1. Report Industry Investment Rating No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term conflict risk in the Middle East has not dissipated, and there is a possibility of situation downgrade in the medium - term. The market has lost trust in the extreme - pressure script, and the global asset volatility is increasing. The reversal of global liquidity expectations is the reason behind the invalidation of geopolitical credit. [2] - In the domestic market, Chinese assets have the attributes of a global safe - haven, but the A - share market is still in the stage of releasing external risk transmission and is difficult to remain unscathed. The current core investment strategy should be defensive counter - attack. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Trump postponed the attack on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6. The US and Iran are in a state of both negotiation and conflict. The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027, while the US economic growth rate will slow down. [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran is deadlocked. The international oil price has risen again, and the US dollar index has received safe - haven support. The RMB exchange rate is under pressure. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.85 mark. [3] - **Stock Index**: The stock index fell collectively due to the repeated situation in the Middle East. The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile, and the large - cap stock index shows relative advantages. [4][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to maintain a grid operation idea, buy more positions in batches when there are sharp drops, and sell high in a timely manner. [5][6] - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The container shipping index (European line) futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The short - term is expected to maintain a differentiated and volatile trend. [7][8] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the overall callback of the non - ferrous metal sector, it shows a wide - range shock. It has strong anti - decline attributes, and it is recommended to seize the low - level replenishment opportunity. [10][11] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon market maintains a wide - range shock, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance. The polysilicon market has prominent supply - demand imbalance, and the futures price has declined significantly. [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The macro - expectation suppresses the fundamentals, and the prices of domestic and foreign aluminum are weak. [15][17][18] - **Copper**: Affected by geopolitics, the copper price is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93000 - 96500 yuan/ton. [18][21] - **Zinc**: The price is mainly volatile, and the key drivers for the upward movement of non - ferrous metals are the Iranian situation and liquidity. [22] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The intraday trend is volatile. The new tax policy in Indonesia may affect the supply, and attention should be paid to the demand release rhythm. [23][24] - **Tin**: The short - term is regarded as volatile, and the key drivers for the upward movement are the Iranian situation and liquidity. [26] - **Lead**: The price is in a narrow - range shock, and it is expected to be strongly volatile. [26][27] Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The funds are gradually changing months. The large - supply logic remains unchanged in the medium - term, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired. It is recommended to hold the reverse spread between months. [28] - **Oils**: The market is in a volatile stage, waiting for the US biofuel policy. [29] Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The oil price fluctuates upward, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of chasing high. [31][32] - **Fuel Oil**: Wait for the opportunity to short at the absolute price. The market structure and profit are回调, but there is still support in the short - term. [32][33] - **Asphalt**: The cracking may be strong, and wait for the opportunity to short at the absolute price. The short - term is affected by geopolitical disturbances. [34] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to be strategically bullish on precious metals in the long - term, and pay attention to position control in the short - term. [36][37] - **Gold & Silver**: The prices are in a secondary adjustment. It is recommended to be strategically bullish in the long - term, and pay attention to support and resistance levels in the short - term. [38][39] Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The inventory of pulp has increased significantly, which has a negative impact on the futures price. The offset paper futures can try a short - selling strategy. [41][42][43] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the market fluctuates. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term. [44][45] - **LPG**: The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the bullish spread strategy after the callback. [46][47] - **PP Propylene**: The situation is unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [48][50] - **Plastic**: It is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [51][52] - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range shock, and the natural rubber is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for different varieties. [53][54][56] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply pressure is continuous, and the glass is restricted by supply and demand. Both are expected to be weakly volatile. [57][58] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term is affected by the rising cost of furnace materials, and the rebound height is limited. [59][60] - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mixture of long and short factors, showing a pattern of "strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term". [61][62] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuates widely with the energy supply expectation, and further rise depends on the energy logic driven by crude oil. [63][64] - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: There is cost support at the bottom, and the short - term may have a callback. [64] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The futures price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts. [66][67][68] - **Cotton**: The external market is strong. The short - term is affected by the macro - risk and supply increase, but there is support at the bottom. [68][69] - **Sugar**: The short - term may maintain a volatile pattern. [70][71] - **Eggs**: The price is slightly rising. