2025年11月11日，备受全球金融界瞩目的Wiki Finance EXPO Dubai 2025在迪拜千禧广场市中心酒店盛 大开幕。本次博览会由WikiGlobal与WikiEXPO联合主办，汇聚了来自全球的3000余名行业参与者、超 过70家展商及50多位顶尖行业专家，共同探讨金融科技、外汇、加密货币、Web3.0、人工智能及金融 监管科技等前沿议题。在这场高规格的国际金融盛事中，金牌分析师与资深培训专家王锡环女士作为特 邀嘉宾出席，其深厚的行业积淀与独到的投资见解成为会场关注的焦点之一。 履历跨越东西半球，实战经验淬炼真知 技术分析与双轨策略并重，倡导稳健增值理念 在本次博览会关于金融科技与交易策略的讨论中，王锡环女士的核心方法论得到了充分展现。她是一位 坚定的技术分析实战派，善于将深厚的理论学识与丰富的市场经验相融合，构建了一套专注于外汇、股 票及黄金市场的技术交易体系。 其投资理念的一大亮点在于"双轨交易策略"的娴熟运用。她同时精通短线高频交易与中长期趋势交易， 这种灵活性使其能够游刃有余地应对不同级别的市场波动，捕捉多元化的盈利机会。无论是瞬息万变的 市场短线机会，还是宏观趋势下的中长期布局，她 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 24 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力阶段性体现 粕类承压回落 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价偏强 国内糖价走弱 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | 生猪：供应压力继续增加 现货延续回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：下跌风险得到释放 关注交易逻辑的切换 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：减产趋势下价格底部震荡 15 | | 金银震荡中等待方向 16 | 贵金属：美联储"鹰鸽"分歧加剧 | | --- | --- | | 铜：短期关注下方支撑 17 | | | 关注仓单转现 18 | 氧化铝：实质性减产仍未兑现 | | 沪铝压力减弱 19 | 电解铝 ...

2026 年全球资产配置展望 20251121 2026 年的投资有两个核心关切：第一是股票和黄金的牛市能否延续；第二是 如果牛市有所改变，应采取哪些应对措施。近期中国、美股及黄金都有一些回 调，反映市场开始思考未来趋势改变的可能性。 当前黄金、美股和中国债券估值较高，美债和原油等商品估值较低。A 股和港股估值适中。地缘政治事件可能冲击市场，通常对股票不利，对 黄金和商品有推升作用。 维持超配中国股票和黄金的策略，但需注意波动风险。增加商品配置以 对冲股票和黄金牛市趋势改变的风险。中国股票风格应更均衡，价值与 周期板块可能补涨。 如何分析不同大类资产的牛熊切换规律？ 分析不同大类资产的牛熊切换规律时，可以通过历史数据总结其特点。例如， 美股牛市占总市场时间比例较长（84%），单次牛市时长约为 5.6 年，而熊市 较短，因此分析其顶部性价比不高。而中国股票波动较大，牛熊切换频繁，需 要更关注顶部判断。同样，黄金牛熊分布均衡，但单次周期较长，因此顶部判 断也很重要。 摘要 全球股票和黄金市场受益于技术革命和成长股跑赢价值股的趋势，中国 股票表现优于美国股票。中金建议超配黄金和中国科技股，低配商品和 美元资产，该策 ...

通货紧缩时期，对于持有现金的人而言，无疑是一段令人欣喜的时光。他们的购买力悄然提升，手中之钱愈发"值钱"，而物价的持续下跌正是通缩最鲜明的 标志。 细究日常，便可窥见一斑。去年猪肉尚需三十余元一斤，如今不过十八元便可得，同样的开销，能够多添近一斤肉食，这绝非小数。家用电器亦然，曾标价 三千五百元的洗衣机，如今已降至三千出头，跌幅近乎百分之十五。就连汽车这等大宗商品，曾经二十五万元的中档轿车，现在十八万元便可入手，手握现 金，相当于白白省下了七万元。 或许有人会觉得银行存款利息微薄，放之银行难以划算。然则，利息纵然不高，亦是实实在在的正收益。而物价下跌所带来的隐性收益，其可观程度远胜于 此。这种"钱未多赚，却能购得更多物品"的感受，正是现金在通缩期的硬核优势，手持现金者，自然暗自窃喜。 其次，现金还能有效规避投资风险，做到"不亏即赚"。当前，不少人因嫌存款利息低，便急于将资金投向股票、基金，期盼一夜暴富。然而，现实却是残酷 的：2024年，股民人均亏损竟达十四万元；部分公募基金更是跌幅高达百分之二十，连过往被视为稳妥之选的银行理财产品，亦不乏出现亏损者。与此相 对，那些手中持有现金的人，尽管利息收入不多，但本金 ...

