Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotou Securities indicates that Yili Co., Ltd. experienced a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, while showing significant growth in the second quarter, driven by strong performance in new product launches, particularly in milk powder and cold drinks [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Yili achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39% [1] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.326 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.65% [1] - Revenue breakdown for H1 2025 includes liquid milk at 36.13 billion yuan, milk powder and dairy products at 16.58 billion yuan, cold drinks at 8.23 billion yuan, and other products at 390 million yuan, with respective year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, +12.4%, and -5.1% [1] Product Strategy - The company plans to focus on expanding high-margin businesses such as milk powder and cold drinks [1] - Yili is innovating its product matrix by launching high-end organic infant formula, special medical purpose formula milk, functional nutrition products, and new cold drink products targeting younger consumers [1] Marketing and Distribution - Yili is enhancing its digital ecosystem marketing and multi-channel layout, aiming to improve penetration rates in e-commerce and new retail channels [1] - The company is focused on increasing channel efficiency through these initiatives [1] Investment Rating - Based on the average valuation of comparable companies for 2025, Yili is given a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 34.71 yuan, corresponding to a 2025 PE ratio of 19.56x [1]

海通国际研报指出，伊利股份25H1实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润72.00亿元，25Q2实现归属于上市 公司股东的净利润23.26亿元，同比增长44.65%。分业务看：液态乳收入361.26亿元，同比下滑2.1%， 常温酸奶、常温乳饮料及高端白奶市占率提升，低温白奶收入增速超过20%，产品创新与渠道下沉成效 显著；奶粉及奶制品收入165.78亿元，同比增长14.3%，其中婴幼儿配方奶粉市场份额达18.1%，位列全 国第一；成人粉市占率26.1%，稳居行业首位；冷饮收入82.29亿元，同比增长12.4%，线上线下零售份 额继续保持行业第一。海外业务亦快速扩张：海外冷饮和羊奶粉收入分别增长14.4%和65.7%。总体 看，公司在各主要品类均形成稳固优势，多元化结构保证了业绩的韧性。随着原奶供需逐步平衡、奶价 企稳回升，以及消费结构升级与健康需求提升，公司有望继续发挥龙头优势。参考可比公司估值，给予 公司2025年21xPE，目标价为36.6元，维持"优于大市"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company demonstrates prominent operational resilience and is waiting for a cyclical upturn [1][3]. - The company has a solid brand advantage and steady momentum from diversified businesses, with significant growth in milk powder and dairy products [3][12]. - The company is focused on innovation and long-term growth, with plans to expand high-end product offerings and international markets [5][16]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 61.933 billion, a year-on-year growth of 3.37%, with a net profit of RMB 7.2 billion [3][11]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 118.61 billion, RMB 121.62 billion, and RMB 128.55 billion, with respective growth rates of 2.4%, 2.5%, and 5.7% [5][17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 11.02 billion, RMB 12.33 billion, and RMB 13.06 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 29.1%, 12.0%, and 6.0% [5][17]. Business Segments - Liquid milk revenue was RMB 36.126 billion, a decrease of 2.1%, while low-temperature plain milk revenue grew over 20% [3][12]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment saw a revenue increase of 14.3%, with infant formula market share at 18.1% [3][12]. - Frozen drinks revenue increased by 12.4%, maintaining industry-leading retail shares [3][12]. Cost Control and Efficiency - The company's gross profit margin improved from 34.91% to 36.05%, reflecting effective cost control [4][13]. - Sales and management expense ratios decreased by 1.11 percentage points and 0.15 percentage points, respectively [4][13]. - The company has strengthened cooperation with upstream and downstream partners to enhance channel efficiency [4][14]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to drive liquid milk business recovery and maintain growth in other segments while focusing on high-end product development [5][15]. - Plans include expanding into Southeast Asia and enhancing product offerings in international markets [5][16]. - The company is leveraging digital tools for refined management and operational efficiency [4][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 61.933 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.2 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported total revenue of 28.915 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.77%, with a net profit of 2.326 billion yuan, up 44.65% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.387 billion yuan, up 49.48% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is actively exploring business growth, with notable performance in new products and channels, alongside improved internal profitability due to lean management [6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, revenue from liquid milk was 36.126 billion yuan (down 2.06% year-on-year), while revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 16.578 billion yuan (up 14.26% year-on-year). Revenue from ice cream products reached 8.229 billion yuan (up 12.39% year-on-year) [5]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 36.21%, up 1.18 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for H1 2025 was 11.63%, down 0.94 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has seen a reduction in capital expenditures, with 2024 capex expected to be approximately 3.978 billion yuan (down 42.8% year-on-year) and H1 2025 capex down to 1.453 billion yuan (down 24.4% year-on-year) [6]. - The company’s marketing expenses have decreased, contributing to improved profit margins [6]. Future Earnings Projections - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 1.80 yuan and 1.95 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.5 and 14.3 times [6].

