黑色产业链日报 2025/08/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

在进入到2025年之后，很多专家都认为，我国物价快速上涨的时代即将到来。主要原因是，央行的货币超发严重。截止2025年6月底，广义货币M2飙升到 330.29万亿元。M2的规模是GDP得2倍。但令人感到奇怪的是，通胀不但没有来，现在还进入到通缩的周期。比如，像汽车、房子、奢侈品等商品的价格还 在调整周期之内。事实上，在通缩的周期内，钱是越来越值钱了。 而导致国内经济进入到通缩周期的原因，主要有两个：一个是，虽然国内货币超发严重，但是大量超发的货币并没有进入到商品市场、资本市场，而是在金 融体系内空转。主要原因是，人们投资和消费的信用不足。这就导致商品市场的价格不涨反跌。 另一个是，由于实体经济不景气，居民收入增长放缓或下降，导致消费需求出现快速萎缩。这就造成了企业生产出来的商品库存积压严重。而为了能及时回 笼资金，企业只能通过降价来促销。所以，现在各类商品的价格都在持续走低。 面对当前国内经济处于通缩周期，有业内人士提醒大家：从9月起，或要做好"资产贬值"的准备。以下这4件事情尽量别做：①不要追高股市；②谨慎购买理 财产品；③不要投资买房；④不要盲目创业。让我们一起来了解一下： 第一件事，不要追高股市 最近一 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of tariffs on Asian exports and the overall economic growth in the region, particularly focusing on the effects of U.S.-China trade relations and the performance of various markets including India, Japan, and China [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Asian Export Performance**: Asian exports have shown limited improvement after a brief rebound, with exports to the U.S. stagnating and non-tech sector exports fluctuating within a narrow range, indicating significant impacts from global economic slowdown [1][2][3]. 2. **Tariff Impact**: Tariffs have had a notable negative effect on both Asian and U.S. economic growth, with U.S. GDP growth expected to slow from 2% in Q2 to 1% in Q4 of 2025, while global growth is projected to decline from 3.9% to 3.5% [2][9]. 3. **Capital Expenditure Stagnation**: U.S. capital expenditures have stagnated, with capital goods imports showing zero growth, which poses challenges for Asian economies, particularly in tech and non-tech sectors [5][9]. 4. **India-U.S. Trade Tensions**: Trade tensions between India and the U.S. may lead to a reduction in Indian exports to the U.S., but the overall impact is deemed manageable, with Indian corporate revenue expected to improve by Q3 2025 due to government policy actions [6][7][25]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: Recent market volatility suggests a significant directional change, with high valuations and risks of downturns in both U.S. and Chinese markets. Financial stocks have outperformed hardware companies, while AI-driven software firms have shown better performance [8][9]. 6. **China's Market Performance**: The onshore Chinese market has outperformed offshore markets, driven by rising long-term bond yields and positive liquidity indicators, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching its highest level since 2015 [12][13][14]. 7. **Japan's Market Outlook**: Japan's stock market has rebounded strongly but may be overbought, with potential short-term correction risks. Long-term factors supporting the market include U.S. tax reforms and political changes in Japan [18][19]. 8. **Sector Performance in Japan**: Attractive sectors in Japan include construction software, information communication, real estate, and utilities, while the automotive sector faces uncertainties due to trade policies [19][20]. Additional Important Insights 1. **CPI and Deflationary Pressures**: Deflationary pressures from China are spreading across the region, contributing to downward pressure on CPI, which has remained below central bank targets [21][22]. 2. **Investment Strategy in A-shares**: Increasing positions in A-shares can effectively reduce portfolio risk due to their low correlation with global markets, especially during periods of significant volatility [16]. 3. **Monitoring Indicators for China**: Investors should focus on financing balance ratios, government bond yields, and upcoming policy events to assess the sustainability of the Chinese market [15]. 4. **Political Landscape in Japan**: The political situation in Japan remains uncertain, with potential leadership changes that could impact economic policies and market dynamics [27][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and market dynamics in Asia.

