21世纪经济报道记者 余纪昕 2026年新年伊始，地方中小银行增资的脚步继续加快。1月，多家城商行、农商行及农信社增加注册资本的方案即获监管批复， 呈现出多点开花的态势。 开年首周即获密集批复 从参与主体看，地方中小银行的投资方构成正更趋多元化。2026年1月开年，除传统的区域内机构入股（如江西农商联合银行投 资省内多家农商行）外，地方财政力量（如雅安经开区财政金融局）和大型国有企业也更多成为重要角色。 以青海银行为例，同日披露的批复文件进一步明确，同意该行募集股份6.48亿股，并核准西部矿业（601168）集团有限公司、青 海省交通控股集团有限公司的股东资格。文件同时强调，该行需严格审查股东入股资金来源，确保为自有资金，并加强股权管 理、优化股权结构，完善公司治理以防范风险。 青海西宁农村商业银行则由五矿（青海）特色产业投资基金入股，体现了"产业资本+地方金融"深度融合、服务实体经济的清晰 导向。通过构建多元化的股权结构，不仅增强了金融机构的资本厚度，也为导入产业资源、优化公司治理创造了有利条件。 发债、增资并行，银行加速夯实资本实力 在增资扩股外，发行二级资本债、永续债等资本工具也是银行"补血"的重要手段 ...

中经记者 秦玉芳 广州报道 盘古智库高级研究员余丰慧也指出，随着经济环境的不确定性增加，银行业的风险水平也相应上升，这 使得监管部门更加重视银行的稳健经营与风险管理。对于城商行而言，增加注册资本是提高资本充足 率、增强风险抵御能力的重要手段之一。 "此外，在当前利率市场化加速推进、市场竞争加剧的背景下，拥有更雄厚的资本基础有助于城商行扩 大业务规模、优化资产负债结构，并在激烈的市场竞争中占据有利地位。因此，地方银行资本补充显得 尤为紧迫。"余丰慧表示。 值得关注的是，除了注册资本变更之外，永续债、二级资本债等也是银行补充资本的重要工具。据 Wind数据统计，2025年1月1日至2026年1月6日，共有近60家银行发行永续债71只，发行规模达8250亿 元。其中，城商银行发行永续债补充资本的积极性持续上升。 不过，曾刚也指出，部分城商行集中推进注册资本变更，深刻反映出其他资本补充工具通道受阻的现实 困境。一方面，永续债、二级资本债等需要较高市场信用评级和投资者认可，但多数城商行主体评级偏 低（AA级以下占比超60%），市场发行成本高企；另一方面，审批周期长且不确定性高，监管部门和 交易商协会对中小银行债券发行审 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to recover after the holiday. The mild implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations and the alleviation of banks' institutional indicator pressure may increase the allocation power and drive the bond market to pick up [5][8][14]. - In January, the bond market may remain volatile under supply shocks. The increased supply of government bonds and the potential credit surge at the beginning of the year may crowd out the allocation power and increase capital demand, leading to greater capital fluctuations [5][14]. - After late January, the recovery of the bond market may be smoother. The impact of supply is rhythmic rather than trend - setting, and the overall financing demand is not strong [5][14]. - It is still believed that the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to reach a new low in the first half of the year [5][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Pre - holiday Bond Market Performance - In the last week before the holiday, the bond market weakened again, with interest - rate bonds falling and credit bonds strengthening. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 1.0bps and 4.4bps to 1.85% and 2.27% respectively, and short - end interest rates also increased. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - second - tier capital bonds declined slightly, and the yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit dropped 1.0bps to 1.63% [1][8] Factors Contributing to Post - holiday Bond Market Recovery - The new public - fund fee regulations implemented on the last day before the holiday are significantly milder than the draft for comments. It gives partial exemptions on bond - fund redemption fees, eases concerns about the new redemption rules, relieves the redemption pressure on bond funds, and helps the bond market recover [1][8][9] - In the new year, the pressure on banks' indicators eases. According to the final revised document of the Basel framework SPR31, the parallel upward shift in the bank book interest - rate shock scenario is adjusted from 250bps to 225bps, and banks will also get new indicator spaces at the beginning of the year, with the indicator pressure seasonally decreasing. This will enhance the overall allocation power and assist the bond - market recovery [2][9] Factors Causing Pressure on the January Bond Market - Supply - side factors: The issuance of government bonds will start in the new year. The 26 regions that have announced their issuance plans plan to issue 2.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter, lower than the 2.5 - trillion - yuan plan in 2025, but the issuance rhythm is more front - loaded, with 8095 billion yuan planned for January, compared with 3713 billion yuan in January 2025. Also, a 30 - year Treasury bond will be newly issued on January 14th, and a 10 - year Treasury bond will be re - issued on January 9th [2][10] - Credit factors: Credit may surge at the beginning of the year. The proportion of first - quarter credit in the whole - year credit increased from 36.2% in 2020 to 59.8% in 2025, and that of January increased from 17.0% in 2020 to 31.4% in 2025. It may rise to 35% or higher in 2026. The concentrated credit release at the beginning of the year may squeeze bank funds and reduce the allocation power to the bond market. It may also increase capital demand and cause greater short - term capital fluctuations if the central bank fails to inject enough funds [3][11] Rhythmic Nature of Supply Impact - The possible surge in January's credit and social financing is not due to an increase in financing demand. The credit - demand index in the third quarter of 2025 was 52.8%, remaining at a low level for two consecutive quarters, and current credit demand is not strong [4][13] - In 2026, fiscal expansion will be moderate, and the year - on - year increase in government bonds will be significantly lower than in 2025. The concentrated issuance in January means less issuance space later, so the impact is rhythmic rather than trend - setting, and the impact on the bond market will gradually subside after the peak in late January [4][13][14]

