以下文章来源于MCR嘉世咨询 ，作者行业与企业研究部 产业链中，中游的乳品加工具备最强的议价能力和最高的价值，而上游奶源供应则面临利润挤压。目前，中国约10.5%的原料奶供应依赖进口大包粉补 充。在消费端，城乡人均消费量差距显著，农村居民的消费潜力尚待开发，为市场下沉提供了广阔空间。销售渠道仍以线下为主，占比达83%，但线上 渠道正逐步发力。 MCR嘉世咨询 . 专注于行业研究、企业研究、消费者研究 行业与企业研究部 梳理 & 撰写 & 编辑 中国乳制品行业正面临结构性调整，2024年销售额整体下滑3.1%，与快消品市场的普遍复苏形成对比。市场目前呈现伊利、蒙牛双寡头格局，两者合计 市场份额超过50%。从消费结构看，液体乳和奶粉是两大核心品类，分别占据44.0%和32.5%的消费份额。尽管市场规模预计将持续增长，但行业正努力 应对系统性的原奶产能过剩问题。 展望未来，行业机遇与挑战并存。餐饮、烘焙等B端市场对奶酪、黄油的需求增长，以及冷链物流的数智化升级为低温奶市场扩张提供了新机遇。然 而，行业也面临着饲料成本上涨、深加工技术瓶颈、乳制品"主粮"属性被削弱以及严重的产能过剩等多重挑战。 01. 乳制品行业：从 ...

2025年，伊利股份重磅加码功能性营养、乳深加工两大战略性布局，抢占产业价值高地。上半年，伊利 股份与同仁堂（600085）达成全面战略合作，将药食同源理念与乳业结合，首创药食同源养生乳品新赛 道，不仅为消费者量身打造契合国民体质的营养健康新供给，更重塑行业品类认知。在乳深加工领域， 随着位于伊利现代智慧健康谷的奶酪智造标杆基地三期项目的投产，其将填补国内规模化生产原制奶酪 的空白，解决原制奶酪、D90粉和乳铁蛋白粉依赖进口等被"卡脖子"的问题，实现进口原料的国产化。 渠道与服务创新是伊利股份面向未来的又一重要探索。伊利股份探索"医疗+营养"新模式，将健康服务 延伸至社区、药店等新场景，精准触达养生新圈层；同时，伊利股份正从"卖产品"迈向"提供健康生活 解决方案"，以全生命周期、全场景的商业模式升级驱动增长。 荷兰合作银行报告指出，过去一年全球乳业收入温和增长，乳企纷纷调整战略。伊利股份作为全球乳业 五强、亚洲乳业第一，向新领域的横向跨界，向产业链的纵向延伸，将为引领奶业高质量发展注入更强 动力。 8月28日，荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）发布2025年全球乳业20强榜单。榜单上，伊利股份（600887）稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Dairy has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial metrics, with a notable increase in net profit despite a slight decline in stock price over the past month [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New Hope Dairy achieved a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 397 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 33.76% [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, New Hope Dairy has distributed a total of 676 million yuan in dividends, with 448 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 26, New Hope Dairy's stock price was 17.31 yuan per share, with a year-to-date increase of 21.69% [1]. - The stock has experienced a 12.44% decline over the past 20 trading days and a 4.31% decline over the past 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) once this year, with a net buy of 67.08 million yuan on April 10 [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 19, the number of shareholders for New Hope Dairy was 17,500, an increase of 4.03% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder was 48,726, which decreased by 3.88% [2]. - Notable changes in institutional holdings include a decrease in shares held by 中欧价值智选混合A and new entries from 香港中央结算有限公司 and 信澳品质回报6个月持有混合 [3]. Industry Classification - New Hope Dairy operates within the food and beverage sector, specifically in the dairy products category, and is associated with concepts such as plant protein and community group buying [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the dairy products industry Core Insights - The dairy products industry in China has experienced rapid growth due to economic development and a large population, evolving through six distinct phases from its inception to the present recovery period post-pandemic [12][15] - The overall fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market is recovering, but the dairy products segment is projected to decline by 3.1% in sales in 2024 [15][18] - The market size of the dairy products sector is expected to reach approximately 5,216.70 billion yuan by 2022, with projections of 5,966.60 billion yuan by 2026 [26][20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The dairy products industry connects agriculture and food processing, producing various products such as liquid milk, milk powder, cheese, butter, and ice cream [9][11] Historical Development - The industry has evolved from a period of scarcity (1949-1978) to a recovery phase (2020-present), with significant milestones including the introduction of UHT technology and the impact of the melamine scandal [12][13] Current Industry Status - The FMCG market is stabilizing, but the dairy segment is facing a decline, with a projected sales drop of 3.1% in 2024 [15][16] Market Size - The retail scale of the dairy products market has shown fluctuations, with a slight decline in production expected due to overcapacity and reduced demand [20][22] Policy Environment - Recent policies focus on quality improvement and consumption stimulation, aiming to address overcapacity and promote high-value-added products [27][29] Industry Chain - The dairy industry features a long supply chain, including raw milk supply, processing, and retail, with strong interdependencies among various segments [31] Upstream Supply - China relies on imported milk powder to supplement its domestic raw milk production, which is insufficient to meet demand [34][36] Midstream Processing - The processing segment is the most profitable, with significant value addition through technology and innovation [39][41] Downstream Retail - Traditional retail channels dominate, but online sales are growing, reflecting changing consumer preferences [42][44] Consumption Patterns - Per capita dairy consumption in China is low compared to developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential in the market [47][51] Competitive Landscape - The market is primarily dominated by two major players, Yili and Mengniu, which together hold over 50% of the market share [60][62] Case Study: Yili Group - Yili Group is a leading player with a diverse product range and significant market presence, achieving substantial revenue from liquid milk and milk powder [64][66] Future Challenges - The industry faces challenges such as supply chain risks, changing consumer perceptions, and technological limitations in deep processing [70][72] Future Opportunities - There are growth opportunities in the B2B dairy market, driven by increasing demand for cheese and butter in various sectors [76][78]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Dairy's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 18.80% but a recent decline over various trading periods [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New Hope Dairy reported a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, which is a 33.76% increase [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 22, New Hope Dairy's stock was trading at 16.90 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 14.545 billion yuan. The stock saw a net outflow of 12.97 million yuan in principal funds [1]. - The company has appeared on the trading leaderboard once this year, with a net buy of 67.08 million yuan on April 10 [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 10, the number of shareholders for New Hope Dairy was 16,800, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous period, with an average of 50,691 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 3.84% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 676 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 448 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, major shareholders included China Europe Value Select Mixed Fund, which reduced its holdings by 1.5897 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which became a new shareholder with 449,830 shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotou Securities indicates that Yili Co., Ltd. experienced a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, while showing significant growth in the second quarter, driven by strong performance in new product launches, particularly in milk powder and cold drinks [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Yili achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39% [1] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.326 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.65% [1] - Revenue breakdown for H1 2025 includes liquid milk at 36.13 billion yuan, milk powder and dairy products at 16.58 billion yuan, cold drinks at 8.23 billion yuan, and other products at 390 million yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, +12.4%, and -5.1% [1] Product Strategy - The company plans to focus on expanding high-margin businesses such as milk powder and cold drinks [1] - Yili is innovating its product matrix by launching high-end organic infant formula, special medical purpose formula milk, functional nutrition products, and new cold drink products targeting younger consumers [1] Marketing and Distribution - Yili is enhancing its digital ecosystem marketing and multi-channel layout, aiming to improve penetration rates in e-commerce and new retail channels [1] - The company is focused on increasing channel efficiency through these initiatives [1] Investment Rating - Based on the average valuation of comparable companies for 2025, Yili is given a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 34.71 yuan, corresponding to a 2025 PE ratio of 19.56x [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry's stock price has shown volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 21.97% but a recent decline in the last five trading days by 5.29% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New Dairy achieved a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [2] Stock Market Activity - As of September 18, New Dairy's stock price was 17.35 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 14.933 billion yuan. The stock experienced a net outflow of 98,400 yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with a net buy of 67.0816 million yuan on April 10 [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 10, the number of shareholders for New Dairy was 16,800, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 3.84% to 50,691 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include various funds, with notable changes in holdings among major institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry's stock price has shown fluctuations with a year-to-date increase of 26.12%, while recent trading indicates a slight decline over the past five days [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New Dairy achieved a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 33.76% [2] Stock Market Activity - As of September 17, New Dairy's stock price was 17.94 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 15.441 billion yuan. The stock experienced a trading volume of 50.6096 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.34% [1] - The stock has been on the龙虎榜 once this year, with the last appearance on April 10, where it recorded a net purchase of 67.0816 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 10, the number of shareholders for New Dairy was 16,800, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous period, with an average of 50,691 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 3.84% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include various funds, with notable changes in holdings among them [3]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Dairy's stock price has shown volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 23.23% but a recent decline of 7.35% over the past five trading days [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, New Hope Dairy achieved a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 397 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 33.76% [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 10, 2025, the number of shareholders for New Hope Dairy was 16,800, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 3.84% to 50,691 shares [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, New Hope Dairy has distributed a total of 676 million yuan in dividends, with 448 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the third-largest circulating shareholder was China Europe Value Select Mixed Fund A, holding 5.9028 million shares, a decrease of 1.5897 million shares from the previous period [3] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited entered as a new shareholder, holding 4.4983 million shares [3] - Hua'an Anxin Consumer Mixed Fund A increased its holdings by 477,600 shares, ranking as the fifth-largest circulating shareholder [3]

Group 1 - New Dairy Industry's stock price fell by 2.24% to 17.91 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 15.415 billion CNY, and has experienced a cumulative decline of 5.34% over the past four days [1] - The company, New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd., was established on July 5, 2006, and went public on January 25, 2019, focusing on the research, production, and sales of dairy products and dairy-containing beverages [1] - The main revenue composition of New Dairy Industry includes liquid milk at 91.70%, other products at 7.47%, and milk powder at 0.83% [1] Group 2 - Huabao Fund has a significant holding in New Dairy Industry, with its Huabao Consumption Upgrade Mixed Fund (007308) holding 74,500 shares, representing 3.1% of the fund's net value, making it the ninth largest holding [2] - The fund has experienced a floating loss of approximately 30,500 CNY today and a total floating loss of 75,200 CNY during the four-day decline [2] - The Huabao Consumption Upgrade Mixed Fund was established on June 19, 2019, with a current scale of 45.1802 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 12.58% [2]