二是节后短期外部风险可能有限：首先，1 月美联储大概率降息；其次，年初中美关系维持平稳，俄乌 等地缘冲突可能缓和，但中日关系仍可能偏紧。（2）节后短期流动性可能进一步宽松。一是节后宏观 流动性可能进一步宽松：首先，1 月美联储降息是大概率；其次，元旦后国内央行可能进一步降息降 准。二是节后短期股市资金可能加速流入。（3）元旦假期期间港股表现偏强，可能对节后A 股表现有 一定提振作用。（4）节后短期经济和盈利仍在弱修复。一是节后经济依然处于弱修复。二是节后企业 盈利也可能继续修复：首先，11 月工业企业利润继续回落，盈利修复仍偏弱；其次，节后部分科技和 周期行业可能公布年报预告，盈利可能继续回升。 节后科技成长和部分周期行业可能相对占优。（1）复盘历史，政策和产业趋势向上等驱动节前强势的 行业在节后延续强势。一是复盘历史，节前领涨行业在节后出现切换主要受情绪偏高、大盘出现调整等 驱动。二是复盘历史，政策和产业趋势向上等驱动节前强势的行业在节后延续强势。（2）今年来看， 元旦后科技成长和部分周期行业可能相对占优。一是节后科技成长和部分周期行业产业趋势可能持续上 行：首先，节后科技产业趋势和政策支持可能持续向上；其 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：多空逻辑 前段时间，鸡蛋期货远月合约连续大涨，尤其是远月旺季合约jd2608短短几天从4000点直接拉到4373 点。这么早就开始暴涨了，不仅引起市场的广泛关注，同时也引起了一定的争议，多空双方分歧进一步 加剧。然后，我们就简单来聊一聊这个事情。 1突然的暴涨 以jd2608合约为代表的明年远月合约突然连续大涨的直接驱动因素可能来自于傅老师的发言，因为当时 有人在抖音直播时，拿出了与傅老师的对话，对话内容是傅老师对明年鸡蛋的看法，大体意思是明年旺 季鸡蛋能上5块甚至6块。 因为傅老师的影响力还是非常大的，所以后面鸡蛋就继续大涨，不断创新高，也不知道是不是有空头提 前进去做空然后被拉爆了，所以就举报了。 随后远月旺季合约就开始恢复了平静，每天都是波动不大的小幅回调，这个时候不知道是不是又有人高 位追进去被套了，所以在群里就怼傅老师。 关于这件事，对交易者有很多启发的意义，通过一件事情，你可以理解很多类似的事情。 首先，要学习成功人士，但不要神话他。我们都知道傅老师是期货草根成功的杰出代表，他说了很多朴 素又有道理的话。一直都知道傅老师说：棉 ...

周周芝道 - 内外需的平衡术 20251215 在当前背景下，有哪些可能的刺激消费政策？ 摘要 中国消费趋势与房地产市场高度相关，地产政策放松虽短期刺激消费， 但政策退坡及财政支出调整导致消费承压。资产缩水和收入增长放缓是 消费疲软的关键因素。 中国总量消费难以重现过去 20 年的"咆哮时代"，房地产扩张带来的 全民造富时代已结束，人口出生率下降也预示着难以再现奢侈型泡沫经 济。 刺激消费需谨慎，不应期待大规模刺激政策。应适度调整财政支出结构， 加强对中低收入群体支持，推动旧换新，鼓励服务类和体验类消费。 十四五规划期间，中国内需从高位滑落，政策更注重防风险，从房地产 泡沫向正常住房需求过渡。十五五规划则强调内需企稳，追求更加符合 潜在增长率的平稳发展。 刺激消费政策渠道包括稳定居民资产（房价），促进收入增长（外需、 新产业），以及财政对冲措施（补贴、减税、社保）。短期内，财政补 贴和民生领域兜底可能更为有效。 未来几年，中国消费将从快速扩张转向理性增长模式，受人口结构、城 镇化放缓、房地产市场调整等多重因素影响。 政府对当前经济形势有清晰判断，并采取措施确保平稳过渡。未来消费 将更多依赖于财富效应、收入水平 ...

文：曹多鱼 就有朋友还在问我，最近铺天盖地出了刺激消费政策， 的审批越来越简单了，但他不理解，为什么现在刺激消费不直接发钱呢？ 消费贷 怎么说呢？ 因为大家要记住一件事： 我们刺激消费的初衷，不是真的希望老百姓去买买买，而是希望老百姓花出去的钱，能够刺激经济，带动经济增长，而最好的情况则是老百姓花出去的钱， 要能被财政回收。 于是这里就有了一个税的问题： 简单解释一下，我国目前第一大税种是增值税，而增值税是针对生产端的货物销售增值额的征税， 间接税从税收分类来看，增值税就是标准的，而间接税 的特点，就是和消费没什么关系，所以它只能从生产和流通环节征收。 而正是这种从生产和流通环节征税的税务逻辑，就会使得地方政府在做决策的时候，更倾向于投资生产，而非推动消费。 而在这个框架下，消费贷和消费补贴是顺税收逻辑，而增加收入这个问题，跟现有的税收逻辑是对立的。 于是政策设计层刺激消费的时候，是有计划的。 没错，你没听错，咱这的消费被计划的。 老百姓最想要的消费，是随心所欲的，突出一个我想买啥就买啥，我缺什么我买什么，但你实际去看这种消费，都不怎么被鼓励的。 举个例子，如果你要消费奢侈品，我们完全不鼓励，因为奢侈品大多不 ...