普信债久期明显缩短： 截至 12 月 31 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 1.58 年、2.19 年，商业银行债中，二级资本债、银行永续债 以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.01 年、3.31 年、1.73 年，其中一般商金债处于较低历史水平，二级资本 债处于较高历史水平；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分别为 1.41 年、 1.43 年、3.06 年、1.35 年，久期较上周均有缩短，证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位。 品种显微镜： 城投债：城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 1.65 年附近。其中，陕西省级城投债久期拉长至 4.88 年，河北省级城投债 成交久期缩短至 0.61 年附近。同时，福建区县级、甘肃省级城投债久期历史分位数已逾 90%，甘肃省级城投债久期逼 近 2021 年以来最高。 产业债：产业债加权平均成交期限较上周有所缩短，总体处于 1.84 年附近，基础化工行业成交久期拉长至 2.33 年， 食品饮料行业成交久期缩短至 0.80 年。此外，房地产行业成交久期处于较低历史分位，医药生物行业位于较高历史 分位。 商业银行债：一般商金债久期 ...

收益来源方面，组合票息回升居多，年初配置与交易空间值得关注。二级、城投超长型、二永久期及永续债下沉策略 2026 年年初的票息空间较大，其当前年化票息较 2025 年低点距离均在 30bp 以上，特别是中长端二永债重仓组合节 后有概率继续走修复行情。另外，永续债久期、城投哑铃型策略票息年化在 2.18%-2.19%左右，也有一定配置价值。 二、信用策略超额收益跟踪 近四周，城投哑铃型策略超额收益波动走低。具体来看，二级债下沉、永续债久期及二级债子弹型组合的累计超额收 益分别达到 1.8bp、1.3bp、-0.4bp，其余中长端策略累计超额处于负区间。城投久期、哑铃型组合累计超额收益仍在 -13bp 附近，但随着投资者一致缩短久期，长债从最初的抛售超跌转为企稳，哑铃型策略较子弹型超额收益的波动降 低，这对于超长端而言或许是一个底部信号。 从策略期限来看，金融债重仓策略跑赢中长端基准。短端方面，本周存单策略、城投下沉策略收益均不及基准；中长 端方面，除城投久期、哑铃型及券商债久期策略外，其余组合超额收益回正，其中，二级债子弹型、永续债下沉组合 超额达到 5.6bp、5bp，表现较为亮眼；超长端策略整体超额收益在券 ...

