证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 宏观经济周报 增长换引擎，财富换赛道 考虑 2035 远景目标的合意水平为人均 GDP 达到 2.9 万美元，这要求"十五 五"期间中国经济运行逻辑从单一追求实际 GDP 增速，转向"生产力提升+ 温和通胀+汇率升值"的增长新范式，各类资产的定价逻辑与相对吸引力也 将被系统性改变。在这一新格局下，权益市场正站上舞台中央，迎来系统性 重估。其优势主要源于三个方面的支撑：盈利基础、估值环境和相对收益。 从盈利基础看，新增长范式更加关注通胀水平和名义 GDP 的增长，这实际上 是对企业盈利能力和资本回报率的重视。过去，在单一强调生产法 GDP 的模 式下，经济增长与企业利润、居民收入之间出现脱节，甚至出现"增长不增 收"的困境。如今，通过"反内卷"和提升名义 GDP 的政策权重，经济增长 将更直接地转化为企业营收与利润的提升。生产力进步带来真实价值创造， 而温和通胀环境则有助于企业维护合理定价、改善利润率，这些都将为上市 公司盈利提供扎实支撑。 在估值层面，人民币汇率的升值预期将成为重要推动力。建设"强大的货币" 需要提升人民币在国际储备和交易中的比重，而这离不开一个有深度 ...

在进入到2025年之后，很多学者都在喊通胀就要来了，手里有大量现金的人将难以入眠。主要理由是，我国央行货币超发严重。截至2025年11月，中国M2 （广义货币供应量）余额为335.13万亿元，M2规模是GDP的2倍。但实际上，现在国内经济仍处于通缩的周期。资料显示，2025年10月份，全国居民消费价 格同比上涨0.2%。而事实上，10月份是受到国庆长假消费需求回升的影响，物价才勉强由负转正。 当前国内经济之所以仍处于通缩周期的原因主要有两个：一方面，大量的超发货币都在金融体系内空转，并没有流向社会，这就导致商品市场的价格一直呈 现"相对稳定"的状态。另一方面，现在很多居民收入增长放缓，这就导致消费市场需求萎缩，企业大量库存出现滞销。为了能够去库存，及时回笼资金，不 少企业只能选择降价促销的方式。 而面对当前国内通缩的经济形势，有业内人士提出：2025年，现在手握大量现金的人要偷笑了。让我们一起来分析一下： 第一，手里的钱越来越值钱了 现在手里有大量现金的人突然发现，自己手里的钱越来越值钱了。之前猪肉的价格还在25元/斤，现在已经跌到了17-18元/斤。之前购买一款新能源汽车的价 格是22万，现在已经跌到了18 ...

11月21日周五，美元兑瑞郎上演单边下行行情，昨日收于0.8251，今日盘中最高仅触及0.8263便转头下 探，最低触及0.8048的阶段性低位，当前报0.8049，单日跌幅已达2.45%。这波跌势并非孤立事件—— 自10月0.9010的高点算起，该汇率已累计回撤超10.6%，创下2023年以来单月最大跌幅。市场正被两股 力量拉扯：一边是中东局势升级催生的瑞郎避险买盘，一边是美联储坚守高利率的美元支撑逻辑，而即 将披露的瑞士三季度GDP细节与通胀数据，被视作打破僵局的"钥匙"。 技术形态上，美元兑瑞郎已跌破前期震荡平台下沿，形成"断头铡刀"走势，当前0.8049处于下行趋势的 加速段，短期多空争夺聚焦0.8000-0.8050关键区间。阻力端需重点关注0.8150-0.8180，这里既是5日均 线所在位，也是11月中旬回调的密集成交区，反弹至此将面临套牢盘抛压；支撑端则以0.8000整数关口 为核心，下方0.7980是2022年12月以来的低点连线支撑，一旦失守，可能触发程序化交易抛售，下看 0.7950。 指标发出明确的"超卖反弹"信号：汇率与20日均线偏离度达3.2%，远超常态区间；MACD在零轴下出 现 ...

