证券研究报告 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 8 月 | 26 日│中国内地 | | 饮料 | 目标价(人民币): | 59.02 | | 公司发布 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利 | 2025 年半年报，25H1 | | 31.6/11.3/10.9 | 龚源月 | 研究员 | | 亿，同比 25Q2 /归母净利 | -16.9%/-18.2%/-19.9% ； | 总 营 收 | /扣 非 净 利 | SAC No. S0570520100001 SFC No. BQL737 | gongyuanyue@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 年上半年中高档酒业绩表 11.1/3.0/2.8 亿，同比-24.1%/-35.2%/-40.2%。25 | | | | | | | | | | | 宋英男 | 研究员 | 迎驾贡酒 (603198 CH) Q2 需求承压，省内经营更优 2025 年 8 月 26 日│中国内地 饮料 SAC No. S05705 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 60.12 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB for 2024, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.59 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year. However, the Q1 2025 performance was below expectations due to intensified competition and weaker sales in the liquor market [1][4]. - The company is focusing on the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, particularly the "洞藏" series, which has seen a 13.8% increase in sales revenue for 2024. The strategy includes strengthening the domestic market while gradually expanding into external markets [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 73.9% in 2024, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades. The net profit margin also increased to 35.3% in 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The net profit was 2.59 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.4% increase. However, Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 revenue dropped by 12.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor sales accounted for 87.7% of its liquor business revenue, with a notable increase in the "洞藏" series [2]. Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "Cultural Welcoming" strategy, focusing on the mid-to-high-end "洞藏" series and enhancing its market presence in Anhui while expanding into other provinces [1][4]. - The number of distributors increased to 1,377, with 751 in the domestic market and 626 in external markets, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen channel infrastructure [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.9%, and it improved to 76.5% in Q1 2025. The net profit margin also saw an increase to 40.5% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.34 RMB, with a target price based on a 18x PE ratio, leading to a target price of 60.12 RMB [4][6].