Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically focusing on the dairy sector [1]. Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a phase of market size adjustment, with the market growing from 388 billion CNY in 2012 to 686 billion CNY in 2022, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9%. However, a decline of 3.1% is expected in 2024, bringing the market size to 659 billion CNY [5][13]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a "two super, many strong" structure, with leading companies like Yili and Mengniu holding approximately 45% market share, which creates brand barriers and enhances competitive advantages [5][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply-demand structure in the dairy market, as supply is expected to decrease marginally while demand shows signs of weak recovery [5][36]. Summary by Sections Market Size and Consumption - The dairy market in China is undergoing a phase of adjustment, with liquid milk being the primary consumption category, accounting for 44% of the market in 2024 [5][16]. - Per capita dairy consumption in China is significantly below global averages, with a projected consumption of 41.5 kg per year in 2024, which is about one-third of the global average [5][19]. Competitive Landscape - The dairy industry is structured into three tiers: national, regional, and local companies, with Yili and Mengniu as the leading national players [5][31]. - The competitive advantages of leading dairy companies are expected to improve due to enhanced brand influence and consumer recognition [5][33]. Supply and Demand Structure - The supply of dairy products is expected to decrease marginally, with a reported production of 26.85 million tons in the first eleven months of 2025, a decline of 1.2% year-on-year [5][36]. - The report highlights the need to focus on the supply-demand structure, as policy catalysts may improve dairy demand [5][27]. Low-Temperature Milk and Cheese Market - The low-temperature milk segment is growing faster than the overall industry, with a market size of 41.8 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.63% [5][44]. - The cheese market is also expanding, with production increasing from 127,000 tons in 2019 to 203,000 tons in 2023, although the self-sufficiency rate remains low at 12.3% [5][50]. Online and Retail Channels - The sales structure for dairy products is predominantly offline, with online and instant retail channels contributing to growth, showing year-on-year increases of 4.3% and 2.8% respectively [5][69]. - The report indicates that the dairy industry is increasingly leveraging online channels to enhance market competitiveness and reach consumers more effectively [5][71]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage sector, with a focus on companies like Yili (600887), New Dairy (002946), and Miaokelando (600882) as key investment targets [5][73].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) as the initial coverage [2]. Core Insights - Yili Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese dairy industry, demonstrating strong operational resilience during industry adjustments. The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 2.2%, 3.7%, and 3.6% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 27.9%, 14.8%, and 8.7% for the same years [5][9]. - The dairy industry in China is entering a mature phase, with a retail scale projected to reach approximately 560 billion yuan in 2024. Yili's product matrix includes liquid milk as a base, with milk powder and dairy products, as well as ice cream, driving growth [5][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Yili Co., Ltd. are 118.37 billion yuan in 2025, 122.73 billion yuan in 2026, and 127.14 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 10.82 billion yuan, 12.42 billion yuan, and 13.50 billion yuan [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 34.4% in 2025 to 35.2% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7]. Business Segments - Liquid milk revenue is projected to stabilize at 750.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a modest growth rate of 0.1% [5]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenues of 326.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [5]. - The ice cream business is anticipated to recover with double-digit growth, reaching revenues of 96.8 billion yuan in 2025, a 11% increase [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili Co., Ltd. is transitioning from a "long-life milk leader" to a "platform dairy enterprise," actively expanding its product categories to mitigate risks associated with liquid milk demand [5][6]. - The company has established a robust national distribution network with over 5 million terminal points, enhancing its competitive edge across various product lines [6]. Growth Catalysts - The anticipated rebound in demand for infant formula due to increased birth rates in 2024 is expected to benefit Yili as a market leader in this segment [9]. - The adult nutrition market is expanding, driven by an aging population and increasing health awareness, providing further growth opportunities for Yili [9]. - The company's strategy in deep processing and high-margin B-end markets is expected to unlock additional revenue streams [9].

