当前，中国企业在国际竞争中的实力不断壮大，全球化不仅是规模扩张的必由之路，更是整合优质资 源、应对区域市场风险的关键。日前，伊利股份2025年投资者日活动举办，全面展示了伊利的经营成 果、创新技术及未来发展思路和战略布局。在大会的"新版图"圆桌论坛上，一幅覆盖东南亚、中东、欧 洲、大洋洲和美洲的全球乳业地图徐徐展开。 伊利的国际化业务已形成清晰的三大组织体系：国际业务部以印尼、泰国为区域枢纽，将冰淇淋业务辐 射至东南亚、中东等18个市场，在印尼从行业第八跃升第一梯队；澳优产品出口到中东、美国等30多个 国家，羊奶粉更是有着占据全球份额52%的优势；新西兰业务单元则专注高附加值原料，产品出口40多 个国家，高附加值产品占比从40%提升至60%。 正如潘刚所言，"合作方能聚力"，在积极拓展全球业务布局的过程中，伊利国际化战略从"产品出 海"到"生态落地"全面升维：新西兰基地生产的乳铁蛋白、酪蛋白等高端原料有力支持集团婴幼儿营 养、成人营养等高端品类发展；荷兰基地凭借百年乳业积淀，不仅在羊奶原料领域取得突破，更通过收 购羊奶酪公司完善产业链布局。这种"全球资源+全球市场"的双循环模式，为伊利打开了更大的增长空 间。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) as the initial coverage [2]. Core Insights - Yili Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese dairy industry, demonstrating strong operational resilience during industry adjustments. The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 2.2%, 3.7%, and 3.6% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 27.9%, 14.8%, and 8.7% for the same years [5][9]. - The dairy industry in China is entering a mature phase, with a retail scale projected to reach approximately 560 billion yuan in 2024. Yili's product matrix includes liquid milk as a base, with milk powder and dairy products, as well as ice cream, driving growth [5][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Yili Co., Ltd. are 118.37 billion yuan in 2025, 122.73 billion yuan in 2026, and 127.14 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 10.82 billion yuan, 12.42 billion yuan, and 13.50 billion yuan [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 34.4% in 2025 to 35.2% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7]. Business Segments - Liquid milk revenue is projected to stabilize at 750.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a modest growth rate of 0.1% [5]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenues of 326.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [5]. - The ice cream business is anticipated to recover with double-digit growth, reaching revenues of 96.8 billion yuan in 2025, a 11% increase [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili Co., Ltd. is transitioning from a "long-life milk leader" to a "platform dairy enterprise," actively expanding its product categories to mitigate risks associated with liquid milk demand [5][6]. - The company has established a robust national distribution network with over 5 million terminal points, enhancing its competitive edge across various product lines [6]. Growth Catalysts - The anticipated rebound in demand for infant formula due to increased birth rates in 2024 is expected to benefit Yili as a market leader in this segment [9]. - The adult nutrition market is expanding, driven by an aging population and increasing health awareness, providing further growth opportunities for Yili [9]. - The company's strategy in deep processing and high-margin B-end markets is expected to unlock additional revenue streams [9].

液态奶是大众最熟悉的乳制品品类，但当前陷入传统产品过剩、特色产品供给不足的困境。 市场的集中度也较高，伊利、蒙牛等头部企业凭借渠道和规模优势稳住主导地位，而中小乳企因规模化不足陷入业绩下滑甚至亏损的困境。 同时，液态奶市场的销售增长正在逐渐放缓，常温奶的市场份额虽依旧庞大，但已经不再是乳企唯一的增长引擎，头部乳企正逐步降低液态奶收入占比，转 向奶酪、奶粉、冷饮等更高附加值的业务。 有趣的是，伊利忙着向第二曲线转移，"热火朝天"卖着奶粉、奶酪及冷饮，例如以金领冠品牌的有机婴幼儿奶粉为代表，并涵盖悠滋小羊、佳贝艾特等羊奶 粉产品，同时在酸奶品类中除畅轻外，还包括伊利草原酸奶等特色产品及冷饮业务以巧乐兹为主导品牌等。 而蒙牛则另辟蹊径，不仅凭借妙可蓝多在奶酪赛道站稳脚跟，更让旗下优益C拿下首款乳酸菌"健字号"，将普通饮品升级为具有保健品属性的健康产品，在 垂直领域开辟新方向。 那么，伊利、蒙牛都已经向更加垂直领域去精进，到底谁能率先走出差异化路径来？ 01 第二曲线比重上升，伊利对市场敏锐度很高 其实，常温液态奶一直都是是中国乳业最大的摇钱树，其凭借其长保质期、便于运输的特性，让伊利和蒙牛建立了覆盖全国的渠道网络， ...

