二元经济结构
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中国市场中的二元经济结构
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 06:18
经济的角度说,在同一竞争性的领域中,执行两种不平等的规则,在规则上有了等差,经济奥林匹克赛场上出现了两种裁判规则,就从根本上失去了奥林匹 克精神,弱势的一方不具有长期性,不可能成为耐心资本,生产力将受到压制,引起效率递减。 在在全球化的背景,经济等差也是一个异类,无法融入国 际秩序,最终将步履沉重。 刘世锦提出:在同一个竞争性领域中,国企民企一视同仁。政策也已经有类似的语言,并写入了《民营经济促进法》,但体制机制的特征,决定了一视同仁 是选择性命题,正如我们现在谈"让市场主导资源配置",确定地说,是宏观文件主导下的"市场主导"。 这种商业环境中的等差是有传统的,古代分为官商与民商,所不同的是,老百姓爱骂官商,"宫使驱将惜不得";现在冠以"全民所有制",国营就成了"人民 的企业",而民营成了过街老鼠,国人的思维真的很分裂。 这种二元结构经济也被一些学者称之为中国模式。 比如,张维为认为中国经济的成功,就是成功于这种中国模式。 其实,中国经济的模式远没有定型,二元结构是不是能成为一种独特的模式,还有待于实 践的考验,是不是能一直走下去,是不是最终要做出向左,或向右的选择;都要打一个很大的问号,但最终一定会做出选择 ...
最有效的刺激消费政策:直接+预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 02:45
Group 1 - The consumer price index has not met expectations, currently at -0.1%, making it unlikely to achieve the 2% target set in the report, which is already lower than last year's 3% target [2] - Achieving the 2% target is crucial, especially in 2025, as it will be a significant year due to an unprecedented tariff war that will reshape the economy's reliance on external demand [3] - The macroeconomic strategy involves stimulating domestic consumption to counteract the effects of the tariff war, emphasizing the need for a strong internal market to avoid factory closures and unemployment [3] Group 2 - The challenge lies in boosting consumer spending, with strategies including lowering deposit rates and providing consumption subsidies, but market reactions have been tepid, leading to concerns among scholars [5] - Direct cash distribution to consumers is suggested as a more effective method to stimulate spending, allowing consumers to dictate market resource allocation rather than pushing them to buy surplus products [5][9] - The lack of positive expectations is a significant barrier to consumption and investment, with banks holding vast amounts of deposits due to a pessimistic outlook on the private economy and structural issues in income distribution [7] Group 3 - The most effective consumption stimulus policy is direct cash distribution combined with improving expectations, aiming to reduce household debt and promote consumption upgrades [9] - Addressing insufficient domestic demand is critical, especially in the context of the tariff war, as failure to do so could lead to ongoing economic risks [9]