1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: There are expectations of a缓和 in negotiations, leading to a decline in ore prices [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: They are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost expectations are slightly rising, and bullish sentiment is high [2]. - Silicomanganese: Affected by energy information, it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke: A round of price increase is expected to be implemented this week, with wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Coking coal: It will have wide - range fluctuations [2][16]. - Steam coal: Sentiment has weakened, and there is short - term callback pressure [2][19]. - Logs: The near - term prices are stronger than the long - term, and the positive spread is widening [2][21]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 813.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton (0.12%); the position was 371,421 hands, a decrease of 15,823 hands. The prices of various iron ore grades showed different changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Previous structural contradictions drove iron ore prices up. Recently, there are expectations of a缓和 in negotiations, and the driving force is expected to weaken. The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, with GDP growth adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0%. The 247 steel enterprises' daily hot metal output increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,139 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.58%); the trading volume was 616,755 hands, and the position was 976,441 hands, a decrease of 99,718 hands. For HC2605, the closing price was 3,308 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.33%); the trading volume was 283,214 hands, and the position was 846,816 hands, a decrease of 72,722 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed small increases [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China's steel exports increased in volume and price, while imports decreased. Steel production and inventory data showed different trends in March. Diplomatic efforts were made to promote peace talks. Steel production and inventory data of key enterprises in March showed various changes. Real estate investment decreased, while industrial added value and fixed - asset investment increased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: For ferrosilicon 2605, the closing price was 6066 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2607, it was 6190 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese 2605, the closing price was 6588 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; for silicomanganese 2607, it was 6632 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Manganese ore inventory in ports changed. Some silicon - iron plants had equipment maintenance and复产. The output and capacity utilization of silicon - iron enterprises in different regions changed. A mining company raised its offer price. Some steel mills had procurement plans [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: For JM2605, the closing price was 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.4%); for J2605, it was 1753.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan (0.1%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had little change [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: CCI metallurgical coal index prices remained stable. The coking coal online auction had a 7% failure rate, and prices mostly declined due to the cost pressure on coke enterprises [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of steam coal in different regions and ports showed different changes, and the overseas prices also had fluctuations. The long - term agreement prices in March increased slightly [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 30, the port market sentiment weakened, with upstream quotes slightly decreasing and downstream demand weak. In January - February 2026, the national raw coal output decreased slightly [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [20]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had changes, and the spreads between contracts and between spot and futures changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 2026 government work report aimed to stabilize expectations, with GDP growth adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0% [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to decline due to the easing expectation of negotiations [2][4]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][8]. - The silicon ferroalloy spot performance is dull due to sector sentiment disturbances, while the manganese silicon has high bullish sentiment due to energy information disturbances [2][12]. - The first - round price increase of coke this week is expected to be implemented, with wide - range fluctuations; coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16]. - The log market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with the positive spread widening [2][20] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 812.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton or 0.61%. The open interest decreased by 20,782 to 387,244 hands [4]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore and most domestic ore prices declined, with some domestic ore prices remaining stable [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: Most basis and spreads decreased [4]. - **News**: Previous structural contradictions drove the iron ore price up, but recent negotiation easing expectations led to a weakening of the upward momentum [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 decreased, with open interest also decreasing [8]. - **Spot Price**: Some spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, while some remained stable. The billet price remained unchanged [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of rebar increased, and that of hot - rolled coil also increased. Some spreads changed [8]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed in the week of March 26. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased in early March, and production data showed a decline [9][10] Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon - **Futures Data**: The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon futures contracts changed, with trading volume and open interest varying [12]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of silicon ferroalloy decreased, and the price of manganese ore decreased. The price of silicon manganese increased [12]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon changed [12]. - **News**: There were price quotes, inventory updates, and production and procurement news in the ferroalloy market [12][14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [16]. - **Spot Price**: Some coking coal and coke prices remained stable, while some decreased [16]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke changed [16]. - **News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index was released, and the coking coal auction showed certain characteristics [16] Log - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed, with different trends for different contracts [20]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of most log and wood square products remained stable, with only slight changes in a few prices [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of log futures changed [20]. - **News**: The government work report aimed at stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms, with GDP growth target adjustment and an increase in policy - based financial tools [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation, and there are uncertainties in various sectors, with different trends and investment suggestions for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw all - round gains in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum is weak. The yield is at a relatively low level, and there is pressure in the later market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The asset valuation is low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The global economic situation is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inflation expectations are rising. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper contract declined. The supply shortage logic is still strong, but the macro - environment suppresses prices. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak shock with a bottom [56]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum contract rose, and the alumina contract declined. The alumina supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the electrolytic aluminum price may be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [58]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc contract rose. The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, but the consumption is affected by the real - estate sector. The zinc price may be under pressure [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead contract declined. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price may be weakly volatile [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin contract declined. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The tin price has support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [65]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel contract declined. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [66]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC net long position increased, but the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market changed. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The current main contradiction is cost - driven, and the short - term price may maintain a strong shock [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber contract rose. The market is in a game between multiple and short factors, and the short - term is in a wide - range shock [30]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract declined. The market is in a game between cost support and high inventory. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is restricted [32]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract rose. The current contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is weakly volatile, and the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are repaired, and the price may be in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate carefully [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The supply increases, and the downstream reduces production. The short - term is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to operate carefully [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply and demand are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price needs to be treated carefully [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increases, and the demand weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and device dynamics [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals change little, and it is recommended to participate carefully [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is general, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate [45]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract declined. The production line is shrinking, the inventory removal slows down, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract declined. The supply decreases slightly, the inventory does not decrease significantly, and the price is affected by exports [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the paper - pulp contract declined. The inventory accumulates, and the demand is weak, restricting the rebound height [52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil contracts rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rebounded. The export data is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil contracts changed. The market is waiting for relevant announcements and paying attention to the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the domestic cotton contract oscillated. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The medium - long - term price has support, but the short - term is affected by the quota issuance [72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the domestic sugar contract oscillated. The international situation is favorable, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term price has a bottom support [74]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract oscillated. With the Qingming Festival approaching, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong [76]. - **Pork**: The previous trading day, the pork contract declined. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The supply is improving, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn contract declined, and the corn - starch contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand recovers slightly [80]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The inventory decreases, the downstream demand improves, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.35% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, rebar demand is continuously improving, while supply is weakly stable. The fundamentals are seasonally improving, and strong raw materials provide cost support, pushing the steel price back to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, the strength of demand improvement is uncertain, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The main contract price fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.45% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, the demand for hot-rolled coils has recovered well. Under the situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals have improved, and strong raw materials provide cost support, pushing the price back to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, demand concerns remain, and the upward driving force is weakening under the high inventory situation. The subsequent trend is expected to continue the oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price oscillated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.18% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, energy shortages have raised concerns about overseas mine production, and supply disruptions support the high - level operation of ore prices. However, the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed substantially, and the overvalued ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the steel price performance and Australian ore shipments [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Transportation Investment**: From January to February, China's highway and waterway fixed - asset investment was 272.928 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. Among them, highway construction investment was 244.933 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%, and waterway construction investment was 27.995 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% [7]. - **Air - conditioner Market**: In the first quarter of 2026, after a short - lived "spring" of policy stimulus and consumption recovery at the beginning of the year, the air - conditioner market failed to continue the recovery trend. In February, the retail volume of air - conditioners was 2.33 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 25.3%, and the retail sales were 7.