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Dairy has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 30.40% and a recent uptick of 7.23% over the last five trading days, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in the dairy sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Hope Dairy reported a revenue of 8.434 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 623 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 31.48% [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of December 19, New Hope Dairy's stock price was 18.55 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 57.23 million yuan and a market capitalization of 15.966 billion yuan. The stock has seen a net inflow of 355,900 yuan from major funds [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) once this year, with a net buy of 67.0816 million yuan on April 10, contributing to a total buy of 139 million yuan, which accounted for 27.48% of total trading volume [1]. Shareholder Information - As of December 10, 2025, New Hope Dairy had 17,100 shareholders, an increase of 5.32% from the previous period. The average number of shares held per shareholder decreased by 5.05% to 49,749 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable funds such as 中欧价值智选混合A and 香港中央结算有限公司, with significant increases in their holdings [3]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, New Hope Dairy has distributed a total of 676 million yuan in dividends, with 448 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Industry Classification - New Hope Dairy is classified under the food and beverage sector, specifically in the dairy products category, and is associated with concepts such as community group buying and new retail [2].

截至9月30日，燕塘乳业股东户数1.70万，较上期减少5.79%；人均流通股9196股，较上期增加6.15%。 2025年1月-9月，燕塘乳业实现营业收入11.79亿元，同比减少9.55%；归母净利润5331.34万元，同比减 少34.32%。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入26.26万元，大单买入202.11万元，占比7.69%，卖出175.84万元，占比 6.69%。 燕塘乳业今年以来股价涨14.65%，近5个交易日涨5.94%，近20日涨2.65%，近60日涨5.56%。 今年以来燕塘乳业已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为4月14日，当日龙虎榜净买入4878.82万 元；买入总计8970.65万元 ，占总成交额比16.61%；卖出总计4091.83万元 ，占总成交额比7.58%。 资料显示，广东燕塘乳业股份有限公司位于广东省广州市天河区燕园路85号广垦天河1号B塔21-22层， 成立日期2002年12月30日，上市日期2014年12月5日，公司主营业务涉及乳制品、含乳饮料的研发、生 产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：乳酸菌乳饮料类42.34%，液体乳类36.71%，花式奶19.86%，其他 1.09%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yantang Dairy's stock price has shown a positive trend, with a year-to-date increase of 13.43%, despite a recent decline over the past 20 days [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 18, Yantang Dairy's stock price rose by 2.02% to 17.65 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 2.777 billion CNY [1] - The stock has experienced a 4.01% increase over the last five trading days and a 2.50% increase over the last 60 days [2] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with a net buy of 48.7882 million CNY on April 14 [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yantang Dairy reported a revenue of 1.179 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 53.3134 million CNY, down 34.32% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 401 million CNY, with 78.675 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yantang Dairy was 17,000, a decrease of 5.79% from the previous period, with an average of 9,196 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 6.15% [2] - Notably, the fifth largest circulating shareholder is the Nuoan Multi-Strategy Mixed A fund, which holds 930,700 shares as a new entrant [3]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Dairy has shown a mixed performance in stock trading, with a year-to-date increase of 21.12% but a slight decline in recent trading days [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Hope Dairy achieved a revenue of 8.434 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.49% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 623 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 31.48% [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of November 28, New Hope Dairy's stock price was 17.23 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 14.829 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has experienced a net outflow of 305,100 yuan in principal funds, with large orders accounting for 6.19% of total purchases and 6.90% of total sales [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with a net purchase of 67.0816 million yuan on April 10 [1]. Shareholder Information - As of November 20, the number of shareholders for New Hope Dairy was 15,800, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 2.14% to 53,883 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, New Hope Dairy has distributed a total of 676 million yuan in dividends, with 448 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, major shareholders include China Europe Value Select Mixed Fund, which increased its holdings by 2.0809 million shares [3]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited also increased its holdings by 947,100 shares, while Huatai-PB Vision Select Mixed Fund entered the top ten shareholders [3].

