运往美国俄亥俄州储藏设施的美国大豆（reuters） "绝对是异常事态"，美国大豆出口协会CEO在接受采访时承认，中国对美国大豆的采购重启仍停滞。10 月底的中美首脑会谈中就恢复出货达成一致，并启动部分出口，但仍未出现大量采购的迹象。背景是中 国的替代采购…… 美国对中国的大豆出口依然停滞不前。大豆在作为鸡和猪饲料的粮食采购中属于重要品类之一。作为世 界最大消费国的中国在贸易战中一直通过抵制向美国特朗普政府施压。虽然在10月底的中美首脑会谈中 就恢复出货达成一致，并启动部分出口，但仍未出现大量采购的迹象，美国的农业相关人士对此忧心忡 忡。 美国农业相关人士发出担忧的声音 "绝对是异常事态"，美国大豆出口协会（USSEC）首席执行官（CEO）吉姆·萨特（Jim Sutter）在接受 日本经济新闻的独家采访时承认，中国对美国大豆的采购重启仍在停滞。他表示"想耐心等待"中国方面 的应对。 "（美国的）贸易商和农民等开始担心美国产大豆的采购能否如约进行"，美国中西部伊利诺伊州的谷物 期货交易商Allendale的首席策略师Rich Nelson如此指出。 中国通过抵制击中了"美国农民"这一特朗普政府的要害，在贸易战中 ...

之前，特朗普在发文中写道：希望中国能尽快大幅度提高对美国大豆的订单量。那会儿，他还保证，只要中国愿意购买，订单很快就能搞定。 挺有意思的是，特朗普虽然盼着中国帮忙进口大豆，但他却强调：中国目前对大豆短缺挺担心的，而美国农民能生产出最好的大豆，能帮中国解决这个难 题。 要知道，之前特朗普在贸易战上可是态度强硬得很，但谈到大豆这事，他似乎变得更温和一些，究竟是为什么呢？ 其实，我们一直盯着中美之间的关税加征、芯片争夺战和稀土制裁，殊不知，大豆这块蛋糕也是挺关键的角逐对象。 毫无疑问，特朗普这聪明的商人也早就察觉到这个苗头，他一看情况，迟早会带来影响。早在之前，他就忍不住在社交平台上透露心声：希望中国能多订一 些美国的大豆。 可现在特朗普看来，诚意还差点意思，光是不提敌对中国，光说关税问题双方都还没谈拢，大豆这个事自然就一直搁着。虽然他在之前的120亿美元农业援 助上，又额外加了160亿美元，希望能帮农民减轻点贸易战带来的压力。 根据美国大豆协会的资料，在2011年前的七年间，美国生产的大豆平均有28%销往中国，占当时美国大豆出口总量的60%。 在2023到2024年的市场年度里，美国对中国的大豆出口量接近2500 ...

来源：市场资讯 相关知情人士透露，中粮集团已采购至少 84 万吨美豆，计划于 12 月至次年 1 月装运。 其中一位交易员表示，其中八艘船将于 12 月至次年 1 月从美国墨西哥湾沿岸港口码头装运，其余船只则定于次年 1 月从美国西北部太平 洋沿岸港口启运。另一位交易员则估计，销售的大豆中约有 75%将从墨西哥湾沿岸港口装运，其余部分则从美国西北部沿岸港口发运。 （来源：海运经纪） 美方周五表示，大豆销售将在春季按计划推进。 两位知情交易员称，中国周一至少采购了 14 船美国大豆，这是自今年 1 月以来最大规模的采购，也是 10 月中美会晤后最重要的采购。 两位驻亚洲的交易员表示，尽管这些货物的价格高于竞争对手巴西的报价，但中国仍在购买美国大豆，以履行在韩国会晤期间向美方作 出的承诺。 交易员们表示，若更多交易最终敲定，销售总量可能更大。 白宫表示，中方今年将购买 1200 万吨美国大豆，但截至周一仅完成少量交易。美国政府数据显示，中国去年进口了近 2700 万吨美国大 豆。 亚洲交易员们估计，中粮集团从墨西哥湾港口装运的大豆价格比 1 月芝加哥合约高出每蒲式耳 2.35-2.40 美元，从美国西北部港口装运 ...