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7%. The latest production scheduling data shows that in April 2026, the total domestic air - conditioner production scheduling decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, with the domestic sales production scheduling decreasing by 6.8% year - on - year, and exports also decreasing by 12.6% year - on - year under multiple factors [8]. - **Steel Production**: In mid - March 2026, key steel enterprises produced 20.27 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.027 million tons, a 0.8% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 181,400 tons, a 0.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.84 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 198,400 tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.91 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous ten - day period [9]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was priced at 3,190 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; the national average was 3,333 yuan, down 4 yuan. Hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,240 yuan, unchanged; the national average was 3,329 yuan, down 1 yuan. Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,980 yuan, unchanged, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,190 yuan, unchanged. The hot - rolled coil - rebar price difference was 100 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,000 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: PB fines at Shandong ports were priced at 788 yuan, up 3 yuan; Tangshan iron concentrate (wet - based) was 772 yuan, up 5 yuan. Ocean freight from Australia was 10.85 yuan, down 0.64 yuan; from Brazil was 30.03 yuan, down 0.24 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.98 yuan, down 0.62 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 106.50 yuan, down 2.20 yuan [10]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The active contract closed at 3,128 yuan, a decrease of 0.35%. The highest price was 3,138 yuan, and the lowest was 3,125 yuan. The trading volume was 406,440 lots, a decrease of 187,168 lots, and the open interest was 1,167,209 lots, a decrease of 40,108 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The active contract closed at 3,305 yuan, a decrease of 0.45%. The highest price was 3,320 yuan, and the lowest was 3,301 yuan. The trading volume was 214,049 lots, a decrease of 88,281 lots, and the open interest was 962,265 lots, a decrease of 40,839 lots [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The active contract closed at 817.0 yuan, an increase of 0.18%. The highest price was 823.0 yuan, and the lowest was 808.0 yuan. The trading volume was 216,414 lots, a decrease of 162,235 lots, and the open interest was 408,026 lots, a decrease of 6,288 lots [14]. 后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and inventory has been continuously reduced. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 54,600 tons month - on - month, and supply has shrunk. However, the profit per ton of the product is acceptable, and its sustainability needs to be monitored. At the same time, rebar demand has continued to improve seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 172,800 tons month - on - month, slightly higher than the same period last year. Other demand indicators are still average, and there is no substantial change in the downstream. The strength of future demand improvement is uncertain. The subsequent trend should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have continued to rise. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 54,000 tons month - on - month, and supply has continued to rise. The inventory level is still high, and the supply pressure has been relieved to a limited extent. At the same time, the demand for hot - rolled coils has good resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 31,200 tons month - on - month, but the high - frequency trading volume has declined from its peak. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level. Attention should be paid to the intensification of contradictions, and there are continuous overseas disturbances, and export performance is average. Demand concerns remain. The subsequent trend is expected to continue the oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Iron Ore**: There have been changes in both supply and demand. Steel mills have actively resumed production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded from a low level. Last week, the daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills both increased significantly month - on - month, in line with expectations. However, the improvement in steel mills' profitability is limited, and the contradictions in the steel market have not been resolved. The room for improvement in iron ore demand may be limited. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased slightly, and the shipments from overseas miners have continued to increase. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals are expected to be stable, and domestic ore production is recovering. Iron ore supply is increasing steadily. The subsequent trend is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the steel price performance and Australian ore shipments [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the HC2605 contract fluctuated weakly. The macro - situation shows that the US has sent proposals to end the war to Iran through friendly countries, and Iran is studying them. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 78.07%. Terminal demand continued to recover, and inventory declined again. Overall, terminal demand is resilient, and there is still support from the cost side, but the chaotic situation between the US and Iran affects market sentiment. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,305 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; HC main contract position is 962,265 lots, down 40,839 lots; HC contract top 20 net position is - 61,681 lots, up 156 lots; HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 8 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 537,279 tons, up 8,827 tons; HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 177 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou is 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan is 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged. HC main contract basis is 15 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 794 yuan/wet ton, down 1 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,990 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 17,102.67 tons, down 89.13 tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 52.35 tons, down 3.75 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 687.78 tons, up 0.16 tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 239.94 tons, down 9.59 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 79.80%, up 1.44%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.55%, up 2.65%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 tons, up 5.4 tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 78.07%, up 1.38%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 83.85 tons, down 1.11 tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 369.42 tons, down 6.91 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons; the steel net export volume is 747 tons, up 18 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile output is 167.24 tons, down 77.74 tons; the monthly automobile sales volume is 180.52 tons, down 54.13 tons. The monthly air - conditioner output is 2,162.89 tons, up 660.29 tons; the monthly household refrigerator output is 1,001.15 tons, up 56.95 tons; the monthly household washing machine output is 1,197.50 tons, down 3.80 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On March 26, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period is 305.