11月24日，新乳业盘中下跌2.02%，截至10:29，报16.95元/股，成交2767.80万元，换手率0.19%，总市 值145.88亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出82.33万元，大单买入123.72万元，占比4.47%，卖出206.04万元，占比 7.44%。 新乳业今年以来股价涨19.16%，近5个交易日跌3.80%，近20日涨0.77%，近60日跌5.52%。 今年以来新乳业已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为4月10日，当日龙虎榜净买入6708.16万 元；买入总计1.39亿元 ，占总成交额比27.48%；卖出总计7234.20万元 ，占总成交额比14.26%。 资料显示，新希望乳业股份有限公司位于四川省成都市锦江区金石路366号新希望中鼎国际2栋8楼2号， 成立日期2006年7月5日，上市日期2019年1月25日，公司主营业务涉及从事乳制品及含乳饮料的研发、 生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：液体乳91.70%，其他(补充)7.47%，奶粉0.83%。 新乳业所属申万行业为：食品饮料-饮料乳品-乳品。所属概念板块包括：国产乳业、社区团购、新零 售、多胎概念、植物蛋白等。 截至11月20日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that Yili Group aims to establish leadership in various segments by 2025, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of double digits in revenue from 2021 to 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average [1] Revenue Growth - The overall revenue growth of the company is influenced by consumer sentiment, with a projected CAGR of 4.55% from 2020 to 2024, compared to the industry's decline of -0.18% [1] Market Position - In the liquid milk segment, Yili maintains the top market share, continuing to lead the industry [1] - The company has achieved the highest market share in the milk powder and dairy products sector, with growth rates surpassing competitors, particularly in the cheese market [1] - Yili's ice cream business also retains the leading market share, reinforcing its leadership across all business lines [1] Future Strategy - Over the next five years, Yili plans to focus on value reconfiguration along the supply chain and explore diversification, aligning with consumer demand and channel changes [1] - The company aims for its growth rate to exceed that of the industry and national GDP growth [1] International Expansion - Yili's overseas core markets are concentrated in Indonesia, Thailand, and New Zealand, with a focus on ice cream and infant formula products [1] - The company anticipates a turning point in its ambient liquid milk segment by 2026, expecting to lead the industry in achieving growth [1] Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Group [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][15]. Core Insights - The company aims to establish leadership in various segments by 2025, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in revenue from 2021 to 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average of -0.18% during the same period [4][5]. - The company holds the leading market share in liquid milk, milk powder, and ice cream, with continuous growth in these segments, particularly in cheese products [4][5]. - The company plans to enhance its value chain through diversification and international expansion, focusing on markets in Indonesia, Thailand, and New Zealand, while also developing functional nutrition and deep processing products [5][6]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 120.31 billion, CNY 126.17 billion, and CNY 132.41 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.91%, 4.87%, and 4.94% [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach CNY 11.25 billion, CNY 12.20 billion, and CNY 13.25 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 33.13%, 8.43%, and 8.57% [9][11]. - The company aims to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2025 to 2027, ensuring a stable dividend yield of approximately 4.92% by 2026 [9][11].