随着美国政府停摆告一段落、被压制的经济数据陆续回归，加上美联储官员将在下周密集发声，市场正 步入一个重新校准信息的阶段。对交易者而言，这不是按兵不动的时刻，而是评估"新一轮数据与政策 信号会否推动预期再次修正"的关键窗口。 在风险偏好与避险情绪之间不断切换的环境下，下周可能出现几类具有代表性的行情表现：美元与美债 收益率或维持强势,若数据强劲叠加政策偏紧的市场解读，美元及长期收益率可能继续偏上行，对黄金 及高杠杆资产形成压力。黄金虽受压制，但反弹空间仍取决于数据导向,若经济信号偏弱或市场重新押 注宽松，黄金有望迎来阶段性修复，但结构性限制仍在，需关注反弹持续性。股市内部机会增多，但分 化明显,在数据与政策预期摇摆的背景下，板块轮动可能更为突出。高估值科技、成长板块以及对利率 敏感的行业波动或进一步加大。 下周市场大概率将从"信息被动缺失"进入"主动重建预期"的阶段。交易者需要关注的是：哪些数据或言 论会真正改变市场的既有假设。随着政策路径仍未完全明朗、数据重新集中公布，资产波动可能被进一 步放大。在这样的环境中，稳健的风险管理和灵活的操作策略，仍是不变的核心。 保持仓位灵活度：在数据密集和政策信号不稳定的阶段 ...

近期美联储内部的分歧有所加深，部分官员开始强调金融体系压力，而另一些则继续关注通胀的粘性。 下周的会议纪要、公开讲话以及市场对利率路径的再定价，都将影响美元与利率资产的短线表现。对市 场来说，关键并不在于是否立即调整政策，而在于美联储是否暗示未来几个月的政策节奏。 随着市场从避险模式逐渐过渡到更偏向选择性风险偏好，资产之间的差异化仍会持续： 下周的市场将进入"等待信息再定价"的核心阶段。数据重新出现，政策信号持续释放，交易者需要重点 关注哪些变量真正具备改变市场路径的潜力。在双重不确定的格局下，资产波动可能增大，而清晰的风 险控制与应对策略，将成为把握市场机会的关键。 美元与美债收益率：若数据表现稳固，加上政策端偏紧，美元和长期收益率仍可能走强，对黄金 和高杠杆交易会形成压力。 黄金及避险资产：在宏观层面仍具支撑，但短线上会受到政策预期和收益率变化的牵动，一旦经 济数据走弱，其反弹动能会有所增强。 股市结构性机会：在政策与数据不明朗的背景下，行业间的分化可能比指数本身更值得关注，高 估值科技板块与利率敏感板块的波动仍然不小。 保留灵活度：在多组关键数据即将公布前，控制仓位，避免情绪化重仓。 事件型机会：重点关 ...

Core Insights - The transition from "stocks rise, bonds fall" to "stocks fall, bonds do not rise" reflects the disparity in asset trends, indicating a lack of strong bullish drivers in the bond market while the equity market focuses on restoring investor confidence [1][3][11] - The bond market has seen a rebound from low levels, but the momentum for further increases is weak due to limited expectations for monetary policy easing and a generally low investor sentiment after a year of significant volatility [1][3][14] - The equity market, despite the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, lacks strong trading logic to support its rise, leading to pressure from high absolute index levels and recent volatility in overseas markets [1][3][14] Understanding U.S. Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between employment and inflation, with mixed signals from the labor market suggesting that a significant recession is not imminent, which may not justify a rate cut in December [2][15][16] - The absence of key labor data due to government shutdowns means the Fed may adopt a cautious stance, waiting for clearer signals before making decisions on rate cuts [2][18][22] - The fluctuation in rate cut expectations has impacted global asset pricing, with the potential for volatility in the rate cut timeline, although the overall direction towards easing remains unchanged [2][22] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market currently lacks a clear bullish trading narrative, making it susceptible to profit-taking after minor gains, with the potential for a breakout dependent on consistent bullish signals from policy or market trends [3][26] - Investor sentiment in the equity market is low due to ongoing declines, emphasizing the need to restore confidence to avoid a downward spiral in market perceptions [3][26]