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.4 tons; the factory inventory is 83.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 tons; the social inventory is 369.42 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 tons; the total inventory is 453.27 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.02 tons; the apparent demand is 313.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.12 tons. The Ministry of Commerce determined that Mexico's measures of raising import tariff rates on products from non - free - trade partners such as China constitute a trade and investment barrier [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market volatility of various assets is expected to increase due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation. Different investment strategies are recommended for different assets, such as being cautious for bonds, temporarily staying on the sidelines for stocks and precious metals, and considering short - selling opportunities for some commodities [5][9][11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bonds - **Performance**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury futures rose 0.01% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts were flat. As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity was 3.95 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [5]. - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the monetary policy is expected to be loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level, and there is still some pressure in the future market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures rose 1.61%, 0.81%, 2.17%, and 1.73% respectively. As of the end of February, the total scale of public funds reached 38.61 trillion yuan [7]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - **Performance**: The gold and silver futures rose 3.49% and 6.01% respectively. The European Central Bank is evaluating the impact of the Iranian war [11]. - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11][12]. 4. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and hot - rolled coil were 2980 yuan/ton, 3110 - 3230 yuan/ton, and 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton respectively [13][14]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The real estate industry is in a downward trend, but the market is entering the peak demand season. The supply pressure is reduced, and the inventory pressure is small. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - **Performance**: The iron ore futures fell significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 785 yuan/ton and 670 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The iron ore demand may increase, but the inventory is at a high level. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: The coking coal and coke futures fell significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand for coke is expected to expand. The price may continue to be strong, and investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities [18][19]. 7. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell 1.04% and 0.36% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20]. - **Outlook**: The cost is at a low level, and the supply is loose. The overall surplus pressure continues. After the short - term price rises, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [20][21]. 8. Crude Oil - **Performance**: The INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The CFTC data showed that speculators increased their net long positions. The number of oil and gas rigs decreased [22]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions indicates that the market is bullish on the future. However, the possible cease - fire between the US and Iran may lead to oil price fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23][24]. 9. Polyolefins - **Performance**: The PP and LLDPE prices in the market fell, and the market sentiment was cautious [24]. - **Outlook**: Due to the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the supply decreased. The demand was weak. The price is expected to fall, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [24][25]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: The synthetic rubber futures rose 4.27%. The price of butadiene decreased, and the inventory began to decline [26][27]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, oil price trends, and tire export orders [26][27][28]. 11. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: The natural rubber futures rose. The price of Thai glue was high, and the inventory continued to increase [29]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a state of long - short game, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [29][30]. 12. PVC - **Performance**: The PVC futures fell 4.58%. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased [31]. - **Outlook**: The cost support is strong, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes and demand recovery [31][32][33]. 13. Urea - **Performance**: The urea futures fell 0.32%. The spot price was stable [34]. - **Outlook**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to export policies and demand connection [34][35]. 14. PX - **Performance**: The PX futures fell 3.67%. The profit and spread decreased [36]. - **Outlook**: The short - term processing fee has room for repair. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [36][37]. 15. PTA - **Performance**: The PTA futures fell 3.09%. The processing fee was around 300 yuan/ton [38]. - **Outlook**: The supply decreased, and the demand was weak. The market is in a long - short game, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [38]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: The ethylene glycol futures fell 4.96%. The inventory increased [39]. - **Outlook**: The inventory may decrease, but the cost is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to negotiation progress and spring inspection [39]. 17. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: The short - fiber futures fell 2.94%. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [40]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [40]. 18. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: The bottle - chip futures fell 2.43%. The processing fee was around 1200 yuan/ton [41]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little. The processing fee is recovering, but the raw material price is uncertain. It is recommended to operate cautiously [41]. 19. Soda Ash - **Performance**: The soda ash futures rose 0.32%. The production increased, and the inventory decreased [42][43]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the price is expected to remain high and consolidate [43]. 20. Glass - **Performance**: The glass futures fell 0.94%. The production line decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly [46]. - **Outlook**: The cost support exists, and the market sentiment may fluctuate [46]. 21. Caustic Soda - **Performance**: The caustic soda futures fell 3.06%. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [47]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise due to export and cost factors. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and inventory changes [47][48]. 22. Pulp - **Performance**: The pulp futures rose 0.04%. The port inventory decreased, and the production increased [49]. - **Outlook**: The inventory decline supports the price, and the market sentiment is expected to stabilize [49]. 23. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures rose 4.34%. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped [50][51]. - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, and the demand is improving. The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [51]. 