固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 透视券商自营债市策略 ——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（八） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 券商自营债券持仓规模持续增长，但市场占比略有下降，配置结构从以信用债为主转向利率债 与信用债并重，反映出对资本利得的博弈需求增强。其交易行为高频灵活且内部分化显著，久 期呈上升趋势以提升收益。通过胜率模型分析，券商在 10 年期国债上展现出较强的持仓成本 控制能力但止盈表现较弱，在二永债止盈与持仓成本胜率均更优。债券借贷业务是券商重要的 策略工具，参与动机多元，涵盖融资、做空、套息及结算应急等多重维度，以实现杠杆、方向 和套利收益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 报告要点 [Table_Title 透视券商自营债市策略 2] ——走在 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, credit bond yields continued to fluctuate slightly at a low level, and most credit spreads in different industries reached historical lows since early 2024. The short - term urban investment bond spreads within 3 years have been compressed to the 3% quantile or lower since early 2024, while the long - term spreads over 5 years still have some room to decline. The credit spreads of 3 - 5Y AA+ industrial bonds are currently in the range of 65 - 70BP, and the credit spreads of 3 - 5Y AA+ secondary perpetual bonds are in the range of 50 - 70BP, with some potential. Considering the support from the opening of amortized open - end bond funds in the next six months for 3 - 5Y credit bonds, investors are advised to pay appropriate attention to investment opportunities in 3 - 5Y general credit bonds and secondary perpetual bonds [5][57]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Credit Hot Events - **Low - price trading of Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank's secondary capital bonds**: Since the end of October, there have been multiple secondary transactions of Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank's outstanding secondary capital bond "21 Jiutai Rural Secondary" significantly below the valuation, with a transaction price of around 50 yuan. The bank has not released its 2024 annual report, 2025 quarterly reports, and its operation has been under pressure in recent years, with net profit continuously declining and a large loss in 2024, and the capital adequacy ratio approaching the warning line, which has raised market concerns about non - redemption or write - down [10]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange's written warnings to 3 bond issuers**: Zhenjiang Urban Construction Industry Group, Guangning County Huiye Asset Operation Co., Ltd., and Hongda Xingye Group Co., Ltd. were warned for issues such as non - standard management of special accounts for raised funds, non - compliance with the use of raised funds as stipulated in the prospectus, and inaccurate and untimely information disclosure [13]. - **PBC Beijing Branch's support for science - and - technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market**: On November 18, 12 departments including the PBC Beijing Branch issued an implementation plan to support eligible enterprises in service consumption fields such as culture, tourism, and education to issue bonds, encourage science - and - technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market, and support consumer finance companies, auto finance companies, and financial leasing companies to issue financial bonds [14]. 2. Primary Market 2.1 Net Financing Scale - **Overall situation**: This week, the net financing of traditional credit bonds increased compared with last week, while the net financing of asset - backed securities decreased by 18.4 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was 5.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.11 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 13.46 billion yuan, an increase of 6.31 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 13.58 billion yuan, an increase of 7.65 billion yuan [3][16]. - **Issuance and redemption quantity**: The issuance quantity of urban investment bonds increased by 32, and the redemption quantity decreased by 22; the issuance quantity of industrial bonds increased by 65, and the redemption quantity increased by 19; the issuance quantity of financial bonds increased by 13, and the redemption quantity decreased by 13 [20]. 2.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance interest rates of AA urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased significantly this week, falling within the range of 2.6 - 2.8%. The issuance interest rates of other bonds with different ratings were in the range of 1.9 - 2.4%. Specifically, the average issuance interest rates of AA urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 24BP and 28BP respectively compared with last week. The average issuance interest rates of AA+ and AAA urban investment bonds increased slightly, and the average issuance interest rate of AAA financial bonds increased by 7BP. The average issuance interest rates of other credit bonds with different ratings decreased by 1 - 4BP [3][24]. 