此前，在美国新一季大豆出口开启后，相当长的一段时间内未有对华销售或出货的记录，《纽约时报》 9月底更是指出，自今年5月以来，中方没有购买过任何美国大豆。 咨询公司AgResource称，中国进口商已从美国购入7到10船大豆，其中一些将在明年1月装运，另一些则 计划在明年6月或更晚装运。 彭博社指出，大豆一直是中美贸易紧张局势的焦点议题，中国则是世界上最大的大豆进口国，中方暂停 采购美国大豆的做法，给美国种植户带来了压力，也让中方在关税博弈中占据了关键优势。 美国威斯康星州沃尔沃斯，田间正在收割的大豆。IC photo 【文/观察者网 熊超然】"受中国加大大豆采购力度迹象的提振，大豆期货价格大幅上涨，此前这一采购 一度停滞，如今给美国农民带来了希望。" 彭博社当地时间11月17日报道称，美国芝加哥期货交易所的大豆期货价格当天一度上涨3.2%，创下17 个月以来的新高。此前，美国总统特朗普曾于当地时间11月14日告诉记者，"中方正在采购大豆"，并迫 不及待地称，"这些采购可能在（明年）春季之前就开始"。 美国财政部长贝森特前一天在接受福克斯新闻网采访时则称，他相信中方会履行协议。"他们已经开始 购买大豆了，"他说 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic situation shows a weak recovery, with 10 - month economic data indicating mixed trends in various sectors. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile recovery, and the stock market has different trends in insurance capital investment and institutional research preferences. For 2026, the economy is expected to have positive growth, and different investment strategies are recommended [32][33]. - The commodity market is affected by factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical situation, resulting in price fluctuations and changes in market structure [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49%, lower than the previous and the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from the previous month. The social financing scale in October was 816.1 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous month [1]. - In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, a narrower decline than before. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year - to - date, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.28% year - to - date [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 462.91 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. Platinum and palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025 [2]. - On November 14, 42 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", excluding some agricultural products [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - London's basic metals all declined due to the Fed's policy uncertainty and weak economic data. The demand for lithium carbonate in 2025 is expected to reach 155 tons, with an oversupply of about 20 tons. In 2026, the demand is expected to increase by 30%, and the price may rise [4][5]. - The expansion project of Northern Zhongxin Antai Rare Earth Metals was put into production, increasing the production capacity and product variety. On November 13, zinc inventory reached a new high in over a month, while lead inventory decreased [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of early November, the prices of coking coal and coke increased. The production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel in October decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The shipping volume of iron ore to China increased, but port inventory reached an eight - month high [7][8][9]. - The Indonesian government set the benchmark prices for different grades of coal in the second half of November. The steel industry should seize development opportunities, improve product quality, and enhance the self - sufficiency rate of iron ore [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The first gas storage group in Northwest China started winter gas supply, with a maximum daily supply of over 5 million cubic meters. The Russian port of Novorossiysk stopped oil exports due to a drone attack and then resumed operations on November 16 [10][11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Over 80% of winter wheat has been sown in China. The US soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high. India is considering resuming wheat product exports, and the US and Switzerland adjusted agricultural product tariffs [12]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 15 decreased by 15.5% [13]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 17, the central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. This week, 112.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature. On November 14, the central bank conducted 21.28 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 7.11 billion yuan [15][16]. 3.3.2 Key News - An important article by Xi Jinping emphasizes the development of new - quality productivity. Han Wenxiu mentions cultivating emerging and future industries. China's economic data in October shows a stable operation, and the government promotes consumption and implements fiscal and monetary policies [17][18][19]. - The real estate market shows price declines, and the government promotes "two - major" construction. The financial market needs improvement, and the central bank and financial regulatory authorities take measures. The bond market has rating changes and redemption events [19][20][24]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market fluctuated narrowly, with mixed changes in bond yields and futures. The money market funds were balanced, and the overnight repurchase rate increased. The exchange - traded bond market had different trends for different bonds, and the convertible bond index declined [26][27]. - The yields of European and US bonds increased, and the money market interest rates showed different trends. The central bank's bond issuance had specific winning bid yields and multiples [29][30]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1007, down 48 basis points. The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market will maintain a volatile recovery, and the 10 - year treasury bond rate may decline. Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market's allocation power is neutral [32][33]. - CITIC Construction Investment predicts that the GDP in 2026 will grow by about 5%, and recommends investment in three main lines. CITIC Securities believes that the wealth management industry is in a transformation period [33]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the probability of a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut is low, and the interest rate cut window may open. CICC Fixed Income believes that the bond market may have a configuration opportunity [34]. 3.4 Stock Market - At the end of Q3 2025, the insurance funds' stock investment balance increased significantly, with bank stocks being the main investment target. In November, nearly 770 companies were surveyed by institutions, with a focus on the electronics and machinery sectors [37]. - South - bound funds have been flowing in for 26 consecutive weeks, and Xiaomi Group - W received the highest net purchase in the past week [37][38].