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group is actively fulfilling its commitment to implement a significant mid-term dividend, marking its first mid-term dividend since its listing, with a cash dividend of 0.48 yuan per share, totaling 30.36 billion yuan [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yili Group achieved total revenue of 905.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 104.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.07% [1][9]. - The company completed over 76% of its annual revenue target in the first three quarters, indicating a strong likelihood of achieving its planned goals [10]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters reached 35.32%, up 0.51 percentage points from the previous year, marking a four-year high [10]. Dividend Policy - The mid-term dividend payout ratio is approximately 29%, reflecting the company's commitment to high dividend levels and stable operations [2][3]. - Yili Group plans to maintain a cash dividend total of no less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2025-2027, with a minimum cash dividend of 1.22 yuan per share for 2024 [4]. Market Position - Yili Group remains a leader in the industry, with significant market shares in various segments, including liquid dairy products and infant formula [8]. - The company aims to achieve a total revenue of 1,190 billion yuan and a total profit of 126 billion yuan in 2025 [8]. Research and Development - Yili Group has consistently increased its investment in research and development, with R&D expenses exceeding 8 billion yuan for three consecutive years [12]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, R&D expenses reached 6.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.83%, with expectations to exceed 9 billion yuan for the full year [13].

Group 1 - Sohu is transitioning from a traditional internet media platform to a social platform, focusing on "attention flow" where users can share, follow, and consume content, enhancing social interactions through video [1] - The dairy industry in China is shifting from quantity to quality, with a growing demand for precise, professional, and functional nutritional products, leading to a focus on deep processing as a key for industry upgrade [1] Group 2 - In the face of a downward cycle in the liquor industry, companies must innovate by creating competitive "super products" supported by "super channels, super communication, and super experiences" to achieve growth [2] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, but a short-term adjustment is expected due to rapid price increases, with recommendations for asset allocation in gold ranging from 5% to 30% [2] - The core logic for gold's price increase in 2025 remains unchanged, with expectations for further increases in gold allocation by global central banks and investors in 2026, despite current high valuations potentially leading to increased price volatility [2]