分红方面，新乳业A股上市后累计派现6.76亿元。近三年，累计派现4.48亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，新乳业十大流通股东中，中欧价值智选混合A（166019）位居第 三大流通股东，持股798.37万股，相比上期增加208.09万股。香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流通股 东，持股544.54万股，相比上期增加94.71万股。华泰柏瑞远见智选混合A（012748）位居第五大流通股 东，持股384.81万股，为新进股东。信澳品质回报6个月持有混合（012389）位居第六大流通股东，持 股325.58万股，相比上期减少63.97万股。华夏回报混合A（002001）位居第九大流通股东，持股300.75 万股，为新进股东。华安安信消费混合A（519002）退出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，新希望乳业股份有限公司位于四川省成都市锦江区金石路366号新希望中鼎国际2栋8楼2号， 成立日期2006年7月5日，上市日期2019年1月25日，公司主营业务涉及从事乳制品及含乳饮料的研发、 生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：液体乳91.70%，其他(补充)7.47%，奶粉0.83%。 新乳业所属申万 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 24.29% and a recent decline in the last 20 days [1][2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Dairy achieved a revenue of 8.434 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 623 million yuan, up 31.48% year-on-year [2][3] Stock Market Activity - As of November 13, New Dairy's stock price was 17.68 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 15.217 billion yuan. The stock experienced a net outflow of 1.091 million yuan in principal funds [1] - The stock has been on the "龙虎榜" (a stock trading list) once this year, with the last appearance on April 10, where it recorded a net purchase of 67.0816 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of November 10, the number of shareholders for New Dairy was 16,100, a decrease of 1.06% from the previous period, with an average of 52,753 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.07% [2][3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable funds such as 中欧价值智选混合A and 香港中央结算有限公司, with varying changes in their holdings [3] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, New Dairy has distributed a total of 676 million yuan in dividends, with 448 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Industry Classification - New Dairy is classified under the food and beverage sector, specifically in the dairy products category, and is associated with concepts such as domestic dairy industry and new retail [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.71%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.07% to 10.426 billion yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 18.73% to 10.103 billion yuan [2][4] - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a total revenue of 28.631 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.226 billion yuan, down 3.35% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters, revenue from liquid milk was 54.939 billion yuan (down 4.49% year-on-year), while revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 24.261 billion yuan (up 13.74% year-on-year). Revenue from cold drinks reached 9.428 billion yuan (up 13%), and other products saw significant growth, with revenue of 0.976 billion yuan (up 65.12%) [5] - In Q3 2025, liquid milk revenue decreased by 8.83% year-on-year, while milk powder and dairy products increased by 12.65%, and cold drinks grew by 17.35% [5] Profitability Analysis - The company's net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 0.69 percentage points to 11.51%, while the gross profit margin increased by 0.45 percentage points to 35.48%. The expense ratio decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 21.97% [6] - In Q3 2025, the net profit margin decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 11.27%, and the gross profit margin decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 33.92% [6] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The company is exploring new business opportunities despite pressure on liquid milk demand, with strong performance in new products and channels. Capital expenditures are expected to stabilize, with 2024 capital expenditure projected at approximately 3.978 billion yuan, down from 6.956 billion yuan in 2023 [7] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 3.036 billion yuan, representing 29.12% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [7]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 19.02% and recent declines in the short term [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 6, New Dairy's stock price decreased by 2.03%, trading at 16.93 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 14.571 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, the stock has risen by 19.02%, but has seen a decline of 0.47% over the last five trading days, 0.88% over the last twenty days, and 0.35% over the last sixty days [1] - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on April 10, where it recorded a net purchase of 67.0816 million CNY [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Dairy achieved a revenue of 8.434 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 623 million CNY, up 31.48% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 676 million CNY in dividends, with 448 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of October 31, New Dairy had 16,300 shareholders, a decrease of 1.42% from the previous period, with an average of 52,197 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.44% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable funds, with the third-largest being 中欧价值智选混合A, holding 7.9837 million shares, an increase of 2.0809 million shares from the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates resilience through diversified operations and has announced an interim dividend of 0.48 CNY per share [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 90.56 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.43 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.1% [5]. - The liquid milk segment faced pressure, while the milk powder business continued to grow significantly [5]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 2.1% in 2025, with net profit growth of 32.5% [5]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - Projected revenue for 2024 is 115.78 billion CNY, with a growth rate of -8.24%, followed by 118.26 billion CNY in 2025 with a growth rate of 2.15% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 8.45 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 11.20 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 32.5% [2][6]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 33.88% in 2024 to 34.24% in 2027 [2][6]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 21.74 billion CNY, decreasing to 17.38 billion CNY in 2025 [7]. - Total assets are expected to grow from 153.72 billion CNY in 2024 to 163.37 billion CNY in 2027 [6]. - The company’s total liabilities are projected to decrease slightly from 96.71 billion CNY in 2024 to 95.50 billion CNY in 2027 [6]. Key Financial Ratios - The projected P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 20.26 in 2024 to 13.24 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [2][6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 15.9% in 2024 to 20.1% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [6].