Summary of the 2026 China Equity Strategy Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese stock market** and its outlook for 2026, following a strong performance in 2025 where major indices like the MSCI China Index and Hang Seng Index rose over **30%** year-to-date [1][10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Growth**: - 2026 is expected to be a year of stabilization after the high returns of 2025, with limited upside potential for indices and moderate earnings growth projected at **6%** [2][15]. - The MSCI China Index is forecasted to trade at a forward P/E ratio of **12-13x**, with a target of **90 points** for December 2026, indicating a **3%** upside from the current levels [2][15]. 2. **Valuation and Earnings Quality**: - The report highlights that the valuation re-rating has already occurred, with a **30%** increase in the past year, suggesting limited room for further upward revaluation [12][15]. - Concerns about the sustainability of corporate earnings are raised, as recent earnings reports show a slight deterioration in the number of companies exceeding expectations [11][15]. 3. **Macroeconomic Factors**: - The Chinese economy is expected to face ongoing deflationary pressures, with real GDP growth projected to slow to **4.8%** in 2026 [12][15]. - Global macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. economy, could impact China's growth trajectory [14][15]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, favoring high-quality internet and technology leaders while underweighting sectors like real estate, consumer staples, and energy that are negatively impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][30]. - Key trading ideas include focusing on stocks benefiting from the "anti-involution" policies and those included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3][31]. 5. **Liquidity and Capital Flows**: - The report anticipates continued net inflows into both A-shares and offshore markets, supported by policy measures aimed at stimulating consumption and managing real estate inventories [2][28]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Considerations**: The report notes that a stable geopolitical environment, particularly in U.S.-China relations, could positively influence market sentiment [22][25]. - **Sector Preferences**: There is a strong emphasis on investing in companies with robust fundamentals and growth prospects, particularly in technology and innovation sectors aligned with China's strategic planning [19][30]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report outlines a wide range of potential outcomes for the Chinese stock market, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a **30%** upside and pessimistic scenarios indicating a potential **34%** decline [25][26]. Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese stock market in 2026 is characterized by cautious optimism, with a focus on sustainable growth and selective investment strategies. The anticipated stabilization in market performance, combined with macroeconomic challenges, necessitates a strategic approach to capital allocation in the coming year [1][15][19].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a favorable investment outlook for risk assets in 2026, particularly recommending a bullish stance on stock assets, especially in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index expected to reach 7,800 points by the end of 2026 [1][7]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that by 2027, the Chinese economy will begin to recover, driven by food planning recommendations, improved US-China trade relations, and forecasts for the US and global economies. Key drivers for this recovery include technological innovation and consumer spending [1][4]. - The US economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026-2027, with AI investments boosting short-term economic performance and long-term productivity. The annualized profit growth for the US stock market is projected to reach 15% from 2025 to 2027 [1][7]. - The Chinese real GDP growth rate is forecasted to be 7.8% in 2026, with nominal GDP growth at 4.1%. By 2027, real GDP growth is expected to slightly slow to 4.6%, while nominal GDP growth rebounds to 4.8% [1][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - 2026 is viewed as the final year of China's battle against deflation, with significant progress expected by 2027. The US economy is projected to show resilience, particularly due to AI-related investments [3][4]. - The Asian economy's growth drivers are expected to shift from technology sectors to non-technology sectors, especially in domestic demand and consumption [14][15]. Stock Market Insights - The US stock market is favored, with expectations of broad market gains rather than reliance on a few large companies. Japan's stock market is also viewed positively due to favorable fiscal policies, while European stocks are expected to benefit from a strong US economy [7][8]. - Emerging markets are relatively underweighted, but India, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia are highlighted as favorable investment opportunities [2][7]. Policy Recommendations - To address challenges in the Chinese real estate market, potential policy measures include subsidizing mortgage rates, learning from Hong Kong's experience in removing purchase restrictions, and enhancing social feedback mechanisms [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the need for aggressive macroeconomic support policies to achieve significant valuation recovery in the Chinese stock market, which is expected to stabilize around a price-to-earnings ratio of 12-13 times [9][10].