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract. [72][73] - **Apples**: The futures price is strongly volatile, and the 05 contract is supported by the shortage of delivery products. [78][79] - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to sell for hedging at high prices. [80][81] - **Red Dates**: The price is under pressure and may be in a low - level shock. [82] - **Logs**: The spot price is rising, and it is recommended to conduct range trading and light - position long - buying. [83][84]

Group 1 - BASF announced price increases for all products in its home care, industrial and institutional cleaning, and industrial formulation business in Europe, with increases up to 30% for some selected products, effective immediately [1] - The price hikes are attributed to significant fluctuations in key raw material prices and supply, along with rising logistics, packaging, and energy costs [1] - The German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) warned that the ongoing conflict in Iran and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could severely impact the chemical industry, raising concerns about supply bottlenecks for ammonia, phosphate fertilizers, helium, and sulfur [2] Group 2 - Domestic chemical products maintain a global cost advantage, and with the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and North America, along with economic growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, bulk chemical products are expected to see an upturn in 2026 [2] - The current global energy landscape is undergoing significant adjustments, highlighting the importance of modern coal chemical technology in China, which is expected to lead to high-quality overseas expansion [3] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is constructing a leading global refining and intelligent refining base, with a network covering 30,000 gas stations and over 28,000 convenience stores, supporting high-quality development in the midstream sector [4] - Sinopec Oilfield Service is actively expanding its overseas market business, leveraging group resources for investments and services in oil and gas resources, refining, and chemical products [4] - Shanghai Petrochemical Company, a subsidiary of Sinopec, is a major integrated refining and chemical enterprise in China, producing synthetic fibers, resins, plastics, and petrochemical products [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The situation in Iran remains tense, leading to an increase in crude oil prices. The impact of the Iran situation is gradually expanding, with low traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and concerns about supply disruptions have caused the PX spot structure to turn into a Back structure, and the floating price has further strengthened [1]. - The PTA load has decreased, but the impact is smaller than that of PX. In March, inventory continued to accumulate, but the PTA trend is strong under cost support, and processing fees are compressed. In the medium to long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve, and the long - term outlook remains positive [2]. - The polyester and weaving loads are recovering, but there are signs of weakness in the downstream price increase. In recent days, the sales of filament have been continuously sluggish, and the inventory of filament and staple fiber has begun to accumulate. If the cost - side price remains high, attention needs to be paid to whether it will have a negative feedback effect such as production cuts on the downstream [2]. - The spot production profit of PF has increased, but downstream terminals cannot accept high costs, resulting in few high - price transactions of polyester yarn. Some spinning mills are considering production cuts, shutdowns, or product conversion [2]. - The processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to be strong. Although the overall supply has slightly increased, the circulating supply is still tight, and the inventory of bottle chip factories remains low [3]. - For trading strategies, it is advisable to cautiously go long and hedge PX/PTA/PF/PR at low prices. Before seeing actual troop withdrawals or negotiations, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still difficult to be smooth, and there are still cost support and supply concerns, but there is an expected negative feedback on the demand side, so it is not advisable to chase up or sell down [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][14] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [22][24] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [25][28][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, staple fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [46][48][56] PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][76][82] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, the price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [85][87][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January - February 2026, China's economy achieved a robust start, with core economic indicators exceeding expectations. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern has begun to reverse. The production side showed excellent performance, and the demand side's recovery momentum was also beyond expectations. However, there are still core short - boards in economic recovery, such as weak consumption of large - scale durable goods like cars and low real - estate sales [2]. - The conflict in the Persian Gulf continues to escalate, which has a significant impact on the global market. Gold and industrial metals have shown different trends. Gold's short - term correction is due to liquidity stampede under extreme panic, while industrial metals' differentiation is due to the rigidity difference in the industrial chain and supply chain [2]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are presented based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as the expected price range and investment strategies for lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and other products [8][9][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's economy achieved a "good start", and the economic data from January to February showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%. The real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. The global market focus is on the escalating Persian Gulf geopolitical situation [1][2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate moderately due to China's good economic start and policy support. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [2][3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The Middle East crisis is expected to ease, which may drive the stock index to repair. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index performing relatively well [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bonds were under pressure due to rising oil prices and improved economic data. The short - term bullish factors for the bond market are insufficient, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize. Short - term long positions are advised to wait for high - selling opportunities, and if the market continues to decline, they can buy at low prices [6][7]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The bottom support is solid. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the long - term value support from the industry fundamentals remains stable [8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a range - bound state. The industry is at the bottom of the current production cycle, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand pattern and the "anti - involution" process [10][11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East is a concern. The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is dominated by the war situation, and long positions or call options can be held. Alumina has mixed long and short news, and it is recommended to wait and see. Casting aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and attention can be paid to the price difference between it and aluminum [14][15][16]. - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the increase in copper price volatility. For industrial customers, pay attention to the replenishment opportunity when the price drops to the 98,000 - 99,000 range; for speculative customers, pay attention to the pressure around 100,000 and the support in the above - mentioned range [16][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is weak and volatile, and the upward pressure is high, waiting for the impact of energy costs [19]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weak in the short term and is expected to be strong in the medium term. Stainless steel has limited logical changes, and attention should be paid to the demand release rhythm [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: It is weak in the short term and the center of gravity is upward in the long term [22]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and gradually stop falling [22]. Oils and Fats & Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The short - term emotional high point has appeared. The large - supply logic in the medium term remains unchanged, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [24][25]. - **Oils**: The oil market follows the trend of crude oil and is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [25][26][27]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **SC**: The geopolitical situation dominates the pricing logic. The crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and the focus this week is on the actual passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the US - Iran conflict [28][29]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - level fluctuation continues, and the short - term strong pattern in the Asian fuel oil market is expected to continue [29][30]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term price is supported, but the demand is limited. Attention should be paid to position control and combined strategies [31]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They are oscillating strongly. In the long term, the bull market foundation remains, but short - term adjustments due to delayed interest - rate cut expectations should be vigilant. Attention should be paid to the impact of the FOMC meeting and other factors [32][33]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are oscillating weakly at a low level. Strategically, it is still recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the long term, and attention should be paid to the support levels [33][34][35]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely in the short and medium term, and the offset paper futures are expected to fluctuate within a range [37][38]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They are expected to be oscillating strongly before the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved, but the unilateral fluctuation is large, and risks should be noted [38][39][40]. - **PP & Propylene**: The short - term supply pressure of PP is limited, and propylene is expected to be strong in the future. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [40][41][42]. - **Plastic**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is suppressed by high prices. The market is mainly affected by news, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [43][44]. - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong wide - range oscillation, and natural rubber is expected to stabilize in oscillation. Specific investment strategies are provided [45][50][72]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash has high supply pressure, and glass has high inventory risks. The price is affected by multiple factors [51][52]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost of furnace materials supports the steel price, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the price increase. The steel price is expected to rebound in the short term, but the rebound height is limited [51][52]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is short - term strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices [53][54][55]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The supply - demand contradiction may deteriorate further. The coal - coke price has bottom support but is restricted by the oversupply problem [55][56][57]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: The cost support is increasing, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory pressure [57][58]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The pig price is supported by secondary fattening sentiment but lacks upward driving force. It is recommended to sell call options on the main hog contract [59]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is supported by the supply - demand situation in this and the next year. The import quota issuance may lead to a short - term correction, but the price is still likely to rise [60][61][62]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price may oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of ethanol and oil prices [62][63]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to rise in the long term due to increasing demand and rising costs. It is recommended to sell call options on the main egg contract [63][64][65]. - **Apples**: The apple futures are supported by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillation [73][74]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [74][75]. - **Logs**: The inventory decline reduces the pressure on the futures price, and the import cost increase provides support. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The inflation data in China in February 2026 exceeded market expectations. The economic is transitioning from policy - driven to endogenous recovery. CPI may face seasonal回调 pressure, while PPI is expected to turn positive as early as March. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict on inflation [1][2]. - The RMB exchange rate is affected by the US - Iran situation. In the short term, it is difficult for the RMB to start a trend appreciation, and the key lies in the change of corporate settlement willingness [3]. - The stock index is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and its subsequent trend depends on the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan policy documents after the Two Sessions [5]. - The bond market may have a short - term trading window, and long positions can be gradually entered [6]. - The container shipping European line futures are highly correlated with geopolitics and oil prices in the short term, with the sentiment side dominating. The main 04 contract is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern [11]. - For lithium carbonate, in the long - term, the industry fundamentals support its value, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [15]. - The silicon industry chain is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [17]. - The aluminum industry chain has obvious price fluctuations, and the short - term trend is dominated by the war situation. Alumina has short - term fluctuations and long - term over - supply. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum [21]. - Copper shows resilience, and industrial customers can replenish inventory according to price ranges, while speculative customers can consider volatility - increasing strategies [25]. - Zinc is weak in the short term and strong in the medium term [26]. - Nickel - stainless steel oscillates repeatedly, and the market is affected by factors such as RKAB revision and sulfur import blockage [28]. - Tin follows the overall market fluctuations, and the ma60 support level still exists [30]. - Lead is in a weak shock state, and interval operations are recommended [31]. - For oilseeds, the internal market may be strong in the short term, and strategies such as positive spreads between months or widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be considered [33]. - Oils may maintain a high - level operation if diesel prices remain stable [34]. - The crude oil market is mainly affected by the Middle - East situation, and short - term attention should be paid to factors such as the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the attitudes of the US and Iran [37]. - Fuel oil maintains a strong pattern in the short term [40]. - Asphalt prices follow the change of crude oil prices, and there may be a downward trend after the geopolitical disturbance subsides [41]. - Platinum and palladium are in an oscillating and strengthening state. In the long - term, the bull market foundation still exists, but short - term adjustments should be vigilant [46]. - Gold and silver are strategically bullish, and dips can be regarded as opportunities for long - term layout [48]. - Pulp futures can be traded in the short - term within an interval, and a low - long strategy can be considered in the medium - term. Offset printing paper futures can try a high - short strategy [53]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be strong before the Strait of Hormuz passage problem is solved, but attention should be paid to callback risks [56]. - LPG price is affected by the Middle - East war, and the length of the Strait of Hormuz blockade determines its price trend [58]. - Methanol may catch up with the increase of olefins next week, but attention should be paid to the risks of geopolitical relaxation and monomer price reduction [61]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain a strong trend before the Middle - East situation eases [63]. - Rubber is jointly affected by macro - sentiment and synthetic rubber trends, with multiple and short factors intertwined. In the medium - term, a long - on - dips view can be taken, and light positions are recommended [71]. - For soda ash, the supply may be affected by maintenance, and the price space is limited. For glass, the recovery of supply and high intermediate inventory limit its upward space [72][73]. - For steel products, the cost provides support, but the rebound height is limited [75]. - Iron ore has a high valuation, and its price is affected by supply, demand and geopolitical factors [76]. - Coking coal and coke