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, Yili Co., Ltd. has returned to a growth trajectory in revenue, primarily driven by the performance of milk powder, dairy products, and frozen products, despite a continued decline in liquid milk revenue [1][3]. Financial Performance - Yili achieved operating revenue of 61.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, with Q1 and Q2 revenues of 33.02 billion yuan and 28.91 billion yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.2 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year, with Q1 and Q2 profits of 4.87 billion yuan and 2.33 billion yuan, showing a quarterly improvement [3][4]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses saw a significant increase of 31.78%, reaching 7.02 billion yuan [4][12]. - Operating cash flow decreased significantly, with a net inflow of 2.96 billion yuan, down 44.34% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in advance payments from distributors [12][13]. Product Performance - Liquid milk revenue continued to decline, accounting for nearly 65% of total revenue in 2024, with a decrease of 12.32% year-on-year last year and a 2.06% decline in the first half of this year [6][7]. - In contrast, revenue from milk powder and dairy products increased by 14.26% to 16.58 billion yuan, while frozen products grew by 12.39% to 8.23 billion yuan, maintaining the top market share [7][8]. - The market share for infant formula reached 18.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while adult milk powder market share increased to 26.1%, up 1.8 percentage points [8][9]. Debt and Financing - The company has a short-term interest-bearing debt of approximately 55.2 billion yuan and has conducted 11 financing rounds this year to meet short-term cash flow needs [1][12]. - Yili has frequently engaged in short-term financing, issuing a total of 60 billion yuan in short-term financing notes in February and additional issuances throughout the year [17][19]. - The company’s total cash and short-term investments amount to approximately 36.74 billion yuan, but the debt pressure remains significant with short-term borrowings and liabilities totaling 55.2 billion yuan [14][21]. Market Position - As of September 4, Yili's stock price was 28.16 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 178.1 billion yuan and a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 21.93, indicating a relatively high valuation [22].

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is in a mild recovery phase, but Yili Group has already crossed the cycle, delivering impressive results in its half-year report for 2025 [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yili Group achieved operating revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, and a net profit of 7.016 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.78% [5] - This half-year report is considered the best in Yili's history in terms of profit quality, with no gains from the disposal of non-current assets contributing to profits [5] Business Growth Drivers - Yili's milk powder business has become a "second growth curve," with significant revenue contributions from various product lines [9] - In the first half of 2025, Yili's liquid milk revenue was 36.126 billion yuan, maintaining its industry-leading position [6] - The milk powder and dairy products segment generated 16.578 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 14.26%, while the ice cream segment reached 8.229 billion yuan, growing by 12.39% [7] Market Position and Strategy - Yili has diversified its product matrix and strengthened its channel strategy, which includes both traditional and new channels [6][10] - The company has a market share of 18.1% in the infant formula segment, leading the market with its premium product offerings [8][9] - Yili's channel strategy includes a robust network of distributors, with the number reaching 19,923 by 2023, ensuring a strong market presence [10] Channel Development - Yili has been expanding into emerging channels such as e-commerce, membership stores, and community group buying, which now contribute significantly to its business [11] - The liquid milk business accounts for 30% of sales through these new channels, reflecting the company's adaptability to market changes [11] Future Outlook - Yili aims to achieve a profit margin target of 9% for the year and plans to provide shareholders with dividends of no less than 70% of net profit [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown performance improvement with enhanced profitability, as evidenced by a 3.37% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 619.33 billion yuan, despite a 4.39% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company is expected to continue its growth momentum in the second half of 2025, driven by stable sales in liquid milk and strong performance in other product categories [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 619.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 72.00 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 70.16 billion yuan, marking a 31.78% increase year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 289.15 billion yuan, a 5.77% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 23.26 billion yuan, reflecting a 44.65% increase year-on-year [1] Product Performance - Liquid milk revenue in H1 2025 was 361.26 billion yuan, a slight decline of 2.06% year-on-year, while low-temperature fresh milk revenue grew over 20% [1] - The milk powder and dairy products segment saw a revenue increase of 14.26% in H1 2025, with the company achieving the highest market share in infant formula [1] - The ice cream segment reported a revenue of 82.29 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 12.39% increase year-on-year, with strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 36.21%, benefiting from a decline in raw milk prices [2] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 11.63%, showing a year-on-year improvement [2] - The company has managed to reduce sales expenses, leading to a decrease in the sales expense ratio [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report has adjusted the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 113.95 billion yuan, 122.71 billion yuan, and 132.55 billion yuan respectively, reflecting an increase of 5.4%, 5.3%, and 1.7% compared to previous estimates [3] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at 1.80 yuan, 1.94 yuan, and 2.10 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [3]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, Yili Group achieved operating revenue of 61.