十月底的釜山会晤一度让美国大豆农场主们松了口气。白宫单方面高调宣布，中国承诺在2025年底前采购1200万吨美国大豆，未来三年年均进口量将达2500 万吨。消息一出，芝加哥期货交易所的大豆价格应声而涨。可热闹没撑过半个月，贸易商们就发现不对劲——除了中粮集团象征性签下的18万吨订单，中国 买家再没有大规模采购动静。美国农业界坐不住了，频频发声质疑中方"违约"，甚至暗示这是"政治失信"。但翻开贸易数据算一笔账，问题真的出在诚信上 吗？ 关税差距让美豆彻底失去价格竞争力。 眼下美国大豆运抵中国的关税高达13%，这还没算上之前贸易战留下的额外税费。而隔壁的巴西大豆只要缴纳3%的 基础关税。10个百分点的差距意味着什么？按照当前市场价格，美豆必须比巴西豆每吨便宜45到50美元，中国压榨企业才愿意买单。可现实是，美国大豆农 场主正承受高库存和低价格的双重压力，根本没有降价空间。有贸易商直言，"除非华盛顿愿意补贴差价，否则商业采购根本不可能发生"。 中国油厂的库存数据给了更直观的解释。 由于前期大量采购南美大豆，国内主要港口的大豆库存已经堆到三年高位。江苏一家压榨企业负责人苦笑着比 喻："仓库里堆满巴西豆，这时候谁还会高 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around China's halt in large-scale soybean purchases from the U.S., which contrasts with the U.S. government's expectations of a $120 billion procurement commitment [1] - China's agricultural imports have diversified, with private enterprises increasing their share, indicating that state-owned enterprises cannot fulfill the large orders anticipated by the U.S. [5] - The U.S. soybean industry is facing internal challenges, including surplus inventory and rising production costs, which complicate the market dynamics [3] Group 2 - The U.S. soybean import tariff of 13% significantly hampers competitiveness compared to Brazilian soybeans, which are 10% cheaper [1] - Brazil's soybean exports to China are projected to reach approximately 4 million tons by the end of 2025, providing China with leverage in negotiations [1] - The U.S. agricultural sector is concerned about the political volatility affecting trade agreements, as seen in the uncertainty faced by farmers regarding whether to store or sell their soybeans [3][5] Group 3 - China's procurement strategy appears to focus on risk diversification rather than reliance on a single source, reflecting a cautious approach in the face of geopolitical tensions [1] - The U.S. soybean association expresses hope that agricultural trade will not be politicized, highlighting the industry's frustration with the current trade environment [5] - China's response to the U.S. trade policies suggests that cooperation is contingent upon the removal of high tariffs, indicating a need for a more balanced trade relationship [5]

难道美国大豆就彻底没机会了吗？倒也未必。每年11月到次年2月是南美大豆的供应淡季，这为美豆提供了一个天然的时间窗口。如果巴西的运输或天气出 现波动，或者中国储备系统出于战略考虑进行采购，美豆仍有翻盘可能。但问题在于，这种采购往往由中粮、中储粮等国企主导，带有明显的政策色彩，难 以反映真实的市场需求。而眼下中美关系的微妙之处就在于，中方虽然暂停了部分农产品关税反制，却始终保留着"暂停"而非"取消"的表述——这本身就是 一种战略预留，一把可以随时收回的"钥匙"。 白宫急于向国内农业州展示"对华贸易成果"，但北京的回应却相当谨慎。中方从未公开确认过所谓的"干杯式采购承诺"，反而在通报中强调企业可"自主决 策、择优采购"。这"择优"二字，分明是留给巴西大豆的后门。中国市场的逻辑很清晰：你要卖豆，我得看价。政治氛围可以暖场，但最终登台唱戏的还得 是性价比。美国如果真想稳住中国这个全球最大大豆买家，就得在降低关税壁垒、提供稳定贸易预期上拿出诚意，而非指望通过一两次高层会晤就能"签单 了事"。 回过头看，这场大豆贸易的拉锯战折射出中美经贸关系的深层困境。美方总希望用政治协议撬动市场订单，中方却坚持用市场规则消化政治波动。美 ...