周三（11月19日）亚洲时段，美元/日元守于155.30上方震荡，前一交易日一度创下9个月新高(155.73)， 延续了10月初以来的加速上涨趋势。美元兑日元汇率维持强势震荡上行格局，日线连续收在155关口上 方，加强了多头主导地位。 在亚洲时段交易中，日元维持弱势震荡，始终靠近自2月以来的低点。投资者对于日本央行未来的政策 路径依旧缺乏明确指引，而首相高市早苗所坚持的财政扩张和低利率偏好，更强化了日元的结构性压 力。 日本执政党内部的预算小组于本周提出编制规模超过25万亿日元的追加财政预算，以支撑首相的刺激计 划。市场随即担忧，这将带来更高的国债供给，使40年期国债收益率冲上历史高位。 一位日本长期利率研究机构的分析师指出："预算规模越大，国债供给压力越强，央行越难在短期推动 加息。" 美元/日元技术分析 尽管涨势加速，但从14日相对强弱指数(RSI)来看，该货币对在技术上尚未进入超买区域。这意味着若 就业数据表现强劲，进一步降低美联储12月降息的隐含概率，美元对日元汇率可能继续上攻156.00及以 上关口。 反之，若数据不及预期，则可能导致看跌反转。在此情境下，若美元兑日元跌破上升趋势线，可能引发 更深层 ...

通缩之下暗藏玄机！这五类资产或将悄悄升值，内行人揭秘财富密码 很多人觉得通缩下房价会跌，但2025年的楼市政策明确指向"核心优质资产"。2025年9月，央行与银保监会联合放宽信贷政策，首套房贷款利 率下限降至LPR-20BP，一线城市首套房首付比例最低可至20%，二线及以下城市更是低至15% 。随后住建部下属《中国房地产报》11月8日发 文，建议北京、上海、深圳等城市"择机全域放开限购"，配套还有公积金全国互通、装修支出抵扣个税等政策。 政策落地后市场已经有了反应：深圳11月新房认购量环比增长36.4%，核心地段项目折扣从85折收紧至95折；上海外环外新房日均成交量较8 月上涨40%。通缩下的房产升值逻辑很明确：远郊老破小仍有压力，但核心城市核心地段的刚需房、现房，因为供应稀缺+政策支持，不仅抗 跌性强，还可能在市场企稳后率先升值，毕竟"住有所居"的刚需不会受通缩影响。 最近大家是不是发现身边的物价悄悄降了？菜市场的猪肉、蔬菜价格稳中有跌，家电、日用品打折促销的活动也变多了，就连银行存款利息也 一降再降。不少人念叨着"钱好像更耐花了"，但手里的闲钱理财收益越来越少，又忍不住犯愁：通缩环境下，钱该往哪儿放才能不 ...

当然，物价指数在10月所出现的积极变化，在一定程度上具有季节性的因素，另外，只是凭借一个月的 数字，对形成趋势性判断还是不够的。尽管一些数据显现出了向好的迹象，但绝对值并不高，表明需求 与生产的修复仍然处于初期，部分数据随着内外部形势的变化，还有可能出现反复。但物价状况在改善 已经是不争的事实，而且这些数据也为今年最后两个月财政与货币政策的双双发力提供了一定的空间。 因此，有理由认为在随后的一段时间内，市场信心增强、实体经济改善是必然的。 自去年"9.24"以来，大盘出现了震荡上行的态势，现在4000点徘徊。对这波行情，不少人认为是资金驱 动的结果，与资本市场流动性好转有关。如果仅仅因为流入的资金多而股市上涨，那么这种上涨是缺乏 基础的，即便再赋予一些题材，也不可能走得太远，因为股市上行的基础是上市公司业绩。上市公司业 绩不好，股市越上涨风险就越大。而当投资者看到10月物价指数时，也许还能够想象到企业经营在慢慢 好转，走出通缩阴影后公司的盈利也将逐步回升，这无疑会给股市以正面的推动，大盘从资金牛向资金 与业绩叠加牛的过渡，也许就不是太遥远的事情。 先看CPI，9月CPI同比下降0.3%。古语云"谷贱伤农"，物 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability of "stocks and bonds sharing the same origin" is increasing, and they are likely to be in sync with the nominal growth rate [22][34]. - The focus of the "same origin" lies in price elasticity and the impact of price changes on the stock and bond markets, with policy and market attention centered on demand - led non - food prices [38][47]. - The "anti - involution" policy is an important arrangement in the future, with clear long - term and short - term goals and implementation paths [60][61]. Summary by Directory "Stock - Bond Disconnection" - After "9.24" in 2024, both stocks and bonds were bullish under the stimulus of loose monetary policy. In 2025, there was a slight "seesaw" pattern between stocks and bonds, with stocks strong and bonds weak. The median return of a certain scale of interest - rate bond public funds was around 0.2%, and the stock index rose nearly 800 points while the interest rate only increased by 20 points [7][8]. - The reason for the "stock - bond disconnection" is that they have different driving factors. In 2025, the bond market's main line was the revision and adjustment of expectations, including policy and economic expectations [9][11][12]. Increasing Probability of "Stock - Bond Homology" - A stock bull market requires both PE and EPS. Currently, it seems to be in a period where EPS needs to take over. When the stock market focuses on EPS, the probability of stock - bond homology increases [22]. - In the past year or so, the main factor determining the rise and fall of long - term interest rates has been the term premium. Currently, the term premium is at a reasonable level, and the long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors such as growth or prices [32]. - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamentals, the probability of stock - bond homology increases, and they are homologous to the nominal growth rate [34]. Focus of "Homology" - In terms of the 2035 goals, the real growth has limited elasticity, while prices still have elasticity. Industry profit changes are closely related to prices, which are crucial for the stock market, and whether to get out of deflation is crucial for the bond market [38]. - Policy and the market pay more attention to demand - led prices, especially non - food prices or core CPI. When food and non - food prices move in the same direction, the situation is clear; when they move in opposite directions, in - depth structural analysis is needed [47]. - Under neutral assumptions, there is a chance to get out of deflation, but the risk lies in whether the