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Ueda, has raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, marking a significant shift from its previous ultra-loose monetary policy [1] - Ueda's cautious stance is evident as he becomes one of the more dovish members of the nine-member policy committee, expressing concerns about the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1][3] - The recent outlook report from the Bank of Japan indicates that tariffs could complicate future interest rate decisions, reflecting a cautious approach towards the economic outlook [1][3] Group 2 - The July meeting minutes reveal that persistent food inflation has led some committee members to warn of potential second-round price effects, which could justify further rate hikes [2] - Despite hawkish signals from some committee members, Ueda emphasizes that domestic demand and wage-driven inflation remain below the central bank's target, supporting a slower pace of rate increases [2] - The internal dynamics of the committee show a shift in influence, with former dovish members losing power and hawkish members warning about the risks of rising inflation due to food price increases [2][3] Group 3 - Ueda and his deputy, Shinichi Uchida, maintain a dovish stance, focusing on the downside risks facing Japan's fragile economy and the potential negative impacts of U.S. tariffs [3] - Concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports and capital spending are prevalent, with economists predicting a decline in corporate profits that could affect capital expenditures [3] - The trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. has not fully clarified the timeline for tariff reductions, leading to uncertainty about the future economic landscape [3] Group 4 - The governor proposes policies and interest rate proposals to the committee, which have historically been approved by majority or unanimous votes [4] - Since the current committee framework was established in 1998, the governor's proposals have never been rejected, indicating strong leadership [4] Group 5 - There is a perception that the current committee lacks strong dissenters, making it unlikely for hawkish members to oppose the governor's wishes regarding interest rate hikes [5] - Ueda's leadership within the committee appears to be solid, suggesting that his cautious approach may prevail despite the presence of hawkish sentiments [5]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise this week, reaching new highs in both index points and average daily trading volume, with trading amounts exceeding 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days [2] - The Hang Seng Index also increased, but A-shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks overall [2] - The net inflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 35.876 billion yuan, indicating strong interest in Hong Kong assets [2] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a decline this week, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds weakening, leading to negative returns for pure bond funds [2] - The funding environment remained balanced but slightly loose, which typically supports bond performance [2] - Basic economic data showed weak credit data and continued deflation, which could provide some support for bonds despite the market's limited pricing of fundamental data [2] Commodity Market - Gold prices saw a significant pullback this week, influenced by cautious Federal Reserve attitudes and unexpected PPI data [3] - The overall commodity index rose by 0.52%, with agricultural and non-ferrous metals performing well, while precious metals declined [35] Stock Market Insights - The strong performance of the stock market is attributed to good recent profit effects, a strong overall atmosphere, and reduced external uncertainties due to the 90-day delay in US-China tariffs [6] - The market is believed to have substantial structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors with high earnings certainty and potential for positive surprises [7] Industry Performance - In the industry performance, the communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors showed significant gains, with increases of 7.66%, 7.02%, and 6.48% respectively [23] - Conversely, the banking, steel, and textile sectors experienced declines [23] Economic Data - July economic data showed a 5.7% increase in industrial value added, with 35 out of 41 major industries reporting growth [31] - Social financing and M2 growth rates remained high, indicating continued liquidity in the economy [31] International Market - US stocks continued to rise, with the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increasing, which could present opportunities in US Treasury bonds [10] - The overall trend in global major economies is towards fiscal expansion, which may support fundamentals and risk appetite [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the economic landscape in China, focusing on liquidity, anti-involution measures, and consumer promotion as key drivers of market sentiment improvement [6][19]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Policy Measures for Consumption**: The government has introduced a total of 1.8 trillion RMB (1,300 billion RMB for childbirth subsidies and 500 billion RMB for personal consumption and service sector loans) to stimulate consumer spending [6][9]. 2. **Social Security Policy Tightening**: Short-term execution of social security policies will be more flexible, with deeper reforms to be gradually implemented [6][18]. 3. **Weak Demand and Deflation**: The exploration to break deflation remains challenging, with upstream price increases expected to occur in the coming months, potentially squeezing downstream profits [6][19]. 4. **Trade Risks**: While trade risks are not fully resolved, China can leverage its dominance in key raw materials to manage these risks [6][20]. 5. **Loan Subsidy Policies**: The government has implemented interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and loans for service sector businesses, with a subsidy rate of 1% [9][10]. 