Core Insights - Yili Group reported a total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan for the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.71%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.73% [1] - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a total cash dividend of 3.036 billion yuan, continuing its trend of high shareholder returns with a cumulative dividend payout of 58.566 billion yuan since its listing [1][6] Revenue Breakdown - Liquid milk remains the cornerstone of Yili's business, generating revenue of 54.939 billion yuan, maintaining a stable market share and position [2] - The milk powder segment showed significant growth, with revenue reaching 24.261 billion yuan, a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 13.74%, capturing 18.1% of the infant formula market share [3] - The ice cream segment also performed well, with revenue of 9.428 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [3] Innovation and Product Development - Yili's cheese business focused on innovation, introducing new crispy cheese products and exploring new usage scenarios for cheese spreads, aiming for double-digit growth across milk powder, cheese, and ice cream segments [4] - The company is enhancing brand value through innovative consumer engagement strategies, including collaborations with global IPs and extending health services into new consumer scenarios [5][6] Marketing Strategy - Yili is building a "versatile Yili" brand image through various marketing campaigns that resonate with consumers' emotions and lifestyles, aiming to be a trusted provider of healthy food [6] - The company emphasizes its commitment to shareholder returns, with a target dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% in the coming years [6]

Core Viewpoint - Yili's revenue has slightly increased while net profit has declined, indicating ongoing pressure in its core liquid milk business, despite growth in milk powder and ice cream segments. The industry faces challenges from weak consumption and a declining population dividend, raising questions about the sustainability of Yili's growth logic and whether investors should continue to hold or reassess their positions [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Yili achieved revenue of 905.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, while net profit was 104.26 billion yuan, down 4.07% [3]. - The revenue growth rate has slowed, with Q1 at 1.46%, Q2 rebounding to 5.77%, and Q3 showing a decline of 1.63% [3]. - The company announced a dividend plan of 0.48 yuan per share, totaling approximately 30.36 billion yuan, which represents 29.12% of net profit [4]. Industry Context - The overall dairy industry is under pressure, with over 60% of A-share listed dairy companies facing revenue declines. Yili remains the industry leader with 903.41 billion yuan in revenue and 104.26 billion yuan in net profit [5]. - The third quarter saw a decline in revenue and net profit, with Q3 revenue at 285.64 billion yuan, down 1.63%, and net profit at 32.26 billion yuan, down 3.35% [5]. Cost and Expense Management - Yili has been cautious with sales expenses, which decreased by 5.5% in Q3 to 52.2 billion yuan, while management expenses rose by 10.58% to 11.39 billion yuan [6]. - R&D expenses increased by 15.1% to 2.47 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing investment in product innovation [6]. Cash Flow and Inventory - Operating cash flow decreased by 32.23% to 94 billion yuan, attributed to a decline in pre-received payments from distributors, indicating potential inventory buildup and weakened market confidence [7]. Business Segment Analysis - The liquid milk segment is the main drag on Yili's overall performance, with revenue down 4.5% to 549.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters [8]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment showed strong growth, with revenue of 242.61 billion yuan, up 13.74%, and the ice cream segment also performed well with a 13% increase in revenue [10][11]. Market Outlook - The dairy industry is experiencing an oversupply of raw milk, with a projected surplus of 636,000 tons in 2024, indicating ongoing challenges for the sector [12]. - The long-term outlook is complicated by a declining birth rate, which is expected to shrink the market for infant formula, a key growth area for Yili [14]. Investor Sentiment - Following the earnings report, Yili's stock price reacted negatively, reflecting market skepticism about the company's future performance [12][15]. - Despite past profit growth, the company's market valuation has not increased, indicating a "valuation kill" phenomenon [15]. Future Prospects - Yili expresses confidence in benefiting from a potential industry turnaround as raw milk prices stabilize and consumer demand gradually recovers [16].