上 市 公 司 纺织服饰 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 2025 年 05 月 18 日 欣贺股份 (003016) ——24 年业绩短期承压，25Q1 利润拐点显现 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 中性（下调） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 05 月 16 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 7.34 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 10.25/5.72 | | 市净率 | 1.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.13 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 3,075 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,367.46/10,179.60 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.21 | | 资产负债率% | 20.64 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 429/419 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 05-16 06-16 07- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in annual performance despite a revenue decline of 16% year-on-year in 2024, with projected revenue of 2.22 billion yuan and a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 39% year-on-year [1] - The company has a strong cash dividend plan, proposing a total cash dividend of 235 million yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 78% [1] - The company is recognized as a leading player in the mid-to-high-end women's clothing sector, with excellent product design and supply chain management capabilities [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 2.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 16% and a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 39% [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to increase by 0.4 percentage points to 74.8%, while the net profit margin is projected to decrease by 5.0 percentage points to 13.7% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 480 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11%, and a net profit of 80 million yuan, down 25% [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved by 0.8 percentage points to 76.3% [2] Brand and Channel Performance - The company's core brands, including DA, DM, DZ, and RA, experienced revenue declines of 18%, 18%, 13%, and 12% respectively in 2024, but the decline has narrowed in Q1 2025 [3] - Online sales for 2024 were 368 million yuan, down 7% year-on-year, but showed a positive growth of 10% in Q1 2025 [4] - The company is undergoing adjustments in its store count, with a reduction in the number of stores for its core brands, indicating a strategic realignment [3][4] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - The company's inventory at the end of 2024 was 420 million yuan, showing an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 inventory remained stable at 420 million yuan [5] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 400 million yuan, approximately 1.3 times the net profit for the same period [5] - The company is expected to maintain normal operational management, with a focus on monitoring future sales performance [5]