2026年02月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：地产预期回暖，矿价反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：地产情绪扰动，板块低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：地产情绪扰动，板块低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：上游报价坚挺，短期煤价表现偏强 | 9 | | 原木：地产预期回暖，震荡偏强 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 26 日 铁矿石：地产预期回暖，矿价反弹 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 12.0 | 1.62% | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound of lithium carbonate futures, following a significant correction, indicates a shift in market logic from macroeconomic sentiment to fundamental drivers [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - In January, lithium carbonate production saw a slight month-on-month decline, with February's supply contraction exceeding market expectations, as domestic production was reported at 88,300 tons, down 8.2% [2] - The supply contraction is characterized by both proactive maintenance and passive bottlenecks, with significant reductions in production from Sichuan and Jiangxi due to seasonal maintenance and environmental review delays [2] - The recovery progress of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is severely lagging, impacting supply flexibility for the first half of 2026, while Australian lithium projects are also not meeting recovery expectations [2] Group 2: Demand Trends - Despite the seasonal downturn, the demand for lithium remains robust, driven by improved export tax rebate policies for lithium batteries, leading to a notable "not-so-dull" demand characteristic [6] - February production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 383,200 tons, down 5.48% month-on-month, while ternary cathode materials are projected to decline by 14.05% to 73,300 tons, indicating varying demand across material segments [6] - Market expectations for future demand are optimistic, with significant developments in energy storage policies and a push for battery exports ahead of tax changes, which are expected to boost lithium carbonate consumption [10] Group 3: Inventory and Market Structure - Lithium carbonate social inventory continues to decline, reaching 105,000 tons, a 26% reduction from the July 2025 peak, with a notable shift in inventory structure indicating reduced pressure from production to consumption [11] - The current inventory levels show a significant decrease in stocks at smelters and traders, while downstream material manufacturers have increased their inventories due to pre-holiday stockpiling [11] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, the balance sheet for February and March may shift from expected inventory reduction to slight accumulation due to concentrated shipments from Chile, with uncertain purchasing rhythms post-holiday [12] - Mid-term expectations suggest that downstream production may recover to high levels in March, with potential price increases in April and May, supported by low inventory levels and ongoing policy benefits [12][13] - The equilibrium in supply and demand is likely to remain intact until the Jiangxi mine resumes production, with continued upward pressure on lithium carbonate prices anticipated [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the nickel market is experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors, with a recent increase in London nickel prices driven by a weaker US dollar and supply concerns [2][3] - London nickel futures closed at $18,520 per ton, up $80 from the previous trading day, reflecting a 0.43% increase, while domestic Shanghai nickel futures showed a decline, closing at 143,780 yuan per ton, down 1.34% [1][2] - The LME nickel inventory reported an increase of 132 tons, totaling 286,470 tons, indicating a slight rise in supply [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is cautious, influenced by recent volatility in global markets due to shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations, which have led to widespread asset price fluctuations [2] - The nickel market is characterized by a dual situation of "long-term tight expectations" and "short-term reality of looseness," with consensus on potential long-term reductions in Indonesian nickel production quotas providing price support [2][3] - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly stainless steel and new energy battery materials, has slowed significantly after a period of concentrated inventory buildup, leading to reduced purchasing activity [2][3] Group 3 - The industry is currently in a phase of observation and negotiation, with upstream producers attempting to maintain high prices while downstream acceptance of current price levels has decreased [3] - Major producers are performing steadily, benefiting from previous high prices and capacity releases, but are not aggressively expanding production to influence short-term supply-demand balance [3] - The current market sentiment is cooling, with both volume and price declining, as traders adjust quotes and downstream buyers limit purchases to essential needs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall supply of coking coal is becoming more abundant with the resumption of mines after the military parade - related restrictions, active customs clearance of Mongolian coal, and the arrival of overseas coal. The market is pessimistic about the future, with rumors of a second - round price cut for coke, leading to a decrease in coking enterprises' willingness to stockpile coking coal and a decline in spot prices [2]. - Although there is pressure to cut prices in the short term, coking enterprises have high enthusiasm to resume production after the lifting of restrictions, and the supply - demand gap for coke is narrowing. The high inventory of steel products needs time to be digested, and the weak reality will limit the rebound of coal - coke prices [2]. - In the long - term, "anti - involution" is the focus of the market in the second half of the year. The market's expectation has improved, and the willingness to hold goods has increased. Inventory