Summary of Emei Mountain Company Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Emei Mountain Company, which operates in the tourism industry, specifically focusing on the Emei Mountain scenic area and its related services such as ticketing, cable cars, and hotel accommodations [2][10]. Key Points and Arguments - **Technological Empowerment**: Emei Mountain is actively exploring technological innovations to enhance visitor interaction and experience, aiming to increase tourist flow and related revenues from tickets, cable cars, and hotels. This initiative is primarily managed by subsidiaries Shitu Network and Lingchuang [2][3]. - **Leshan Airport Development**: The upcoming opening of Leshan Airport is seen as a significant opportunity. The company plans to enhance marketing efforts to improve awareness of travel convenience to Emei Mountain and develop corresponding travel routes, while continuing to promote joint tourism routes with the Leshan Giant Buddha [2][6]. - **Golden Summit Cableway Project**: The approval process for the Golden Summit cableway renovation is complex, requiring national-level approvals. The project is part of the 2025 capital expenditure plan, with no significant changes in investment scale or amount anticipated [2][7][8]. - **High Debt Ratio**: The company's high asset-liability ratio is attributed to its strategic development as a wholly state-owned enterprise, which also undertakes some tourism infrastructure construction responsibilities. Currently, there are no plans for equity pledge financing [2][9][10]. - **Social Responsibility and Marketing**: The company is conducting free ticket and cable car promotions as part of its social responsibility and marketing strategy, aimed at enhancing its market value management, which is a long-term goal [5][10]. - **New Product Launches**: Emei Mountain's tea brand, Emei Snow Bud, has introduced new products like beer, with efforts underway to enhance marketing and brand influence, aiming to make these products a highlight of sales revenue [5][11]. - **Impact of Holiday Policies**: National holiday policies, such as the Spring and Autumn holidays, positively influence tourist flow. The company plans to leverage these policies with targeted marketing activities and develop specific tourism products for these periods [5][12]. - **Visitor Demographics**: Post-introduction of the Autumn holiday, there has been a positive impact on visitor numbers, with approximately 80% of visitors being individual travelers and over 50% being under the age of 45 [12]. Other Important Information - The company is currently in a phase of exploring AI and robotics, which is not expected to yield significant short-term profits but is aimed at attracting younger demographics and enhancing visitor experiences [3]. - The company is not facing any competition issues with its new major shareholder, as per the strategic decisions made by the local government [10]. - The company is committed to ongoing communication regarding project updates and operational timelines through official announcements [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that consolidating the trend of economic stabilization requires fundamentally changing people's perception of the relative prices of consumption and savings, rather than reverting to traditional investment-driven models or continuing to stimulate consumption [1][3]. - The current economic push requires addressing the shortcomings in consumption, as highlighted by the July CPI data showing a year-on-year growth of 0% and a core CPI increase of 0.8%, indicating marginal economic improvement [2][3]. - Experts argue that consumption-driven economic growth is not feasible, as stimulating consumption does not directly alter consumer preferences and demand elasticity without changing the relative prices of consumption and savings [2][3]. Group 2 - Economic stimulus policies have rarely focused on consumption, as the effectiveness of such policies depends on aligning the preferences of policymakers and consumers to realize the multiplier effect of consumption [3][4]. - The need for social security and healthcare reforms is urgent to stabilize people's future uncertainties, which can be achieved through tax reforms and enhancing the pension system [4]. - Market-oriented reforms and the establishment of a unified national market are essential to provide more freedom for market participants, which can lead to improved investment returns and economic stability [4][5]. Group 3 - These reforms are expected to significantly alter the demand elasticity of the economy, making consumption a true driving force for economic growth [5]. - The government should shift towards a governance model focused on public services to create a fair competitive economic order, allowing collective intelligence from market participants to emerge and drive economic progress [6].

Group 1 - The consumer price index has not met expectations, currently at -0.1%, making it unlikely to achieve the 2% target set in the report, which is already lower than last year's 3% target [2] - Achieving the 2% target is crucial, especially in 2025, as it will be a significant year due to an unprecedented tariff war that will reshape the economy's reliance on external demand [3] - The macroeconomic strategy involves stimulating domestic consumption to counteract the effects of the tariff war, emphasizing the need for a strong internal market to avoid factory closures and unemployment [3] Group 2 - The challenge lies in boosting consumer spending, with strategies including lowering deposit rates and providing consumption subsidies, but market reactions have been tepid, leading to concerns among scholars [5] - Direct cash distribution to consumers is suggested as a more effective method to stimulate spending, allowing consumers to dictate market resource allocation rather than pushing them to buy surplus products [5][9] - The lack of positive expectations is a significant barrier to consumption and investment, with banks holding vast amounts of deposits due to a pessimistic outlook on the private economy and structural issues in income distribution [7] Group 3 - The most effective consumption stimulus policy is direct cash distribution combined with improving expectations, aiming to reduce household debt and promote consumption upgrades [9] - Addressing insufficient domestic demand is critical, especially in the context of the tariff war, as failure to do so could lead to ongoing economic risks [9]