Macro Strategy - The report suggests that despite expectations of a slowdown in marginal fiscal funding for 2026, fiscal spending may still exceed expectations due to two main factors: a rebound in prices leading to increased fiscal revenue and a significant amount of fiscal "surplus" carried over from 2025. Specifically, a 1.8 percentage point increase in PPI could generate approximately 260 billion yuan in additional tax revenue, equivalent to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the deficit ratio. Additionally, the fiscal surplus may exceed 500 billion yuan, potentially enhancing the growth rate of general public budget expenditure by about 2.6 percentage points [1][19]. Industry Insights Electronic Industry - The report highlights that the domestic computing power industry is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in 2026, with domestic computing chip leaders likely entering a performance realization phase. The demand for domestic GPUs is anticipated to benefit from capacity releases due to advanced process expansions. The competition among domestic computing chip participants for market share is expected to drive the importance of AI ASIC service providers within the supply chain. Key recommendations include companies like Cambricon and Shengke Communication [9]. 3D DRAM - The report indicates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for 3D DRAM, driven by the rapid increase in storage demand from AI hardware deployment. The technology is expected to support various applications, including robotics, AIoT, and automotive sectors. The report recommends companies such as GigaDevice and Beijing Junzheng as key players in this space [10]. Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is projected to see improvements in both liabilities and assets, with significant upward valuation potential. The demand for insurance remains strong, and the shift towards dividend insurance is expected to optimize liability costs. The report notes that the current valuation of the insurance sector is at historical lows, suggesting a "buy" rating for the industry [12]. Environmental Industry - The report emphasizes the value of the waste incineration sector, driven by declining capital expenditures and improving operating cash flows. The acceleration of national subsidies is expected to enhance cash flow, with projections indicating that the sector's dividend potential could increase significantly as capital expenditures normalize [16]. Computer Industry - The report discusses the intersection of state-owned enterprise reform and local revenue enhancement, predicting that 2026 will see intensified management of local state-owned enterprises, leading to accelerated capital operations [13][14]. Space Computing - The report identifies the space computing industry as a rapidly evolving field, crucial for addressing global computing resource bottlenecks. It highlights the strategic importance of this sector and recommends focusing on companies with technological advantages in key areas [15]. Green Bonds - The report tracks the issuance of green bonds, noting an increase in issuance and a decrease in trading volume in the secondary market. This reflects the growing interest in sustainable finance and the potential for investment opportunities in this area [4][8]. Capital Market Trends - The report outlines trends in the capital markets, including the performance of various commodities and the impact of macroeconomic factors on pricing. It notes that the copper market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints and demand fluctuations, while aluminum prices are also on the rise due to production capacity increases [11]. AI and Technology - The report forecasts that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major tech companies expected to launch innovative products. The integration of AI into consumer electronics is anticipated to create new market opportunities [9][18].

