2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 790. 5 | 10. 0 | 1. 28% | | | I 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 459. 565 | 12. 200 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) ...

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲击50新高 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 7 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 9 | | 锡：加速上行 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：去库加速，震荡运行 | 16 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 | 18 | | 多晶硅：市场消息再次发酵，关注实际落地 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复 ...

核心观点 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 9 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 原料偏强带动钢价震荡企稳 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡企稳，录得 0.19%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹供应收缩，但高库存下利好效应不强，相应的需求表现依然疲弱， 供需双弱局面下基本面并无实质性改善，钢价易承压运行，关注节后需 求恢复情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.37%日涨幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，假期板材钢厂生产趋稳，供应压力偏大，而需求表现偏弱，基本面 弱势运行，库存显著增加，价格继续承压运行，关注节后需求表现情 况。 铁矿石：主力期价有所走强，录得 0.96%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶 段，假期海外商品市场氛围偏暖，给予矿价支撑，但矿石供应重回高 位，而需求料将趋弱，矿石基本面矛盾在累积，多空因素博弈下预计矿 价高位震荡运行，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhg ...

2025年10月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：多事件扰动，偏强震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：基本面与宏观情绪博弈，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：基本面与宏观情绪博弈，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铁矿石：多事件扰动，偏强震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 780. 5 | -3.5 | -0. 45% | | ...

2025年09月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：原料走势趋弱，偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：原料走势趋弱，偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 29 日 铁矿石：预期反复，高位震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 财联社 9 月 18 日电，美国联邦储备委员会当地时间 17 日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基 点到 4.00%-4.25%之间，符合市场普遍预期。(来自财联社 App) 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a month - on - month improvement in apparent demand [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8] - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][12] - Silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies' quotation rises [2][12] - Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][15] - Coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures was 805.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 9,319 lots. Imported ore prices decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32%, with a decrease in open interest. For hot - rolled coil, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were mostly stable, and basis and spreads changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to September 25 steel union weekly data, rebar production increased by 0.01 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 tons. Apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.41 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons. In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities increased. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends. Other news includes export and import data of steel products [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing price of SF2511 was 5,786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese, the closing price of SM2511 was 5,924 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 25, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced. In September, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia decreased, but production increased. New production capacity of silicomanganese is expected to increase. Overseas mining companies raised their quotations for November [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,234.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.8%. For coke, the closing price of J2601 was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.7%. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,358 | +1↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1369716 | +1955↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -76,157 | +1287↑ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 62 | +5↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 32504 | -5355↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 191 | -2↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,420.00 | 0.00 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,370.00 | 0.00 | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,430.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 62.00 | -1.00↓ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价差(元/吨) | 80.00 | ...

2025年09月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 25 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 803. 5 | 1.0 | 0.12% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience a sideways adjustment [2][6]. - Copper prices have surged due to force majeure disturbances in copper mines [2][13]. - Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound [2][15]. - Lead prices are supported by decreasing inventories [2][19]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][21]. - Aluminum is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend, alumina will trade within a range, and cast aluminum alloy will outperform electrolytic aluminum [2][27]. - Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between short - term supply - demand and costs [2][30]. - The pre - holiday restocking of lithium carbonate is coming to an end, and the sideways trend will continue [2][37]. - For industrial silicon, the futures price is relatively resilient; for polysilicon, pay attention to market sentiment due to upstream sudden maintenance [2][40]. - Iron ore prices will have wide - range oscillations due to repeated expectations [2][43]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will have wide - range oscillations [2][45][46]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices will have wide - range oscillations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][50]. - Coke and coking coal prices will have wide - range oscillations due to repeated expectations [2][53][54]. - Log prices will oscillate repeatedly [2][56]. - Para - xylene and PTA will have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term; MEG suggests a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE gold 2510 was 856.04 with a daily increase of 0.48%, and the night - session closing price was 853.06 with a decrease of 0.65%. The trend strength is 0 [7][10]. - **Silver**: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE silver 2510 was 10354 with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 10349.00 with a decrease of 0.52%. The trend strength is 1 [7][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 79,960 with a daily increase of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 82610 with an increase of 3.31%. Free Port announced that its Indonesian Grasberg mine encountered force majeure. The trend strength is 2 [12][14]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21860 with a daily increase of 0.07%. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1375 tons. The trend strength is 0 [15][16]. - **Lead**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17065 with a decrease of 0.12%. The SHFE lead futures inventory decreased by 3450 tons. The trend strength is 0 [19]. - **Tin**: The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 271,650 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price was 272,950 with an increase of 0.51%. The trend strength is 0 [22][26]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20705. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 63.70 million tons. The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [27][29]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract was 121,450, and that of stainless - steel main contract was 12,895. The trend strength of nickel and stainless - steel is 0 [30][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,880. The pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end. The trend strength is 0 [37][39]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The closing price of Si2511 was 9,020, and that of PS2511 was 51,380. The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [40][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,164, and that of HC2601 was 3,357. The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [46][49]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2511 was 5742, and that of manganese silicon 2511 was 5900. The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [51][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1224.5, and that of J2601 was 1730. The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0 [54]. - **Log**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 807.5. The trend strength is 0 [57][59]. - **Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA will have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term; MEG suggests a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][60].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the trading schedule for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025, indicating no night trading on September 30, 2025, and a market closure from October 1 to October 8, 2025 [1][2] - Trading will resume on October 9, 2025, with a collection auction for all futures and options contracts from 08:55 to 09:00 [2] Group 2 - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts will be adjusted, with specific percentages outlined for different commodities [2] - For example, the price fluctuation limit for aluminum alloy futures will be adjusted to 7%, while for gold and silver futures, it will be set at 15% [2] Group 3 - On October 9, 2025, after trading, the price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will revert to their original levels following the first trading day without a one-sided market [3] - Other matters regarding price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will be governed by the Shanghai Futures Exchange's risk control management regulations [4]