每经AI快讯，9月19日，30年期日本国债收益率跌3个基点至3.160%。 ...

Group 1 - BlueBay Asset Management has established a long position in the Japanese yen, betting on a leadership change in Japan and a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, which could strengthen the yen further [1] - The company shorted the US dollar when the USD/JPY exchange rate approached 150, believing that action from the Bank of Japan in October is likely [1] - Investors view the newly announced candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, as more supportive of interest rate hikes compared to his potential rival, Sanae Takaichi, who is seen as favoring loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - BlueBay expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to fluctuate towards 140 in the short term, with a fair value closer to 135 in the medium term; the yen has depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency among the G10 [1] - The company's views contrast with hedge funds, which have increased short positions in the yen for four consecutive weeks, while strategists from Bank of America and HSBC also predict further depreciation of the yen [4] - BlueBay has increased its yen positions in the past month, driven by indications from Bank of Japan officials that policy normalization is on track, barring political risks [4] Group 3 - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year is currently estimated at around 60%, according to overnight index swaps (OIS) pricing [4] - The political and fiscal uncertainties in Japan have pushed up long-term government bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield recently reaching a historical high of 3.285% [4] - If Koizumi wins the LDP leadership election and the Bank of Japan implements a rate hike, BlueBay may consider shifting to a long position in long-term Japanese government bonds [5]

Core Viewpoint - BlueBay Asset Management has established a long position in the Japanese yen, betting on a political transition in Japan and a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, which could strengthen the yen [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - BlueBay's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Dowding, has taken a position in USD/JPY just below 150, anticipating a high likelihood of action in October [1]. - The firm expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to drop to around 140 in the short term, with a reasonable mid-term rate close to 135 [2]. Group 2: Political Context - Japanese Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has announced his candidacy for the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), with investors believing he is more supportive of interest rate hikes compared to his rival, Sanae Takaichi [1]. - The LDP, Japan's largest ruling party, will hold its leadership election on October 4, following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after a poor showing in the July elections [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Despite political turmoil, there is speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again this year, with traders increasing bets on further tightening of monetary policy [2]. - Current overnight index swap trading indicates a 60% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of the year [2]. Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The uncertainty in Japan's political and fiscal landscape has led to a rise in ultra-long bond yields, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a historical high of 3.285% earlier this month [2]. - BlueBay currently holds a long position in 30-year Japanese government bonds and may consider shifting to a long position in long-term bonds if Koizumi wins the LDP leadership and the Bank of Japan raises rates [2].

欧美国债连续两日遭抛售，陡峭化交易流行 周三，30年期美国国债收益率自7月以来首次突破5%。30年期日本国债收益率创下历史新高3.286%，今 年以来因高通胀、低实际利率和政治不确定性已累计上涨100个基点。20年期日债收益率也达到1999年 以来最高水平，至2.695%，年内累计上升80个基点。 戈尔特曼表示，全球长期债券收益率近期的攀升，似乎有三个重叠的驱动因素：财政担忧、货币政策和 供需动态等期限溢价效应。 今年以来，全球债市始终"坎坷"。本周二，全球性的债券抛售潮，尤其是对长债的抛售重启再次席卷美 英德法日等各大发达经济体，这一抛售延续到了周三。30年期美债收益率重返5%，日债期限溢价创历 史新高，欧洲债券收益率也创数十年来最高点。 分析师表示，全球长期借贷成本再次面临压力，在一定程度上是由于投资者对许多主要经济体的财政和 货币政策路径均感到忧虑。 30年期英国国债收益率周二达到1998年以来的最高水平升至5.75%，周三继续攀升,未来几个月英国将公 布备受期待的预算案。 30年期法国国债收益率也突破了2008年的水平。连今年稍早始终受益于避险情绪的德国国债也加入了暴 跌行列，30年期德国国债收益率创 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has turned downward from a 17-year high, with strong demand observed in the latest auction, indicating a potential easing of investor concerns regarding a sell-off in long-term Japanese bonds [1][4][8] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.60%, after reaching 1.625% on Monday, which is close to the highest level since 2008 [1][4] - The auction results showed a significant increase in the bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year bonds, rising from 3.06 to 3.92, indicating robust demand compared to the average over the past 12 months [1][4] Group 2 - The successful issuance of the bonds has alleviated global investor anxiety about a potential sell-off in long-term Japanese bonds, which had been under pressure due to concerns over the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and government spending [4][8] - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor reiterated the established monetary policy path to raise the benchmark interest rate when conditions allow, without indicating when this might occur [5] - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming auction of 30-year bonds, which could impact secondary market demand for bonds [6][7] Group 3 - Political uncertainty remains a concern, as the ruling party is set to release a report on its recent electoral losses, which could affect the stability of Prime Minister Kishida [6][7] - The market is speculating on potential changes in leadership within the ruling party, which could influence long-term bond yields [7][8] - The demand for long-term Japanese bonds appears to be driven by expectations of a potential reduction in the issuance of ultra-long government bonds following discussions with primary dealers [7][8]