苏商银行特约研究员高政扬对《证券日报》记者表示，上市银行赎回优先股，核心是主动优化资本成本 与资本结构。其赎回高息优先股，既能降低付息成本、缓解盈利压力，又能顺应监管要求置换低成本工 具，进一步优化资本构成。 赎回动力增强 近期，多家银行密集披露优先股赎回方案。据《证券日报》记者梳理，12月份以来，已有5家银行先后 完成或披露优先股赎回相关安排。叠加此前工商银行、中国银行、兴业银行及宁波银行的赎回操作， 2025年以来，已有9家银行赎回优先股。 资本补充呈现三大趋势 田利辉认为，银行集中赎回优先股，是行业在利率周期变化与监管导向下，主动开展的资本结构优化升 级。这一现象背后，折射出鲜明的行业发展趋势：银行业正从过往的规模粗放扩张转向精细化的资本管 理阶段，经营重心也更加聚焦于降低融资成本、提升运营效率，资本管理模式亦从被动达标满足监管要 求转向主动优化适配发展需求。 中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏告诉《证券日报》记者，赎回优先股不仅能有效降低银行整体资本成 本、改善净息差水平，还能进一步提升核心一级资本充足率，增强自身抗风险能力。同时，该操作可释 放银行财务空间，为后续资本规划预留更大弹性，也能向市场传递出银行 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 29 日 3-10Y 二永债配置价值凸显 ——资本补充工具月报（11 月 1 日-11 月 30 日） 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 张一帆 zhangyifan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 二永债一级发行方面，11 月供给环比及同比上升。11 月，各类型银行共发行 13 只 二级资本债和 13 只永续债，合计 2683 亿元，较上月增长 2123 亿元，同比增加 1037 亿元。截至 11 月 30 日，银行二永债尚有 1.44 万亿元额度待发行。11 月净融资规 模环比及同比均有所增加。具体来看，11 月银行二永债净融资 936 亿元，环比增加 729.5 亿元，同比增加 331 亿元。结构上看，二级资本债和永续债净融资分别为 750 亿元和 186 亿元。前 11 个月二永债净融资规模为 4229.6 亿元，同比减少 1302.9 亿元；其中二级资本债净融资规模为 2214 ...

Group 1 - The report identifies two main consensus expectations for the bond market in 2026: a generally "bearish" outlook and a relative safety in short-term bonds under bearish conditions [1][6][9] - The bearish outlook is supported by three key points: alignment of interest rate trends with nominal growth, historical patterns of interest rate increases following bottoming out, and risks of supply-demand imbalances in long-term bonds [1][6][9] - The relative safety of short-term bonds is attributed to the central bank's ample liquidity and stable funding prices, as well as a steady expansion in wealth management products favoring short-term allocations [1][9] Group 2 - The report highlights the difficulty of simultaneously achieving both consensus expectations, noting that historical transitions between bull and bear markets typically involve significant widening of short-term spreads [2][11][13] - Current pricing structures show a divergence in spreads, with long-term spreads reflecting a "bearish" valuation while short-term spreads remain at "bullish" levels, indicating a contradiction in market risk pricing [16][20] - The report suggests that the market's strategy preferences are influenced by past performance, leading to a potential extreme valuation of short-term assets at the beginning of the next year [3][21][28] Group 3 - The report warns of the risk of "overextended odds" in short-term bonds, which could lead to a market correction if liquidity, regulatory, or credit risks arise [31][35] - Historical data indicates that current short-term credit spreads have room to widen, suggesting a potential risk if they approach historical extremes [31][35] - The report concludes that the observed patterns in early-year market behavior often replicate previous dominant strategies, which could compress short-term spreads further, but also highlights the historical tendency for short-term spreads to widen during market corrections [4][35]

◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251222-20251226）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行二级资本 债 8 只，发行规模为 531.50 亿元。发行年限为 10Y；发行人性质为地方 国有企业、民营企业、其他企业、中央金融企业；主体评级为 AA+、 AA-、A+、AAA；发行人地域为四川省、浙江省、江苏省、北京市、湖 南省。 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251227 二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20251222-20251226） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251222-20251226）二级资本债周成交量合计约 2729 亿元，较 上周减少 10 亿元，成交量前三个券分别为 25 中行二级资本债 03A(BC) （194.10 亿元）、25 建行二级资本债 03BC（96.91 亿元）和 25 中行二 级资本债 01BC（83.04 亿元）。 分发行主体地域来看，成交量前三为北京市、上海市和广东省，分别约 为 2171 亿元、193 亿元和 100 亿元。 从到期收益率角度来看，截至 12 月 26 日，5Y 二级资 ...