2025年11月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 21 日 （1）财联社 11 月 14 日电，国家统计局数据显示，10 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 4.9%。 从环比看，10 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.17%。1—10 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%。(来自财联社 APP) 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market environments [5]. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a decline in treasury bond futures. With the current macro - economic situation and market conditions, there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day showed mixed performance. Given the current domestic economic situation, market sentiment, and external factors, the risk of a significant decline is low, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day witnessed price increases. Considering the global trade and financial environment, central bank actions, and the current price level, it is advisable to wait and see for a long - position opportunity [10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Alumina supply is relatively loose, and aluminum needs to beware of seasonal consumption pressure and profit - taking, with a possible phased correction [49]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day remained flat. With tight supply of zinc concentrates and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Due to supply and demand factors, lead prices are expected to operate within a range [54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. With tight supply and certain demand support, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day had an increase. Facing supply - demand contradictions, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Considering supply - demand relationships and technical aspects, prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With a weak supply - demand pattern and technical resistance, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day had a significant decline. Based on supply - demand changes and technical analysis, there may be a short - term correction, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during the correction [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day had a decline. With high - level production decline, weak demand recovery, and cost support, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [18]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day had an upward trend. Considering supply - demand factors and market news, there are concerns about supply surplus, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the short - term [20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With mixed supply - demand factors, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [23][24]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With improved downstream demand in some areas, investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With supply and demand factors, there is still room for short - term price increases, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day had a decline. With an oversupply situation, attention should be paid to supply - side changes [33]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. It is expected that the market will decline slightly in the next period, but the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day had an increase. With improved short - term supply - demand structure, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day had an increase. With low processing fees, low inventory, and cost factors, it is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and caution is needed [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day had a decline. With increased supply and inventory, it is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory and supply changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With high - level supply, stable demand, and enhanced cost - driving, it is expected to fluctuate with costs [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day had an increase. With raw material price support and stable supply and demand, it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day had a significant increase. With strong supply and demand, inventory is being depleted, and attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [45]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day had different performances. With sufficient soybean supply and improved demand for soybean oil, investors can focus on long - position opportunities for soybean oil and consider exiting long positions for soybean meal [59]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day had an increase. Affected by supply - demand factors, investors can consider long - position opportunities during corrections [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day had a decline. With supply - demand and external factors, investors can consider a long - position strategy for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With increased global and US production and inventory, and domestic supply and demand factors, cotton prices are expected to be weak [66]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day had a decline. With global production expectations and domestic supply pressure, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [70]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day had a high - level volatile operation. With current inventory and market conditions, apple prices are expected to operate strongly [74]. - **Pigs**: The previous trading day had a price increase. With sufficient supply and uncertain demand, investors can consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day had a price decline. With high - level supply and weak demand, investors can consider closing short positions gradually [79]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day had an increase. With new - season corn supply pressure and inventory factors, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers short - term outlooks for various commodities, suggesting that most commodities are in a state of shock, with some showing specific trends such as pressure or potential rebounds [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: There is a lack of clear drivers, and prices are in a shock state, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: LME inventories are accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventories limit price declines, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina continues to face pressure, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][27]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are limited fundamental changes, and market sentiment changes should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][32]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is to short at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when long - short arbitrage funds leave the market, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][49]. Forestry Products - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock state, with a trend strength not mentioned [2][51]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits [2][28]. - **PTA**: It is in a single - sided shock market, and chasing high prices is not recommended [2][28]. - **MEG**: New device production leads to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure remains [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock state [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has support during the shock [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a narrow - range shock [2][34]. - **PP**: Do not short in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock state [2][38]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][40]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak shock state, and the downward space is narrowing [2][41]. - **Urea**: It has support in the short - term shock [2][43]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock [2][45]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][46]. - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [2][47]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is in a bottom - range shock [2][47]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session prices continued to correct, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remains at a high level [2][51]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, and it is mainly in a range - bound shock [2][59]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock state [2][63]. - **Sugar**: It is in a weak state [2][65]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices maintain a shock trend [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse arbitrage pattern [2][68]. - **Pigs**: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][69]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the actions of oil mills [2][70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire report industry are provided. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: The risk of a significant decline is low, and it is advisable to take long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily observe and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to correct in the short term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17] - **Ferroalloys**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] - **Crude Oil**: In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: Focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [25][26] - **Polyolefins**: Temporarily observe [28] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] - **PVC**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [36][37] - **PX**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] - **PTA**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] - **Short - Fiber**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] - **Copper**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] - **Aluminum**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] - **Zinc**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] - **Lead**: Will operate within a range [53][54] - **Tin**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] - **Nickel**: May oscillate [57] - **Soybean Oil and Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] - **Palm Oil**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] - **Rapeseed Meal and Oil**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] - **Cotton**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] - **Sugar**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] - **Apples**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] - **Hogs**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] - **Eggs**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to observe for corn and wait for the release of supply pressure; corn starch may follow the corn market [83][86] Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw all treasury bond futures close higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising 0.06%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **Open - Market Operations**: On November 18, the central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan [5] - **Policy News**: 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption infrastructure and the construction of the commercial circulation system [5] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures down 0.41%, 0.23%, 0.85%, and 0.69% respectively [8][9] - **Economic Data**: In October, the unemployment rates of different age - groups in the labor force were announced, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow [9] - **Market Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures decline, with gold down 1.18% and silver down 1.96% [11] - **Positive Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and the expected Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals [11] - **Negative Factors**: The recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. Supply is affected by poor profitability, and inventory is high [13] - **Outlook**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend [13] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate [15] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has declined, but there was a recent increase in daily pig - iron output. Supply is abundant, and inventory is higher than last year [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and there may be resistance to rebounds [15] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures [17] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand is weak. Coke supply has decreased, and demand may weaken [17] - **Outlook**: May continue to correct in the short term [17] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures decline [19] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Manganese ore supply has decreased, and costs have increased. Production is declining, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating [19] - **Outlook**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and close low [21] - **Industry News**: The CFTC report is suspended, the number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and Russia has been attacked [21] - **Outlook**: There are concerns about oversupply, but the attack on Russia is beneficial to prices. In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities [22][23] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned, but there is an analysis of supply and demand [24] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative, while Russia's sanctions and reduced Sino - US trade frictions are positive [24][25] - **Outlook**: Focus on shorting opportunities [25][26] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a weak and volatile PP market in Hangzhou and a stable LLDPE market in Yuyao [27] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PP downstream demand has a mixed performance, with some industries seeing an increase and others remaining weak [27] - **Outlook**: Temporarily observe [28] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main synthetic rubber contract rise 0.91% [29] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Raw material prices have rebounded, production capacity utilization has increased, and inventory has increased [29][30] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main natural rubber contract rise 0.33% [32] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [32] - **Outlook**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PVC contract decline 1.46% [34] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory has decreased slightly [34][35] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main urea contract rise 0.36% [36] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is at a certain level [36] - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36][37] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PX contract decline 0.53% [38] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, and imports have decreased slightly [38] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PTA contract decline 0.55% [40] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has adjusted, demand is stable, and processing fees have decreased [40] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main ethylene glycol contract decline 0.64% [41] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, inventory has increased, and demand is limited [41] - **Outlook**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main short - fiber contract decline 0.64% [42] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization is high, demand is weak, and processing fees are at a certain level [42] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main bottle - chip contract decline 0.56% [43] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, export growth has slowed, and processing fees are at a certain level [43] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lithium carbonate contract rise 0.93% [44] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving, with inventory decreasing [44][45] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main copper contract decline 0.03% [46] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by mine production problems, and demand is weak except for the copper - foil sector [46] - **Outlook**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main aluminum contract decline 0.16%, and the alumina contract decline 0.36% [48] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Alumina supply is abundant, and aluminum demand is weakening [48] - **Outlook**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main zinc contract rise 0.11% [51] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply of zinc concentrate is tight, production has decreased, and demand is flat [51] - **Outlook**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lead contract decline 0.49% [53] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance, and demand is in the off - season [53] - **Outlook**: Will operate within a range [53][54] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main tin contract rise 0.68% [55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is tight, and demand has shown some resilience [55][56] - **Outlook**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main nickel contract decline 0.02% [57] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Nickel ore prices are stable, production may be affected, and demand is weak [57] - **Outlook**: May oscillate [57] Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw soybean meal down 0.33% and soybean oil up 0.60% [58] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil - mill压榨 is in a loss, and