6. **Impact on Consumer Loans**: The total potential amount benefiting from the subsidy policy for personal consumption loans is estimated at 12 trillion RMB, which could increase the growth rate of consumer loans by 1-2 percentage points [9][10]. 7. **Profit Margin Outlook**: Upstream prices have shown a rebound, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) improving from -0.4% in June to -0.2% in July, while downstream prices remain weak [10][13]. 8. **Government Enforcement of Social Insurance**: New judicial interpretations mandate that small and micro enterprises must enroll employees in social insurance, potentially increasing their annual burden by 1.3-1.6 trillion RMB [17][18]. 9. **Economic Growth Outlook**: Short-term economic data is expected to remain resilient, but a slowdown in growth is anticipated in the second half of the year due to various factors [19][21]. Additional Important Content - **Rebalancing Progress**: The report emphasizes that while the direction of policies is correct, the pace of implementation is slow [6][8]. - **Inflation and Credit Data**: Inflation and credit data are expected to be supported by low base effects in the coming months [19][21]. - **Potential Disruptions**: The report identifies two main risks that could disrupt the positive narrative regarding re-inflation and the market: a significant decline in economic growth or corporate profits, and unexpected escalation in US-China trade tensions [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic situation and policy measures in China.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent economic data shows a mixed picture, with CPI rising while new RMB loans have turned negative, indicating a complex economic situation [2][4][8] - In July, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking a shift from a decline to an increase, which suggests initial success in combating deflation [4][6][7] - The negative new RMB loans of -500 billion yuan in July represent the first negative value since July 2005, highlighting a significant decline in overall loan activity [9][12][13] Group 2 - The decline in new loans is attributed to banks actively reducing bill financing, with a decrease of 4.5 trillion yuan in July compared to the previous year [15][16] - The reduction in bill financing is linked to the end of the half-year performance assessment for banks, leading to a decrease in loan volume as banks redeemed maturing bills [17][18] - The anti-involution movement has caused many enterprises to halt unrestrained capacity expansion, contributing to the significant drop in new loans [19][20][21] Group 3 - The article suggests that the reduction in new loans is understandable as the anti-involution aims to end deflation, albeit with short-term economic pain [23][24][25] - The article posits that to completely overcome deflation, there needs to be a substantial increase in government investment and leverage [29][30][31] - The article emphasizes the importance of repatriating foreign trade earnings that have been invested overseas, which is a significant factor in the ongoing deflationary environment [35][36][42] Group 4 - The article discusses the need for the government to increase its leverage to stimulate economic growth, as the current leverage ratio is lower than that of many developed countries [31][32] - It highlights that the return of foreign trade earnings is more critical than anti-involution or increasing fiscal stimulus to resolve deflation [42][43] - The article notes that the government has recognized this issue and is supporting capital markets to attract funds back into the domestic economy [43][45]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its **"anti-involution" policy** targeting industries such as **electric vehicles** and **solar energy**. Core Points and Arguments - The **"anti-involution" policy** addresses excessive competition in advanced industries, which has emerged due to weak demand following the **2021 real estate market downturn** and previous supply-driven incentive mechanisms [1][2]. - Current measures differ from past capacity reduction efforts by focusing on **downstream price pressures** in advanced industries, addressing **private sector overcapacity**, and considering the macroeconomic context of **high debt** and **aging population** [1][3]. - Strategies to improve profit margins include **supply-side cleanup** and gradual demand stimulation, with specific measures such as: - **Trade credit plan** of **138 billion RMB** [3]. - **National fertility subsidies** totaling **100 billion RMB** [4]. - **Tuition fee reductions** amounting to **30 billion RMB** [5]. - Despite these stimulus measures, the **actual GDP growth rate** may fall below **4.5%** in the second half of **2025**, with a **nominal GDP growth rate** around **3.5%** and a **GDP deflator index** expected to remain low at **-0.8% to -0.9%** [1][5]. Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Key indicators for assessing the success of reforms include: - Comprehensive inflation recovery as reflected in the **Producer Price Index (PPI)** and **Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)**. - Stability in **corporate profit margins** and **bank net interest margins**. - An increase in the share of consumption in GDP and a decrease in household savings rates [1][6]. - Potential risk signals include: - Top-down capacity cuts without demand stimulation, which could harm downstream industries. - External factors like **U.S. tariffs** negatively impacting Chinese exports [2][6]. - Structural reforms needed for sustainable development include: - Adjusting local government incentive mechanisms to focus on improving living standards. - Reforming the tax system to encourage direct taxes and promote a consumption-oriented economy [2][6]. - The period starting from **September 2024** is crucial for China's efforts to combat deflation, indicating a deeper understanding of the challenges at the microeconomic level [7].