month - on - month can reach the neutral level of recent years. The trend is determined, and it is unlikely to return to the 2024 situation [50][51]. - The "anti - involution" policy is very important. In the short term, the implementation path is still under observation, while in the long term, the goals and implementation paths are clear. International experiences from the US and Japan can be used for reference, and in the short term, administrative production control may be used to improve industry profit margins [60][61][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of "stocks and bonds being homologous" is increasing, and they are likely to be homologous to the nominal growth rate, which is of greater macro - significance to the country than the real growth rate [34] - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamental aspects, the probability of stocks and bonds being homologous increases [34] - The overall long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors: growth or prices [32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs "Stock - Bond Disconnection" - After "9.24" in 2024, both stocks and bonds were bullish under the stimulus of loose monetary policy. In 2025, there was a "seesaw" form where stocks were strong and bonds were weak, with the median return of a certain scale of interest - rate bond public funds around 0.2%. The stock index rose nearly 800 points while the interest rate only increased by 20 points [7][8] - The reason for "stock - bond disconnection" is that they have their own driving main lines. In 2025, the driving factors of stocks and bonds were mostly different, but there was a common linkage effect during the anti - involution market from June to August [9][11] - The main line of the bond market in 2025 was the revision and adjustment of expectations, including the revision of policy expectations and economic expectations [12][17] "Increasing Probability of Stock - Bond Homology" - The bull market of stocks requires both PE and EPS. Currently, it seems to enter a period where EPS needs to take over. PE - driven stock markets tend to weaken the stock - bond seesaw effect, while EPS - driven ones strengthen it. When the stock market focuses on EPS, the probability of stock - bond homology increases [22] - The long - term interest rate's rise and fall in the past year was mainly determined by the term premium. Currently, the term premium is at a reasonable level, and the overall long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors such as growth or prices [32] - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamental aspects, the probability of stocks and bonds being homologous increases [34] "What is the Focus of Homology?" - In terms of the 2035 goals, the real growth has limited elasticity, while prices still have elasticity. Industry profit changes are closely related to prices, which is crucial for the stock market. Whether to get out of deflation is crucial for the bond market [38] - Since 2016, there has been significant differentiation in the internal price trends. Non - food (or core) prices are more demand - driven, while food prices are more supply - driven. Monetary policy and market interest rates pay more attention to demand - dominated prices, especially non - food prices [41][43][47] - Under neutral assumptions, there is a possibility of getting out of deflation. The risk lies in whether the month - on - month data can reach the neutral level in recent years. The trend is determined, and it is unlikely to return to the 2024 pattern [50][51] - "Anti - involution" is an important policy arrangement. In the short - term, the implementation path is under observation, with the goal of improving the profit margins of key industries. In the long - term, the path is clear, aiming to establish a unified national market through mergers, reorganizations, and reforms [60][61] - In the short - term, administrative production control may be used to improve industry profit margins. Attention should be paid to whether there will be production control policies for anti - involution key industries, which account for over 30% of China's PPI [69][70]