demand for both products has some improvement [58][59] - **Outlook**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures rose, and exports decreased in November [60] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Malaysian inventory is at a high level but may decrease, and domestic inventory is at a medium level [60] - **Outlook**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose [62] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Chinese rapeseed imports have decreased, and inventory is at different levels [62][63] - **Outlook**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures decline, and overseas cotton rose [65] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global and US cotton production and inventory have increased, and domestic supply pressure is high [65][67] - **Outlook**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic and overseas sugar futures decline [69] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Brazil is in the seasonal production - reduction period, India has strong production - increase expectations, and domestic imports are expected to be high [69][71] - **Outlook**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures oscillate at a high level [73] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is lower than last year, and quality is poor [73][74][75] - **Outlook**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] Hogs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main hog contract decline 1.16% [78] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is abundant, and demand is affected by the season. Inventory and cost are at certain levels [77][78] - **Outlook**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main egg contract decline 0.87% [82] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, but there are signs of improvement. Demand is weak [79][80][82] - **Outlook**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main corn contract decline 0.50% and the starch contract decline 0.96% [83] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Corn supply is abundant, and demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but inventory is high [83][84][86] - **Outlook**:

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released, which are expected to boost carbon prices, and carbon prices are likely to recover at an accelerated pace. The potential buyer demand in the market may increase by over 100 million tons in the remaining month of this year, and the actual procurement demand of the three industries is estimated to be around 30 million tons [5]. - MEG is in a weak mid - term trend, with short allocation recommended, and the monthly spread maintains a reverse arbitrage. The supply is expected to return in the future, and there is a pattern of supply - demand surplus, resulting in insufficient upward momentum [6][7]. - The repair market of treasury bond futures has reached its limit. The subsequent market is expected to show a steeper curve and a bearish trend with fluctuations. The probability of scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) is relatively high [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Carbon Market - The 2024 and 2025 national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released. In 2024, the free - allocated quotas equal the quotas to be cleared, and the basic carry - over volume is increased from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons. In 2025, the overall balance of the three industries is maintained, and the adjustment coefficient of the carbon emission intensity coefficient is expanded from 10% to 15% [5]. MEG - The load of the synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit has decreased from 80% to below 70% in the previous two weeks, but some device overhauls have ended, and new devices are put into production. The monthly import is expected to exceed 600,000 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the polyester load declines in December, resulting in a supply - demand surplus [6][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market had a repair market due to weak economic data and a decline in global risk appetite. Currently, it is difficult to stimulate the long - end price to continue rising. The bond market curve is expected to become steeper, and the market trend is bearish. There are two scenarios in the future, with scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) having a higher probability [8][9]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver is in a volatile adjustment [12]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are under pressure due to increased internal and external inventories; zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; lead prices are restricted from falling due to reduced inventories; tin prices are falling from a high level; aluminum shows a slight stabilization, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; nickel prices break through the support level and are under pressure to oscillate, and stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality but have limited downward space [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Carbonate lithium may have a short - term correction; industrial silicon may see production cuts to support prices in the future, and polysilicon is in a weak and volatile pattern; iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a wide - range oscillation; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese experience a weakening market sentiment and supplementary price drops; coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation; logs are in a volatile and repeated state [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil has fully priced in short - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking process in the producing areas; soybean oil is oscillating strongly; soybean meal and soybeans are in an adjustment and oscillation; corn is oscillating; sugar is in a range - bound arrangement; cotton prices are still suppressed by the pressure of new cotton listing; eggs show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; live pigs' price increase expectation due to cooling fails, and the pressure is gradually released; peanuts require attention to the spot market [12][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Both are expected to experience wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment has weakened, and the alloys are experiencing compensatory declines [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to experience wide-range fluctuations [2][17]. - Logs: The market will fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 792.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.44%. The open interest decreased by 10,108 lots to 471,291 lots. Spot prices generally declined, with the basis and some spreads showing changes [4]. - **News**: In October, the year-on-year actual growth of industrial added value above designated size was 4.9%, and the year-to-date growth from January to October was 6.1% [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.46%. Hot-rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.21%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spot prices, basis, and spreads [8]. - **News**: In the weekly data on November 13, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand all changed. In early November, key steel enterprises' steel inventories, production, and import/export data also showed various trends [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5,474 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan. Manganese silicon 2601 closed at 5,680 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spot prices, basis, and spreads [14][15]. - **News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions, and electricity prices in some areas changed [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are -1, indicating a bearish outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,159 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan or 4.2%. Coke J2601 closed at 1,649.5 yuan/ton, down 60.5 yuan or 3.5%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spot prices, basis, and spreads [17]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply during the heating season [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts, as well as in spot prices and spreads [20]. - **News**: The Customs总署 decided to lift the suspension of log imports from the United States starting from November 10, 2025 [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/11/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,286 | -16↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1217174 | -46346↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -68,884 | -9508↓ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -9 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报( ...