24. Copper - **Performance**: The copper futures rose 1.11%. The inflation expectations and geopolitical situation suppress the price, but the supply is tight, and the demand has a bottom [52]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with a bottom [52][53]. 25. Aluminum - **Performance**: The aluminum futures fell 0.13%, and the alumina futures fell 0.98%. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the inventory increases [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with support [55][56]. 26. Zinc - **Performance**: The zinc futures rose 0.35%. The supply increases, and the demand in the real estate sector is weak [57]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be under pressure [57][58]. 27. Lead - **Performance**: The lead futures fell 0.09%. The supply of primary lead increases, and the demand is weak [59][60]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [60][61]. 28. Tin - **Performance**: The tin futures rose 0.69%. The supply is tight, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong [62]. - **Outlook**: The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [62]. 29. Nickel - **Performance**: The nickel futures rose 1.33%. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is weak [63][64]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply is in surplus, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [63][64]. 30. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: The soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the demand for biodiesel is expected to increase [65]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see [65][66]. 31. Palm Oil - **Performance**: The palm oil price fell. The export increased, and the inventory is at a high level [67][68]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to consider closing long positions [67][68][69]. 32. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: The rapeseed futures rose. The import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal increased, and the inventory decreased [70]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 33. Cotton - **Performance**: The cotton futures fluctuated. The import increased, and the global cotton production is expected to decrease [72][73]. - **Outlook**: The long - term price has support, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance [73][74]. 34. Sugar - **Performance**: The domestic sugar futures fluctuated, and the international sugar futures fell. The domestic import increased, and the production is expected to increase [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The international situation is favorable for the price, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The long - term price has a bottom [76][77]. 35. Apple - **Performance**: The apple futures fluctuated. The inventory decreased, and the production is expected to decrease [78][79]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be stable and strong during the Qingming Festival, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory and weather [78][79]. 36. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The live - pig futures fell 0.55%. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [80]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [80]. 37. Eggs - **Performance**: The egg futures fell 0.06%. The production cost increased, and the inventory is at a high level [81][82]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. 38. Corn and Starch - **Performance**: The corn and starch futures fell. The inventory of North Port is low, and the demand is slightly improved [83][84]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. The starch may be slightly stronger than corn. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - term put options [84][85]. 39. Logs - **Performance**: The log futures fell 0.67%. The inventory decreased, and the demand improved [86][87]. - **Outlook**: The supply may shrink due to price and cost factors. The market is affected by the geopolitical situation [87][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries show different trends, and investors need to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to specific situations [5][8][10] - Some industries may face price fluctuations and uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [13][15][18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.52% to 111.240 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.02% to 108.165 yuan, the 5 - year main contract was flat at 105.915 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% to 102.478 yuan [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.41%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract rose 1.66%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 2.72%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract rose 3.09% [7] - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9] 3.3 Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 977.28 with a 3.97% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 17,085 with a 10.86% increase [10] - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [10][11] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,990 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,120 - 3,240 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,280 - 3,300 yuan/ton [12] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound but with limited space. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [13][14] 3.5 Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The PB powder port spot price was 795 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder spot price was 680 yuan/ton [15] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may support prices, but the impact may be limited. From a technical perspective, iron ore futures may rebound in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [15][16] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated at high levels [17] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. For coking coal, the supply may increase, and attention should be paid to the pressure. For coke, the supply is stable, and the increase in demand supports prices. From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [18][19] 3.7 Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.43% to 6,480 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.20% to 6,100 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price rose 80 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price rose 80 yuan/ton to 5,680 yuan/ton [20] - The cost of ferroalloys has limited downward space, and the overall oversupply pressure continues. The recent improvement in profitability in the main production areas weakens the cost support. The short - term surplus of silicon - iron may increase, and the inventory continues to accumulate [20] 3.8 Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the US delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and the possibility of negotiations between the US and Iran [21] - The increase in net long positions in CFTC futures and options shows that US funds are more optimistic about the future of crude oil. However, the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed, and the US and Iran may cease fire for a month for negotiations. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for INE crude oil [22][23] 3.9 Polyolefins - Last trading day, the Hangzhou PP market mostly declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE market also fell [24] - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure has increased, the futures fluctuate frequently, and the industry's operating rate has continued to decline. