最新宏观经济数据再次警示，单纯地通过刺激消费的政策，并不能真正让消费者基于偏好满足而进行消 费，因此也就难以真正有效改变消费者偏好和需求弹性，政策刺激的结果是把未来的消费前移，但并没 增加最终消费需求总量，最终也容易加大未来的有效需求不足压力。 这是因为，若市场主体收入结构、对未来收入和工作的安全感等没变化，抑或容易产生不稳定担忧等， 引导需求弹性变化的消费者心理账户结构不仅没有产生对即期消费的偏好，而且甚至可能会产生明显的 损失规避效应。 为此，巩固经济企稳向好趋势，不是回归到投资驱动的传统轨道，也不是继续刺激消费，而是从根本上 改变人们对消费与储蓄的相对价格，从而改变人们的需求弹性，真正营造一个消费友好型制度环境。 巩固经济企稳向好趋势，不是回归到投资驱动的传统轨道，也不是继续刺激消费，而是从根本上改变人 们对消费与储蓄的相对价格，从而改变人们的需求弹性，真正营造一个消费友好型制度环境。 补齐消费短板是当前经济不可或缺的助推力。 9日国家统计局公布7月份物价水平数据：7月CPI同比增长0，前值为0.1%，其中核心CPI同比上涨 0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大；7月PPI同比增长-3.6%，前值-3.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The consumer price index has not met expectations, currently at -0.1%, making it unlikely to achieve the 2% target set in the report, which is already lower than last year's 3% target [2] - Achieving the 2% target is crucial, especially in 2025, as it will be a significant year due to an unprecedented tariff war that will reshape the economy's reliance on external demand [3] - The macroeconomic strategy involves stimulating domestic consumption to counteract the effects of the tariff war, emphasizing the need for a strong internal market to avoid factory closures and unemployment [3] Group 2 - The challenge lies in boosting consumer spending, with strategies including lowering deposit rates and providing consumption subsidies, but market reactions have been tepid, leading to concerns among scholars [5] - Direct cash distribution to consumers is suggested as a more effective method to stimulate spending, allowing consumers to dictate market resource allocation rather than pushing them to buy surplus products [5][9] - The lack of positive expectations is a significant barrier to consumption and investment, with banks holding vast amounts of deposits due to a pessimistic outlook on the private economy and structural issues in income distribution [7] Group 3 - The most effective consumption stimulus policy is direct cash distribution combined with improving expectations, aiming to reduce household debt and promote consumption upgrades [9] - Addressing insufficient domestic demand is critical, especially in the context of the tariff war, as failure to do so could lead to ongoing economic risks [9]