据路透社报道，特朗普近期公开呼吁中国增加美国大豆进口，称此举 "对双方都有利"，未获中方回应。 中国随即对美国大豆加征 25% 关税。这一反制措施直接抬高了美国大豆进入中国市场的成本，削弱其价格竞争力。美国大豆对华出口量应声 下滑。贸易战后首年，中国从美国进口大豆降至 1664 万吨，同比降幅超 50%。同期，从巴西进口大豆增至 7400 万吨，占中国进口总量的 65%。全球大豆贸易流向发生显著调整。美国大豆产业陷入困境。2023 年，美国大豆库存达 15 亿蒲式耳，创历史新高。芝加哥商品交易所大 豆期货价格较 2018 年下跌 28%。中西部农场主被迫将滞销大豆囤积在仓库，部分甚至直接烂在田间。 美国贸易政策的短视性加剧了自身困境。加征关税看似保护本土产业，实则切断了农产品的重要出口通道。政府推出的农业补贴计划，三年间 累计支出 300 亿美元，仍难弥补市场流失带来的损失。中国作为全球最大大豆消费国，年需求量超 1 亿吨。这一市场体量，是美国大豆产业发 展的重要支撑。失去中国市场份额后，美国大豆出口总额年均减少 120 亿美元。 特朗普在公开场合多次表示，愿与中国协商降低大豆关税，承诺 "提供更优惠的出口条 ...

如今，美国的农场主们只能自我安慰，寄希望于未来几年中国不会完全将美国大豆市场剔除，尽管这样的趋势已愈加明显。若特朗普真心希望帮助自己的农 业和改善两国的贸易关系，他当务之急就是要正视中美贸易冲突的根源，取消不合理的关税政策，并重新建立与中国的市场信任。因为人民才是一个国家的 坚实基础，政治上的博弈最终都应以民众的福祉为核心。但现在的特朗普显然有些本末倒置。 随着丰收季节的到来，美国的农场主们面临着前所未有的困扰。他们的烦恼并不是因为粮食的收成不如预期，反而是因为丰收的喜悦却迎来了一个冷清的现 状——中国的买家始终不见踪影。来自观察者网的报道显示，近期美国多州的农业产量统计结果显示，除了少数几个州之外，绝大部分地区的玉米和大豆产 量都超过了去年的水平。然而，这种农业丰收的喜悦在农场主的脸上显得有些苍白无力，因为他们始终无法等到期盼的中国进口商打来的订单电话。这样的 窘境不仅令许多农场主陷入焦虑，甚至让美国总统特朗普也感到不安。 就在不久前，特朗普难以安眠，翻来覆去的思虑之中，他在夜深人静时分发布了一 条"求助信息"，恳求中国能够将美国大豆的订单量提高三倍。这一请求却意外地引来了国内众多人士的不满和指责，因为这一 ...

一觉醒来，特朗普又上演了一出 "极限拉扯" 的戏码。 当地时间 8 月 11 日，就在中美经贸 "休战" 期限到期的前一天，他磨磨蹭蹭地签下了延长关税暂停期的行政令，把这 "休战" 状态又续了 90 天。 这操作就像玩游戏快 Game Over 时突然按了暂停键，既想喘口气，又舍不得放下手里的控制器。 更有意思的是，签完字的他转头就向中国喊话，希望咱们多买美国大豆，最好能把订单翻四倍。这前倨后恭的样子，活像个刚跟你吵完架，转头又求你借他 块橡皮的小学生。 关税 "暂停键"：特朗普的缓兵之计 要说这关税暂停期，原本 8 月 12 日就到期了。要是特朗普不签字，那中美之间的关税就得回到今年 4 月的 "高烧" 状态 —— 美国对华关税飙到 145%，中 国对美关税也得升到 125%。这可不是闹着玩的，就像给两国贸易的血管上扎了根大针头，血都得往外飙。 美国商家早就急得像热锅上的蚂蚁，要是关税真涨到那地步，进口的中国商品价格得翻着跟头往上涨，货架上的东西卖不出去，最后哭的还是美国老百姓。 特朗普这最后一刻的签字，看着像是让步，实则是打得一手 "缓兵之计" 的牌。美财长贝森特说得明明白白："得先按美国的标准来，让制造 ...