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for polyolefins [24][25] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.06%. The mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable at 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [26] - The current main contradiction is cost - driven. The short - term price may maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance in the second half of the month, the trend of crude oil prices, and changes in tire export orders [26][28] 3.11 Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.37%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 2.27%. The Shanghai spot price of whole - latex increased to around 16,300 yuan/ton [29] - The current core contradiction is the game between the increase in synthetic rubber cost and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the approaching domestic production area opening and slow demand recovery and inventory pressure. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and the price may maintain a wide - range oscillation [29][30] 3.12 PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell 4.41%, and the spot price in the East China region decreased by 250 yuan/ton [31] - The current core contradiction is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts, the start of domestic spring demand, and high inventory. In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price may oscillate strongly, but the upward space is restricted by high inventory. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength [31][33] 3.13 Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.06%, and the spot price in Shandong Linyi increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,880 yuan/ton [34] - The recent main contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price oscillates weakly, but the cost support and the arrival of the demand peak season limit the downward space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the export policy will be adjusted and the demand connection after April [34][35] 3.14 PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell 4.22%. The PX profit has dropped significantly, and the PXN spread has dropped to around 65 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread has dropped to around 88 US dollars/ton [36] - Affected by the supply concerns of upstream raw materials, domestic refineries have reduced their loads. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are continuously compressed, and the processing fee has room for repair. The PX price may oscillate widely in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [36][37] 3.15 PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 4.15%. The PTA processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton [38] - Affected by the shrinkage of raw material supply, PTA production cuts have increased. The cost support has collapsed recently. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and cautious operation is recommended, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and changes in crude oil prices [38] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 6.23%. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 66.45%, and the inventory in some main ports in East China has increased [39][40] - The short - term Strait passage has loosened, and the import is expected to shrink. The inventory may gradually decrease, and there is support below. The short - term geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and cautious treatment is required, paying attention to the negotiation progress and Strait situation [40] 3.17 Short Fibers - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fell 3.28%. The short - fiber device load has slightly decreased [41] - Recently, the short - fiber supply has declined, and the terminal factory inventory has decreased. The overall supply - demand has weakened slightly. The short - term still trades based on the cost logic. Attention should be paid to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and the resumption progress of downstream factories [41] 3.18 Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle - chip 2605 main contract fell 3.38%. The bottle - chip processing fee is adjusted to around 1,200 yuan/ton [42] - The supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much, and the processing fee continues to repair. The manufacturer's price - holding intention is relatively strong. Due to the changeable Middle East situation, the price fluctuations of crude oil and PTA may increase. Cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the geopolitical situation, device operation dynamics, and cost changes [42][43] 3.19 Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,240 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase [44] - The supply of soda ash remains high, the inventory has decreased to some extent, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The short - term price may oscillate steadily under emotional support [44] 3.20 Glass - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1,064 yuan/ton with a 1.12% decrease [45] - The glass production line continues to shrink, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and the downstream order recovery is slow. The cost support is still there, and the subsequent market sentiment may fluctuate [45][46] 3.21 Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,557 yuan/ton with a 1.27% decrease [47] - The supply of caustic soda has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also decreased. The price of alumina has risen, which supports the price of caustic soda. The 50% and 32% caustic soda prices are bifurcated. Attention should be paid to overseas device dynamics, export order implementation, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [47][48] 3.22 Pulp - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5,210 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase [49] - The port inventory of pulp continues to decrease, and the domestic supply has changed little. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The risk of needle - leaf pulp fluctuation is relatively large, and broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable with cost support [49] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 6.11% to 152,940 yuan/ton [50] - The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the demand in the consumer end is improving. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict [50] 3.24 Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,670 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase [51] - The inflation expectation has almost erased the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the global risk preference is suppressed. The supply of refined copper is at risk of contraction, and the demand has a solid bottom. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak oscillation with a bottom [51][52] 3.25 Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,810 yuan/ton with a 0.42% increase, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,962 yuan/ton with a 2.18% decrease [53] - Alumina shows a cost - driven passive rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The price of alumina may enter an oscillatory adjustment state, and the price of electrolytic aluminum may oscillate weakly, but there is support at the bottom [53][55] 3.26 Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,880 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease [56] - The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, and the domestic refined zinc production has increased. The real - estate sector may drag down the galvanizing field. The zinc price may be under pressure due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the strong - dollar logic [56][57] 3.27 Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,470 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [58] - The production of primary lead enterprises is increasing, and the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises is delayed. The demand is flat, and the lead price may run weakly due to the lack of fundamental highlights and macro - pressure on the non - ferrous sector [58][59] 3.28 Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.81% to 348,620 yuan/ton [60] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The supply of refined tin is slightly eased, and the demand has short - term support. The short - term price of tin has support below, but the overseas situation is still highly uncertain, and attention should be paid to risk control [60][61] 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract fell 0.59% to 133,890 yuan/ton [62] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is still in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [62] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.60% to 2,961 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.97% to 8,594 yuan/ton [63] - Brazil's soybean harvest progress is over 60%, and the domestic soybean import has slowed down. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. The price of oil and meal may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [63][64] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Positive trends: Zinc, iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon,动力煤, log, LPG, propylene, soda ash [17][53][57][60][67][71][127][122] - Negative trends: PX, PTA, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, eggs, live pigs [77][133][183][187] - Neutral trends: Gold, silver, copper, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, coke, coking coal, para-xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, PVC, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, pure benzene, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, peanuts [7][11][18][21][25][29][34][42][47][61][73][79][82][86][90][95][100][103][109][113][130][135][152][155][159][162][167][170][174][178][189] 2. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation between the US and Iran, which impacts energy prices and commodity supply chains [10][11][19] - Different commodities show various trends due to their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy influences [77][87][147] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to price fluctuations, with a nine - day consecutive decline in spot gold [7][9] - **Silver**: Fell from the shock platform [2] Base Metals - **Copper**: Disturbances increased, price volatility amplified, affected by geopolitical news and supply - side factors [11] - **Zinc**: Rebounded from the bottom [14] - **Lead**: Lacked clear drivers, prices fluctuated [18] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [21] - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation slowed down; alumina showed high - level fluctuations; cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [25] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: There were contradictions between macro and ore - end factors, and short - term long - short games intensified in nickel; stainless steel was suppressed by overseas macro factors and supported by real - world costs [34] Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Attention should be paid to the bottom support [42] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon focused on inventory changes; polysilicon showed bottom - level fluctuations [47][48] - **Iron Ore**: At a high level technically, with increased volatility [51] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by the high sentiment of the raw material sector, they showed a strong - side shock [55] - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The sector showed resonance, with a strong - side shock, and the long - position sentiment of manganese silicon was high, but attention should be paid to position risks [58] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Market sentiment fermented, showing a strong - side shock [61] - **动力煤**: The sentiment was strong, and port transactions moved up [65] - **Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA were in a short - term shock market and were still strong in the medium term; MEG had tight supply and a strong medium - term trend [73] - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber showed wide - range fluctuations; synthetic rubber had wide - range intraday fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties [79][82] - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE saw a reduction in derivatives and poor cost transmission; PP was strongly supported by C3 raw materials, but spot prices followed the increase slowly [86] - **Caustic Soda**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [90] - **Pulp**: Showed a strong - side shock [95] - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet was stable [100] - **Methanol**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [103] - **Urea**: Operated within a range [109] - **Styrene**: Showed high - level fluctuations [113] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little [120] - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG had geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances; propylene had supply reduction expectations due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [124] - **PVC**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [130] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices declined, and short - term fluctuations continued to expand; low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to decline [133] Agricultural Products - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips**: Showed high - level fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties [152] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It was recommended to wait and see [155] - **Pure Benzene**: Showed high - level fluctuations [159] - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil was affected by oil price disturbances and showed high - level fluctuations; soybean oil had limited upward space [162] - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal might fluctuate; spot soybeans adjusted prices following futures [167] - **Corn**: Operated in a fluctuating manner [170] - **Sugar**: Operated within a range [174] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [178] - **Eggs**: Showed weak - side fluctuations [182] - **Live Pigs**: The weight - reduction drive was approaching, and the near - end pressure increased [185] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [189] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Geopolitical disturbances were repeated, and the intraday fluctuations of the EC market were greatly affected by geopolitical sentiment [135]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The raw material sector of rebar and hot-rolled coil has high sentiment and will experience wide fluctuations [2][4]. - The silicon iron and manganese silicon sectors have resonance in sentiment, with silicon iron showing a relatively strong oscillation and manganese silicon having high bullish sentiment and a relatively strong oscillation [2][8]. - The coke and coking coal markets have fermented sentiment and will oscillate with a bullish bias [2][11]. - The sentiment of thermal coal is strong, and port transactions are moving upward [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,123 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.26%; the closing price of HC2605 was not provided. The trading volume of RB2605 was 724,139 lots, the position was 1,387,220 lots, and the position change was -62,026 lots. The trading volume of HC2605 was 276,514 lots, the position was 1,098,203 lots, and the position change was -44,974 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 19, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 8.03 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 4.95 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 18.85 tons; the total inventory of rebar decreased by 4.76 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 10.3 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 28.66 tons; the apparent demand of rebar increased by 31.28 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 15.5 tons, and the total increased by 70.4 tons [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0 [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of silicon iron 2605 was 5,932 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; the closing price of silicon iron 2607 was 6,046 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the closing price of manganese silicon 2605 was 6,400 yuan/ton, up 212 yuan; the closing price of manganese silicon 2607 was 6,430 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 20, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5,450 - 5,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), in Qinghai was 5,450 - 5,550 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5,500 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5,500 - 5,600 yuan/ton; the price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 6,050 - 6,100 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 6,000 - 6,050 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1,140 - 1,160 US dollars/ton (up 20 US dollars), and the FOB price of 75 silicon iron was 1,160 - 1,180 US dollars/ton (up 10 US dollars). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5,850 - 5,900 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and the trend intensity of manganese silicon is 1 [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,171 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan or 1.0%; the closing price of J2605 was 1,740.5 yuan/ton, up 19.5 yuan or 1.1%. The trading volume of JM2605 was 753,774 lots, the position was 384,256 lots, and the position change was -7,338 lots. The trading volume of J2605 was 14,432 lots, the position was 31,289 lots, and the position change was not provided [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resources Network showed that the CCI Shanxi low-sulfur main coking coal S0.7 was 1,451 yuan/ton, the CCI Shanxi medium-sulfur main coking coal S1.3 was 1,260 yuan/ton, and the CCI Shanxi high-sulfur main coking coal S1.6 was 1,254 yuan/ton. The on-line auction of coking coal in the production area on March 20 had a total listing volume of 17.4 tons, a non - successful bid rate of 3% (up 3% from the previous day), and an average premium of 48.92 yuan/ton [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [13]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 was 585 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 was 528 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the price of Shaanxi Yulin 5800 was 599 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 was 735 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the price of Q5000 was 652 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the price of Q4500 was 572 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 20, the port thermal coal market maintained a strong trend. Due to the rising coal mine prices, the cost of traders increased, and the quotes were firm. The non - power demand from downstream cement and chemical industries increased significantly, supporting the upward movement of the market transaction center. From January to February 2026, the national raw coal production was 76,289 tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at Beigang) is 1 [15].

Group 1: Report Industry and Investment Ratings - The report focuses on the black series of commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - Iron ore shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the 5 - 9 positive spread should continue to be held; rebar and hot - rolled coil have weak market sentiment and will experience wide - range oscillations; ferrosilicon will have wide - range oscillations due to sector sentiment resonance; silicomanganese may be affected by weather - induced disruptions in Australian ore exports in the short term and will also have wide - range oscillations; coke and coking coal will have wide - range oscillations; thermal coal has a strong port market but there are differences in market expectations; logs will have high - level price oscillations due to rising costs [2][4][8] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 807.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.43%); the open interest decreased by 8,625 hands. Spot prices of most imported ores declined, and the basis of I2605 against some ores increased slightly [4] - **News**: Near - term factors such as the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, increased energy costs, and potential restrictions on BHP iron ore procurement drove the near - term contract price rebound, with less impact on the long - term. The 2026 government work report adjusted GDP growth target and increased the scale of policy - based financial instruments. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 6.95 million tons [4][5] - **Trend Strength**: 1 [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 decreased, with open interest also declining. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in most regions decreased slightly, and basis and spreads changed to varying degrees [8] - **News**: On March 19, steel production increased, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. In February 2026, the housing price decline in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to narrow, and there were changes in real estate investment, industrial added value, and steel import and export data. Relevant policies were introduced in February, and the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased [9][10] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts changed, and spot prices of some products decreased. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also had corresponding changes [12] - **News**: There were price quotes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and a silicon furnace in Gansu resumed production. A typhoon in Australia may affect manganese ore production and shipping [12][14] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2605 and J2605 changed, and open interest decreased. Spot prices of some coking coals increased, and basis and spreads changed [15] - **News**: On March 19, the CCI metallurgical coal index increased, and the coking coal online auction had no unsold items, with an average premium of 87.1 yuan/ton [15] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18] Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: Prices at production areas, ports, and overseas showed different degrees of increase, and the long - term agreement price also increased slightly [21] - **News**: On March 19, the port thermal coal market was strong, with more inquiries and significant price increases for low - calorie coal. However, there were differences in market expectations due to potential high inventory in the off - season. From January to February 2026, the national raw coal output decreased slightly [22] - **Trend Strength**: 1 [22] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures contract prices, trading volumes, and open interest of different log contracts changed to varying degrees. Spot prices of most log products remained stable, and spreads also had corresponding changes [23] - **News**: The 2026 government work report adjusted economic policies, and relevant real estate policies were introduced in Shanghai in February [25] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [26]