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固定收益专题研究:城农商行改革化险成效几何?
Guohai Securities· 2026-01-15 12:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "non - redemption" of secondary and perpetual bonds of small and medium - sized financial institutions is expected not to become a regular event causing systemic financial risks. After the restructuring of urban and rural commercial banks, key indicators may improve, and asset scale and quality may be systematically enhanced, effectively controlling "non - redemption" events [3]. - In 2025, the integration of small and medium - sized financial institutions across the country achieved remarkable results. The number of legal entities of banking financial institutions decreased compared to the end of 2024 and the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan". Urban commercial banks mainly used absorption and merger models to integrate rural banks, while rural commercial banks promoted the establishment of provincial - level rural commercial banks under four models [3][25]. - In the context of reform and risk mitigation in 2026, it is recommended to moderately dig for coupons along the two main lines of changes in the subject level and the strength of regional economies, combined with key indicators. Attention should also be paid to the positive impacts on regional rural commercial banks under the unified legal person model and the opportunities for secondary and perpetual bonds in provinces with a good economic foundation under the joint - bank model [3][4][53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1中小金融机构风险为何成为市场焦点 - In October 2025, relevant policies proposed to resolve risks of small and medium - sized financial institutions, making risk resolution a key focus in 2026. Small and medium - sized financial institutions face risks due to multiple factors, and the spread of relevant public opinions such as "delayed interest payment" of secondary and perpetual bonds and "non - redemption" of capital - supplementing bonds has attracted attention [9]. 3.2聚焦商业银行"不赎回"风险 - In 2025, regulatory authorities in Shandong and Tianjin required reporting of non - redemption of secondary capital bonds within 24 hours. Since the first case of non - redemption of secondary capital bonds by commercial banks, most non - redeeming entities have faced various problems. From 2018 to 2025, most non - redeeming entities were urban and rural commercial banks, and non - redemption cases were concentrated in northern and central provinces. Since 2023, non - redemption events have gradually decreased, and it is expected not to cause systemic financial risks [9][12]. - As of the end of 2025, banks that do not exercise the redemption right find it difficult to issue new bonds. Among the entities that have triggered "non - redemption" events, 7 have issued new bonds, including 2 urban commercial banks and 5 rural commercial banks. Since 2024, only Tianjin Bank, Jiujiang Bank, and Yinzhou Rural Commercial Bank, with AA + and above ratings, have issued new secondary and perpetual bonds, showing premiums compared to similar bonds [21]. 3.3城农商行整合成效几何 - In 2025, the number of small and medium - sized financial institutions such as urban and rural commercial banks continued to decrease. Urban commercial banks mainly used absorption and merger models to integrate rural banks, while rural commercial banks promoted the establishment of provincial - level rural commercial banks under four models. As of the end of 2025, 14 rural commercial banks had clear integration progress, mainly in the "unified legal person" and "joint - bank" models [25][27]. - In terms of asset scale, in 2025, the asset - scale growth rates of joint - stock and urban and rural commercial banks accelerated, with urban commercial banks having a significantly higher growth rate. Urban commercial banks' growth was mainly due to credit expansion in the Yangtze River Delta region, while rural commercial banks' asset scale increased slightly. In terms of asset quality, rural commercial banks' non - performing loans decreased significantly in the process of integration, and their provision coverage ratio increased, while urban commercial banks had an increase in non - performing loan balances and a weakening of the provision coverage ratio [30][33]. - In terms of capital adequacy, from 2023 - 2025, the core tier - 1 capital of commercial banks increased significantly. Since 2025, the capital adequacy ratio and core tier - 1 capital have shown a fluctuating downward trend. In 2025, only state - owned large - scale banks and rural commercial banks saw an increase in capital adequacy ratio. Rural commercial banks' capital adequacy ratio was optimized through integration, while urban commercial banks' capital adequacy ratio fluctuated between 12% - 13% [38]. - The important capital - supplementing channels for banks include capital increase and share expansion, shareholder injection, special treasury bonds, TLAC, special bonds for small and medium - sized banks, convertible bonds, secondary and perpetual bonds, and internal sources. Rural commercial banks may rely more on direct forms such as "shareholder injection" and "debt - to - equity swap" in the short term and need to strengthen asset quality and expand financing channels in the long term [43]. 3.4改革化险背景下如何挖掘 - In 2026, state - owned large - scale banks and joint - stock banks are the main entities for the exercise and maturity of secondary and perpetual bonds, and the maturity scale of urban and rural commercial banks' existing bonds is relatively small. It is recommended to moderately dig for coupons along the two main lines of changes in the subject level and the strength of regional economies. Attention should be paid to the positive impacts on regional rural commercial banks under the unified legal person model and the opportunities for secondary and perpetual bonds in provinces with a good economic foundation under the joint - bank model. For provinces in the early stage of integration, opportunities in regions such as Guangdong and Hunan can be considered [53].