每经AI快讯，12月19日，30年期日本国债收益率上涨4个基点，至3.415%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

每经AI快讯，12月15日，30年期日本国债收益率上涨2个基点，至3.37%。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月11日，30年期日本国债收益率下跌3个基点，至3.365%。 ...

Core Insights - Global markets are currently experiencing a short-term oscillation and a complex interplay of major central bank policies, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a rising probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike [1][2] Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting on December 12-13, while the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on December 19 [2] - Kristina Hooper from Man Group highlights that the rising yield of Japanese government bonds could increase borrowing costs for governments already facing challenges [2] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures are collectively declining, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.07%, and Dow futures down 0.10% [3][4] - The Japanese 10-year government bond yield fell by 2 basis points to 1.855% following strong auction demand [3][4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains stable at 4.08% [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in November, with the largest decline in four months due to weak orders [2] - Upcoming economic reports, including the November ADP private sector employment report and the preliminary consumer confidence index for December, are expected to provide further insights into the labor market and inflation [2] Group 4: Commodity and Cryptocurrency Trends - Gold prices fell by 0.6% to $4206.48 per ounce, while silver dropped over 1.2% to $57.27 per ounce [4][9] - Bitcoin rebounded by 0.7% to $87053.6, following a significant sell-off that led to nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated [4][13]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield is expected to fall below 3% next year due to its current yield premium over the 10-year yield being significantly higher than similar overseas bonds [1] Group 1: Investment Demand - Large institutional investors, such as Japanese insurance companies and banks, show limited interest in the 30-year Japanese government bonds [1] - Global investors may find these ultra-long bonds attractive due to the substantial premium over the 10-year yield [1] Group 2: Global Investment Strategy - U.S. investors, including Pimco, may prefer investing in Japanese government bonds to extend duration rather than extending the interest rate curve in other markets [1]

国外 1. 三菱日联：美国政府结束停摆将降低数据不确定性和提振投资者情绪 金十数据11月10日讯，三菱日联新加坡分行高级货币分析师Lloyd Chan表示，结束政府停摆的协议可能 会引发显著的市场反应，主要体现在降低数据不确定性和提振投资者情绪。近期美国股市的反弹似乎是 由技术性复苏和市场对政府停摆即将结束的乐观情绪共同推动的。 2. 花旗：日本30年期国债收益率料将维持区间波动 花旗投资研究的Tomohisa Fujiki在一份报告中称，未来一段时间30年期日本国债的复合收益率可能会保 持在3%至3.2%的区间内。该策略师表示："我们认为，无论预算规模如何，发行规模的缩减都将为超长 期债券提供支撑。"花旗预计，20年期和30年期日本国债每次标售的规模将减少1,000亿日元，并预计明 年40年期日本国债的发行速度将放缓。他说，市场可能会继续受美国动态的影响，但随着7-9月GDP萎 缩得到证实，市场对日本央行12月加息的定价应该会减弱。据Tradeweb的数据，30年期日本国债收益率 上升0.3个基点，至3.136%。 3. 高盛：美资大举流入日本股市，参与度达三年来最高水平 高盛表示，越来越多的美国投资者正买 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding Japan's new Prime Minister's potential increase in borrowing, which may lead to a surge in long-term Japanese government bond yields, possibly triggering a repeat of the "Japanese bond sell-off storm" that previously impacted global financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - The new Prime Minister, high市早苗, is expected to revive "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive fiscal stimulus and a cautious stance on monetary tightening, which has led to significant market volatility [2][3]. - The "Sanae trade" reflects market expectations of stronger fiscal stimulus and mild monetary policy, resulting in a rapid rise in Japanese stock prices and a depreciation of the yen [2][3]. Group 2: Bond Yield Predictions - Claire Huang from Amundi predicts that the 30-year Japanese government bond yield could exceed 3.5%, representing an increase of nearly 40 basis points from recent trading levels [1][2]. - The 30-year bond yield recently reached 3.345%, the highest since its issuance in 1999, indicating a trend of poor performance for Japanese long-term bonds this year [2][3]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The potential for rising inflation and the unclear specifics of high市's economic measures may deter investors from returning to long-term Japanese bonds until more clarity is provided [3]. - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is projected to face upward risks, potentially reaching 1.8%, as the Bank of Japan gradually reduces its bond holdings under the yield curve control policy [4]. Group 4: Global Context and Currency Implications - The "term premium" phenomenon, where investors demand higher yields for holding long-term bonds, is becoming more pronounced, particularly in the U.S. bond market, which may influence Japanese bond yields [4][5]. - The depreciation of the yen, which has fallen approximately 2.5% recently, could strengthen the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, as higher import costs contribute to domestic inflation pressures [5].

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.0% and SoftBank Group falling more than 10% [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index reached historical highs recently, influenced by the appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister, but experts warn of potential long-term risks associated with her economic policies [2] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices saw significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 2% before rebounding above $4,070 per ounce, marking a daily decline of approximately 1% [2] - On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 14, experiencing a single-day drop of $250, or 6.3%, the largest since April 2013 [4] - The silver market also faced pressure, with spot silver dropping over 1.17% [2] Influencing Factors - Market analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to reduced risk appetite, a strengthening dollar, and profit-taking by investors concerned about overvaluation following recent historic highs [5] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including a joint statement from European leaders supporting negotiations for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has further diminished safe-haven demand [5] - Despite the recent downturn, long-term factors supporting gold prices, such as central bank purchases, remain intact, with analysts expecting a recovery in gold prices in the coming months [5]

Core Points - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds has decreased by 5 basis points to 3.175% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1]

Core Points - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 3 basis points to 3.160% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1] - The current yield level may reflect broader economic conditions and monetary policy expectations in Japan [1] - This movement in bond yields could influence investment strategies and capital flows within the financial markets [1]