2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 23 | | 免责声明 | | 25 | 国债： 4 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 产能，推动构建优质优价、公平竞争的市场秩序。 当前国内经济保持平稳，但国内宏观经济复苏动能不强，企业盈利增速处在低位。 但是，一方面国内资产估值水平处在低位，估值修复仍有空间；另一方面，中国经济 有足够韧性。近期，市场情绪明显升温，增量资金持续入场。近期中美经贸不确定性 有所缓解，预计股指波动中 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2026年01月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 焦炭：事件发酵，高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：事件发酵，高位震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 8 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 828.0 | 27.0 | 3. 37% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 666. 581 | 25, 713 | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 热轧卷板：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.52%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性表现尚可，叠加市场情绪偏暖，价格震荡走高，但产 量大幅回升，且需求存有隐忧，谨防需求走弱引发矛盾再度累积，届时 价格将承压走弱，关注需求表现情况。 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观情绪发酵，钢矿偏强运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.87%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 商品情绪偏暖，螺纹期价低位回升，但供增需弱局面下螺纹基本面弱稳 运行，淡季钢价上行有待跟踪 ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/7 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,332 | +69↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1377887 | +103802↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -17,707 | -39959↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -21 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日 ...

螺纹钢产业链日报 2026/1/7 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：RB：螺纹钢；HC：热轧卷板 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,187.00 | +76↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1741383 | +178435↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -879 | +3073↑ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -48 | -3↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 77844 | -600↓ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 145 | -7↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,360.00 | +50↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,446 | +51↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,520.00 | +30↑ 天津 HRB400E 20MM( ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The 2026 China People's Bank Work Conference emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and planned to use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [8][22][28][30]. - Multiple factors drive the copper price to be strong. Supply - side concerns and long - term copper consumption recovery expectations, especially from emerging industries like AI computing centers,新能源 industries, and grid transformation, may lead to a continuous firm or rising copper price [9][10]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and the fermentation of geopolitical events [11][12][144]. - The silicon iron market is driven by emotions and medium - term expectations, and the price may rise, but the sustainability needs further confirmation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: Global geopolitical turmoil raises concerns about copper mine supply. The 2026 Chinese imported copper concentrate long - term TC is $0/ton, lower than in 2025. Some copper mines face potential labor disputes and production changes [9][24][26]. - **Demand - side**: Long - term copper consumption recovery expectations are strong. AI computing centers and other emerging industries, as well as the new energy industry and grid transformation, drive copper demand [9][10]. - **Price trend**: Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the copper price may remain firm or rise [10]. Zinc - **Market performance**: The zinc price is running strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed [27]. - **News influence**: Policy changes and geopolitical events may affect the zinc market [28]. Lead - **Market situation**: The LME lead inventory decrease supports the lead price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also shown corresponding trends [31]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate data influence the lead market [31]. Tin - **Market trend**: The tin price is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased, and the inventory has changed [34]. - **News impact**: Macroeconomic policies and corporate news affect the tin market [35]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: The aluminum price is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign aluminum futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have all changed [37]. - **News influence**: Fed policy differences and geopolitical events affect the aluminum market [38]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market trend**: Platinum shows a recovery in sentiment and runs strongly, and palladium follows platinum. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have changed [39]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate news influence the market [42]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Nickel is in a wide - range oscillation, and stainless steel is affected by the fundamentals and Indonesian policies. The prices, trading volume, and open interest of nickel - related products have changed, and the Indonesian government has introduced relevant policies [43][44][46]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market performance**: The market sentiment of carbonate lithium is strong. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed [47]. - **News influence**: The price negotiation of lithium iron phosphate and the release of new battery products affect the market [48][49]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market trend**: Industrial silicon is affected by news and shows a strong performance, and polysilicon needs to pay attention to market news. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed [50]. - **News background**: The proposed implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi affects the industrial silicon market [51]. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The iron ore price is fluctuating at a high level. The prices of iron ore futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have also shown corresponding trends [54][55]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market performance**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by market sentiment and are in a wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil have changed, and relevant policies have been introduced [58][59][60]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market trend**: The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon are oscillating upwards. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed. The market is affected by potential electricity price increases and other factors [63][64][65]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation with accumulating contradictions. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed [67]. Logs - **Market performance**: The log price is oscillating at a low level. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of log futures and spot have changed [70][71][73]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market trend**: p - Xylene is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is in a high - level oscillation, and MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant products have changed, and market news affects the market [74][75][76]. Rubber - **Market situation**: The rubber price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the rubber cost support is strengthening [79][80][81]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market performance**: The short - term center of synthetic rubber moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of synthetic rubber futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by the cost of butadiene [82][83][84]. LLDPE - **Market trend**: The LLDPE price is firm, and the standard product production decreases. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships [85][86]. PP - **Market situation**: The PP price is weak. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PP futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by cost and demand [88][89]. Caustic Soda - **Market performance**: Caustic soda is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of caustic soda futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as delivery and supply - demand [90][91][92]. Pulp - **Market trend**: The pulp price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pulp futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and demand [95][97][98]. Glass - **Market situation**: The glass price is stable. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of glass futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by the holiday atmosphere and demand [100][101]. Methanol - **Market performance**: Methanol is strong in the short - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of methanol futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations [103][104][106]. Urea - **Market situation**: The urea price center moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of urea futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as demand expectations and inventory [108][109][110]. Styrene - **Market trend**: Styrene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of styrene futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as valuation and supply - demand [113][114][115]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: The soda ash market changes little. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soda ash futures and spot have changed [117][119]. LPG and Propylene - **Market performance**: The LPG import cost is firm, and propylene demand is stable with a slight price increase. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LPG and propylene futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [121]. PVC - **Market trend**: PVC is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PVC futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory [129][130][131]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market situation**: Fuel oil turns strong and is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures and spot have changed [134]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market performance**: The 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and geopolitical events. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant contracts have changed, and the shipping capacity and freight rates have also been affected [136][142][143]. Agricultural Products Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market situation**: Short - fiber and bottle chip are in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures and spot have changed [146][147]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market performance**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of offset printing paper futures and spot have changed, and the market demand is weak [149][150][152]. Pure Benzene - **Market situation**: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pure benzene futures and spot have changed, and the port inventory has increased [153][154]. Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Market performance**: Palm oil is affected by macro - emotions, soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, and rapeseed oil shows corresponding price changes. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [157][158][159]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Market situation**: Soybean meal may oscillate, and soybeans are in an oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as Chinese purchases and USDA reports [162][163][164]. Corn - **Market performance**: Attention should be paid to the corn spot. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of corn futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot prices and import information [165][166][167]. Sugar - **Market situation**: Sugar is in a low - level consolidation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of sugar futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as production and import [169][170][171]. Cotton - **Market performance**: Cotton remains strong. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot trading and textile enterprise operations [174][175]. Eggs - **Market situation**: The far - month sentiment of eggs weakens. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of egg futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [178]. Hogs - **Market performance**: There is still inventory accumulation for hogs. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of hog futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [181][183][184]. Peanuts - **Market situation**: Peanuts are in an oscillating operation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the spot market price is relatively stable [187][188].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应在回升，而需求表现偏弱，基本面表现不佳，淡季钢价继续 承压，相对利好的是政策预期，预计钢价延续震荡偏弱运行态势，关注 钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.18%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性表现尚可，产业矛盾未加剧，价格延续低位震荡，但 产量大幅回升，且需求存有隐忧，一旦其走弱则供需 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.95%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，利多因素发酵支撑矿价高位运行，但供应居高不下，而需求改善受 限，基本面表现偏弱，上行驱动不强，预计矿价维持高位震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业格局不一，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 0.74%日跌幅 ...

2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 3 | | 硅铁：钢招定价落地，警惕盘面情绪 | 5 | | 锰硅：节后询价情绪浓厚，等待钢招落地 | 5 | | 焦炭：四轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：供需修复，高位震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 5 日 铁矿石：高位反复 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 789.5 | 涨跌(元/吨) 0.5 | 涨跌幅 0.06% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12605 | | | | | | | | ...

2025年12月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：四轮提降开启，震荡反复 | 7 | | 焦煤：年底减产扰动，震荡反复 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 1.72% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 796. 5 | 13.5 | | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 629.681 | 48. 9 ...