买方罢工
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瑞穗:日债“买方罢工”行情将在周末大选后终结,机构正待收益率触及“买入点”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 02:25
Group 1 - Investors are expected to return to the long-term Japanese government bond market following the upcoming snap elections, with large asset management firms viewing a 2.5% yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds as a buying trigger [1] - Jordan Rochester, the macro strategy head at Mizuho Bank, noted that the uncertainty surrounding the elections is likely to dissipate, potentially ending the current strike by long-term buyers [1] - Major Japanese investors, including life insurance companies and asset management firms, are waiting for yields to rise slightly before making purchases, with current yields hovering around 2.25% [1] Group 2 - Ahead of Prime Minister Kishida's announcement of early elections, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to 2.38%, the highest level since 1999 [4] - Domestic investors have been avoiding the long-term bond market due to concerns over increasing fiscal worries and market volatility, which has weakened demand despite some foreign investors filling the gap [4] - The Japanese government plans to issue approximately 700 billion yen (about 4.5 billion USD) in 30-year bonds next Thursday, which will test the demand for long-term Japanese government bonds [4] Group 3 - Rochester anticipates that the 10-year Japanese government bond yield could rise to 3% by the end of the year, driven by higher demand for longer-term government bond premiums and Japan's economic recovery from years of deflation [4]