日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.08.25） 参考策略：IF2509 多单持有，买入 IO-4300-P 看跌期权保护 核心逻辑： 1.海外方面，全球央行年会上美联储主席鲍威尔最新表态相对偏鸽， 9 月大概率降息，市场基本计价价全年降息 2 次，大幅提振全球风险情绪， 有助科创类相关板块估值提升。 2.资金情绪方面，市场量能处于高位水平，融资余额稳定在 2.1 万亿 上方，融资余额市值占比上升至 2.30%，杠杆资金持续加速进场，杠杆资 金交投情绪持续升温，融资资金交易额占比虽先升后降，期末比重仍较上 周提升 0.1 个百分点。权益类 ETF 整体净申购为主，沪深 300 指数、上证 50 指数、中证 500 指数、中证 1000 指数分别净流入 428.57 亿、87.1 亿、 110.75 亿、59.41 亿。 3.政策端，新一期国常会听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新 政策情况汇报，加强统筹协调，完善实施机制，更好发挥对扩大内需的推 动作用，综合施策释放内需潜力。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - **Propylene**: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - **PTA**: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - **MEG**: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Compressing profit margins. [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to run weakly. [5] - **Sugar**: Oscillating within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - **Manganese Silicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the steel sector, the recovery of future demand may fall short of expectations due to the real - estate market still being in the process of bottom - building, and futures prices are under downward pressure. The short - term prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may stabilize, and the medium - term trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation. For iron ore, although there is room for an increase in steel mill's molten iron production after the military parade, the room for further increase is limited, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, apparent demand has increased from a decline, factory inventory has increased for the third consecutive week, and social inventory has increased for the sixth consecutive week. The total production and inventory of the five major steel varieties have increased, and apparent demand has also risen. With the end of the summer heat, apparent demand should gradually recover, and total inventory is expected to gradually decline [2] - **Technical analysis**: After a sharp decline, rebar and hot - rolled coils have stabilized and rebounded, with a decrease in open interest. Short - term prices may stabilize, and the medium - term will maintain a wide - range oscillation [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for a rebound to short [2] - **Data summary**: Various data such as futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are presented in detail, including changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [2] Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased. The molten iron production of 247 steel mills has increased slightly. After the military parade, there is room for an increase in molten iron production, but the room for further increase is limited. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 contract has stabilized near the middle track of the daily K - line Bollinger Band. Short - term prices may rebound to the upper track, but the overall Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Close short positions in the short - term and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Data summary**: Comprehensive data on iron ore, including spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipment, freight, arrivals, inventory, etc., are provided, along with changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4] Industry News - As of August 2025, 20 distressed real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved, with a total debt resolution scale exceeding 120 billion yuan. Since 2022, 27 listed real - estate enterprises have been delisted passively, and several others have delisted through privatization [6] - Chengdu has introduced a new housing provident fund policy, with preferential measures for purchasing affordable housing [6] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of coke [6] - The online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT company on August 21 ended in failure [6] - As of the week of August 21, rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand has increased from a decline [6] - As of August 21, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of the float - glass industry have remained stable, and the daily output has remained at the highest level of the year [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend and strategy outlooks for multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The views are as follows: - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite has not significantly declined, and support remains [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is biased towards fundamentals, with weak and volatile trends [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][16]. - Logs: The price will fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 771.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.13%). The open interest increased by 674 to 449,577 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose by 2.0 yuan/ton to 877.0 yuan/ton, while PB fines (61.5%) dropped by 2.0 yuan/ton to 768.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,126 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton (- 1.48%), with a trading volume of 1,121,791 lots and an open interest of 1,608,694 lots, a decrease of 1,199 lots. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,416 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.38%), with a trading volume of 380,711 lots and an open interest of 1,184,978 lots, a decrease of 17,753 lots. Spot prices generally declined [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons (a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month); 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons (a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month); and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons (a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month). Other macro and industry data are also provided [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for rebar is - 1 (weak), and for hot - rolled coil is 0 (neutral) [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2509, the closing price was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 44,328 lots and an open interest of 41,200 lots. For silicomanganese 2509, the closing price was 5,842 yuan/ton, down 184 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 193,093 lots and an open interest of 114,885 lots. Spot prices also declined [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 19, the price ranges of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. The manganese ore market was generally stable with narrow fluctuations [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1 (weak) [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal (JM2601), the closing price was 1,194.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.6%), with a trading volume of 1,364,959 lots and an open interest of 713,865 lots, a decrease of 2,226 lots. For coke (J2601), the closing price was 1,708.