独立宏观策略师、前日本金融厅顾问Harry Ishikawa说，"情况不妙，你无法粉饰它，财务省会试图给它 设上限，他们会调整发行或其他任何手段来做到这一点。" 在美国总统特朗普试图罢免美联储理事库克后，日本国债收益率周二测试了历史高点，因为特朗普此举 引发了市场对一个可能变得更鸽派的美联储的担忧。 周二，30年期日本国债收益率重回3.215%的历史最高点，在特朗普宣布消息后，类似期限的美债收益 率跳升了5个基点，从而拉高了日债收益率。 最长期限的日本国债收益率创下前所未有的高点，使东京旨在控制这个发达世界最重债务负担（约占 GDP的250%）的目标变得复杂化。日本财务大臣加藤胜信周二表示，财务省将密切监控日本国债市场 的动向，并推行适当的债务管理。 共同社报道称，财务省计划在下一财年的预算中为偿债成本申请超过32万亿日元（约2172亿美元）的资 金，这是一个创纪录的数额。 作为世界上最大的债权国，且主权收益率在全球范围内属于最低之列，日本市场对其他市场的利率变动 高度敏感。 "如果没有买家，收益率将不可避免地继续小幅走高，而现在没有投资者愿意购买30年期的 日本国债，如果市场预期美联储将放任通胀，那么美国长 ...

30年期日本国债收益率下跌1个基点至3.12%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield has decreased by 1 basis point to 3.08% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 30-year Japanese government bond yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term debt securities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that the outcome of the upcoming elections in Japan could significantly impact the 30-year Japanese government bond yield, with potential scenarios leading to yields ranging from 2.90% to 3.2% depending on the ruling party's performance [1] Group 1: Election Impact on Bond Yields - If the ruling party wins a majority, moderate fiscal stimulus measures may lower the 30-year Japanese government bond yield to approximately 2.90% [1] - Conversely, if the ruling party fails to secure a majority, the prospect of large-scale fiscal stimulus could push the 30-year bond yield up to 3.2% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Investor Sentiment - Following market deterioration in May, the ultra-long Japanese government bonds temporarily stabilized, but weak supply and demand dynamics resurfaced after the July auction of 30-year bonds [1] - Investors remain concerned about the risks to Japan's fiscal discipline amid a backdrop of structural supply and demand weakness [1]

Group 1 - Concerns are rising over Japan's fiscal expansion as the Senate elections approach, leading to increased focus on the demand for long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB) and potential global financial market impacts [1][2] - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield has reached a 25-year high, with the 30-year yield also surpassing the critical 3% mark, reflecting investor anxiety over ongoing budget deficits [2][5] - Major institutional investors in Japan, including banks and insurance companies, are expected to be cautious in bidding for JGBs, awaiting the Senate election results and their implications for fiscal policy [5][6] Group 2 - The upcoming auction results for the 20-year JGB will be closely monitored, particularly the bid-to-cover ratio and tail value, which indicate investor interest and demand strength [6] - Recent adjustments to Japan's borrowing plans aim to curb rising yields, but market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued upward pressure on yields [6][7] - The potential for a return of "term premium" in the bond market is highlighted, as rising yields in Japan could spill over into U.S. Treasury yields, leading to increased market volatility [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 30-year Japanese government bond auction is seen as a test for policymakers to stabilize the bond market after significant volatility, with long-term bond yields reaching historical highs in May [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - Japanese bond yields have decreased from their peak due to the Ministry of Finance's strategy to reduce the issuance of long-term bonds and the Bank of Japan slowing down its bond purchase reductions [1] - There is a cautious market sentiment, particularly regarding the 30-year bonds, as global scrutiny on long-term bonds increases amid rising government deficits [1][3] - The demand for Japanese long-term bonds is weakening, reflecting a decrease in purchases by traditional buyers like life insurance companies [1] Group 2: Auction Insights and Expectations - The upcoming auction results will be closely monitored, particularly the bid-to-cover ratio, which indicates investor demand; the last auction had a ratio of 2.92, below the average of 3.33 over the past year [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to cut the issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds by 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 22 billion USD) by the end of March 2026 [6] Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming national elections in Japan may suppress demand for the bond auction, as potential changes in fiscal policy could arise depending on election outcomes [7] - The Prime Minister has prioritized salary increases and achieving a 1 trillion yen economic target as key campaign promises, which may influence market dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds showed strong performance, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.51, higher than the 12-month average of 3.14, indicating reduced upward pressure on long-term bond yields due to weakened expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][4] - Following a poorly received 20-year bond auction in May that led to record high yields for ultra-long bonds, the Japanese government has adjusted its bond issuance plan to stabilize demand, maintaining the issuance volume of 10-year bonds while reducing that of 20, 30, and 40-year bonds [4] - The sentiment in the Japanese bond market appears positive as the Ministry of Finance's decision to reduce ultra-long bond issuance has been well-received, although caution remains regarding the upcoming 30-year bond auction [4][5] Group 2 - The 10-year Japanese government bond serves as a benchmark for long-term loan rates, significantly impacting mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs [4] - Despite the strong performance of the 10-year bond auction, yields on 30 and 40-year bonds have not significantly declined, reflecting market caution ahead of the 30-year bond auction [5] - The recent short-term survey indicated a significant decline in confidence within the automotive sector, which may influence the Bank of Japan's decisions regarding interest rates [4]

Core Viewpoint - From July, the issuance scale of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds will be reduced by 1 trillion yen for each auction [1] Group 1 - The reduction in bond issuance is a significant policy change that may impact the Japanese bond market [1] - This decision reflects the government's strategy to manage debt levels and interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - From July, the issuance scale of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds will be reduced by 100 billion yen for each auction [1] Group 1 - The reduction in bond issuance is a significant policy change that may impact the Japanese bond market [1] - This decision reflects the government's strategy to manage debt levels and interest rates [1] - Investors may need to adjust their strategies in response to the decreased supply of long-term bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over excessive government spending have led to weak demand in long-term bond auctions across multiple countries, particularly in Japan and the U.S. [1][3][10] Group 1: Japan's Long-Term Bond Market - Japan's 30-year bond auction on June 5 saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.92, the lowest in 2023, compared to an average of 3.39 over the past year [1] - The Japanese government is increasing the supply of ultra-long bonds to fill pension gaps, leading to oversupply in the market [4] - Domestic institutions, such as life insurance companies, are reducing their holdings of long bonds due to pressure from IFRS 9 and duration mismatch [4] - The Bank of Japan's shift in monetary policy, including expectations of interest rate hikes and a reduction in bond purchases, is weakening market liquidity [5] - Japan's public debt exceeds twice its economic size, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [3][5] Group 2: Global Bond Market Implications - Weak demand for Japanese bonds may trigger a series of reactions, including a steeper yield curve and increased financing costs for long-term investments [6] - The upcoming U.S. 30-year bond auction on June 12 could further impact market confidence, especially if demand remains low [2][7] - The bid-to-cover ratio for U.S. bonds has also declined, indicating reduced interest from buyers [7][8] - High foreign exchange hedging costs are making U.S. bonds less attractive to non-U.S. investors, further complicating the demand landscape [7][8] Group 3: Recommendations and Future Outlook - Suggestions for addressing the long-term bond market challenges include restructuring debt portfolios towards mid-term maturities and introducing more sustainable investment options [11] - Strengthening fiscal anchors and optimizing market infrastructure are also recommended to stabilize the bond market [11] - The overall supply-demand imbalance in the bond market is expected to persist, with significant implications for global liquidity and interest rates [10][11]