品浩(Pimco)的一位投资组合经理表示，明年30年期日本国债收益率可能回落至3%以下，因其当前收益 率较10年期收益率溢价远高于海外同类债券。日本保险公司和银行等通常需求旺盛的大型投资者对30年 期日本国债兴趣寥寥，全球投资者可能会因其与10年期收益率的大幅溢价而认为这种超长期债券"颇具 吸引力"。从全球投资机会来看，相较于延长其他市场的利率曲线，Pimco等美国投资者可能更倾向于投 资日本政府债券以延长久期。 ...

国外 1. 三菱日联：美国政府结束停摆将降低数据不确定性和提振投资者情绪 金十数据11月10日讯，三菱日联新加坡分行高级货币分析师Lloyd Chan表示，结束政府停摆的协议可能 会引发显著的市场反应，主要体现在降低数据不确定性和提振投资者情绪。近期美国股市的反弹似乎是 由技术性复苏和市场对政府停摆即将结束的乐观情绪共同推动的。 2. 花旗：日本30年期国债收益率料将维持区间波动 花旗投资研究的Tomohisa Fujiki在一份报告中称，未来一段时间30年期日本国债的复合收益率可能会保 持在3%至3.2%的区间内。该策略师表示："我们认为，无论预算规模如何，发行规模的缩减都将为超长 期债券提供支撑。"花旗预计，20年期和30年期日本国债每次标售的规模将减少1,000亿日元，并预计明 年40年期日本国债的发行速度将放缓。他说，市场可能会继续受美国动态的影响，但随着7-9月GDP萎 缩得到证实，市场对日本央行12月加息的定价应该会减弱。据Tradeweb的数据，30年期日本国债收益率 上升0.3个基点，至3.136%。 3. 高盛：美资大举流入日本股市，参与度达三年来最高水平 高盛表示，越来越多的美国投资者正买 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding Japan's new Prime Minister's potential increase in borrowing, which may lead to a surge in long-term Japanese government bond yields, possibly triggering a repeat of the "Japanese bond sell-off storm" that previously impacted global financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - The new Prime Minister, high市早苗, is expected to revive "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive fiscal stimulus and a cautious stance on monetary tightening, which has led to significant market volatility [2][3]. - The "Sanae trade" reflects market expectations of stronger fiscal stimulus and mild monetary policy, resulting in a rapid rise in Japanese stock prices and a depreciation of the yen [2][3]. Group 2: Bond Yield Predictions - Claire Huang from Amundi predicts that the 30-year Japanese government bond yield could exceed 3.5%, representing an increase of nearly 40 basis points from recent trading levels [1][2]. - The 30-year bond yield recently reached 3.345%, the highest since its issuance in 1999, indicating a trend of poor performance for Japanese long-term bonds this year [2][3]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The potential for rising inflation and the unclear specifics of high市's economic measures may deter investors from returning to long-term Japanese bonds until more clarity is provided [3]. - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is projected to face upward risks, potentially reaching 1.8%, as the Bank of Japan gradually reduces its bond holdings under the yield curve control policy [4]. Group 4: Global Context and Currency Implications - The "term premium" phenomenon, where investors demand higher yields for holding long-term bonds, is becoming more pronounced, particularly in the U.S. bond market, which may influence Japanese bond yields [4][5]. - The depreciation of the yen, which has fallen approximately 2.5% recently, could strengthen the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, as higher import costs contribute to domestic inflation pressures [5].

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.0% and SoftBank Group falling more than 10% [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index reached historical highs recently, influenced by the appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister, but experts warn of potential long-term risks associated with her economic policies [2] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices saw significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 2% before rebounding above $4,070 per ounce, marking a daily decline of approximately 1% [2] - On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 14, experiencing a single-day drop of $250, or 6.3%, the largest since April 2013 [4] - The silver market also faced pressure, with spot silver dropping over 1.17% [2] Influencing Factors - Market analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to reduced risk appetite, a strengthening dollar, and profit-taking by investors concerned about overvaluation following recent historic highs [5] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including a joint statement from European leaders supporting negotiations for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has further diminished safe-haven demand [5] - Despite the recent downturn, long-term factors supporting gold prices, such as central bank purchases, remain intact, with analysts expecting a recovery in gold prices in the coming months [5]

Core Points - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds has decreased by 5 basis points to 3.175% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1]

Core Points - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 3 basis points to 3.160% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1] - The current yield level may reflect broader economic conditions and monetary policy expectations in Japan [1] - This movement in bond yields could influence investment strategies and capital flows within the financial markets [1]