据报道，掐着最后一刻，特朗普还是签了字。8月11日，白宫宣布将暂停大幅提高中国商品关税的期限 再延长90天。眼看第二天就是休战到期日，这个延期来得惊险万分。表面看是美方让步，可仔细琢磨， 里头全是精算——美国财长贝森特放风：美国跟"大部分国家"的贸易谈判要在10月前搞定。这90天，摆 明了是美方腾出手来对付其他贸易伙伴的缓冲期，然后再转头集中火力"解决"中国。 讽刺的是，美军的挑衅显得越来越虚。此前闯西沙还敢放舰载机秀肌肉，这回"希金斯"号全程保持无线 电静默，连舰载雷达都不敢全开！中国这边的应对却越发从容。黄岩岛周边，"立体监控网"已然成型 ——卫星实时跟踪、无人机抵近侦察、海空兵力联动，美军每闯一次，我们的防御体系就完善一分。 特朗普在贸易桌前想要大豆救命，美军在南海却对中国捅刀——这精分的戏码，美国自己演得矛盾又狼 狈。 经贸上，美国农民苦等中国订单，可关税壁垒不拆，四倍采购只能是痴人说梦。军事上，拉菲律 宾当炮灰，自己派艘驱逐舰还畏手畏脚，连盟友都敷衍了事：日本自卫队嘴上说"常态化部署南海"，转 头就拒了跟美军黄岩岛联合巡逻；澳大利亚更是把军舰直接调去了波斯湾。当中国与东盟贸易额突破， 碾压美日印澳" ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Trump's call for China to increase its soybean orders from the U.S. by four times, highlighting the strained trade relations between the two countries [1] - In 2017, U.S. soybeans accounted for nearly 40% of China's total imports, but this figure is projected to drop to 20% by 2024 due to tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration [3] - Brazil's share of soybean imports to China has risen significantly, from 50% in 2017 to 70% in 2024, as China diversifies its sources to ensure stable supply and lower costs [3] Group 2 - China's delayed purchasing of U.S. soybeans this year marks the latest start since 2005, indicating a shift in procurement strategies and a surplus in soybean meal supply [3] - The U.S. government has imposed sanctions on two Chinese entities related to oil trade with Iran, which is seen as an attempt to pressure China into increasing soybean purchases [5] - China's energy import strategy has diversified, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar and making it difficult for U.S. sanctions to disrupt its energy cooperation with Iran [5] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for U.S. agriculture is bleak without the Chinese market, leading to unsold agricultural products and declining prices for American farmers [7] - The proposed $60 billion agricultural subsidy plan by the U.S. government has faced criticism for primarily benefiting large agricultural enterprises, leaving family farms with limited support [7] - China's trade policies are driven by its own market and strategic considerations, suggesting that external pressures from the U.S. may not lead to significant changes in its procurement practices [7]

比起关税战输给中国，特朗普现在最发愁的一件事，就是之前中国少有依赖美国的一笔生意，好像要被别人抢走了。 据环球网报道，最近，在中美达成一致，同意冻结两国部分关税之际，特朗普在社交媒体上，发布了一则"求助信息"，希望中国能将美国大豆的 订单量提高三倍。 数据显示，在2016年的时候，美国几乎占据着中国进口大豆的半壁江山，市场份额一度超过4成，但随着美国近年来不断遏制中国的发展，情况开 始急转直下。 一开始，美方还在嘴硬，声称自家大豆的出口量不降反增，国内供应一点都不紧张，结果特朗普的这番喊话，等于撕开了美国的遮羞布。 特朗普深夜发布求助信息 美国大豆在华份额大幅缩减 没错，在减少对美国大豆的进口之后，巴西立刻找中方商量，提高巴西大豆对华的出口量，目前，巴西大豆已经占据了7成中国市场，而美国大豆 只剩下两成，并且还在不断减少。 跟美国相比，巴西要可信得多，卢拉作为中国人的老朋友，重新上台之后积极深化中巴关系，再加上巴西大豆的产量傲视全球，完全能够满足中 国的需求，给美国大豆全挤走都没问题。 而且，卢拉的胃口可不止大豆，之前400多家美国牛肉企业对华的出口资质到期，而中方迟迟没有续约，就让巴西嗅到了机会。 在今年4 ...