Core Insights - The Chinese wealth management market is experiencing significant growth, with increasing importance in the global landscape, necessitating a reevaluation of asset allocation strategies in light of geopolitical and economic changes [1] - UBS Wealth Management's China head, Lu Zijie, emphasizes the need for a diversified asset portfolio that balances returns and liquidity, particularly in the context of rising gold prices and alternative investment opportunities [1] Investment Strategy - High-net-worth clients in China prioritize asset stability, often preferring cash holdings due to market risk aversion; however, low interest rates make cash savings insufficient against inflation [2] - Asset allocation should focus on risk control while enhancing overall return potential; for conservative clients, medium to long-term bonds are recommended as they typically yield higher returns than cash deposits [2] - UBS remains optimistic about stock investments but advises careful timing and sector selection due to significant market gains in the US, Hong Kong, and A-shares [2][3] Sector Preferences - In the US, UBS favors sectors with strong fundamentals such as healthcare and banking, while in Europe, high-dividend assets like REITs are preferred; in Asia, technology and AI sectors in Hong Kong and high-performing companies in mainland China are highlighted [3] - The recommended stock allocation for Chinese clients is around 25% to maintain stable growth without excessive market volatility [3] Alternative Investments - Family offices are increasing their allocation to alternative investments, rising from single-digit percentages to 14%-15%, which enhances portfolio stability despite lower liquidity [4] - Gold is viewed as a long-term investment rather than a short-term speculation, with central banks expected to maintain significant gold purchases, projected at 900-950 tons in 2025 [5] Art Investment - Art collection is evolving from a passion to a significant aspect of family legacy and value expression, with high-net-worth individuals expected to allocate 20% of their wealth to art by 2025, up from 15% in 2024 [6] - The Chinese ultra-high-net-worth demographic leads in art investment, with an average allocation of 44% of their wealth to art, reflecting a strong cultural and emotional connection to their collections [6] UBS's Wealth Management Position - UBS has a long-standing history in wealth management, with global investment assets totaling $6.9 trillion and $4.7 trillion specifically in wealth management, making it the largest in Asia [7] - The firm aims to assist clients in achieving liquidity, longevity, and legacy through differentiated services tailored to high-net-worth individuals in China [7][8] - UBS's integrated banking model enhances its ability to serve the Greater Bay Area, leveraging its extensive experience in Hong Kong and connections with Shenzhen and Guangzhou [8][9]

在进入到2025年之后，很多学者都在喊通胀就要来了，手里有大量现金的人将难以入眠。主要理由是，我国央行货币超发严重。截至2025年11月，中国M2 （广义货币供应量）余额为335.13万亿元，M2规模是GDP的2倍。但实际上，现在国内经济仍处于通缩的周期。资料显示，2025年10月份，全国居民消费价 格同比上涨0.2%。而事实上，10月份是受到国庆长假消费需求回升的影响，物价才勉强由负转正。 当前国内经济之所以仍处于通缩周期的原因主要有两个：一方面，大量的超发货币都在金融体系内空转，并没有流向社会，这就导致商品市场的价格一直呈 现"相对稳定"的状态。另一方面，现在很多居民收入增长放缓，这就导致消费市场需求萎缩，企业大量库存出现滞销。为了能够去库存，及时回笼资金，不 少企业只能选择降价促销的方式。 而面对当前国内通缩的经济形势，有业内人士提出：2025年，现在手握大量现金的人要偷笑了。让我们一起来分析一下： 第一，手里的钱越来越值钱了 现在手里有大量现金的人突然发现，自己手里的钱越来越值钱了。之前猪肉的价格还在25元/斤，现在已经跌到了17-18元/斤。之前购买一款新能源汽车的价 格是22万，现在已经跌到了18 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Nature and Importance - The essence of interest rates is the return on capital, influenced by time value and risk compensation[9] - A reasonable interest rate comparison is essential for effective resource allocation and monetary policy transmission[12] - Historical examples of unreasonable interest rate comparisons include deposit rates exceeding loan rates and abnormal yield curves in bond markets[13] Group 2: Central Bank's Focus on Interest Rate Relationships - The central bank emphasizes five key relationships to enhance monetary policy transmission: policy rates vs market rates, asset vs liability rates, different asset yields, term structure of rates, and risk-adjusted rates[36] - The central bank aims to transition from quantity-based to price-based monetary policy, improving transmission efficiency and directing resources to the real economy[39] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Rate Comparisons - Investors should consider interest rate comparisons to assess asset allocation value and attractiveness[40] - Significant differences between stock dividend yields and government bond yields can indicate undervaluation of equities[43] - Low rental yields in real estate compared to risk-free rates suggest a lack of attractiveness for property investments[26] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations, global interest rate trends deviating from forecasts, and unexpected geopolitical risks[46]