3. Secondary Market 3.1 Transaction Situation - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of credit bonds increased by 34.1 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 234.5 billion yuan, an increase of 14.9 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 381.1 billion yuan, an increase of 46.7 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 470.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.5 billion yuan; the trading volume of asset - backed securities was 18.7 billion yuan, unchanged from last week [3]. - **Turnover rate**: The turnover rates of credit bonds showed mixed trends compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.51%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 2.02%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.07%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.52%, unchanged from last week [26]. 3.2 Yields - The yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities fluctuated slightly this week, with a fluctuation range of no more than 3BP. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds within 1 year fluctuated by no more than 1BP; the yields of 5Y AA and AAA+ credit bonds decreased by less than 1BP, and the yield of 5Y AAA - credit bonds increased by 3BP; the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds over 10 years increased by 1BP [29]. 3.3 Credit Spreads - **Overall situation**: Except for the relatively large fluctuations in the credit spreads of AA+ non - bank finance, leisure services, and textile and clothing industries compared with last week, the fluctuations of credit spreads in other industries and ratings were within 5BP. The credit spreads of AA+ pharmaceutical biology, textile and clothing, and food and beverage industries compressed by 4BP, 15BP, and 4BP respectively, while the credit spreads of AA+ non - bank finance and leisure services industries widened by 6BP [3]. - **Urban investment bonds**: The long - term credit spreads of urban investment bonds over 10 years compressed significantly this week, while the spreads of other maturities fluctuated by no more than 1BP. In terms of regions, the credit spread of AA urban investment bonds in Yunnan compressed by 11BP, and the fluctuations of credit spreads of urban investment bonds in other regions and ratings were within 3BP [42][44]. - **Industrial bonds**: The overall change in industrial credit spreads this week was not significant, and the change range of spreads with different maturities and ratings was within 5BP [48]. - **Bank capital bonds**: The credit spread of 5Y AA+ bank secondary capital bonds compressed by 5BP this week, and the fluctuations of credit spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds with other maturities and ratings were within 2BP [51]. 4. This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - There were 7 bond implicit ratings downgraded for 5 issuers this week. China Yintai Investment Co., Ltd. had 3 bond implicit ratings downgraded, and the other issuers included China Water Resources and Hydropower First Engineering Bureau Co., Ltd., PowerChina Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., Liaoning Kangping County Zhonghe Rural Credit Micro - loan Co., Ltd., and Jilin Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. [4][54]. 5. Investment Recommendations - This week, the central bank achieved a net investment of 434 billion yuan through open - market operations. As of Friday's close, DR001 closed at 1.30%, down from 1.5% at the beginning of the week. Overall, except for the relatively large fluctuations in the credit spreads of AA+ non - bank finance, leisure services, and textile and clothing industries, the fluctuations of credit spreads in other industries and ratings were within 5BP. Considering the current situation of credit spreads and the support from the opening of amortized open - end bond funds in the next six months, investors are advised to pay appropriate attention to investment opportunities in 3 - 5Y general credit bonds and secondary perpetual bonds [56][57].