Core Insights - As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the soybean crushing profit in the United States is reported at $2.91 per bushel, reflecting a decrease of 5.8% from the previous week [1] - For reference, the average crushing profit for 2024 is projected to be $2.44 per bushel, which is lower than the $3.29 per bushel recorded in 2023 [1] Summary by Category - **Soybean Crushing Profit** - Current profit stands at $2.91 per bushel, down 5.8% week-over-week [1] - Average profit for 2024 is estimated at $2.44 per bushel, indicating a decline compared to 2023's $3.29 per bushel [1]

Group 1 - The unexpected suspension of sanctions on Chinese purchases of Russian oil following the Trump-Putin meeting has created a significant shift in international trade dynamics, particularly benefiting China and Russia while adversely affecting India [1][3][10] - Trump's decision to delay the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods until November 10 is strategically timed before the U.S. holiday shopping season, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [5][8] - The U.S. Treasury has estimated that imposing secondary tariffs on energy imports from China could result in an additional cost of up to $120 billion for U.S. retailers, highlighting the economic stakes involved [6][10] Group 2 - The energy cooperation between China and Russia is deepening, with the Power of Siberia pipeline already delivering over 200 billion cubic meters of natural gas, showcasing the strategic importance of this partnership [12] - India's reliance on Russian oil has surged from 0.2% to 40% over the past three years, but recent U.S. tariffs have forced Indian refiners to seek alternative sources, leading to increased costs and operational challenges [14][16] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with China emerging as a key player in negotiations, while India finds itself in a precarious position, struggling to maintain its economic interests amid rising tensions [18][20] Group 3 - The U.S. is quietly developing a "new trade framework" with China, which includes a list of exemptions for certain goods, indicating a strategic maneuver to regain leverage in trade negotiations [22] - European countries, while publicly supporting sanctions against Russia, continue to import Russian energy, revealing a complex and often contradictory stance in international relations [24][26] - The dynamics of international politics are increasingly driven by raw economic interests, with countries like China and Russia forming strategic alliances while India faces challenges in balancing its foreign relations [28]

硬的不行来软的，特朗普求到咱们头上了。 就在特朗普签字批准，中美关税谈判再延长90天的同时，他在社交媒体上发文，请求中方购买美国的大豆，他说最好能把采购量增加4倍，他要感谢中国， 还要给中国提供快速服务。 第一个，全世界除了中国，就再也没有一个能吃下美国大豆的市场了。 本质上来讲，大豆其实是一种中国特供粮食，其他国家对大豆的需求量并不高。 去年中国大豆消耗量高达1.17亿吨，占到了全球大豆贸易总量的85%，所以离开了中国市场，美国大豆真得烂在仓库里。 第二，特朗普发起关税的主要理由，就是要减少美国的贸易逆差，其中对中国的贸易逆差接近3000亿美元。 这不是个小数目，该怎么减少呢？ 答案就是让中国多买美国的商品，去年中国进口了120亿美元的美国大豆，翻4倍就是480亿，就能减少相当一部分贸易逆差了。 第三，美国明年的中期选举，从今年10月份就要开始造势。 美国很多农业州都是共和党的铁票仓，但恰恰是他们选上来的特朗普，却把美国农民伤得最深。 特朗普的态度极其谦卑，这跟他以往的风格完全不一样，那我们会不会满足他呢？ 首先说特朗普为何要请求咱们买大豆？主要有3大原因。 比如欧盟，不光要缴纳15%的关税，还得对美国投资 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to the sentiment of trade relaxation, US soybeans are strong while Dalian soybean meal is weak, and the soybean No.1 futures contract shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. - Trump urged China to increase US soybean purchases by 300%, and extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days, which boosted the soybean market. Meanwhile, concerns about dry weather in the US Midwest and the adjustment of positions before the USDA supply - demand report also influenced the market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 4067 yuan/ton during the day session, down 26 yuan (-0.64%), and 4047 yuan/ton at night, down 16 yuan (-0.39%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3072 yuan/ton during the day, down 16 yuan (-0.52%), and 3064 yuan/ton at night, down 5 yuan (-0.16%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1010.25 cents/bu, up 23.75 cents (+2.41%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 289.9 dollars/short ton, up 4.9 dollars (+1.72%) [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 2970 - 3000 yuan/ton, flat to +10 yuan compared to the previous day. The basis had various levels and remained stable. In East China, the spot price of soybean meal in Taizhou Huifu was 2920 yuan/ton, flat. In South China, the spot price was 2970 - 3000 yuan/ton, flat to +10 yuan, and the basis also had different levels and remained stable [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 8.2 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 4.75 million tons per day on the day before. The inventory data was not available on the previous trading day, while it was 97.76 million tons per week on the day before [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - On August 11, CBOT soybean futures closed sharply higher, hitting a two - week high. Trump urged China to increase US soybean purchases by 300%, and extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days. Concerns about dry weather in the US Midwest and position adjustment before the USDA supply - demand report also affected the market. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 10 was 68%, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, in line with market expectations [3]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main futures contracts during the day session on the report day [3].