刚刚过去的10月，对于特朗普来说是一个值得炫耀的时刻。 他在亚洲之行后，宣布与中国达成了一份"休战协议"，并声称这场可能摧毁全球经济的贸易战暂时停火。 然而，中国在稀土问题上的一次"让步"，却让特朗普陷入了更大的被动局面。 稀土被称为现代高科技产业的"维生素"，广泛应用于智能手机、电动车、隐形战机和导弹制导系统等领域。 中国控制着全球约90%的稀土供应，是当之无愧的"稀土界欧佩克"。 此前，中国对稀土出口实施严格管制，美国科技产业和军工企业一度陷入供应链危机。 然而，在这次谈判中，中国宣布暂停稀土出口禁令，直到2026年11月。 这一"暂停"并不是永久取消，而是一个象征性的动作，向外界传递了三个信号：中国可以随时重启禁令，禁令的威慑力真实有效，美国 必须以让步换取喘息机会。 他们原本希望通过港口费壁垒复兴造船工业，却发现特朗普为了稀土问题"牺牲"了他们的利益。 这种来自政治基本盘的反对，让特朗普的紧张情绪进一步加剧。 美媒普遍认为，特朗普的"12分胜利"不过是一个笑话。 所谓的休战更像是美国对中国的"求和"。 中国通过象征性的让步，展现了稀土资源的巨大威慑力。 而特朗普面对的，是愤怒的工会、嘲讽的媒体，以及五 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher on November 12, 2025, with position adjustments by traders ahead of the USDA's supply - demand report, but the price increase was limited due to insufficient Chinese purchases [2][4] - Analysts expect the US soybean yield to be 53.1 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's September 12 estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre [4] - The market is concerned about the change in yield data and China's progress in purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of the year, and China is facing a situation of soybean surplus after months of record - high imports [4] - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day of the report [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 had a day - session closing price of 4127 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and a night - session closing price of 4113 yuan/ton; DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 3059 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, and a night - session closing price of 3052 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; CBOT soybean 01 was at 1134 cents per bushel, up 7.25 cents (+0.64%); CBOT soybean meal 12 was at 322 dollars per short ton, up 5.2 dollars (+1.64%) [2] - **Spot Basis**: In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal is M2601 + 10, down 10 to flat compared to the previous day; in East China, it is flat; in South China, the spot basis of Fangchenggang Aojia is M2601 - 30, flat, and that of Hainan Aosika is M2601 + 40, flat [2] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 210,500 tons per day, down from 234,000 tons in the previous period, and the inventory was 963,100 tons per week, down from 1,059,300 tons in the previous period [2] Macro and Industry News - On November 12, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. Traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA's supply - demand report, but the price increase was limited due to insufficient Chinese purchases [2][4] - Analysts expect the US soybean yield to be 53.1 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's September 12 estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre [4] - The market is concerned about the change in yield data and China's progress in purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of the year. Since the leaders' meeting last month, China has only made small - scale purchases of US agricultural products, and China is facing a situation of soybean surplus [4] Trend Strength - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day of the report [4]