transfer before the National Day may improve the supply - demand structure of coal - coke, so coking coal is not recommended as a short - position variety in the black market [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply side**: The supply of coking coal is increasing, with mines resuming production, high - level coal shipments, and strong import supply. Coking enterprises are cautious about replenishing coking coal due to the expected price cut of coke, resulting in poor sales and price loosening of coking coal [2][4]. - **Demand side**: The social inventory of five major steel products is accumulating against the season, and the immediate profit of steel products is deteriorating. The second - round price cut for coke has officially started. The total supply of steel products remains high, and high inventory needs time to be digested [2][4]. - **Future outlook**: There are still profits in most steel products except for rebar in the blast furnace process, and blast furnace plants are reluctant to cut production. After the military parade, some electric - arc furnace plants are resuming production, while others are reducing or stopping production due to losses. The downstream replenishment before the National Day, the Fourth Plenary Session in October, and the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline should be monitored [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. The oscillation range of JM2601 is 1060 - 1260, and that of J2601 is 1510 - 1750 [18]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Purchase cumulative options for JM2601 with an observation period of 30 days and a knock - in and knock - out range of (1075, 1275); short the coking profit on the futures market at an entry range of 01 coke/coking coal (1.5 - 1.55); conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread for coking coal at an entry point of (- 50, - 40) [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The price range of coking coal is 1060 - 1260, and that of coke is 1510 - 1750 [19]. - **Risk management strategies**: For inventory hedging, short the J2601 contract of coke; for procurement management, long the JM2605 contract of coking coal [20][22]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Supply and inventory data**: The production of coking coal and coke is generally increasing, while the inventory of coking coal is decreasing, and the inventory of coke is increasing [22]. - **Price data**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke have generally declined, and the import profits of some coal types have changed [23]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: There are policies indicating more active macro - policies and efforts to promote economic growth [26]. - **Negative information**: Steel mills have cut the price of coke, and the total inventory of steel products has increased, with high social inventory pressure [26][27]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor China's August social retail sales year - on - year and industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year on September 15th. Also, pay attention to the resumption progress of hot metal, the production - cut rhythm of electric - arc furnaces, the verification of peak - season demand, the inventory - accumulation speed of finished products, and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [27]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend**: The double - coke futures market is oscillating, with the 20 - day moving average forming pressure. The trading volume is shrinking, but the open interest of the main coking coal contract remains around 700,000 lots, indicating a large divergence between bulls and bears. The short - term lacks a clear directional driver [27]. - **Capital movement**: The net short - position of key coking coal seats first increased and then decreased, and there was a reduction in long - positions for coke, suggesting that the main capital is cautiously bearish but not overly pessimistic about the double - coke market [28]. - **Month - spread structure**: The coal - coke market shows a deep C - shaped structure, indicating high near - term pressure and support for far - month prices from the "anti - involution" expectation. There is no significant change in the month - spread this week [33]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of coking coal is mainly oscillating, and the basis of coke has narrowed due to the implementation of the spot price cut. There is no definite spot - futures positive - spread opportunity in the short term [39]. - **Spread structure**: The coking profit on the futures market continues to fluctuate at a low level. The strategy of shorting the coking profit on the futures market at high prices is maintained [42]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking - The first - round price cut for coke has been fully implemented, the cost of coal for coking has slightly decreased, and the immediate coking profit has declined from a high level. The blast - furnace profit has slightly improved, but rebar in the blast - furnace process has serious losses, and and and electric - furnace, and the electric - arc furnace is in a serious loss situation [44]. - The second - round price cut for coke started on September 12th and is expected to be implemented next week, and the immediate coking profit is expected to continue to shrink [44]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of Mongolian coal has recovered since June, and the customs - clearance enthusiasm at ports has significantly increased, with the import of Mongolian coal expected to accelerate. Tracking the theoretical import profit of overseas coal can predict the coking coal import volume in the next month, and it is inferred that there will be some pressure on the arrival of coking coal [48][51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The production of coking coal is expected to increase, with an estimated weekly average output of 9.77 million tons next week and 9.8 million