have an over - supply problem, which restricts their price elasticity [79]. - Ferroalloys have cost support, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand [81]. - For live pigs, the price is affected by feed costs, and a short - call option strategy can be considered [84]. - Cotton prices may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts and foreign trade policies [87]. - Sugar futures are strong, driven by rising oil prices and valuation repair [90]. - Eggs are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upward space, and short - call options can be sold [91]. - Apples' 05 contract maintains a strong shock pattern due to the scarcity of delivery products [99]. - Red dates may maintain a low - level shock due to insufficient demand drive [101]. - Log futures are affected by geopolitical sentiment, and an interval trading strategy can be adopted [102]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic inflation data in February 2026 exceeded expectations. The economic is transitioning to endogenous recovery. Attention should be paid to the inflation impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is affected by the US - Iran situation. In the short term, it is difficult for the RMB to start a trend appreciation, and attention should be paid to corporate settlement willingness, domestic export data and US inflation index [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and its subsequent trend depends on the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan policy documents after the Two Sessions [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market may have a short - term trading window, and long positions can be gradually entered [6]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures are highly correlated with geopolitics and oil prices in the short term, with the sentiment side dominating. The main 04 contract is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern [11]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the long - term, the industry fundamentals support its value, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [15]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The silicon industry chain is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [17]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price fluctuations are obvious. The short - term trend is dominated by the war situation. Alumina has short - term fluctuations and long - term over - supply. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum [21]. - **Copper**: It shows resilience. Industrial customers can replenish inventory according to price ranges, while speculative customers can consider volatility - increasing strategies [25]. - **Zinc**: It is weak in the short term and strong in the medium term [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It oscillates repeatedly, and the market is affected by factors such as RKAB revision and sulfur import blockage [28]. - **Tin**: It follows the overall market fluctuations, and the ma60 support level still exists [30]. - **Lead**: It is in a weak shock state, and interval operations are recommended [31]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The internal market may be strong in the short term, and strategies such as positive spreads between months or widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal can be considered [33]. - **Oils**: They may maintain a high - level operation if diesel prices remain stable [34]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The market is mainly affected by the Middle - East situation, and short - term attention should be paid to factors such as the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the attitudes of the US and Iran [37]. - **Fuel Oil**: It maintains a strong pattern in the short term [40]. - **Asphalt**: Its prices follow the change of crude oil prices, and there may be a downward trend after the geopolitical disturbance subsides [41]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in an oscillating and strengthening state. In the long - term, the bull market foundation still exists, but short - term adjustments should be vigilant [46]. - **Gold and Silver**: They are strategically bullish, and dips can be regarded as opportunities for long - term layout [48]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Printing Paper**: Pulp futures can be traded in the short - term within an interval, and a low - long strategy can be considered in the medium - term. Offset printing paper futures can try a high - short strategy [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They are expected to be strong before the Strait of Hormuz passage problem is solved, but attention should be paid to callback risks [56]. - **LPG**: Its price is affected by the Middle - East war, and the length of the Strait of Hormuz blockade determines its price trend [58]. - **Methanol**: It may catch up with the increase of olefins next week, but attention should be paid to the risks of geopolitical relaxation and monomer price reduction [61]. - **Plastic PP**: They are expected to maintain a strong trend before the Middle - East situation eases [63]. - **Rubber**: It is jointly affected by macro - sentiment and synthetic rubber trends, with multiple and short factors intertwined. In the medium - term, a long - on - dips view can be taken, and light positions are recommended [71]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the supply may be affected by maintenance, and the price space is limited. For glass, the recovery of supply and high intermediate inventory limit its upward space [72][73]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil**: The cost provides support, but the rebound height is limited [75]. - **Iron Ore**: It has a high valuation, and its price is affected by supply, demand and geopolitical factors [76]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They have an over - supply problem, which restricts their price elasticity [79]. - **Ferroalloys**: They have cost support, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand [81]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price is affected by feed costs, and a short - call option strategy can be considered [84]. - **Cotton**: Its prices