Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Crude Oil - Oil prices are likely to loosen significantly but difficult to form a strong trend. Short - term can be treated with a bearish mindset, with WTI running in the range of [64, 67], Brent in [65, 69], and SC in [480, 520]. Pay attention to the opportunity of the monthly spread declining in the arbitrage end, and capture the opportunity of increased volatility in the options end [2]. Methanol - The inland market has limited short - term decline space supported by centralized maintenance in July. The port market faces dual pressures: the expected import in July reaches 1.2 million tons, and the planned maintenance of coastal MTO will weaken olefin demand, with the port expected to turn to slight inventory accumulation in July [5]. Urea - The short - term core driver comes from the emotional resonance of macro - policies and export expectations. The disk still has room to rise above 10,000 but is restricted by demand - side support [7][8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - Both PP and PE show a supply contraction trend. The cost side has more valuation repair, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still an overall pressure. Short - term, pay attention to the support brought by de - stocking, and for PP, it is recommended to opportunistically arrange short positions when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [12]. Styrene - The supply of styrene is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening at the margin, and the port inventory is continuously increasing. The basis has dropped significantly. The short - term supply - demand expectation of styrene is weak, and the cost - side support is limited, so it is expected to gradually face pressure [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The short - term is under pressure, but considering the downstream PTA device production in August, the PXN downward space is limited, and the absolute price may fluctuate with oil prices, showing a short - term shock and a medium - term weakening trend [37]. - **PTA**: The short - term absolute price is under pressure, and it is recommended to be bearish when above 4800, conduct TA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and short the PTA processing fee at high levels [37]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand is gradually turning to looseness, and the price is under pressure in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure at 4400 for EG09 and conduct EG9 - 1 reverse arbitrage at high levels [37]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the absolute price fluctuates weakly with raw materials. It is recommended to operate in the 6350 - 6650 range for PF08 and expand the processing fee at low levels [37]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply has an improvement expectation, and the absolute price follows the cost side. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA, conduct PR8 - 9 positive arbitrage at low levels, and expand the processing fee at the lower edge of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 7, Brent was at $67.78/barrel, down $0.52 or - 0.76% from July 3; WTI was at $65.98/barrel, down $1.02 or - 1.52%. The spreads such as Brent - WTI remained unchanged at 0.00%, while many monthly spreads and other spreads showed declines [2]. - **Driving Factors**: Supply expansion suppresses market sentiment, and the weakening of macro and geopolitical risk premiums reduces the disturbance to the market. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the actual increase from April - July is lower than the target. Demand - side inventory has increased, and the macro - situation has relatively eased [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 7, MA2601 closed at 2437, down 0.53% from July 3; MA2509 closed at 2399, down 0.62%. The MA91 spread decreased by 2 to - 38, with a change of 5.56% [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.14% to 35.228%, port inventory increased by 0.47% to 67.4 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.37% to 102.6 [5]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 3.19% to 75.61%, and some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde decreased, while some such as MTBE increased [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, the 01 - contract closed at 1702, up 0.18% from July 3; the 09 - contract closed at 1735, down 0.12%. The UR - MA main - contract spread was - 664, up 13 from July 3 [7]. - **Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 66 to 125,746, with a change of 0.05%, and the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 6830 to 135,833, with a change of - 4.79% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.03% to 19.68 million tons, and the factory - inventory decreased by 7.06% to 101.85 million tons on a weekly basis [7]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, L2601 closed at 7243, down 0.26% from July 3; L2509 closed at 7282, down 0.03%. The L2509 - 2601 spread increased by 17 to 39, with a change of 77.27% [12]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.19% to 43.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.55% to 57.0 million tons [12]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 3.95% to 79.5%, and PP device operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 79.3% [12]. Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, styrene East - China spot price was 7650, up 1.1% from July 3; EB futures 2508 closed at 7297, up 0.5%. The EB basis (08) increased by 45 to 353, with a change of 14.6% [31]. - **Inventory**: The East - China port inventory of styrene increased by 7.6% to 9.63 million tons from June 25 to July 2 [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The styrene operating rate increased by 0.8% to 74.5% from June 27 to July 4, while some downstream operating rates such as PS + EPS decreased [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, PTA East - China spot price was 4835, down 1.1% from July 3; TA futures 2509 closed at 4710, down 0.8%. The PX - naphtha spread decreased by 11 to 261, with a change of - 4.0% [37]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased by 12.4% to 54.5 million tons from June 23 to June 30 [37]. - **Operating Rates**: The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 77.7% from June 27 to July 4, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 66.5% [37].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market shows signs of slight recovery, with prices rebounding after reaching a low point, but downstream purchasing remains cautious, focusing on demand-based procurement [1][2]. Supply Side - Major northern manufacturers are steadily advancing their resumption plans, and with the onset of the flood season, some silicon plants in the southwest are also resuming operations, leading to an overall increase in production [1]. - New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, contributing to increased supply [1]. Demand Side - The operating load of organic silicon monomer plants has increased, but there is some inventory pressure, leading downstream to primarily engage in small-scale replenishment, resulting in a downward shift in overall transaction focus [1]. - There are no large-scale resumption plans from polysilicon companies, which means limited changes in demand for industrial silicon [1]. - Aluminum alloy companies are maintaining stable production and purchasing industrial silicon based on demand, leading to a slight overall increase in demand [1]. Cost Analysis - With the arrival of the flood season, electricity prices in the southwest have decreased, leading to a reduction in costs and further weakening cost support [1]. - Industrial silicon inventory remains high (over 900,000 tons), exerting significant pressure on industrial silicon prices [1]. Price Outlook - Although costs in the south are decreasing and lower cost support is weakening, current prices are already below cost, indicating limited space for further declines [2]. - While demand is increasing, supply is also rising, which limits the price support from demand increases, leading to expectations of price stability within a bottom range in the short term [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market shows signs of recovery with a slight rebound in prices, although downstream purchasing remains cautious and primarily based on demand [1][2] Supply Side - Major northern manufacturers are steadily advancing their resumption plans, and with the onset of the flood season, some silicon plants in the southwest are also resuming operations, leading to an overall increase in production [1] - New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, contributing to increased supply [1] Demand Side - The operating load of organic silicon monomer plants has increased, but there is some inventory pressure, leading downstream to primarily engage in small-scale replenishment [1] - There are no large-scale resumption plans from polysilicon companies, resulting in minimal changes in demand for industrial silicon [1] - Aluminum alloy companies are maintaining stable production and purchasing industrial silicon based on demand, leading to a slight overall increase in demand [1] Cost Analysis - With the arrival of the flood season, electricity prices in the southwest have decreased, further weakening cost support [1] - Industrial silicon inventory remains high (over 900,000 tons), exerting significant pressure on industrial silicon prices [1] Price Outlook - Although costs in the south are decreasing and lower cost support is weakening, current prices are already below cost, limiting further downside potential [2] - While demand is increasing, supply is also rising, which limits the price support from demand increases; prices are expected to remain in a bottom range of fluctuation in the short term [2]