乳品需求边际改善
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伊利股份(600887):液态乳需求承压,期待边际改善
Dongguan Securities· 2025-10-31 07:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in Q3 performance, with total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, and a net profit of 10.426 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.07% [4]. - Liquid milk demand remains under pressure, while milk powder and ice cream segments show growth [4]. - The company expects marginal improvement in dairy demand moving forward [4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 54.939 billion yuan from liquid milk, 24.261 billion yuan from milk powder and dairy products, and 9.428 billion yuan from ice cream, with respective year-on-year changes of -4.49%, +13.74%, and +12.99% [4]. - In Q3 2025, liquid milk revenue decreased by 8.83% to 18.814 billion yuan, while milk powder and ice cream revenues increased by 12.64% to 7.683 billion yuan and 17.42% to 1.200 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The company's net profit margin slightly decreased to 11.15%, down 0.30 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.76% [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 1.74 yuan and 1.85 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16 times and 15 times [4][5].