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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250710
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 01:33
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. It provides trend judgments and fundamental data for each commodity, with most commodities showing wide - range oscillations or oscillating strongly due to factors such as macro - sentiment disturbances, news events, and changes in supply and demand [2][4][8]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Judgment**: Expected to be volatile with wide fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures closed at 736.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.48%. Spot prices of different grades showed varying degrees of increase. The trend strength is - 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend Judgment**: Subject to macro - sentiment disturbances and expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.07%; hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,190 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.09%. There were changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand in late June and early July. The trend strength for both is 0 [8][10][11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Judgment**: Affected by macro - sentiment and expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts had different changes. Spot prices also showed some adjustments. The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 1 [12][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Judgment**: Coke is expected to oscillate strongly; coking coal is affected by news and also expected to oscillate strongly [2][15][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: JM2509 of coking coal closed at 871.5 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 3.32%; J2509 of coke closed at 1456 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan or 2.21%. There were changes in spot prices and positions. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [16][18]. Thermal Coal - **Trend Judgment**: With the recovery of daily consumption, it is expected to stabilize with oscillations [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. There are quotes for domestic and foreign trade coal, and the trend strength is 0 [21][22][23]. Logs - **Trend Judgment**: Due to the change of the main contract, it is expected to have wide - range oscillations [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts. Spot prices of different types of logs were relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [24][26].