Group 1 - The 2025 Sohu Finance Annual Forum was successfully held in Beijing, featuring over twenty authoritative guests from academia, business, and investment sectors discussing key topics such as macro policies, industrial upgrades, corporate globalization, capital market reforms, and international dynamics [1] - Wu Xiaoqiu, a professor and former vice president of Renmin University, highlighted that China's economy has transitioned from a "shortage era" to an "excess stage" within just over forty years, emphasizing the need to expand consumption under current conditions [3] - Liu Jipeng, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, identified three key factors for the sustainable development of A-shares after surpassing 4000 points: major shareholder reductions, low-interest buybacks, and utilizing capital markets for the benefit of investors [5] Group 2 - Teng Tai, an economist, proposed three unconventional measures to achieve the "14th Five-Year Plan" goal of a 6% annual growth rate in retail sales of consumer goods, including issuing a trillion yuan in universal consumption vouchers, reallocating state-owned equity to enhance social security, and creating a wealth effect through capital markets [7] - Yan Xuetong, honorary dean of Tsinghua University's International Relations Institute, stated that the changes in the international situation in 2025 cannot be explained by structural factors but are determined by the actions of major power decision-makers [9] - Sun Liping, a sociologist, noted that China's economy is at a turning point characterized by "overdraft, contraction, and internal competition," requiring comprehensive restoration to return to normal circulation [11] Group 3 - Huang Shaoqing, a professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, emphasized the importance of regulating local government economic interventions to combat "involution and efficiency traps" [13] - Zhang Bo, director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, indicated that the real estate sector is transitioning from high-leverage expansion to high-quality development, moving away from the "real estate-only" wealth logic [16] - Shi Yongqing, founder and chairman of the Zhongyuan Group, suggested that areas with stagnant population growth should halt land sales to allow existing properties to be absorbed [20] Group 4 - Zhang Ruipeng, vice president of Yili Group, discussed the shift in China's dairy industry from "quantity-driven" to "quality-driven," highlighting the importance of deep processing in industry upgrades [24] - Wu Xiangdong, chairman of Jin Dong Investment Group, stressed that white liquor companies must innovate to achieve breakthroughs during the industry's downturn [27] - Zhen Shaoqiang, president of Penghui Energy Group, noted that the energy storage industry is experiencing a "sweet trouble," with increasing demand but also entering a period of adjustment and intensified competition [41] Group 5 - Liang Yonghui, deputy general manager of Shandong Zhaojin Refining, pointed out that while the long-term bullish trend for gold remains, a price adjustment is expected in the short term due to rapid increases in 2025 [45] - Li Tian, a fund manager at Daqing Investment, highlighted that the rise of new consumer brands is driven by the "she economy," which presents both opportunities and challenges for sustained growth [49] - Mao Dingding, a fund manager at Chuangjin Hexin Fund, indicated that the U.S. biotech sector is approaching a significant investment turning point, with opportunities for both beta and alpha returns [51]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is transitioning from a focus on quantity to a focus on quality, with an emphasis on precision and functionality in nutritional products, making deep processing a key to industry upgrade [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The demand for more precise, professional, and functional nutritional products is increasing among consumers, leading to a shift in the dairy industry [2]. - The deep processing of dairy products is becoming essential for industry advancement [2]. Group 2: Company Innovations - Yili Group has invested 17 years in developing a breakthrough technology for the directional extraction and protection of lactoferrin, successfully breaking foreign technological monopolies [5][6]. - Yili has established a diverse health product matrix, transitioning from a dairy company to a "health food group," covering various categories including liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, yogurt, cheese, and more [7]. Group 3: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yili achieved an 18.1% market share in the infant formula retail sector, ranking first in the industry [9]. - Yili's infant goat milk powder business experienced a 65.7% growth overseas, gaining consumer trust [9]. Group 4: Global Strategy - Yili has built a global industrial system with 81 production bases and 15 innovation centers, with products available in over 60 countries and regions [4]. - The company has integrated global resources for milk source, research, and manufacturing, establishing the largest Chinese breast milk research database [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that Yili Group aims to establish leadership in various segments by 2025, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of double digits in revenue from 2021 to 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average [1] Revenue Growth - The overall revenue growth of the company is influenced by consumer sentiment, with a projected CAGR of 4.55% from 2020 to 2024, compared to the industry's decline of -0.18% [1] Market Position - In the liquid milk segment, Yili maintains the top market share, continuing to lead the industry [1] - The company has achieved the highest market share in the milk powder and dairy products sector, with growth rates surpassing competitors, particularly in the cheese market [1] - Yili's ice cream business also retains the leading market share, reinforcing its leadership across all business lines [1] Future Strategy - Over the next five years, Yili plans to focus on value reconfiguration along the supply chain and explore diversification, aligning with consumer demand and channel changes [1] - The company aims for its growth rate to exceed that of the industry and national GDP growth [1] International Expansion - Yili's overseas core markets are concentrated in Indonesia, Thailand, and New Zealand, with a focus on ice cream and infant formula products [1] - The company anticipates a turning point in its ambient liquid milk segment by 2026, expecting to lead the industry in achieving growth [1] Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Group [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][15]. Core Insights - The company aims to establish leadership in various segments by 2025, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% in revenue from 2021 to 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average of -0.18% during the same period [4][5]. - The company holds the leading market share in liquid milk, milk powder, and ice cream, with continuous growth in these segments, particularly in cheese products [4][5]. - The company plans to enhance its value chain through diversification and international expansion, focusing on markets in Indonesia, Thailand, and New Zealand, while also developing functional nutrition and deep processing products [5][6]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 120.31 billion, CNY 126.17 billion, and CNY 132.41 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.91%, 4.87%, and 4.94% [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach CNY 11.25 billion, CNY 12.20 billion, and CNY 13.25 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 33.13%, 8.43%, and 8.57% [9][11]. - The company aims to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% from 2025 to 2027, ensuring a stable dividend yield of approximately 4.92% by 2026 [9][11].

Core Insights - Yili Group reported a total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan for the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.71%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.73% [1] - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a total cash dividend of 3.036 billion yuan, continuing its trend of high shareholder returns with a cumulative dividend payout of 58.566 billion yuan since its listing [1][6] Revenue Breakdown - Liquid milk remains the cornerstone of Yili's business, generating revenue of 54.939 billion yuan, maintaining a stable market share and position [2] - The milk powder segment showed significant growth, with revenue reaching 24.261 billion yuan, a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 13.74%, capturing 18.1% of the infant formula market share [3] - The ice cream segment also performed well, with revenue of 9.428 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [3] Innovation and Product Development - Yili's cheese business focused on innovation, introducing new crispy cheese products and exploring new usage scenarios for cheese spreads, aiming for double-digit growth across milk powder, cheese, and ice cream segments [4] - The company is enhancing brand value through innovative consumer engagement strategies, including collaborations with global IPs and extending health services into new consumer scenarios [5][6] Marketing Strategy - Yili is building a "versatile Yili" brand image through various marketing campaigns that resonate with consumers' emotions and lifestyles, aiming to be a trusted provider of healthy food [6] - The company emphasizes its commitment to shareholder returns, with a target dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% in the coming years [6]