资金流向方面，主力资金净流入118.75万元，特大单买入166.32万元，占比4.53%，卖出0.00元，占比 0.00%；大单买入189.79万元，占比5.17%，卖出237.36万元，占比6.46%。 燕塘乳业今年以来股价涨17.29%，近5个交易日涨2.01%，近20日涨6.35%，近60日涨5.19%。 今年以来燕塘乳业已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为4月14日，当日龙虎榜净买入4878.82万 元；买入总计8970.65万元 ，占总成交额比16.61%；卖出总计4091.83万元 ，占总成交额比7.58%。 11月27日，燕塘乳业盘中上涨2.13%，截至13:05，报18.25元/股，成交3671.58万元，换手率1.31%，总 市值28.72亿元。 燕塘乳业所属申万行业为：食品饮料-饮料乳品-乳品。所属概念板块包括：微盘股、小盘、多胎概念、 国产乳业、乡村振兴等。 截至9月30日，燕塘乳业股东户数1.70万，较上期减少5.79%；人均流通股9196股，较上期增加6.15%。 2025年1月-9月，燕塘乳业实现营业收入11.79亿元，同比减少9.55%；归母净利润5331.34万元，同比减 ...

11月24日，新乳业盘中下跌2.02%，截至10:29，报16.95元/股，成交2767.80万元，换手率0.19%，总市 值145.88亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出82.33万元，大单买入123.72万元，占比4.47%，卖出206.04万元，占比 7.44%。 新乳业今年以来股价涨19.16%，近5个交易日跌3.80%，近20日涨0.77%，近60日跌5.52%。 今年以来新乳业已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为4月10日，当日龙虎榜净买入6708.16万 元；买入总计1.39亿元 ，占总成交额比27.48%；卖出总计7234.20万元 ，占总成交额比14.26%。 资料显示，新希望乳业股份有限公司位于四川省成都市锦江区金石路366号新希望中鼎国际2栋8楼2号， 成立日期2006年7月5日，上市日期2019年1月25日，公司主营业务涉及从事乳制品及含乳饮料的研发、 生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：液体乳91.70%，其他(补充)7.47%，奶粉0.83%。 新乳业所属申万行业为：食品饮料-饮料乳品-乳品。所属概念板块包括：国产乳业、社区团购、新零 售、多胎概念、植物蛋白等。 截至11月20日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that Yili Group aims to establish leadership in various segments by 2025, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of double digits in revenue from 2021 to 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average [1] Revenue Growth - The overall revenue growth of the company is influenced by consumer sentiment, with a projected CAGR of 4.55% from 2020 to 2024, compared to the industry's decline of -0.18% [1] Market Position - In the liquid milk segment, Yili maintains the top market share, continuing to lead the industry [1] - The company has achieved the highest market share in the milk powder and dairy products sector, with growth rates surpassing competitors, particularly in the cheese market [1] - Yili's ice cream business also retains the leading market share, reinforcing its leadership across all business lines [1] Future Strategy - Over the next five years, Yili plans to focus on value reconfiguration along the supply chain and explore diversification, aligning with consumer demand and channel changes [1] - The company aims for its growth rate to exceed that of the industry and national GDP growth [1] International Expansion - Yili's overseas core markets are concentrated in Indonesia, Thailand, and New Zealand, with a focus on ice cream and infant formula products [1] - The company anticipates a turning point in its ambient liquid milk segment by 2026, expecting to lead the industry in achieving growth [1] Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Group [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][15]. Core Insights - The company aims to establish leadership in various segments by 2025, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in revenue from 2021 to 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average of -0.18% during the same period [4][5]. - The company holds the leading market share in liquid milk, milk powder, and ice cream, with continuous growth in these segments, particularly in cheese products [4][5]. - The company plans to enhance its value chain through diversification and international expansion, focusing on markets in Indonesia, Thailand, and New Zealand, while also developing functional nutrition and deep processing products [5][6]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 120.31 billion, CNY 126.17 billion, and CNY 132.41 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.91%, 4.87%, and 4.94% [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach CNY 11.25 billion, CNY 12.20 billion, and CNY 13.25 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 33.13%, 8.43%, and 8.57% [9][11]. - The company aims to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2025 to 2027, ensuring a stable dividend yield of approximately 4.92% by 2026 [9][11].