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工业硅、多晶硅日评:高位整理-20250829
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 01:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon price has retreated and adjusted due to the cooling of sentiment and the hedging pressure above the market, but the bullish sentiment has been fluctuating recently. It is expected that the silicon price will remain in a high - level consolidation. For polysilicon, the price has been rising since the end of June due to supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases. Although the sentiment has faded recently, it still fluctuates. The price is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation with large market fluctuations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,100 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 0.52% to 9,500 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 0.53% to 8,570 yuan/ton. The price of oxygenated 553 in some regions decreased slightly, while the prices of 421 in some regions remained unchanged [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, as the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, it has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, with a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plant enterprises have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased, and the price may be under pressure again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] Polysilicon Price Information - The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged, while the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.00% to 49,665 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons month - on - month. On the demand side, according to the current latest silicon material price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. For battery cells, some enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The terminal's acceptance of high prices is low, and the overseas component export tax - refund stockpiling is basically completed, so the components continue to weaken [1] Other Information - Sany Silicon Energy's first micro - grid project in West Africa's Guinea, the Santa Peak micro - grid project, has reached an important stage. The first - phase project uses a combination of 3MWp photovoltaics + 3MW/9MWh energy storage and transforms the original diesel - generator system into a backup, constructing a comprehensive energy system integrating photovoltaics, energy storage, and diesel - generators [1] - With the increase in the demand for 210 and 210R component sizes, the supply of glass in relevant sizes is tight. In September, glass enterprises will introduce a new price - difference mechanism for 210 and 210R sizes, with a price increase of 1 yuan/square meter on the basis of the current 2.0mm benchmark quotation, and the current quotation is 14 yuan/square meter [1]