tons in the week of September 20th. The import volume of coking coal is also expected to rise, with a net import of about 9.85 million tons in August and a weekly average net import of about 2.2 - 2.23 million tons in September [67]. - The production of coke is expected to recover rapidly, with a weekly output of 7.95 million tons next week and 7.98 million tons in the week of September 20th [67]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - The daily average hot - metal output is expected to be 2.4 million tons next week, basically the same as this week [73]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **Coking coal**: After the lifting of restrictions, domestic mines are expected to resume production quickly. Coking coal maintains a tight supply - demand balance, with an immediate balance of 2.3803 million tons of hot - metal [75]. - **Coke**: The immediate coking profit is good, and coking enterprises have strong enthusiasm to resume production. The supply - demand gap is narrowing rapidly. The second - round price cut has been initiated, and the spot price of coke is still under pressure in the short term, but downstream replenishment before the National Day provides some support, making the third - round price cut more difficult [75].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Under the lingering macro - sentiment, the price of SHFE zinc continues to oscillate strongly, but lacks fundamental support. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low. The supply - side increment expectation remains unchanged, and the consumption side is difficult to match the high growth of the supply side. The overseas inventory has a risk of delivery, and the domestic social inventory shows a trend of accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. After the emotional disturbance, the oversupply pattern may dominate the price trend again [3] 3. Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is - $1.72/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 22,780 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 22,740 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On July 22, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,880 yuan/ton and closed at 22,945 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 184,578 lots, a decrease of 66,827 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 134,060 lots, an increase of 746 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,985 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 22,760 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 92,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 22, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 116,600 tons, a decrease of 1,625 tons from the previous trading day [2] 4. Market Analysis - Cost side: With the zinc ore import window closed, the import volume in June increased by 3.2% year - on - year, the imported ore TC continued to rise, the smelting profit was maintained, and the supply - side increment expectation remained unchanged. The smelters had sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for ore procurement. - Consumption side: Although the downstream operating rate showed relative resilience and the overall consumption was not bad, it was difficult to match the high growth of the supply side. The overseas inventory had a risk of delivery, and the domestic social inventory showed a trend of accumulation, which was expected to continue in the second half of the year [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. It provides trend judgments and fundamental data for each commodity, with most commodities showing wide - range oscillations or oscillating strongly due to factors such as macro - sentiment disturbances, news events, and changes in supply and demand [2][4][8]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Judgment**: Expected to be volatile with wide fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures closed at 736.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.48%. Spot prices of different grades showed varying degrees of increase. The trend strength is - 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend Judgment**: Subject to macro - sentiment disturbances and expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.07%; hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,190 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.09%. There were changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand in late June and early July. The trend strength for both is 0 [8][10][11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Judgment**: Affected by macro - sentiment and expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts had different changes. Spot prices also showed some adjustments. The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 1 [12][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Judgment**: Coke is expected to oscillate strongly; coking coal is affected by news and also expected to oscillate strongly [2][15][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: JM2509 of coking coal closed at 871.5 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 3.32%; J2509 of coke closed at 1456 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan or 2.21%. There were changes in spot prices and positions. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [16][18]. Thermal Coal - **Trend Judgment**: With the recovery of daily consumption, it is expected to stabilize with oscillations [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. There are quotes for domestic and foreign trade coal, and the trend strength is 0 [21][22][23]. Logs - **Trend Judgment**: Due to the change of the main contract, it is expected to have wide - range oscillations [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts. Spot prices of different types of logs were relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [24][26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View of the Report - The manganese silicon market is subject to macro - sentiment disturbances and shows wide - range fluctuations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing price of SiFe2508 is 5326 (down 22 from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 12,560 and an open interest of 32,874; SiFe2509 has a closing price of 5288 (down 28), a trading volume of 151,170, and an open interest of 218,647. For manganese silicon, MnSi2508 has a closing price of 5550 (down 52), a trading volume of 27,811, and an open interest of 24,513; MnSi2509 has a closing price of 5556 (down 54), a trading volume of 364,607, and an open interest of 405,076 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia is 5100 yuan/ton; the price of silicon manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia is 5500 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) is 37.0 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu is 580 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of silicon iron (spot - 08 futures) is - 226 yuan/ton (up 22); that of manganese silicon (spot - 09 futures) is - 56 yuan/ton (up 54). The near - far month price difference of silicon iron (2508 - 2509) is 38 yuan/ton (up 6); that of manganese silicon (2508 - 2509) is - 12 yuan/ton (up 2). The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2508 - silicon iron 2508 is 224 yuan/ton (down 30); that of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 is 268 yuan/ton (down 26) [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On June 24, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was as follows: Shaanxi 5000 - 5100, Ningxia 5100 - 5150 (down 50), Qinghai 5050 - 5200, Gansu 5050 - 5150, Inner Mongolia 5100 - 5150; 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5600 - 5650, Ningxia 5550 - 5650, Qinghai 5550 - 5600, Gansu 5700 - 5750, Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1000 - 1030 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1080 - 1110 dollars/ton. The northern price of 6517 silicon manganese was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton, and the southern price was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton due to tight supply [1] - Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the silicon iron purchase price at 5480 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a purchase volume of 600 tons [1] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series" dated June 16, 2025, covering various commodities in the black series including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides trend forecasts for multiple black series commodities, suggesting that most are in a state of wide - range oscillation or repeated fluctuations. For example, iron ore is expected to have repeated expectations and trade in a range; rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and thermal coal are affected by factors such as macro - sentiment, steel tender quotes, and safety inspections, showing wide - range oscillations; logs are in a state of repeated fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 703.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (-0.14%); the previous day's position was 695,640 lots, a decrease of 21,059 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore decreased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 31, M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% year - on - year; M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.13 trillion yuan, up 12.1% year - on - year. Guangzhou proposed to optimize real estate policies [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 2,969 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.20%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,082 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.26%). Spot prices in different regions showed minor changes, and the basis and spreads also fluctuated [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 31, the stock of social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year - on - year. In May 2025, China's auto production and sales increased. In May, PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year; CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. In May, China's steel exports increased while imports decreased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts showed increases or decreases. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also had corresponding changes, and the basis, spreads between near - and far - month contracts, and cross - variety spreads all changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 13, prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. South Africa's Transnet reached a wage agreement. Extreme weather in South Africa may affect ore transportation. Hebei Iron and Steel Group finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon in June, and the inventory of manganese ore increased [12][13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Quotes of coking coal in northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index on June 13 were reported. On June 13, from the top 20 member positions in DCE, the long positions of coking coal JM2509 decreased, and the short positions increased; for coke J2509, both long and short positions increased [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [18]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading the previous day, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6 yuan/ton, a low of 840.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price. Quotes of southern port's foreign - trade thermal coal and domestic production areas were provided. On June 13, from the top 20 member positions in ZCE, neither long nor short positions of the ZC2507 contract changed [21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [23]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed certain fluctuations. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly stable, with only minor changes [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In May, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to continue its range - bound oscillation in the short term due to the loosening fundamentals and mixed macro - level factors [8]. - Steel prices will experience wide - range fluctuations due to macro - sentiment disturbances, with steel demand peaking and negative feedback pressure intensifying [68]. - The alloy market will show an oscillating trend due to the game between macro - drivers and fundamentals, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and steel production rhythms [128][129]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Australian shipments are rising, with BHP and Fortescue having strong end - of - fiscal - year impulse, strengthening the expectation of loose supply. Non - mainstream mines in Peru have not fully recovered, and domestic mines in Southwest and North China have reduced production due to inspections [7][8][20][32]. - **Demand**: Although the decline of hot metal is slow, port throughput has dropped rapidly, and the production of five major steel products has decreased steeply, indicating a possible change in the strong - reality situation. The substitution effect of scrap steel is relatively neutral [8][38][39]. - **Inventory**: The inflection point of inventory accumulation has emerged [43][45]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices are in narrow - range oscillation, spot prices are weak, the medium - low grade spread is narrowing, the 9 - 1 spread has narrowed, and the basis has converged [10][15][53][57][60]. 3.2 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand of various steel products are generally declining. For rebar, new - home sales are low, and demand is seasonally weak. For hot - rolled coil, demand is weakening both domestically and in exports [67][79][83][100][103][104]. - **Inventory**: For rebar, the de - stocking of steel mills has slowed down. For hot - rolled coil, inventory has slightly accumulated [85][107]. - **Profit**: The spot and futures profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil have different trends, and there is still room for the compression of the futures profit [93][113]. - **Spread**: There are opportunities for reverse spreads in the off - season for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [75][95]. 3.3 Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Supply**: Silicon iron supply has slightly decreased, while manganese silicon supply has continued to rebound, with obvious production increases in Ningxia [130][140]. - **Demand**: Demand is gradually peaking. Steel mill inventory days are decreasing, and the demand for silicon iron in steelmaking is shrinking, but non - steel demand shows different trends [130][153]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [130]. - **Price and Profit**: Futures prices show different trends, with silicon iron rebounding slightly and manganese silicon oscillating. Spot prices are weak, and both spot and futures profits are under pressure [134][135].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment disturbances. The rise in oil prices is negative for US inflation data, strengthening the risk of a hard landing, but there is support for energy commodities. The demand for steel in the black industry chain is gradually peaking, and the negative feedback pressure is intensifying. [3][5] Summary by Directory 01. Rebar Fundamental Data Rebar Basis and Spread - In the off - season, pay attention to the spread reversal opportunity. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3080 (-40) yuan/ton, the main - contract futures price was 2969 (-6) yuan/ton, the main - contract basis was 111 (-34) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 1 (-3) yuan/ton. [12][16] Rebar Demand - New - home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Although second - hand home sales remain high, reflecting rigid demand, land transaction area also stays low. With the arrival of the off - season, rebar demand shows a seasonal decline. [17][20][21] Rebar Inventory - The destocking of steel - mill inventory is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active destocking. [23][25] Rebar Production Profit - There is still room to compress the paper profit. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 184 (-7) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 304 (+5) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was - 40 (-65) yuan/ton. [27][31] 02. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data Hot - Rolled Coil Basis and Spread - In the off - season, pay attention to the spread reversal opportunity. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3180 (-20) yuan/ton, the main - contract futures price was 3082 (-10) yuan/ton, the main - contract basis was 98 (-10) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 2 (-3) yuan/ton. [33][37] Hot - Rolled Coil Demand - The demand for hot - rolled coils has weakened month - on - month. The US has announced additional tariffs on steel household appliances, and the white - goods production has entered the seasonal off - season. The rhythm of export rush has slowed down, and steel exports have declined step by step. [38][41] Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The demand has weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. [45] Hot - Rolled Coil Production - Steel mills maintain high production levels. [46] Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit - There is still room to compress the paper profit. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 101 (+13) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 267 (+1) yuan/ton. [48][51] Variety Spread Structure - The report presents the spread data of Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - coil spread, Hangzhou wire - rebar spread, Hangzhou rebar - billet spread, and Shanghai galvanized - cold - rolled spread over the years. [52][53][58] Cold - Rolled and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled and medium - plate total inventory, production, and apparent consumption over the years. [61][62]