铅周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 消费预期较好 铅价震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价延续强势。宏观面看，特朗普关税 谈判取得一定进展，同时大美丽法案通过，国内 6 月 PMI 数据环比回升，市场情绪偏好，美元延续弱势， 利多铅价。 要点 基本面看，原料端的供需缺口未有改善，内外铅精矿 加工费维持低位，尤其是进口矿，负加工费问题突出， 且随着炼厂 ...

Group 1 - The consumer price index has not met expectations, currently at -0.1%, making it unlikely to achieve the 2% target set in the report, which is already lower than last year's 3% target [2] - Achieving the 2% target is crucial, especially in 2025, as it will be a significant year due to an unprecedented tariff war that will reshape the economy's reliance on external demand [3] - The macroeconomic strategy involves stimulating domestic consumption to counteract the effects of the tariff war, emphasizing the need for a strong internal market to avoid factory closures and unemployment [3] Group 2 - The challenge lies in boosting consumer spending, with strategies including lowering deposit rates and providing consumption subsidies, but market reactions have been tepid, leading to concerns among scholars [5] - Direct cash distribution to consumers is suggested as a more effective method to stimulate spending, allowing consumers to dictate market resource allocation rather than pushing them to buy surplus products [5][9] - The lack of positive expectations is a significant barrier to consumption and investment, with banks holding vast amounts of deposits due to a pessimistic outlook on the private economy and structural issues in income distribution [7] Group 3 - The most effective consumption stimulus policy is direct cash distribution combined with improving expectations, aiming to reduce household debt and promote consumption upgrades [9] - Addressing insufficient domestic demand is critical, especially in the context of the tariff war, as failure to do so could lead to ongoing economic risks [9]

2025年05月09日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡运行。基本面：英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，细节待敲定，美方保留 | 10%基 | | | | 准关税，美元上涨，风险偏好提振。供应端铜矿紧张格局延续，华东华南平水铜现货升水 210 元和 140 | | 元， | | 铜 | 国内库存周度去化 0.8 万吨，月差结构继续走强。交易策略：短期以震荡思路对待。风险提示：全球需求不及 | | | | | 预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：昨日锌 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.49%，收于 22,565 元/吨。国内 0-3 月差 645 元/吨 | Back， | | | | 海外 0-3 月差 36.9 美元/吨 Con 结构，华南、华东对 2506 合约 500 元/吨升水，2506 合约 500 | 元/吨升水。 | | | | 社会库存 5 月 8 日 8.33 万吨，较 5 月 6 日去库 0.08 万吨 | | | | | 基本面：供应端，矿加工费上涨 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-29 消费预期仍较弱，碳酸锂继续探底 市场分析 2025年4月28日，碳酸锂主力合约2505开于68080元/吨，收于66960元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌2.07%。当 日成交量为145735手，持仓量为246197手，较前一交易日增加28827手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳1890 元/吨。所有合约总持仓393166手，较前一交易日减少3011手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加42206手，成交 量增加，整体投机度为0.49 。当日碳酸锂仓单32847手，较上个交易日增加1052手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年4月28日电池级碳酸锂报价6.74-7.03万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.095万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.665-6.755万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.095万元/吨。部分锂盐企业陆续检修或减产，周度产量 环比继续小幅下降，但整体来看，减产力度不及预期，碳酸锂产量仍处于高位，减产难以对供需过剩格局造成实 质性改变。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心大幅下移。由于当前下游材料厂五一节前备库已结束，采购意愿较为薄弱； 叠加后续需求难达此 ...