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton (0.4%), with a trading volume of 26,198 lots and an open interest of 38,416 lots, a decrease of 129 lots. Spot prices showed mixed trends [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0 (neutral) [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/8/19 | 分瑞达期货 | | --- | 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,416 | -3↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1184978 | -17753↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -90,690 | -2637↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 13 | +7↑ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. For example, iron ore has support as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined; rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation due to weak sector sentiment; silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a firm spot quotation; coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate at high levels; logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5][8][9][13][16][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The trend strength is 1. On August 15, 2025, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - adding list [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend Forecast**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar futures contract RB2510, the closing price was 3,155 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.88%); for hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510, the closing price was 3,419 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.20%). In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7% month - on - month, pig iron by 3.2% month - on - month, and steel decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. The trend strength of both is 0 [9][10][12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation due to weak sector sentiment; silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a firm spot quotation [2][13]. - **Fundamental Data**: For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,710 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the closing price of silicomanganese 2509 was 6,026 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons month - on - month. The trend strength of both is 0 [13][14][15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures contract JM2601, the closing price was 1,187.5 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan (- 3.5%); for coke futures contract J2601, the closing price was 1,702 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan (- 1.6%). The trend strength of both is 0 [16][18]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. - **Fundamental Data**: The price of various log products showed different changes in terms of closing price, trading volume, and position. For example, the closing price of the 2509 log contract decreased by 2.1% week - on - week. In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed. The trend strength is 0 [20][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - Crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [28]. - For natural rubber, consider going long after a pull - back [31]. - PVC will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. - Urea will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [35]. - PX will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. - PTA may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - Ethylene glycol may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - grade chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - For soda ash, pay attention to controlling positions due to the increase in supply and weak demand [42]. - For glass, go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances before contract roll - over [43]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported ore on consumption and prices [45]. - For pulp, the supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability, and there is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [49]. - For copper, pay attention to buying opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - Tin and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [54][55]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [57]. - For palm oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them [62]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [65]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, showing interval - based fluctuations [69][70]. - Apple futures are expected to be affected by increased production [71]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [77]. - Corn prices have support at lower levels in the short - term and pressure at higher levels, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - Log prices are expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US retail sales data was stable, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly declined. Policy changes dominate the market in the short - term, and the prices are expected to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - term. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly pulled back. Policy is the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The high demand for hot metal supports prices, but the supply has increased. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted. Policy affects supply, and prices may continue to adjust in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply and prices have changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The supply is excessive, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards and was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. The "Double - Putin" talks and CFTC data indicate that crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market shows signs of improvement, but the supply in Singapore is still excessive. It is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. Wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and supply - side disruptions continue. Consider going long after a pull - back [29][31]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. It will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures closed flat. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it will fluctuate. It is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [33][35]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply has increased, and the cost support is weak. It will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has slightly increased, demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak. It may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has increased, and the port inventory has accumulated. It may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand has recovered. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [40][41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. Pay attention to controlling positions [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. Go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Supply has little change, and inventory has decreased. The use of imported ore may affect consumption and prices, and the price is expected to stabilize [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose slightly. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability. The inventory is high, and the price rebound space is limited [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48][49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper slightly fluctuated. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Pay attention to buying opportunities [51][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, and the market expects the tin ore to resume production in the fourth quarter. The supply is still in short supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The ore price has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the demand is weak. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The USDA report lowered the US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean supply is loose, and the import cost has increased. Consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [56][57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose. The export volume in the first half of August increased. The domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated. Consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China imposed anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed supply may be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing long positions and holding them [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US and global cotton supply - demand reports were favorable. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, and textile exports have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [63][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to observe [67][69]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production increase has been confirmed. The inventory has decreased, and the price of early - maturing apples has declined [71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average live - pig price declined. The supply in the north has increased, and the price is expected to be observed. The supply in the south is stable. The supply will increase in August, and it is advisable to consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price rose slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory has increased. The supply in August is expected to increase, and consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][77]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the price has pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market [78][80]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs has decreased, and the inventory has declined. The trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [81][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Support remains as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Logs: Repeated oscillation [2][18] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Relevant data is tracked from Mysteel, Dongcai Choice, and the research institute [4] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [4] - **Trend strength**: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, RB2510's yesterday's closing price was 3,188 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); HC2510's was 3,439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [6] - **Macro - industry news**: In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 4.1%. Their steel inventory increased by 2.0% compared to the previous ten - day period. On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and various spreads. For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,754 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [10] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output decreased by 4.0% year - on - year. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons compared to the previous period [10][14] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,230 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.3%) [15] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [16] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot - futures spreads, and various spreads of different log products. For example, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 815, with a daily increase of 0.7% [19] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 balance increased by 5.6% year - on - year [21] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be put on hold for the time being [26]. - For fuel oil, the main contract should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. - For synthetic rubber, investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. - For natural rubber, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. - Short - fiber is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate with costs, and risk control is necessary [45]. - Soda ash is expected to have high - level adjustments in supply, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [46]. - Glass is recommended for short - selling in the short term, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a stable and narrow - range adjustment in price, and the market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [51][52]. - Lithium carbonate trading is complex, and it is recommended that non - participants operate with a light position and control risks [53]. - For copper, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][57]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors should consider exiting long positions at high levels and then look for long - position opportunities at support levels [60][61]. - For palm oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [62][64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [65][66]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [70][71]. - Apples are recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [73][75]. - For live pigs, an inverse spread strategy is recommended [76][77]. - For eggs, a 9 - 10 inverse spread strategy is recommended [78][79]. - For corn and starch, the near - month contract of corn has support at low levels, and starch follows the corn market [80][81]. - Logs are expected to have some support for bullish sentiment in the short term [82][84]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan on the day. China's macro - economic data in July showed that M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans in the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, and the increase in RMB deposits was 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. 2. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 1.02%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.78%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.77% [8]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 777.72, up 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 777.1; the closing price of the silver main contract was 9,300, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 9318. The US Treasury Secretary speculated that the Fed might cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, providing a new driving force for gold [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 4. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The latest price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 3080 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3240 - 3370 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3490 - 3500 yuan/ton. Policy changes are the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price of finished products is expected to return to the logic of industrial supply and demand. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor [13][14]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of PB fines at the port was 788 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special fines was 660 yuan/ton. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The daily output of hot metal remains above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import volume of iron ore has increased significantly since April, the import volume and domestic output in the first half of the year decreased year - on - year, and the port inventory is lower than last year. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [16]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures回调 significantly. On Wednesday night, affected by the position - limit measures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The policy of coal production verification has affected the supply, and some coal mines have stopped production, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in coking coal supply [18][19]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. 7. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contract of manganese silicon closed down 0.65% to 6074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron closed down 1.02% to 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the supply of Australian ore increased, with the port manganese ore inventory rising slightly to 4.49 million tons. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills increased slightly, and the output of ferroalloys continued to rise, but the demand recovery was weak, and the supply was still high. The high inventory of warrants exerts pressure on the spot and futures markets [21]. - After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. 8. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low in recent days. The CFTC data showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The Baker Hughes report showed that the total number of US oil and gas rigs decreased by 1. The IEA monthly report raised the global oil supply growth forecast and lowered the global oil demand growth forecast, and it is expected that there will be a record - high oil supply surplus next year [24]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia talks, and geopolitical risks have eased. The IEA monthly report is negative for crude oil prices. The main contract of crude oil should be put on hold for the time being [25][26]. 9. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward, and its trend remained weak. The downstream demand in the Asian fuel oil market continued to be weak, and the expected increase in Western arbitrage inflows pressured the low - sulfur fuel oil market. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia was sufficient, and the power plant demand decreased. In the Singapore spot market, the trading was difficult to conclude due to the large gap between buyers' and sellers' quotes [27]. - The main contract of fuel oil should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber closed down 0.13%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11850 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The supply decreased due to increased losses, the macro - sentiment was positive, and the market stabilized. The price of butadiene oscillated, and the processing of synthetic rubber was in a loss. The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber industry fell to around 68%. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The manufacturer's inventory decreased month - on - month, and the trader's inventory increased month - on - month [29]. - Investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. 11. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.13%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber fell 0.08%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at around 14400 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The macro - market sentiment improved, and there were continued disturbances on the supply side, with the market stabilizing and rising. Heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affected rubber tapping, and the raw material purchase price continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The natural rubber inventory in China decreased this week, with both dark and light rubber inventories falling. It is estimated that Thailand's rubber production will increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons in 2025 [31][32]. - Investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. 12. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC closed down 0.38%, the spot price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The oversupply situation of PVC continued, but the room for further decline was limited, and it continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The number of domestic PVC enterprises under maintenance decreased week - on - week, and the supply increased. The operating rates of the main downstream pipe and profile industries continued to decline, and the operating rates of other products were relatively stable. The cost and profit were mainly affected by raw materials. Currently, the raw material price fell, while the PVC price rose slightly, and the PVC profit improved. The social inventory of PVC increased by 7.49% week - on - week to 7.763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.52% [34][35]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. 13. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea closed flat. The price in Linyi, Shandong remained stable at 1720 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. In the short term, the fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. In the medium term, a bullish view was maintained. The supply side saw a slight decline in the overall industry operating rate, but the supply remained at a high level. The main downstream compound fertilizer for autumn was in the production season, and the operating rate increased steadily. The operating rate of melamine decreased slightly. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, lower than expected last week, and the inventory of urea ports was 483,000 tons, higher than expected last week [37][38]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. 14. PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 fell 0.35%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 120 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate rose slightly to 82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. Some refineries increased their loads or restarted. In June, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 765,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 34.4%. The international oil price oscillated weakly [39]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. 15. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell 0.55%. The spot price in East China was 4695 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.06%. Some PTA plants restarted or reduced their loads, with the PTA operating rate at 76.2%. The operating rate of polyester increased to 88.8%. The profit of PTA processing improved slightly to around 200 yuan/ton [40]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell 0.47%. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increased by 0.14%. The inventory at the main ports in East China was about 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports from August 11 to August 17 was about 141,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was adjusted to 88.8%, and the operating rate of terminal looms was adjusted locally [43]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. 17. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2510 fell 0.22%. The operating rate of short - fiber plants rose to around 90.6%. The sales of polyester yarn improved, and the operating rates of downstream drawing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 70%, 59%, and 65% respectively. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in Jiangsu and

主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓173582、增仓3956，乾坤期货、持仓68719、增仓2745，方正中 期、持仓30461、增仓2492；多头减仓前三名分别是：五矿期货、持仓32106、减仓-7676，国泰君安、持仓134111、减仓-6108，一 德期货、持仓23653、减仓-2391； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓247071、增仓7643，永安期货、持仓50047、增仓6868，东证期 货、持仓105370、增仓5128；空头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓88416、减仓-6773，中泰期货、持仓40857、减仓-6485， 浙商期货、持仓19451、减仓-2653。 来源：新浪期货 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至8月12日收盘主力合约热轧卷板2510,涨跌+1.40%,成交量48.85万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现 净空，差额头寸为11123手。 热轧卷板期货全合约总计成交73.63万手，比上一日减少10.28万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓176.16万手，比上一日增加1.81万 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓181.01万手，比上一日增加 ...