国庆刚过，卖家的战场却没能"放假"。 AMZ123了解到， 亚马逊2025年秋季大促（Prime Big Deal Days）已于10月7日至8日全面开启，横跨美、英、德、法、日、加、澳等 16个站点。 其中，日本站率先引爆，从10月4日起提前开跑并持续至10日；加拿大、澳洲、土耳其、新加坡等地紧随其后，促销战线一口气拉到 13日。 但对不少卖家来说，熟悉的剧情再次上演——广告依旧烧钱，利润依然稀薄。秋促延续了夏促的热度，也延续了那份"卖得多、赚得 少"的无奈。 在社交平台上，不少卖家用一个字总结了今年的秋促——惨。 "广告猛烧，单倒是没出几个。" "我是真差到睡不着，比平时还差，到底谁在爆单啊？" "这促销还不如不报，还没前一天销量好，利润还低，怕是两天都回不了这一百刀。" 调侃背后，是卖家们对平台流量分配、广告机制、以及"促销是否真的带动消费"的集体质疑。他们甚至戏称——今年的Prime Big Deal Days，像是亚马逊忘了通知买家。 对此AMZ123认为，今年的秋促之所以"热度不爆、销量不升"，根源或许不在卖家操作，而在行业与消费环境的多重叠加。 一是流量格局变了。 亚马逊站内广告的拍卖机制越来越 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On September 15, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 71,260 yuan/ton and closed at 72,680 yuan/ton, with a 2.31% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 482,790 lots, and the open interest was 309,446 lots, compared to 309,402 lots the previous day. The current basis is 50 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,963 lots, a change of 338 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 71,300 - 73,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 69,600 - 7,0800 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 810 US dollars/ton, a change of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories are generally in a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and market transactions have weakened. However, due to the peak demand season and pre - National Day stockpiling needs, their purchasing willingness is strong when prices are relatively low [1]. - In terms of supply, lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lepidolite has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows a situation where both supply and demand increase, but demand grows faster, and a temporary supply shortage is expected this month [1]. - The weekly production increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons, with small increases in production from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, while inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased significantly, indicating good downstream restocking willingness [2]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, among 623 products of large - scale industries, 319 had year - on - year production growth. For example, steel production was 122.77 million tons, a 9.7% increase; cement was 148.02 million tons, a 6.2% decrease; ten non - ferrous metals were 6.98 million tons, a 3.8% increase; ethylene was 3.14 million tons, a 10.4% increase; automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a 10.5% increase, among which new - energy vehicles were 1.333 million vehicles, a 22.7% increase; power generation was 936.3 billion kWh, a 1.6% increase; and crude oil processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a 7.6% increase [2]. 2. Core View - The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday, mainly affected by leading companies' upward revision of battery cell shipment expectations. With support from the peak consumption season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is good, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the market has some support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term. After the resumption of mining production and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [3]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, sell - hedging on rallies. - Inter - delivery spread: None. - Cross - product: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3].

智利《三点钟报》9月10日报道，智利央行发布九月货币政策报告，2025年经济增 长预期区间上限上调至2.25%-2.75%，2025年底通胀预期提高至4%，同时通胀降至3% 目标的时间从原先预测的2026年上半年推迟至2026年第三季度，推迟原因在于核心通 胀高于预期，加之私人支出强劲、工资压力高企、本币汇率低于贬值预期等因素。此 外，内需（从3.2%至4.3%）、投资（从3.7%至5.5%）、消费（从2.6%至3%）和个人消 费（从2.2%至2.7%）等多项指标预期均被上调。其中投资主要受大型项目、有利金融 条件和商业信心推动。 （原标题：智利央行上调2025年经济增长预期） ...

铅周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 消费预期较好 铅价震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价延续强势。宏观面看，特朗普关税 谈判取得一定进展，同时大美丽法案通过，国内 6 月 PMI 数据环比回升，市场情绪偏好，美元延续弱势， 利多铅价。 要点 基本面看，原料端的供需缺口未有改善，内外铅精矿 加工费维持低位，尤其是进口矿，负加工费问题突出， 且随着炼厂 ...

Group 1 - The consumer price index has not met expectations, currently at -0.1%, making it unlikely to achieve the 2% target set in the report, which is already lower than last year's 3% target [2] - Achieving the 2% target is crucial, especially in 2025, as it will be a significant year due to an unprecedented tariff war that will reshape the economy's reliance on external demand [3] - The macroeconomic strategy involves stimulating domestic consumption to counteract the effects of the tariff war, emphasizing the need for a strong internal market to avoid factory closures and unemployment [3] Group 2 - The challenge lies in boosting consumer spending, with strategies including lowering deposit rates and providing consumption subsidies, but market reactions have been tepid, leading to concerns among scholars [5] - Direct cash distribution to consumers is suggested as a more effective method to stimulate spending, allowing consumers to dictate market resource allocation rather than pushing them to buy surplus products [5][9] - The lack of positive expectations is a significant barrier to consumption and investment, with banks holding vast amounts of deposits due to a pessimistic outlook on the private economy and structural issues in income distribution [7] Group 3 - The most effective consumption stimulus policy is direct cash distribution combined with improving expectations, aiming to reduce household debt and promote consumption upgrades [9] - Addressing insufficient domestic demand is critical, especially in the context of the tariff war, as failure to do so could lead to ongoing economic risks [9]

2025年05月09日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡运行。基本面：英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，细节待敲定，美方保留 | 10%基 | | | | 准关税，美元上涨，风险偏好提振。供应端铜矿紧张格局延续，华东华南平水铜现货升水 210 元和 140 | | 元， | | 铜 | 国内库存周度去化 0.8 万吨，月差结构继续走强。交易策略：短期以震荡思路对待。风险提示：全球需求不及 | | | | | 预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：昨日锌 2506 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.49%，收于 22,565 元/吨。国内 0-3 月差 645 元/吨 | Back， | | | | 海外 0-3 月差 36.9 美元/吨 Con 结构，华南、华东对 2506 合约 500 元/吨升水，2506 合约 500 | 元/吨升水。 | | | | 社会库存 5 月 8 日 8.33 万吨，较 5 月 6 日去库 0.08 万吨 | | | | | 基本面：供应端，矿加工费上涨 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-29 消费预期仍较弱，碳酸锂继续探底 市场分析 2025年4月28日，碳酸锂主力合约2505开于68080元/吨，收于66960元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌2.07%。当 日成交量为145735手，持仓量为246197手，较前一交易日增加28827手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳1890 元/吨。所有合约总持仓393166手，较前一交易日减少3011手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加42206手，成交 量增加，整体投机度为0.49 。当日碳酸锂仓单32847手，较上个交易日增加1052手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年4月28日电池级碳酸锂报价6.74-7.03万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.095万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.665-6.755万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.095万元/吨。部分锂盐企业陆续检修或减产，周度产量 环比继续小幅下降，但整体来看，减产力度不及预期，碳酸锂产量仍处于高位，减产难以对供需过剩格局造成实 质性改变。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心大幅下移。由于当前下游材料厂五一节前备库已结束，采购意愿较为薄弱； 叠加后续需求难达此 ...