2026 年 3 月 5 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | 铜： 16 | | --- | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 国债： 股指： 上一交易日，股指期货涨跌不一，沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约-1.16%，上 证 50 股指期货（IH）主力-1.33%，中证 500 股指期货（IC）主力合约-0.61%，中证 1000 股指期货（IM）主力合约-0.90%。 当前国内经济保持平稳，但国内宏观经济复苏动能不强，企业盈利增速处在低位。 但是，一 ...

2026年03月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：等待钢厂复产，矿价低位反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：一轮提降开启，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：上涨支撑不足，短期价格窄幅波动 | 9 | | 原木：预期现实博弈，小幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 5 日 铁矿石：等待钢厂复产，矿价低位反弹 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -1.5 | -0.20% | | | I2605 | | 752.0 | 昨日 ...

2026年03月05日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 5 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 铅：库存平稳，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：关注风偏企稳情况 | 10 | | 铝：中东铝厂减产，供应担忧发酵 | 11 | | 氧化铝：反弹沽空 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：情绪较为悲观 | 13 | | 钯：整体偏弱 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏强，市场情绪扰动为主 | 17 | | 工业硅：情绪提振为主 | 19 | | 多晶硅：现货价格松动 | 19 | | 铁矿石：等待钢厂复产，矿价低位反弹 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | ...

2026 年 3 月 3 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铜： 16 | | --- | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.55%报 112.740 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 108.530 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 106.080 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.464 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，3 月 2 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 190 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作 ...

2026年03月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：资金与现实博弈，价格偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发酵，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：产地涨跌互现，涨价动力不足 | 9 | | 原木：预期现实博弈，小幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 3 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 4.0 | 0.53% | | | I2605 | | ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-03 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-03-03 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美伊军事冲突不确定性增大，特朗普表示不排除"派遣地面部队" 观点分享： 美国与伊朗之间的军事冲突正快速扩大，各方表态与行动持续升级，局势走向高度不确 定。据央视新闻，当地时间 3 月 2 日，美国国防部长赫格塞思就针对伊朗的"史诗怒火"行 动举行新闻发布会。他确认，美军尚未向伊朗境内部署地面部队，但同时表示不排除任何选 项。特朗普则更进一步，对媒体表示不排除"必要时"向伊朗派遣地面部队，并称对伊打击 的"大浪潮"尚未到来。此后的公开讲话中，据央视，特朗普称，对伊朗军事行动可能持续 4 至 5 周，但他表示已做好"行动时间远超这个期限"的准备。特朗普表示，一个拥有核武 器的伊朗对美国来说是不可容忍的。美国继续在伊朗开展大规模军事行动。美以目标非常明 确，包括摧毁伊朗导弹能力，确保伊朗无法获得核武器。在国际层面，北约宣布不参与军事 行动。马克龙宣布提升法国核武库规模；法外长称美以对伊行动未经安理会审议，不具合法 性。英首相称不会参与对伊打击。伊媒称伊方未攻 ...

2026年03月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 2 | | 硅铁：电费成本预期扰动，价格偏强震荡 | 4 | | 锰硅：海外远期矿价抬升，价格偏强震荡 | 4 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发酵，震荡偏弱 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 2 日 螺纹钢：震荡反复 热轧卷板：震荡反复 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,067 | 1 | 0.03 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3, ...

CONTENTS 目录 反内卷传闻再起， 等待需求确认 钢材周报 2026/02/28 0755-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 （联系人） 从业资格号：F03133652 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 03 利润和库存 06 需求与进出口 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度小结 ◆ 供应：春节后第一周，铁水产量为233.28万吨，环比增加2.79万吨，同比+2.54%。高炉端开工率小幅回升，铁水延续修复态势，节后长流 程生产积极。螺纹钢产量为165.1万吨，环比-3.10%，同比-20.05%。在铁水回升的背景下，螺纹产量仍小幅回落，钢厂在品种结构上或向 板材倾斜。分结构看，长流程产量为162.5万吨，环比+0.58%，同比-6.97%，整体保持相对稳定；短流程产量为2.6万吨，环比-65.79%，同 比-88.31%，电炉端基本处于深度收缩状态，谷电利润转负（-16元/吨）对其形成明显压制。热轧卷板产量为309.61万吨，环比-0.06%，同 比-4.18%，基本与上周持平，板材供应端表现更为平 ...