Group 1 - BlueBay Asset Management has established a long position in the Japanese yen, betting on a leadership change in Japan and a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, which could strengthen the yen further [1] - The company shorted the US dollar when the USD/JPY exchange rate approached 150, believing that action from the Bank of Japan in October is likely [1] - Investors view the newly announced candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, as more supportive of interest rate hikes compared to his potential rival, Sanae Takaichi, who is seen as favoring loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - BlueBay expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to fluctuate towards 140 in the short term, with a fair value closer to 135 in the medium term; the yen has depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency among the G10 [1] - The company's views contrast with hedge funds, which have increased short positions in the yen for four consecutive weeks, while strategists from Bank of America and HSBC also predict further depreciation of the yen [4] - BlueBay has increased its yen positions in the past month, driven by indications from Bank of Japan officials that policy normalization is on track, barring political risks [4] Group 3 - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year is currently estimated at around 60%, according to overnight index swaps (OIS) pricing [4] - The political and fiscal uncertainties in Japan have pushed up long-term government bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield recently reaching a historical high of 3.285% [4] - If Koizumi wins the LDP leadership election and the Bank of Japan implements a rate hike, BlueBay may consider shifting to a long position in long-term Japanese government bonds [5]

Core Viewpoint - BlueBay Asset Management has established a long position in the Japanese yen, betting on a political transition in Japan and a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, which could strengthen the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - BlueBay's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Dowding, has taken a position in USD/JPY just below 150, anticipating a high likelihood of action in October [1]. - The firm expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to drop to around 140 in the short term, with a reasonable mid-term rate close to 135 [2]. Group 2: Political Context - Japanese Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has announced his candidacy for the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), with investors believing he is more supportive of interest rate hikes compared to his rival, Sanae Takaichi [1]. - The LDP, Japan's largest ruling party, will hold its leadership election on October 4, following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after a poor showing in the July elections [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Despite political turmoil, there is speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again this year, with traders increasing bets on further tightening of monetary policy [2]. - Current overnight index swap trading indicates a 60% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of the year [2]. Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The uncertainty in Japan's political and fiscal landscape has led to a rise in ultra-long bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a historical high of 3.285% earlier this month [2]. - BlueBay currently holds a long position in 30-year Japanese government bonds and may consider shifting to a long position in long-term bonds if Koizumi wins the LDP leadership and the Bank of Japan raises rates [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in global long-term bond yields is driven by overlapping factors including fiscal concerns, monetary policy, and supply-demand dynamics related to term premium effects [1][6]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - A global bond sell-off has been observed, particularly affecting long-term bonds, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5% for the first time since July [3]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a historic high of 3.286%, reflecting a cumulative increase of 100 basis points this year due to high inflation and low real interest rates [3]. - The 30-year UK bond yield hit its highest level since 1998 at 5.75%, while the 30-year French bond yield also exceeded levels seen in 2008 [3][6]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Increases - Analysts indicate that the sell-off is driven by concerns over fiscal and monetary policies, compounded by political risks in various countries [6][8]. - The increase in bond issuance and a decline in traditional long-bond buyers have removed previous mechanisms that helped lower yields [7]. - The market is increasingly skeptical about central banks' ability to control inflation in the medium term, particularly regarding the independence of central banks like the Federal Reserve [6][7]. Group 3: Political and Economic Risks - The UK faces a £35 billion budget deficit, raising investor concerns about fiscal policy effectiveness [8]. - France is attempting to implement a $51 billion budget cut to curb its deficit, but political divisions complicate these efforts [8]. - Japan's political instability, highlighted by resignations within the ruling party, raises concerns about future fiscal policies and potential increases in the fiscal deficit [8][9]. Group 4: Seasonal and Technical Factors - Historical data shows that September is typically a poor month for long-term bonds, with a median decline of 2% over the past decade [10]. - Technical liquidity factors, including significant cash withdrawals from the banking system, are expected to impact the bond market in September [10].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has turned downward from a 17-year high, with strong demand observed in the latest auction, indicating a potential easing of investor concerns regarding a sell-off in long-term Japanese bonds [1][4][8] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.60%, after reaching 1.625% on Monday, which is close to the highest level since 2008 [1][4] - The auction results showed a significant increase in the bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year bonds, rising from 3.06 to 3.92, indicating robust demand compared to the average over the past 12 months [1][4] Group 2 - The successful issuance of the bonds has alleviated global investor anxiety about a potential sell-off in long-term Japanese bonds, which had been under pressure due to concerns over the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and government spending [4][8] - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor reiterated the established monetary policy path to raise the benchmark interest rate when conditions allow, without indicating when this might occur [5] - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming auction of 30-year bonds, which could impact secondary market demand for bonds [6][7] Group 3 - Political uncertainty remains a concern, as the ruling party is set to release a report on its recent electoral losses, which could affect the stability of Prime Minister Kishida [6][7] - The market is speculating on potential changes in leadership within the ruling party, which could influence long-term bond yields [7][8] - The demand for long-term Japanese bonds appears to be driven by expectations of a potential reduction in the issuance of ultra-long government bonds following discussions with primary dealers [7][8]