Core Insights - The strategy of overseas investors heavily buying Japanese long-term government bonds is facing significant setbacks as the 30-year Japanese bond yield surged to over 3.2%, a historical high [1] - The Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates since January, and persistent inflation is impacting the outlook for long-term bonds, with the Bloomberg long-term Japanese government bond dollar-hedged index down over 7% this year [1] - International investors had previously invested a record 9.3 trillion yen in Japanese bonds in the first seven months of the year, but are now facing substantial losses [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Japanese bond market's volatility is affecting global markets, especially after the Bank of Japan's decision to abandon its yield curve control policy, which had previously anchored global borrowing costs [1] - Concerns over ongoing inflation and expanding fiscal deficits have led to synchronized volatility in major bond markets, amplifying global market panic [1] Group 2: Investment Challenges - The investment opportunity identified by Insight Investment's Brendan Murphy in the 30-year Japanese bonds has turned out to be a "value trap," where cheap assets continue to decline in value [2] - Overseas investor purchases of Japanese long-term bonds dropped to 479.5 billion yen in July, the lowest level since January [2] Group 3: Central Bank Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that interest rate hikes could resume if domestic demand remains stable, but traders expect the earliest rate increase to be in early 2026, keeping the main policy rate at 0.75%, significantly below the 3.1% annual inflation rate [3] - Demand for two-year Japanese government bonds reached its weakest level in 16 years, indicating investor caution regarding potential rate hikes later this year [3] Group 4: Structural Challenges - The Japanese bond market faces multiple structural challenges, including the impact of an aging population, which has led insurance companies to require fewer long-term bonds to match their liabilities [4] - Net purchases of ultra-long Japanese bonds by trust banks have decreased by approximately 34% compared to the five-year average, and insurance companies are expected to become net sellers of ultra-long bonds for the first time in history [4] Group 5: Potential Opportunities - Despite the setbacks, some investors remain optimistic as Japan has begun to reduce long-term bond issuance, which may help balance supply and demand [5] - Reports indicate that the Japanese Ministry of Finance is consulting with dealers about potentially reducing ultra-long bond issuance again, and new bottom-fishing funds are emerging, planning to purchase unhedged long-term Japanese bonds next month [6] - Murphy maintains his strategy, anticipating that if inflation concerns ease, the 30-year yield could drop to around 2.75%, leading to total returns exceeding 10% for investors entering at current levels [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant volatility, with rising yields and declining demand, leading to concerns about the sustainability of investments in long-term Japanese government bonds [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After a significant sell-off of Japanese government bonds at the end of last year, investors like Brendan Murphy from Insight Investment saw an opportunity in 30-year bonds, which offered attractive yields near historical highs [2]. - The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to maintain its monetary policy without raising interest rates has contributed to the ongoing pressure on long-term bonds, with yields reaching over 3.2%, erasing previous gains for investors [2][3]. - The global bond market is also affected by Japan's bond market fluctuations, as rising yields in Japan have led to synchronized volatility across global fixed-income markets [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Despite the challenges, some investors remain optimistic about Japanese bonds, with Insight Investment's Murphy still holding his positions, believing in the potential for future gains if inflation concerns ease [2][7]. - However, other investment firms, such as PGIM, view the current situation as a "value trap," where bonds appear cheap but may continue to decline in value [3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Factors - Foreign investment in Japanese long-term bonds has significantly decreased, with net purchases dropping to 479.5 billion yen in July, the lowest level since January [4]. - The aging population in Japan is leading to a structural decline in demand for long-term bonds, as pension funds and insurance companies are becoming hesitant to invest [5][6]. - The BOJ's gradual reduction in bond purchases is further weakening market support, contributing to the downward pressure on bond prices [3][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Some analysts suggest that the BOJ may need to raise interest rates to improve the performance of long-term bonds, with expectations for a potential rate hike not occurring until early 2026 [5]. - There are signs of potential recovery, as the Japanese government has started to reduce long-term bond issuance, which may help alleviate supply-demand imbalances [7]. - Certain investors are beginning to enter the market, betting on a bottoming out of Japanese long-term bonds, with expectations of significant returns if yields decrease [7].

Group 1 - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds reached a historical high of 3.215% amid concerns over a potentially more dovish Federal Reserve following President Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook [1] - Japan's debt burden, approximately 250% of GDP, complicates the government's goal of managing its finances as the Finance Ministry plans to request over 32 trillion yen (approximately 217.2 billion USD) for debt servicing costs in the next fiscal year's budget, marking a record amount [1] - The sensitivity of the Japanese market to changes in global interest rates is heightened, as Japan is the world's largest creditor with some of the lowest sovereign yields [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2023, Japan holds 2 trillion USD in U.S. assets, with rising U.S. bond yields contributing to this increase, indicating a synchronization of Japanese bond yields with U.S. yields [2] - Trump's attacks on Cook have intensified his efforts to influence monetary policy, undermining confidence in U.S. sovereign debt as a safe investment, which is particularly concerning for the Japanese bond market experiencing rising yields [2] - The ruling coalition's recent defeat in the Senate elections has empowered opposition parties advocating for consumption tax cuts, raising concerns about potential delays in discussions regarding supplementary budgets [2]

Core Points - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds has increased by 1 basis point to 3.095% [1] Group 1 - The rise in yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term Japanese government debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield has decreased by 1 basis point to 3.12% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1]