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock market, and various commodity markets show different trends and investment opportunities based on their respective fundamentals [6][9][13]. Group 2: Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 0.33%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 283 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 163.1 billion yuan on that day. From January to October, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. Group 3: Equities (Stock Index Futures) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures主力 contracts fell by 0.89%, 1.12%, 0.50%, and 0.26% respectively [8]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is low, the valuation of domestic assets is low, and there is room for repair. The risk of a sharp decline in the stock index is small, and investors can consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10][11]. Group 4: Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract closed at 929.46, down 2.49%, and the silver主力 contract closed at 11,933, down 3.57%. Japan's Q3 GDP showed a decline, while the EU raised its GDP growth forecast for the eurozone in 2025 [12]. - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see for long - entry opportunities [13][14]. Group 5: Ferrous Metals (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal and Coke, Ferroalloys) Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,090 - 3,230 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the price of rebar is likely to remain weak due to the weak demand from the real estate industry and high inventory. The trend of hot - rolled coil is expected to be similar. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound, and investors can consider shorting at high positions during the rebound [16]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The spot price of PB powder was 790 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special powder was 680 yuan/ton [18]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, the rebound may face resistance. Investors can consider shorting at high positions [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, while the demand for high - priced coking coal has decreased. The fourth - round increase in the spot purchase price of coke has been implemented [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Technically, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can consider buying on dips [21]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract rose 0.73% to 5,792 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose 1.38% to 5,566 yuan/ton. The supply of manganese ore has decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak [23]. - **Outlook**: The over - supply situation of ferroalloys has eased. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot is in the loss - making range [24]. Group 6: Energy (Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly and closed near the 5 - day moving average. The CFTC position report was suspended due to the US government shutdown. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased, and Russia was attacked, which affected the oil market [25]. - **Outlook**: Although the number of rigs has increased, the growth of US crude oil production is still uncertain. The attack on Russia is positive for oil prices, but there are still concerns about oversupply. It is advisable to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward. The expected supply of fuel oil is sufficient, but the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions have positive effects [28][29][30]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for the fuel oil主力 contract [31]. Group 7: Chemicals (Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Lithium Carbonate) Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed high - level loosening, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao adjusted. The average downstream industry start - up rate of domestic polypropylene increased slightly, and the demand for some packaging products increased [32]. - **Outlook**: Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [33]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力 contract fell 0.14%. The price of raw material butadiene rebounded, and the capacity utilization rate of the high - cis butadiene rubber industry increased [34]. - **Outlook**: The price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate widely with limited downward space. Pay attention to the raw material and supply situation [34]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力 contract rose 0.20%. The supply in domestic and overseas production areas is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises has decreased. Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year [35]. - **Outlook**: Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [35]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell 0.07%. The supply is still in excess, and the profit of the industrial chain has declined. The social inventory has decreased slightly [36]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the changes in exports and supply reduction after the festival [36]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract rose 0.79%. The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the industrial demand is insufficient. The inventory situation is different from the previous week's expectation [37]. - **Outlook**: The urea market is expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [37][38]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX主力 contract fell 0.76%. The PXN spread is relatively stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the cost is affected by the oil price [39]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX may fluctuate and adjust, with support at the bottom. Investors can participate in the range, pay attention to the oil price and macro - policies [39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601主力 contract fell 0.42%. The supply load has been adjusted, the demand of the polyester industry is relatively stable, and the processing fee has decreased [40][41]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PTA may fluctuate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to the oil price [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力 contract rose 0.36%. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand support is limited [42]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ethylene glycol may be under pressure. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602主力 contract fell 0.16%. The supply load is high, the demand has not changed much, and the cost drive has increased [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2601主力 contract fell 0.24%. The processing fee has been adjusted, the supply load has decreased, the export growth has slowed down, but it is still at a high level [45]. - **Outlook**: In the future, bottle - chip is expected to fluctuate with the cost. Investors should control risks [45]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the主力 contract rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased [46]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Group 8: Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel) Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper主力 contract closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The US government shutdown ended, and China's economic data in October was weak. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the terminal demand is affected by high raw material prices [47][48]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [48][49]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum主力 contract closed at 21,625 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the alumina主力 contract closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The supply of bauxite is stable, the supply of alumina is loose, and the demand is weakening [50]. - **Outlook**: There may be a phased correction [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc主力 contract closed at 22,390 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the production of refined zinc has decreased, and the demand is average [52][53]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [53][54]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead主力 contract closed at 17,275 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The supply of primary lead is affected by maintenance, the production of recycled lead is growing slowly, and the demand is in the off - season [55]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to run within a range [55][56]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the tin主力 contract fell 1.12% to 290,940 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows some resilience in emerging fields [57]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [57]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel主力 contract fell 0.71% to 116,990 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron is affected, and the demand is weak [58][59]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [59]. Group 9: Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil and Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal and Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn and Starch) Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.23% to 3,043 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.14% to 8,282 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slower, and the US soybean production is slightly adjusted. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the inventory of soybean oil and meal has different trends [60]. - **Outlook**: For soybean meal, investors can consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise. For soybean oil, pay attention to long - entry opportunities at the low - cost support level [61]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by the exchange rate and export data. The domestic palm oil imports have decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level. The catering industry shows growth [62]. - **Outlook**: Consider buying on dips [63]. Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by the US soybean market. The import of Canadian rapeseed has not restarted, and the inventory of rapeseed, meal, and oil in China has different trends [64]. - **Outlook**: For rapeseed oil, consider a long - biased strategy [65]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US Department of Agriculture raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and the demand is weak after the peak season [65][66]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to run weakly [66][67]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Brazilian sugar production is in the seasonal decline period, while India has a strong production increase expectation. The domestic sugar production in the north has started, and the import volume is expected to be high in the fourth quarter [68][69][70][71]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [72]. Apple - **Market Performance**: The domestic apple futures are oscillating at a high level. The inventory is lower than last year, and the quality of this year's apples is poor [73]. - **Outlook**: Apple prices are expected to run strongly [74]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs has decreased. The supply may increase in the second half of the month, and the demand is expected to be weak in the short term [75][77]. - **Outlook**: Consider shorting on rebounds and pay attention to changes in consumption [77]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The price of eggs has decreased slightly. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level but may decline slightly in November. The consumption may be supported after the temperature drops [78]. - **Outlook**: Consider gradually closing short positions [79]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The corn主力 contract was flat, and the corn starch主力 contract fell 0.60%. The US corn production was adjusted downward, and the demand for corn shows a slight increase. The inventory of corn and starch has different trends [80][81]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [82].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The HC2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions on Monday. Some steel mills have announced blast furnace maintenance plans recently, and there are expectations of macro - level positive news to boost market confidence. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to decline slightly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.13%. Downstream demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The market may fluctuate and strengthen, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the position volume was 1,263,520 lots, down 23,505 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 52,146 lots, up 7,583 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 150,567 tons, up 6,484 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 205 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The basis of the HC main contract was 38 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 151.2592 million tons, up 2.3111 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 360,300 tons, down 1,200 tons. - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2215 million tons, down 44,100 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.1666 million tons, down 33,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.79%, down 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, up 1.03 percentage points. - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.1366 million tons, down 45,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 80.13%, down 1.15 percentage points. - The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 775,200 tons, up 900 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.33 million tons, down 200 tons. - The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.3587 million vehicles, up 82,900 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.3221 million vehicles, up 95,700 vehicles. - The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units. - The monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The People's Bank of China announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on the 17th, with a term of 6 months (182 days). Considering the operation volume and maturity volume in November, this operation means that the central bank's outright reverse repurchase will be increased, with a cumulative net investment of 500 billion yuan. - From November to December, the automobile consumption promotion activity in Jiangsu will be intensified, and the subsidy standard will be significantly increased. For new cars with an invoice price of 400,000 yuan or more (including tax), the subsidy standard will be increased from 8,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan [2].

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]