中美贸易关系缓和预期

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工业硅盘面触底反弹 现货止跌 但需求支撑有限
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-06-13 08:31
Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market shows signs of slight recovery, with prices rebounding after reaching a low point, but downstream purchasing remains cautious, focusing on demand-based procurement [1][2]. Supply Side - Major northern manufacturers are steadily advancing their resumption plans, and with the onset of the flood season, some silicon plants in the southwest are also resuming operations, leading to an overall increase in production [1]. - New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, contributing to increased supply [1]. Demand Side - The operating load of organic silicon monomer plants has increased, but there is some inventory pressure, leading downstream to primarily engage in small-scale replenishment, resulting in a downward shift in overall transaction focus [1]. - There are no large-scale resumption plans from polysilicon companies, which means limited changes in demand for industrial silicon [1]. - Aluminum alloy companies are maintaining stable production and purchasing industrial silicon based on demand, leading to a slight overall increase in demand [1]. Cost Analysis - With the arrival of the flood season, electricity prices in the southwest have decreased, leading to a reduction in costs and further weakening cost support [1]. - Industrial silicon inventory remains high (over 900,000 tons), exerting significant pressure on industrial silicon prices [1]. Price Outlook - Although costs in the south are decreasing and lower cost support is weakening, current prices are already below cost, indicating limited space for further declines [2]. - While demand is increasing, supply is also rising, which limits the price support from demand increases, leading to expectations of price stability within a bottom range in the short term [2].
工业硅盘面触底反弹 现货止跌 但需求支撑有限
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-06-13 08:30
Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market shows signs of recovery with a slight rebound in prices, although downstream purchasing remains cautious and primarily based on demand [1][2] Supply Side - Major northern manufacturers are steadily advancing their resumption plans, and with the onset of the flood season, some silicon plants in the southwest are also resuming operations, leading to an overall increase in production [1] - New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, contributing to increased supply [1] Demand Side - The operating load of organic silicon monomer plants has increased, but there is some inventory pressure, leading downstream to primarily engage in small-scale replenishment [1] - There are no large-scale resumption plans from polysilicon companies, resulting in minimal changes in demand for industrial silicon [1] - Aluminum alloy companies are maintaining stable production and purchasing industrial silicon based on demand, leading to a slight overall increase in demand [1] Cost Analysis - With the arrival of the flood season, electricity prices in the southwest have decreased, further weakening cost support [1] - Industrial silicon inventory remains high (over 900,000 tons), exerting significant pressure on industrial silicon prices [1] Price Outlook - Although costs in the south are decreasing and lower cost support is weakening, current prices are already below cost, limiting further downside potential [2] - While demand is increasing, supply is also rising, which limits the price support from demand increases; prices are expected to remain in a bottom range of fluctuation in the short term [2]