2026年02月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期回暖，矿价震荡上扬 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪扰动，价格宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：南非矿产税务信息扰动，资金低位拉涨 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：上游报价坚挺，短期煤价表现偏强 | 9 | | 原木：预期回暖，震荡偏强 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 （1）上海市住房城乡建设管理委、上海市房屋管理局等 5 部门 2 月 25 日联合发布《关于进一步优化 调整本市房地产政策的通知》，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行。 （2）2 月 25 日讯，据了解华北部分钢企已接到 2026 年全国两会期间临时自主减排通知，要求企业在 3 月 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6] - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and long positions can be held [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, stay on the sidelines for now [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: There is a lack of bullish drivers for rebar prices, but the valuation is low. Investors can focus on low - level long - buying opportunities [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Investors can focus on low - level long - buying opportunities [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke may continue the oscillatory pattern in the medium term. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [19] - **Ferroalloys**: Overall, there is an over - supply pressure. Consider long - position opportunities in the low - level range after a decline [20] - **Crude Oil**: The price of Brent crude has support at $70. Temporarily stay on the sidelines for the main crude oil contract [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: The increase in Singapore fuel oil inventory is bearish for fuel oil prices. Focus on short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [24][25] - **Polyolefins**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines [27] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to show a strong - oscillatory trend [28][29] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to continue the strong - oscillatory trend [30][31] - **PVC**: The market may show a strong - oscillatory trend [32][35] - **Urea**: The price may oscillate upward after the festival, with a focus on policies and demand rhythm [36][37] - **PX**: May enter the de - stocking channel in the short term, and consider participating in the low - level range [38][39] - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term, and consider range - based operations [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May maintain an oscillatory bottom - building pattern, and operate with caution [41] - **Short - Fibre**: Still trades based on the cost - end logic [42] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost - end, pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices [43] - **Soda Ash**: Observe and wait after the festival, and be cautious [44][45] - **Glass**: May oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the sustainability is expected to be general [46] - **Caustic Soda**: Be cautious as the mid - and downstream fundamentals have not significantly improved [49][50] - **Pulp**: The future increase depends on the verification of downstream demand. Wait for the increase in the operating load of paper mills after the festival [53] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The support at the bottom is strong, but the short - term volatility may increase [54] - **Copper**: May maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation in the short term [55][56] - **Aluminum**: The price is temporarily under pressure and oscillating [57][58] - **Zinc**: The price will continue to oscillate and adjust after the festival [58][59] - **Lead**: The price will continue to oscillate widely for the time being [60][61] - **Tin**: The price has support at the bottom, but the short - term commodity price volatility may intensify [62][63] - **Nickel**: The primary nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia and macro - event disturbances [64] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [66] - **Palm Oil**: Consider a bullish trading idea [67][68] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil can consider a bullish trading idea [69][70] - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73][74] - **Sugar**: Wait and see [75][76] - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [77] - **Pigs**: Supply may still face great pressure, and wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [78] - **Eggs**: Consider holding short positions in the far - month contracts [79][80] - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - festival supply pressure [83] - **Logs**: Pay attention to foreign - market quotes, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [85][86] 3. Summaries According to the Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5312 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the base spread strengthened in the past two days. The domestic supply changed little. After the holiday, there was a rigid demand for restocking, and the high cost of foreign markets supported the price bottom. The import pulp market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising, and the price sentiment warmed up. However, the demand recovery still needs time, and the actual transactions were still light [51][53] Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.47% to 173,660 yuan/ton. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance sheet is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate decreased weekly, and the consumption showed the characteristics of not being off - season. The social inventory of lithium carbonate was gradually depleted. There was support at the bottom of the price, but the short - term volatility might increase [54] Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract closed at 102,550 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The macro - situation led to an increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The supply of copper concentrates was tight, and the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand recovery after the holiday might be slow, and the social inventory accumulation cycle might continue until mid - March. The copper price may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation in the short term [55][56] Aluminum - The main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 23,780 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the main alumina contract closed at 2,747 yuan/ton, down 3.55%. The cost support of alumina was not strong, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remained unchanged. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate in the short term. The aluminum price was temporarily under pressure and oscillating [57][58] Zinc - The main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 24,570 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The refining zinc production decreased seasonally in February, and the social inventory did not increase significantly before the festival. The demand in the off - season was significant. The zinc price continued to oscillate and adjust after the festival [58][59] Lead - The main Shanghai lead contract closed at 16,800 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The production of primary lead decreased, and the production enthusiasm of secondary lead enterprises was not high. The resumption of work of lead - acid battery enterprises was earlier than that of secondary lead enterprises, forming a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The lead price continued to oscillate widely for the time being [60][61] Tin - The main Shanghai tin contract rose 2.35% to 428,000 yuan/ton. The risk of overseas geopolitical conflicts increased, and the supply - demand was tight. The refined tin inventory decreased, and the price had support at the bottom. The short - term commodity price volatility might intensify [62][63] Nickel - The main Shanghai nickel futures contract fell 1.25% to 139,100 yuan/ton. The geopolitical risk between the US and Iran increased, and the global supply - chain risk increased again. The nickel ore was in short supply, and the cost increased. The stainless - steel market was in the off - season, and the consumption was not optimistic. The primary nickel was in an oversupply pattern [64] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The main soybean meal contract rose 0.35% to 2,834 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract fell 0.10% to 8,198 yuan/ton. The import of domestic soybeans slowed down, the supply was relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal increased moderately. The demand for soybean oil improved slightly, and the inventory pressure decreased [65][66] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell. The export decreased, and the domestic palm oil inventory was stable. Consider a bullish trading idea [67][68] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed continued to rise. The import of domestic rapeseed decreased, and the import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. The rapeseed meal inventory decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory increased slightly. Rapeseed oil can consider a bullish trading idea [69][70] Cotton - The domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose first and then fell, and the external - market cotton fell. The new - year global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will enter the de - stocking cycle. The domestic supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [71][73] Sugar - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose significantly, and the external - market raw sugar fluctuated slightly. India lowered its production, while the domestic sugar supply was sufficient, and the import volume was still high. Wait and see [75][76] Apples - The apple futures rebounded with a reduction in positions. The spot market was stable. The inventory of apples in cold storage decreased, and the new - season apple production and quality declined. The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [77] Pigs - The main contract fell 0.13% to 11,395 yuan/ton. The supply of pigs exceeded the demand after the festival, and the supply might still face great pressure. Wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [78] Eggs - The main contract fell 0.67% to 3,239 yuan/500kg. The egg supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Consider holding short positions in the far - month contracts [79][80] Corn and Starch - The main corn contract closed flat at 2,342 yuan/ton, and the main corn starch contract fell 0.52% to 2,658 yuan/ton. The northern port inventory was low, and the spot price was strong. The corn import decreased in 2025, and the domestic production and demand were basically balanced. The corn starch demand improved slightly, and the inventory was high. It may follow the corn market [81][83] Logs - The main 2605 contract closed at 793.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The New Zealand log shipment volume increased during the Spring Festival, and the domestic inventory increased. The downstream demand gradually recovered after the festival, and the foreign - market quotes might rise. Pay attention to foreign - market quotes, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [84][86]