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.39% to 7.20 billion yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses increased by 31.78% to 7.02 billion yuan [1][2] - Yili's guidance for 2025 includes a target total revenue of 119 billion yuan and a profit total of 12.6 billion yuan, with over half of the year completed [1] Financial Performance - Operating revenue for the first half of 2025: 61.78 billion yuan, up 3.49% from 59.70 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Total profit for the period was 8.27 billion yuan, down 5.50% from 8.76 billion yuan [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 7.20 billion yuan, down 4.39% from 7.53 billion yuan [2] - Net profit excluding non-recurring items: 7.02 billion yuan, up 31.78% from 5.32 billion yuan [2] - Cash flow from operating activities decreased by 44.34% to 2.96 billion yuan [2] Product Performance - Revenue by product category for the first half of 2025: - Liquid milk: 36.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.61 billion yuan from the previous year [2][3] - Milk powder and dairy products: 16.58 billion yuan, an increase of 2.07 billion yuan [2][3] - Ice cream products: 8.23 billion yuan, an increase of 0.91 billion yuan [2][3] - Other products: 0.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.02 billion yuan [2][3] Sales Model - In the first half of 2025, Yili's revenue from distribution was 59.36 billion yuan, while direct sales revenue was 1.96 billion yuan [2] - The number of distributors at the end of the reporting period was 18,099, a net decrease of 489 compared to the previous year [2][5] Regional Distribution - Distributor numbers by region at the end of the reporting period: - North: 4,888, a decrease of 89 - South China: 5,633, an increase of 411 - Central: 3,662, a decrease of 225 - East China: 2,927, a decrease of 10 - Others: 989, a decrease of 576 - Total: 18,099, a decrease of 489 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group's half-year report shows strong performance with revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, and a net profit of 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78%, exceeding market expectations [1][3] Financial Performance - In the second quarter, Yili's revenue grew by 5.77%, with net profit increasing by 44.65% year-on-year, indicating a clear profitability turning point [3] - The overall gross margin for Yili reached 36.21%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin hit a historical high of 11.33% [4] Business Segments - Yili's liquid milk business generated revenue of 36.126 billion yuan, maintaining the largest market share in the industry, while the milk powder and dairy products segment saw revenue of 16.578 billion yuan, a growth of 14.26% [3] - The company achieved over 30% revenue growth in goat milk powder, increasing its market share to 34.4%, and the cheese and dairy fat business targeting professional clients also grew by over 20% [3] Diversification and Growth Strategy - Yili's diversified business now accounts for over 40% of its revenue, contributing significantly to its profitability [4] - The company is focusing on high-end markets and optimizing its product matrix to enhance overall gross margins [4] Industry Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to see structural growth, with demand factors becoming more prominent as supply issues are resolved [5] - Yili is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in liquid milk supply and the anticipated rise in raw milk prices, which could lead to a new growth phase [6]

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group's half-year report shows strong performance with revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, and a net profit of 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78%, exceeding market expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q2, Yili's revenue grew by 5.77%, with net profit increasing by 44.65% year-on-year, indicating a clear profitability turning point [2] - The overall gross margin for Yili reached 36.21%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 11.33%, marking a historical high [3] Business Segments - Yili's liquid milk segment generated revenue of 36.126 billion yuan, maintaining the largest market share in the industry; the milk powder and dairy products segment achieved 16.578 billion yuan in revenue, up 14.26%, also leading the market [2] - The diversified business now accounts for over 40% of Yili's revenue, with high gross margins contributing to overall profitability [3] Market Trends - The dairy industry is expected to see growth, with structural opportunities in low-temperature milk and rural markets [5] - Yili is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends due to its strong brand, distribution channels, and supply chain advantages [5] Future Outlook - The stabilization of raw milk prices is anticipated to lead to a new growth phase for Yili, with expectations of a return to a state of volume and price increase [6] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing dairy production are expected to further support the industry's recovery [6]