股债定价各有独立逻辑，定价的结果或均偏向止盈。 投资要点： 市 场 策 略 周 报 股弱债不强，意味着什么 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(研究助理) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123090079 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 区间震荡行情延续 2025.11.22 美元流动性收紧何时缓解 2025.11.18 大行短端买入力度减弱 2025.11.18 本轮移仓有何特征和机会 20251117 2025.11.17 大行融出回落，存单发行提升，6M 期限最多 2025.11.17 请务必阅读正文之后 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Bond Investment Strategy Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond investment strategy for the year, particularly in the context of low interest rate expectations and limited downward space for both long-term (10-year government bonds) and short-term (1-year time deposits) rates [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The current market has low expectations for interest rate cuts in the short term, which limits the downward movement of both long and short-term interest rates [2][3]. 2. **Investment Strategy for Year-End**: Investors should focus on institutional allocation intentions and the performance of the equity market. An increase in institutional allocation may compress the spread between government bonds and policy bank bonds [1][3]. 3. **Credit Bonds vs. Government Bonds**: The spread between credit bonds and policy bank bonds is thin, while the spread between credit bonds and government bonds is wider. Short-term credit bonds are positioned low, but there is still room for three to five-year credit bonds [4][5]. 4. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The monetary policy is expected to maintain a loose growth-oriented approach next year, with limited impact from the current tightening of liquidity. The probability of easing measures this year is low, but the central bank may prepare for policy easing in Q1 next year [6][7]. 5. **Portfolio Construction**: For absolute return portfolios, a defensive stance with slightly lower duration is recommended, while relative return portfolios should seize opportunities such as the compression of spreads between policy bank bonds and government bonds [7][8]. 6. **Short-term vs. Long-term Strategies**: For short-term trading, focus on mid-term policy bank bonds due to clear returns. For long-term holding, consider 10-year secondary capital bonds, but be aware of their weaker liquidity [8][9]. 7. **Spread Compression Opportunities**: There are notable opportunities for spread compression between policy bank bonds and government bonds, which investors should monitor for potential profits [10][11]. 8. **Selection of Policy Bank Bonds**: Investors are advised to choose the main bond 215 over the new bond 220 for 10-year policy bank bonds due to liquidity considerations [11]. 9. **Changes in Investment Strategy**: Recent recommendations have shifted towards a more cautious approach as the year-end approaches, adjusting portfolios to mitigate risks associated with potential market volatility [14]. Other Important Considerations - The impact of new redemption regulations and changes in fund buying power for policy bank bonds should be closely monitored, as these factors will influence market trends at year-end and into next year [6][7]. - The use of hedging strategies, such as constructing combinations of 5-year secondary capital bonds with futures, can help mitigate risks and enhance returns [13].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 发债企业舆情及点评 淮安宏信票据逾期异议申请！流动性压力再论断 涉及发行人：淮安市宏信国有资产投资管理有限公司 2025年11月7日，淮安市宏信国有资产投资管理有限公司（简称"公司"）被列入上海票据交易所披露的承兑人逾期名单，票据逾期余额200.00万元。近期 公司就上述逾期事项向上海票据交易所发布异议申请公告：因"票据已冻结，无法应答"，导致公司无法进行兑付，发生票据逾期200.00万元。公司已收集 票面信息、付款失败截屏、法院冻结通知书作为申请附件。向申请上海票据交易所协助完成票据逾期异议处理。 邦得点评 涉及发行人：常德农村商业银行股份有限公司 2025年前三季度，公司实现营业收入5亿元，同比下滑17.59%，净利润0.02亿元，同比下滑49.64%，资本充足率、一级资本充足率、核心一级资本充足率 分别为8.08%、6.71%、6.71%。 邦得点评 常德农村商业银行股份有限公司（简称"常德农商行"或"公司"）为地方国有背景区域性中小农商行，第一大股东为常德市德源产业投资有限公司，持股比 例9.80%，前五大股东均为当地国企，国企合计持股比例超过三成，整 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-11-17 近期研究报告 《通胀或进入温和修复阶段———— 2026 年展望系列一》 - 2025.11.14 固收专题 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340124010004 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 二永债供给缩量新常态 ——2026 年展望系列二 20251114 2025 年，四大行顺利满足 TLAC 第一阶段 TLAC 要求，本年度二永债 发行总量和结构情况如何，2026 年发行量如何测算？本文对此进行 详细梳理。 ⚫ 2025 年回顾：发行人结构变化较大，净融资额减少较多 2025 年发行量整体或将微降，国有大行、城商行发行或略增，股 份行、农商行减少较多。2025 年以来，二永债合计发行 1.37 万亿元， 按照月均发行量推断，今年二永债发行量同比去年或将微降。分银行 类型看，国有大行和城商行发行进度较上年较快，年度发行量或将小 幅增加。股份行、农商行发行进度明显慢于上年，年度发行量或将 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests that in the absence of strong expectations for short-term interest rate cuts, both long-term government bond yields and short-term deposit rates are unlikely to decline significantly. The market currently does not anticipate easing of short-term funds or a reduction in LPR [1][8][37] - It is recommended to focus on two strategies for portfolio construction: 1. Opt for slightly lower duration for defensive positioning, waiting for a rate adjustment of around 5 basis points before considering extending duration; 2. Maintain a market-neutral or slightly longer duration stance, with risk exposure suggested to be placed in active bonds where spreads can compress, such as government bonds and ultra-long government bonds [1][8][40] Group 2 - For bond selection, the report emphasizes prioritizing long-term interest rate bonds, particularly focusing on 250215. If there is a higher frequency demand for duration