may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts and foreign trade policies [87]. - **Sugar**: Its futures are strong, driven by rising oil prices and valuation repair [90]. - **Eggs**: They are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upward space, and short - call options can be sold [91]. - **Apples**: The 05 contract maintains a strong shock pattern due to the scarcity of delivery products [99]. - **Red Dates**: They may maintain a low - level shock due to insufficient demand drive [101]. - **Logs**: The futures are affected by geopolitical sentiment, and an interval trading strategy can be adopted [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautiously bullish stance on the unilateral trading of ethylene glycol (EG), indicating a positive outlook for the industry in March [3]. Core Viewpoints - Due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, some domestic EG production facilities have implemented preventive production cuts, resulting in a daily EG output loss of around 900 - 1000 tons. This has contributed to the continued rise in EG prices [1]. - The overall fundamental supply - demand logic shows that the domestic EG production load is at a high level, but the preventive production cuts may expand. Overseas EG production load has dropped to a low level, reducing import pressure. On the demand side, post - holiday demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory of domestic and foreign textile and clothing products is not high. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking actions and textile and clothing export orders after the reduction of nominal tariffs [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4025 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (2.55%) from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3928 yuan/ton, up 178 yuan/ton (4.75%). The basis of EG in the East China spot market was - 56 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 63 US dollars/ton (up 2 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 965 yuan/ton (up 136 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Price Difference - The report mentions the international price difference of EG: US FOB - China CFR, but no specific data is provided [20]. Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The report provides information on the sales and production rates of filaments, short fibers, and the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips, but no specific data is given [21][26][27]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 100.2 tons (up 2.0 tons month - on - month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 10.8 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.6 tons, showing a decrease. It is expected that the inventory at the main ports will remain stable [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The situation in the Iran war has escalated, spreading to countries around the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic and South Korean refineries may reduce their loads, affecting the supply of aromatics such as PX and pure benzene [3] - The port inventory of pure benzene remains at a high level, and there is an expectation of a decline from the high level. Attention should be paid to whether the load reduction of South Korean refineries will materialize and whether the shipment volume of South Korean pure benzene will decline. The downstream开工率 is performing well [3] - The port inventory of styrene continues to rise seasonally, but there are still some maintenance plans in March in China and concentrated maintenance in Europe and the United States in April, so there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the future [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The basis of the pure benzene main contract is - 86 yuan/ton (+105), and the spread between the East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 130 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene: The basis of the styrene main contract is 74 yuan/ton (+135 yuan/ton) [1] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The processing fee of pure benzene CFR China is 120 US dollars/ton (- 21 US dollars/ton), and the processing fee of pure benzene FOB South Korea is 118 US dollars/ton (- 19 US dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea for pure benzene is 116.4 US dollars/ton (- 26.8 US dollars/ton) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is 340 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton), with an expected gradual compression [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 30.30 tons (- 0.10 tons), and the operating rate is expected to decline from the high level [1][3] - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 175,600 tons (+17,500 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 101,000 tons (+13,800 tons), and the operating rate is 74.7% (+1.5%). It is in the inventory rebuilding stage, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the future [1][3] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 252 yuan/ton (+78 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 12.18% (+12.18%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 373 yuan/ton (+53 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 49.40% (- 0.30%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is - 869 yuan/ton (+231 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 70.70% (+1.80%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 775 yuan/ton (+35), and the operating rate is 74.46% (+0.36%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 258 yuan/ton (+423), and the operating rate of phenol is 88.00% (- 1.