Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene glycol may continue its low-level oscillating pattern in the short term, with the core contradictions being: cost differentiation intensifying, inventory accumulation suppressing market sentiment, and funds waiting for directional guidance. Overall, in the absence of new drivers, ethylene glycol may maintain a weak outlook, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil and coal price fluctuations on the cost side [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The price of the ethylene glycol主力合约 dropped from 4,089 yuan/ton to 4,003 yuan/ton, a single-day decline of 2.1%, showing a continuous callback trend. The spot price in East China also fell by 80 yuan/ton to 4,075 yuan/ton, and the futures-spot basis strengthened slightly, indicating that the decline of the spot was slightly slower than that of the futures [2] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the主力 contract increased by 6,474 lots to 340,400 lots, but the trading volume decreased by 7.95% to 160,000 lots, reflecting intensified divergence between long and short in the market, reduced trading activity, and increased wait-and-see sentiment among short-term funds [3] - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 71.04%, with the oil-based and coal-based operating rates stable at 76.49% and 62.95% respectively, showing no significant fluctuations on the supply side. The profit of ethylene-based plants improved (e.g., the profit of SD oxidation method rebounded by 98 yuan/ton), but the coal-based profit decreased by 76 yuan/ton to 410.87 yuan/ton, and the natural gas-based profit also declined by 50 yuan/ton. Cost pressure may suppress the willingness of coal chemical plants to increase production [4] - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester plants remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 63.43%. There were no signs of incremental demand at the terminal, and the peak-season effect weakened [5] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 34,000 tons to 541,000 tons, reaching a recent high, but the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 13,000 tons. The regional differentiation indicated that there was still pressure on port arrivals, but there was local inventory reduction [6] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of the ethylene glycol主力 contract decreased by 86 yuan/ton to 4,003 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.1%. The spot price in East China dropped by 80 yuan/ton to 4,075 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.93% [8] - **Profit**: The profits of most ethylene-based production methods improved, with increases ranging from 18 - 81 yuan/ton and increases of 2.36 - 17.75%. The coal-based profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 388 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.52%. The natural gas-based and oilfield associated gas-based profits remained unchanged [8] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal-based, oil-based, polyester plant, and textile loom operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged, with a change of 0% [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 34,000 tons to 541,000 tons, a 6.71% increase. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 13,000 tons to 165,000 tons, a 7.30% decrease [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 17, the negotiation center of the East China US dollar market remained stable in the morning and declined in the afternoon, with no reported transactions. International crude oil continued to fall, and the ethylene glycol market price weakened. The East China price was negotiated at around 4,110 yuan/ton [9] - On October 17, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,780 yuan/ton for self-pickup. The mainstream market was weak, and downstream players purchased as needed [9] - On October 17, the mainstream market was weak, and the quotes of holders in the South China market were lowered. The market transactions were light, with the price at around 4,250 yuan/ton for delivery [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol主力 contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [10][12][14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the ethylene glycol market may be in a volatile pattern. Although the inventory decline and cost - end profit situation may limit the downside, the lack of obvious growth in demand and the decrease in trading volume and positions mean there is no driving force for an upward trend. Therefore, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: On August 1st, the ethylene glycol futures main - contract price closed at 4,439 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day, showing a volatile downward trend in the past five days. The East China spot price dropped by 5 yuan to 4,480 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 49 yuan to 51 yuan. The inter - period spread structure was divided, with the 5 - 9 spread widening by 13 yuan to 49 yuan and the 1 - 5 spread widening by 6 yuan to - 15 yuan [2]. - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased simultaneously. The trading volume decreased by 19.17% to 110,300 lots, and the open interest dropped by 6,030 lots to 239,400 lots, indicating a decline in market participation and short - term trading drive [3]. - **供给端**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 63.09%, but there was an obvious structural difference. The oil - based operating rate rose by 2.2 percentage points to 66.15%, while the coal - based operating rate dropped by 3 percentage points to 58.48%. All production processes were in the red, with the oil - based profit at - 119.9 dollars/ton and the coal - based profit stably at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained stable at 89.42% and 63.43% respectively, and terminal demand showed no seasonal fluctuations. Weaving enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [5]. - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased for two consecutive weeks, down 4.8 tons to 42.72 tons, a decline of 10.06%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang dropped by 13.5% to 12.8 tons. Although the arrival volume increased slightly to 16.87 tons, the improvement in port shipping efficiency promoted inventory clearance, and short - term spot circulation pressure was relieved [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main - contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.05% to 4,439 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price dropped by 0.11% to 4,480 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 16.33% [7]. - **价差情况**: The 5 - 9 spread widened by 36.11% to 49 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread widened by 66.67% to - 15 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25.93% to - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **利润情况**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 2.50% to - 123 dollars/ton, the ethylene - based profit decreased by 2.36% to - 712 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 12.00% to - 224 yuan/ton [7]. - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.21% to 63.1%, the coal - based operating rate decreased by 4.93% to 58.5%, and the oil - based operating rate increased by 3.46% to 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7]. - **库存与到港量**: The East China main - port inventory decreased by 10.06% to 42.7 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 13.51% to 12.8 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 6.10% to 16.87 tons [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 1st, the price of the East China US - dollar market moved down in the morning and fluctuated slightly in the afternoon, with no transactions reported. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pickup. - The mainstream market was weakly sorted, the South China market price remained stable at around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery. - The coking coal futures market continued to decline, which was negative for the cost end, and the ethylene glycol market followed the downward trend, with the East China price negotiated at around 4,480 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main - port inventory statistics, and total industry inventory [9][11][13].