》杂志网站爆料称，在冷落美国豆农数月之后，中国下了两年来最大的一笔美国大豆订单，给农民们带来了希望。 随后美国交易商也对媒体透露，中国签署了至少10船、总值约3亿美元的美国大豆新采购合同。 就在中美最高层通话后，英国路透社也报道称，目前已有2艘货轮正在开往路易斯安那州新奥尔良市附近的粮食出口码头，预计本周就会装载大豆开往中 国，这也是5月以来，首批向中国出口的美国大豆。 对于特朗普政府而言，大豆出口不仅仅是重要的外汇收入来源，美国农民、农场主更是特朗普和共和党的重要票仓，如果不能保证这部分人的利益，特朗普 政府很有可能在明年的中期选举落败。 因此在大豆进口的问题上，美国的心态明显是更加急切的一方，在中美经贸磋商取得共识后，特朗普政府就早早地给美国农民画饼。白宫声称，中国已同意 本季至少购买1200万吨美国大豆，并在未来三年内每年至少采购2500万吨美国大豆。 但是相关消息并没有获得中 ...

中国采购步伐再度放缓，仅上周五确认对华销售46.2万吨美国大豆，使得10月底以来确认的对华大豆销 售量达到270万吨大豆，相当于1200万吨采购目标的22.5%。 （来源：中华粮网） 报告预测，中国2025/26年度大豆进口量预计为1.06亿吨，和此前9月报告保持一致，较上年的1.07亿吨 小幅减少100万吨。这主要源于中国持续推动进口替代、优化饲料配方及稳定油脂供给的政策基调。 来源：中华粮网 中国2025/26年度大豆产量预计达到1990万吨，反映出政府持续推动粮油作物自给率的努力，包括扩种 激励、东北地区补贴及"粮油并举"政策导向。尽管国内产量增加，但增幅仍不足以显著改变对进口依赖 的格局，进口依旧占据供应主要份额。 中华粮网致力于成为中国粮食行业最权威、最专业的信息及数据服务提供商。 美国财政部长贝森特周三表示，中国正在按"正确节奏"履行贸易协议义务，包括采购1200万吨美国大 豆。不过他表示这些采购将在2026年2月底前完成，而此前白宫宣称这些采购将在2025年12月底前完 成。分析师认为，目前美国大豆价格高于巴西供应，是中国采购缓慢的主要原因。 从出口报价来看，阿根廷大豆最便宜。截至12月3日，阿 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观预测报告 2025 年 12 月 6 日 固定资产投资增速或仍偏弱 —2025 年 11 月宏观经济预测报告 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《服务消费淡季回调明显— —11 月 PMI 数据点评》2025- 12-6 | 张静静 | S1090522050003 | | --- | --- | | zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张岸天 | S1090522070002 | | zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn | | | 罗 丹 | S1090524070004 | | luodan7@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张玉书 | 研究助理 | | zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn | | | 赵兴举 | 研究助理 | zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 表 1：宏观经济指标实际值、预测值与未来方向 | 分类 | 预测指标 | 10 月实际 | 11 月预测 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 制造业 PMI（%） | ...