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is 1198 yuan/ton (- 56), and the operating rate is 89.12% (- 0.46%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 558 yuan/ton (+17), and the operating rate is 71.50% (+0.00%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading to increased international oil and gas prices due to various factors including heightened risk aversion [4]. Short-term Analysis - Traditional chemical product cost centers are rising, while the price advantage of green hydrogen and ammonia continues to expand. The geopolitical conflict is pushing international oil and gas prices into an upward trajectory, which in turn raises the costs of traditional synthetic methanol and ammonia. However, the costs of green hydrogen and ammonia are decoupled from international oil and gas prices, primarily influenced by domestic green electricity prices. The rising prices of traditional chemical products and the declining domestic green electricity prices are expected to narrow the cost gap between green and traditional hydrogen and ammonia products, enhancing the willingness and economic feasibility of substitution in downstream sectors such as fertilizers and shipping fuels, thus creating new demand and development space for the green hydrogen and ammonia industry [5]. Medium to Long-term Analysis - The geopolitical conflict reinforces the energy security narrative, positioning green hydrogen and ammonia as core elements of self-sufficiency. China's reliance on foreign oil remains high, projected to stay around 70% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The impact of geopolitical conflicts on international oil and gas prices will directly affect the supply chain costs and security of China's chemical industry. In this context, domestic policies are increasingly focused on building self-sufficiency in the energy and chemical industry chain. Green hydrogen and ammonia, utilizing domestic green electricity and biomass as core raw materials, have a high degree of domestic equipment and production localization, aligning with both energy security and dual carbon goals. This sector has become a key focus for policy support, being included in six major future industries and the establishment of a national low-carbon transition fund to cultivate new growth points in hydrogen energy and green fuels [6].

Summary of Conference Call on Geopolitical Risks and Chemical Industry Industry Overview - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly increased shipping costs, with freight rates reportedly rising by "three times" [1][2] - Global shipping capacity is tight, leading to increased landed costs for commodities such as crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and chemical products, directly impacting global chemical prices [1] Key Points and Arguments Ethylene and Chemical Products - Ethylene is a core basic chemical highly sensitive to oil prices and transportation disruptions [4] - Companies producing ethylene from coal and those using ethane as a byproduct are likely to benefit from rising oil prices, while MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) processes face greater cost pressures [6] - China's polyethylene imports heavily depend on the Middle East, particularly Iran and Israel. A significant disruption in Iran could lead to a polyethylene supply gap and price surge [1][7] Methanol Supply and Pricing - Iran accounts for about 10% of global methanol production, with a significant portion exported to China. Disruptions in Iranian methanol supply could widen China's supply gap [11][14] - Recent price increases in coastal methanol may not be sustainable due to inventory release pressures and regional price disparities [12][14] Potash and Fertilizer Market - China relies on imports for about 60% of its potash, with the Middle East being a crucial supplier. Disruptions could lead to rapid price increases [1][16] - The potential for a supply gap in urea due to Middle Eastern disruptions may not immediately benefit the Chinese market due to overcapacity and export restrictions [15] Bromine and Other Chemicals - Bromine supply is highly concentrated in Israel and Jordan, with potential disruptions leading to significant price increases. Historical price spikes have been observed during similar geopolitical tensions [18][21] - The supply chain for propylene and polypropylene faces challenges due to rapid price increases in raw materials, leading to profitability pressures for PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) processes [8] Global Supply Dynamics - The global chemical supply landscape is shifting towards "East rising, West declining," with accelerated capacity exits in Japan, South Korea, and Europe. This trend may create a favorable window for Chinese chemical companies [2][19][20] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to push global prices higher and accelerate the exit of Western capacities, benefiting Chinese firms with advanced technologies and higher utilization rates [20][21] Additional Important Insights - The interconnectedness of energy prices and chemical products suggests that rising oil prices could lead to broader inflationary pressures across various chemical sectors [24] - The potential for a supply gap in the "second olefins" market (like butadiene) is influenced by the exit of Japanese and European capacities, which may create opportunities for Chinese producers [10][21] - The overall sentiment indicates that while immediate disruptions may create price spikes, the long-term sustainability of these price increases will depend on domestic production capabilities and inventory management [14][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that chemical product prices are expected to continue rising due to tightening supply and demand, increasing raw material costs, and strong market sentiment, with significant price spread expansions observed in January 2026 [1] Group 2 - In January 2026, the price spread for butadiene was 4630 CNY/ton, up 65% month-on-month [2] - The price spread for PDH was 48 USD/ton, also up 65% month-on-month [3] - The price spread for urea was 411 CNY/ton, increasing by 44% month-on-month [4] - The price spread for PTA was 1006 CNY/ton, rising by 22% month-on-month [5] Group 3 - Butadiene prices are supported by tightening supply due to some companies halting exports and improved downstream demand, particularly in synthetic rubber production [2] - PDH price spreads are expanding due to increased maintenance shutdowns and supply-demand mismatches, leading to higher propylene prices [3] - Urea prices are driven by strong demand from manufacturers ahead of the Spring Festival and low inventory levels [4] - PTA prices are supported by rising international oil prices and cost pressures, with production cuts in the polyester sector expected to take effect [5]