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **automobile industry**, and **equity markets** in China, particularly focusing on the implications of the **anti-involution policy** and its effects on various sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Forecast**: The Chinese economy is expected to slow down to a growth rate of **4.5%** in the second half of the year, with deflationary pressures likely to persist into the first half of next year, and the GDP deflator projected at around **-0.9%** [2][6][29]. 2. **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to improve corporate return on equity (ROE) by addressing overcapacity and price pressures, although its short-term effects are limited. The long-term outlook is more positive as it encourages investment in core technological innovations [2][3][7][23][24]. 3. **Foreign Investment Trends**: There is a continued inflow of foreign capital into the Chinese market, although actively managed public funds are still experiencing net outflows. The interest in Chinese equities is expected to rise as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle and the dollar weakens [2][19]. 4. **Stock Market Dynamics**: The disparity in performance between Hong Kong and A-shares is notable, with Hong Kong benefiting from high-quality sectors and active IPO markets. A-shares are recommended for increased allocation due to their attractive valuations and responsiveness to policy changes [2][14][16][15]. 5. **Automobile Industry Challenges**: The anti-involution policy is expected to suppress price-cutting strategies among car manufacturers, leading to a focus on supply chain optimization and core technology investment. However, short-term profitability may be limited [3][24][25]. 6. **Supply-Side Reforms**: The automobile sector is undergoing supply-side reforms aimed at eliminating inefficient capacity and optimizing production configurations, with a focus on electric and smart vehicles [25][26]. 7. **Consumer Behavior and Financial Assets**: There is a significant shift in household financial asset allocation towards equities, driven by low interest rates and a strong stock market performance, which supports a bullish market sentiment [6][42]. 8. **Inflation and Deflation Concerns**: The current economic narrative indicates a need to address structural issues causing deflation, with a focus on market-oriented reforms to optimize resource allocation and improve consumer demand [34][35]. 9. **Impact of New Social Security Regulations**: The new social security regulations, effective September 1, will impose significant financial burdens on small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, potentially affecting employment and the business environment in the short term [36]. 10. **Export Outlook**: China's export growth is expected to decline sharply, with projections of around **0%** growth in the second half of the year, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and global trade dynamics [37][38]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-Term Market Sentiment**: Despite short-term challenges, there is a growing recognition of the resilience and innovative capabilities of Chinese enterprises among international investors [10][11][12]. 2. **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory landscape is evolving to address issues of fair competition and prevent excessive price wars, particularly in the e-commerce and delivery sectors [43][44][46]. 3. **Consumer and Employment Effects**: The competitive landscape, while leading to internal market pressures, has also stimulated consumer demand and increased employment opportunities in the service sector, particularly for gig workers [46]. 4. **Future Economic Risks**: Key risks include the effectiveness of the anti-involution policy, the impact of new social security regulations, and uncertainties in U.S.-China trade relations, which could affect overall economic stability [29][38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its implications for economic conditions and industry performance, indicating a potential shift towards a mild inflation period driven by policy stimuli and seasonal factors [2][3]. CPI Trends and Economic Phases - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, suggesting a possible mild inflation phase ahead due to consumption subsidies and social security policies [2]. - Historical data shows that a rising CPI typically indicates economic recovery and increased demand, while a declining CPI reflects insufficient domestic demand and deflationary pressures [3][4]. Industry Performance During CPI Phases - During periods of rising CPI, essential consumer goods tend to perform well due to their price transmission capabilities, while resource sectors benefit from inflation expectations [4]. - Conversely, in declining CPI phases, defensive sectors show resilience, supported by policy easing and infrastructure investments [4]. Historical CPI Trends - The article outlines various CPI phases from 2015 to 2024, highlighting periods of inflation and deflation, with specific CPI ranges and characteristics for each phase [5]. Industry Performance Analysis - In the CPI rising period from March 2016 to February 2017, the CSI 300 index rose by 19.99%, while the CSI 2000 index increased by 31.56%, indicating a preference for small-cap stocks [7]. - From February 2019 to January 2020, both indices showed balanced performance, with the CSI 300 rising by 25.06% and the CSI 2000 by 28.04% [9]. - In the CPI rising period from January 2021 to February 2022, the CSI 300 fell by 12.08%, while the CSI 2000 rose by 18.85%, again favoring small-cap stocks [11]. Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The article suggests that during rising CPI periods, small-cap stocks may continue to outperform large-cap indices, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [12]. - The concept of a "slow bull" market is introduced, emphasizing that market dynamics may favor small-cap and sector-specific performances rather than broad market rallies [12].