adjustment, 25T6 should be considered. For higher yield bonds like 25T5 and 25T3, attention should gradually decrease as spreads compress further [2][10][12] - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes that the spread between 3-5 year credit bonds and government bonds is already low, indicating limited room for further compression. It is suggested to focus on mid-term government bonds for short-term capital gains, while mid to long-term credit bonds may offer better value for long-term holding [3][13] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current overall IRR level of government bond futures is slightly higher than the funding rate, with most futures contracts being relatively expensive compared to cash bonds. The strategy of focusing on the compression of spreads between government bonds and government-backed bonds is recommended [4][14] - The report highlights that the bond market has maintained a volatile trend, with government bonds showing stronger performance. Despite weak financial and economic data in October, interest rates have not significantly declined, and the market sentiment towards bonds remains cautious [15][20]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251115 二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20251110-20251114） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251110-20251114）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行二级资本 债 1 只，发行规模为 20.00 亿元。发行年限为 10Y；发行人性质为其他 国有企业；主体评级为 AA；发行人地域为福建省。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251110-20251114）二级资本债周成交量合计约 1702 亿元，较 上周减少 158 亿元，成交量前三个券分别为 25 恒丰二级资本债 01 （102.49 亿元）、25 农行二级资本债 03A(BC)（98.16 亿元）和 25 工行 二级资本债 03BC（55.80 亿元）。 分发行主体地域来看，成交量前三为北京市、山东省和上海市，分别约 为 1136 亿元、126 亿元和 90 亿元。 从到期收益率角度来看，截至 11 月 14 日，5Y 二级资本债中评级 AAA-、 AA+、AA 级到期收益率较上周涨跌幅分别为：-2.71BP、-1.82BP ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The current A-share market resembles the early stages of the 2020-2021 bull market, indicating a slow bull phase driven by strategic funds, similar to the role of foreign capital in early 2020 [1][11] - The market is expected to follow a structural "innovation bull" trend in 2026, as new funds and improved performance from domestic institutions emerge [1][11] - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 shows a mild recovery driven by policy support, with significant similarities to the early 2020 recovery phase [1][11] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The bond market remains in a box range, with the central bank maintaining liquidity through reverse repos and net purchases of government bonds [2][12] - The introduction of new redemption fee regulations is anticipated to cause volatility in the bond market, but a cautious optimism is advised as the impact will be spread over time [2][12] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to continue a narrow range of fluctuations, with potential entry points if rates rise sharply due to new regulations [2][12] Group 3: Industry Insights - Aojie Technology is a rare domestic wireless communication baseband chip manufacturer, focusing on four main product categories, including baseband chips and ASICs [6][22] - The company is in a technology accumulation phase, with expectations of turning profitable as technology matures and product lines expand [6][22] - The market for cellular IoT is projected to enter a rapid expansion phase over the next six years, driven by advancements in 5G technology [6][22] Group 4: Company Performance - Baiji Shenzhou's core product, Zebutinib, is experiencing significant growth, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 revised upwards, indicating strong profit potential [7][9] - The company is expected to achieve rapid profit release in the coming years due to scale effects and improved cost management [7][9] - Baiji Shenzhou is positioned as a leading domestic innovative drug company, with a strong global commercialization capability [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Bank has approved two significant bond issuance proposals during its recent board meeting, indicating a strategic move to enhance its capital structure and support financial operations [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Proposals - The bank plans to issue 7 billion yuan in subordinated capital bonds with a 10-year maturity and a redemption option at the end of the fifth year [1] - A total of 10 billion yuan is planned for the issuance of special financial bonds and ordinary financial bonds, with a cap of 3 billion yuan for technology innovation bonds and 3 billion yuan for green financial bonds [1] - Both proposals will be submitted for shareholder meeting approval, with the final issuance plan subject to regulatory approval [1]